A lot has happened since the 4 April 2014 announcement that Lafarge and Holcim intend to become LafargeHolcim. There have been several related announcements from around the global cement industry this week, prompting some interesting discussion with respect to the future look of the industry.
Oyak Group, which operates a number of plants in Turkey, appears to be limbering up for LafargeHolcim-based acquisitions in the UK, the EU or Africa, with aims to become a regional player. Meanwhile, Lafarge has pulled out of talks regarding its proposed acquisition of the Cementos Portland Valderrivas (CPV) plant in Vallcarca, Spain, directly citing the merger as the reason for this. We have also seen Colombia's Cementos Argos purchase a grinding plant in French Guiana, which was jointly-owned by Lafarge and Holcim. Announced just a few days after the merger, this asset was presumably jettisoned in order to avoid future issues with local anti-monopoly authorities. Finally, ACC and Ambuja have announced that they would retain their separate identities in India after the merger.
This flurry of announcements is likely to be just the start of frenzied speculation as the competitors of Lafarge and Holcim work out what assets are most likely to be sold. So what about the multinationals, Cemex and HeidelbergCement?
Cemex certainly has cause for concern, weighed down by the debt that it took on in 2007 with the acquisition of Australia's Rinker. It is in a relatively weak position with respect to acquiring any LafargeHolcim divestments. Could it lose market share? HeidelbergCement, by contrast, has long extoled the virtues of its financial efficiency policies and its diverse and forward-looking geographical spread. It could snap up more strategic assets after the merger. While both of these multinationals will be wary of dealing with an enlarged competitor in LafargeHolcim, they have the opportunity to increase their market shares and both will move up one position in the global cement producer rankings.
It is likely to be the smaller players that have the most to gain from the shedding of LafargeHolcim's various assets, especially those that enjoy strong domestic markets and have cash at the ready. Oyak Group has already entered the ring but what if Nigeria's Dangote, Brazil's Votorantim, Colombia's Cementos Argos or Thailand's SCG go on a spending spree? Could one of these rise to become a new global cement multinational?
However, if we can expect a change anywhere it will be in Spain. Following reports in 2012 that Spanish cement production had crashed to its lowest levels since the 1960s jobs have been shed and profits have evaporated. In 2013 Holcim and Cemex agreed to combine all of their operations in Spain. Roughly, according to the Global Cement Directory 2014, cement production capacity in Spain breaks down as follows: CPV (23%), Cemex (18%), Lafarge (11%) and Holcim (10%). Letting the Cemex-Holcim deal happen, followed by the Lafarge-Holcim merger and the CPV Vallcarca purchase, would have led to a major headache for Spain's competition authorities, creating an entity with 43% production market share! Unsurprisingly the first casualty has been the CPV Vallcarca deal. Whatever happens, the next 18 months will be an interesting period for the global cement industry.
