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US President Donald Trump threatened tariffs on imports from Canada, China, Mexico and the European Union this week. Tariffs to Canada and Mexico were announced on 1 February 2025 and then paused for a month to allow for negotiations. Ones to China have been implemented. Tariffs to the European Union have been proposed but nothing has happened yet. What does this mean for the cement sector?

Graph 1: Imports of cement and clinker to the US. Source: USGS. Estimated data for 2024.

The data suggests that whacking 25% tariffs on cement imports from Canada and Mexico would have an impact. The US imported 26.5Mt of cement and clinker in 2023. Based on United States Geological Survey (USGS) data from January to October 2024, imports in 2024 have fallen by 8% year-on-year but they still represent a large chunk of consumption. Türkiye has been the biggest source of imports over the last five years but Canada has been the second biggest supplier. Together with Mexico, it provided over a quarter of imports in 2023. A similar share is expected in 2024. Greece, a country in the EU, has also been present in the top five importing countries to the US during this time.

The Portland Cement Association (PCA) reinforced this view. In a carefully worded statement it took pains to point out alignment with the intentions behind the tariffs, such as appreciating that the administration was open to negotiation and appeared to be flexible. However, it warned that the moves could adversely affect energy and national security, delay infrastructure projects and raise costs. It pointed out the import share from Canada and Mexico, adding that this represented nearly 7% of the US’ cement consumption. It noted which states were the main entry points for cement imports from the two countries. Finally, it highlighted the high level of consumption (36%) that imports from Canada might account for in northern states such as New York, Washington and so on. Meanwhile, Mexico’s National Chamber of Cement (CANACEM) warned that the proposed actions might trigger a ‘competitiveness crisis’ in the US.

Holcim’s CEO, by contrast, nonchalantly told Reuters that he didn’t expect any impact by tariffs on his business. Miljan Gutovic described the group’s US operations as a local business with production happening in the country and equipment and spare parts all being sourced locally. This optimistic view is likely to be influenced by the company’s impending spin-off of its US business. The listing in the US remains scheduled for the first half of 2025 with no complications expected from tariffs.

Clearly, implementing tariffs on imports of cement and clinker from Canada and Mexico could cause a shortage in the US in the short term. This, in turn, could lead to higher prices for consumers in the US. This potential effect would be pronounced in border regions that are reliant on imports. It is worth noting that a number of production lines in both Mexico and Canada have previously been mobilised to meet the export market to the US. These lines would likely be mothballed if tariffs were to be implemented, unless they could find other markets. In the medium term though, as the World Cement Association (WCA) pointed out this week, the world produces too much cement. So it looks likely that the US cement market would adjust to a new equilibrium. Taxing imports from the EU would have a similar effect. Although it seems like it would be less pronounced for the US cement market unless it was in conjunction with tariffs to Canada and Mexico. It would certainly be bad news for cement producers in Greece.

Cement producers in the US look set to benefit from tariffs as demand for their products and prices could increase. There is a risk that too sudden a change to the import market could cause adverse market effects through shortages. Many of these companies are multinational groups with headquarters in foreign countries. However, the strength of the US market compared to elsewhere has prompted some of these businesses to become more ‘American’ through listing in the US or focusing merger and acquisition activity in North America.

At this point we’re stuck in a half-way house place where import tariffs have been threatened and negotiations are pending. The relatively muted stock market reaction to the tariffs and Trump’s swiftness in enacting pauses suggest that it is brinkmanship by the US administration. If this situation continues for any length of time then it will likely have an effect all of its own. In which case don’t expect any export-focused investment by cement companies in Canada and Mexico any time soon.

Indonesia: Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) chair Lilik Unggul Raharjo has called for a more ‘robust’ approach to production overcapacity in the cement sector. In a statement by the ASI he lobbied for the government to strengthen its ban on the construction of new plants, according to the Jakarta Post newspaper and Kontan. At present the moratorium applies to obtaining licences via the country’s integrated electronic licensing system (OSS). Lilik also requested a better legal framework to protect the industry.

The government says it is using the block on investment in new cement plants to support the local sector. Restrictions are in place for regions such as Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan and Sulawesi. However, the government is ‘open’ to new plants being built in areas that have no existing units including Papua and Maluku.

ASI data shows that cement sales reached 77Mt in 2024 with a capacity utilisation rate of 65%. Domestic sales fell by just under 1% year-on-year to 65Mt in 2024. Exports grew by 10% to 12Mt. The ASI expects domestic sales of cement to increase by up to 2% in 2025.

