Last week we promised reasons to be cheerful for the cement industry. We only have one to offer this week but it's a good one. At present three Indian cement companies are on sale: Lafarge India, Reliance Cements and Jaiprakash Associates. If these sales complete then it represents an opportunity for the Indian cement industry to reorganise itself and stride forward when growth recovers.
Lafarge India upped its sales proposal to the Competition Commission of India (CCI) on 6 January 2016 to sell its entire 11Mt/yr portfolio. Originally as part of the LafargeHolcim merger agreements the CCI asked Lafarge to sell 5.2Mt/yr of production capacity in Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand in eastern India. However the deal was reliant on the original buyer, Birla Corporation, securing limestone mining rights. Birla failed to do so. Now Lafarge India has decided to sell everything instead. Naturally, following its Euro8bn spending spree in 2015 CRH has been linked to the sale by Indian media.
Then following press speculation Reliance Infrastructure confirmed to the Bombay Stock Exchange on 11 January 2016 that it was at an 'advanced stage of discussions with potential buyers for divesting the cement business of the company.' Reliance's cement arm, Reliance Cement, holds three cement plants in Maihar in Madhya Pradesh, Kundanganj in Uttar Pradesh and Butibori in Maharashtra with a total production capacity of 5.8Mt/yr. In addition to this, the company is also developing a 5Mt/yr cement plant at Wani in Maharashtra. The Reliance sale has been reported upon since early 2015. The difference this time is that Reliance responded to local press reports that it was about to sell to Birla Corporation or a couple of other private equity firms.
Finally, the third sale concerns Jaiprakash Associates' on-going attempts to sell its remaining cement assets to service its debts. Jaiprakash Associates cement subsidiary, Jaypee Cement, holds eight plants in India with a cement production capacity of 11Mt/yr. In addition it holds six cement grinding plants with a capacity of 10.7Mt/yr. Despite reported attempts to sell the entire division in one Jaypee has actually ended up selling its cement assets in a piecemeal fashion one or two at a time. The most recent sale being announced this week is to sell its Bhilai Jaypee Cement to Shree Cement. This follows other sales to HeidelbergCement and UltraTech in 2015.
None of these sales are new exactly but the combined production capacity of these plants comes to just under 28Mt/yr. This represents 9% of India's total national cement production capacity of 310Mt/yr. Any player somehow able to weasel their way into striking a deal for all of these plants would immediately become one of the country's biggest producers.
It would definitely be a case of buyer beware though. Credit agency ICRA recently reported that it expects that cement demand growth will be a 'modest' 4% in the 2015 - 2016 financial year before picking up in the following year. This follows poor growth in cement demand in the first half of 2015 and even declines in March and April 2015. ICRA also expected the country capacity utilisation to drop to 70% in the 2016 financial year, down from 77% in the 2012 financial year. That 7% drop in the utilisation is awfully close to the 9% of Indian national production capacity that the cement assets currently on sale from Lafarge India, Reliance Cement and Jaypee Cement. Unsurprisingly, the buyers of Indian cement assets have been picking and choosing their plants one-by-one so far.