Spain: Cement consumption in Spain rose by 3% in 2024 after two consecutive years of decline, reaching 14.9Mt, according to the latest data from Oficemen.

The figure represents an increase of 0.42Mt compared to 2023, though remains similar to 2021-2022 levels. Oficemen projects 5% growth for 2025.

Alan Svaiter, Oficemen chair, said "These figures confirm the positive progression in cement consumption during the second half of 2025, following a challenging start with negative numbers".

Consumption remained behind that of 2023 until October 2024, when it showed 1% growth, before reaching the final 3% year-end figure.

Canada: Cement exports declined by 2% year-on-year to 4.4Mt in 2024, according to a report by IndexBox. In terms of value, exports reached US$534m in 2024.

The US remained the sole export destination, accounting for 100% of total exports, according to the report. Portland cement represented 85% of total shipments at 3.7Mt.

Saudi Arabia: Cement sales increased by 12% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching 14.87Mt, Arab News reports. Sales were primarily driven by domestic demand, which accounted for 96% of total sales. Exports contributed the remaining 4%, according to data from Al-Yamama Cement. For the full year, cement sales grew by 3.7% to 51.2Mt.

Al-Yamama Cement led the domestic market in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a 13% share and sales of 1.83Mt, up by 22% year-on-year. Qassim Cement, after acquiring Hail Cement, held an 11% share with 1.63Mt of sales. Yanbu Cement, Southern Cement, and Al Jouf Cement followed.

During the same period, Saudi Cement dominated in exports with 0.49Mt, representing 80% of total shipments and a 71% year-on-year increase. Clinker production grew by 7% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 14.9Mt, while clinker exports fell by 28% to 1.15Mt.

Amr Nader, CEO of cement consultancy A3&Co, said “These figures may not fully align with the anticipated surge in demand from ambitious infrastructure projects. Megaprojects such as NEOM, the Red Sea project, and FIFA World Cup-related developments require vast quantities of construction materials. The maximum anticipated demand in the next five years is 78Mt/yr.”

Vietnam: Cement production rose by 3.5% year-on-year to 184.2Mt in 2024, according to the latest data from the General Statistics Office.

In December 2024, cement output reached 17.2Mt, up by 10% year-on-year. The revised figure for 2023 shows production reached 120Mt, down 4.5% year-on-year.

Morocco: Cement sales rose by 9% year-on-year to 13.7Mt in 2024, according to the Ministry of National Territory and Urban Planning, Housing and City Policy.

Distribution-targeted deliveries reached 7.88Mt, based on data from members of the Professional Association of Cement Manufacturers (APC).

Pakistan: December 2024 saw mixed results for cement despatches, according to data published by the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association. Local despatches declined by 5% year-on-year, falling to 3.37Mt from 3.54Mt in December 2023. Overall, total cement despatches for December 2024 stood at 4.15Mt, up by 2% from 4.06Mt year-on-year. For the first half of the fiscal year, total despatches decreased by 4% to 22.9Mt. Domestic despatches saw a significant drop of 10%, totalling 18.1Mt. Exports, however, witnessed a 32% increase, reaching 4.81Mt during this period. In December 2024, exports reached 0.78Mt, a 49% year-on-year increase from 0.53Mt in December 2023.

Türkiye: Türkiye's global cement exports contracted by 6.4% from January to November 2024, totalling US$4bn, according to the Trade Ministry. However, November 2024 saw a modest increase of 0.3% in cement exports, amounting to US$346m. From November 2023 to November 2024, the total value of cement product exports reached US$4.3bn.

Türkiye's cement exports to Iran decreased by 42% year-on-year, totalling nearly US$11.7m during the same 11-month period. Despite this decline, exports in November 2024 rose slightly by 1.5% year-on-year, reaching over US$1.6m.

Spain: According to the latest data from Oficemen, cement consumption in Spain recorded an average increase of 1.8% in 2024, after rising by 4.3% in November 2024. The figures align with the 1.3% growth observed from January to October 2024. November's boost brought the monthly consumption to 1.34Mt nearly 56,000t more than in November 2023. Despite a 41% growth in exports in November 2024, adding 154,387t, an 8.8% year-on-year decline. From January to November 2024, Spain exported 4.54Mt of cement, 0.44Mt or 9.7% less than the same period in 2023.

Aniceto Zaragoza, general director of Oficemen, said "These positive figures are in line with the forecasts we gave at the beginning of 2024, where we expected a moderate recovery towards the end of the year. With 11 months of data now available, it is not risky to predict that we will close the year with slight positive growth, as we anticipated in January 2024. This trend makes us look at 2025 with some optimism, expecting a more solid increase in consumption."