Global Cement
Unmatached fuel flexibility with Pyrorotor - KHD
Online condition monitoring experts for proactive and predictive maintenance - DALOG
Cut your energy costs with our high-performance lubricants and services - Kluber Lubrication
Optimizing your cement plant. Empowering your team. CemAI - Cement Intelligence
  • Home
  • News
  • Conferences
  • Magazine
  • Directory
  • Reports
  • Members
  • Live
  • Login
  • Advertise
  • Knowledge Base
  • Alternative Fuels
  • Services
  • Jobs
  • Privacy & Cookie Policy
  • About
  • Register
  • Trial subscription
  • Contact
News What is fuelling US cement growth?

What is fuelling US cement growth?

Written by David Perilli, Global Cement 28 January 2015
  • Print

The Portland Cement Association (PCA) put out a positive forecast for residential housing in the US last week. PCA Chief Economist and Group Vice-President Edward J Sullivan announced that housing starts will increase by 20% to 1.2 million units in 2015 from around 950,000 units in 2014. Strong gains are also expected for 2016.

This is relevant because in previous forecasts growth has been pinned on residential construction demand where there was a lag in demand following the recession in 2008. The PCA has not said whether this improves on its last forecast from late 2014. At that time the US cement market in 2014 was expected to grow by 8% despite a late start to the building season and weaker than expected housing start figures. The latest release suggests that the PCA has become more optimistic about the number of houses being built.

Interestingly, Sullivan pointed out that the focus is on family homes, with high student debt levels excluding the millennial generation born in 1980 - 2000 and with the baby boomers now leaving the market. As an aside, it is worth mentioning that specifying millennials in relation to housing starts is pertinent outside the US also. In the UK, for example, age of first time house buyers has been steadily rising in recent years. This has implications for the construction market and the cement industry alike.

Back in the US, demographic trends are on the side of the cement producers, led by a rising population. Cement demand growth of around 8% is expected in 2015 and 2016. Forbes placed Houston, the location of last week's 2nd Global Well Cem Conference, as America's fastest-growing city. Census data show that it saw a population growth of 392,742 inhabitants in the metropolitan Houston area between 1 July 2010 and 1 July 2013. Put another way this amounted to an extra 10,909 people moving into town each month (!) during this period. That calls for a lot of cement as these people demand houses and infrastructure.

Unfortunately the fly in the ointment here is that the global price of oil has been falling since mid-2014 and Houston's growth is dependent on the oil industry and its associated industries. By extension the cement industry in Texas, the US's biggest producing state, is also vulnerable. Houston may be an extreme example but the PCA is already wondering what the implications of low oil prices will have on the US construction industry as a whole. To this end, Sullivan is set to forecast that short-term gains could be made in the housing market if the oil price stays low but it could have a negative effect if the low prices continue.

One question is whether the US housing market is already experiencing this boost yet. If it is, housing starts and cement production in 2014 may have been artificially stimulated by cheap oil. In this case cement production growth in the US over the next few years may be slower than expected. We'll have to wait and see what Sullivan predicts but in the meantime it might be worth delaying buying that nice new house in Houston.

Published in Analysis
Tagged under
  • GCW185
  • PCA
  • US

Register for the Global Cement Weekly email newsletter

Global Cement Weekly is Global Cement’s weekly email newsletter. Keep up to date with cement industry news, analysis, diary dates and news of people in the sector.

Register >

Related items

  • Holcim US inaugurates waste tyre processing plant at Alpena cement plant
  • HarbisonWalker International launches new branding
  • FLSmidth acquires Morse Rubber
  • Update on slag in the US, May 2023
  • Heidelberg Materials North America inaugurates expanded Port Canaveral slag cement plant and terminal
back to top
P84 HT filter bags ensure the best filtration performance - Evonik - Leading Beyond Chemistry
Original Services - Flender
“Chains
Cement industry - Reliable & cost saving lubricants - Creative value all along your process - TotalEnergies - Find out more
AI Modules - The Kima Process
Loesche - Innovative Engineering
Airscape - The new sealing standard for transfer points in conveying systems
“Register
Acquisition Cemex China CO2 concrete coronavirus Export France Germany Government grinding plant HeidelbergCement Holcim Import India Lafarge LafargeHolcim Mexico Nigeria Pakistan Plant Product Production Results Russia Sales Sustainability UK Upgrade US
« June 2023 »
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
      1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30    



Sign up for FREE to Global Cement Weekly
Global Cement LinkedIn
Global Cement Facebook
Global Cement Twitter
  • Home
  • News
  • Conferences
  • Magazine
  • Directory
  • Reports
  • Members
  • Live
  • Login
  • Advertise
  • Knowledge Base
  • Alternative Fuels
  • Services
  • Jobs
  • Privacy & Cookie Policy
  • About
  • Register
  • Trial subscription
  • Contact
  • Conferences & Webinars >>
  • Global Ash
  • Global CemBoards
  • Global CemCCUS
  • Global CemEnergy
  • Global CemFuels
  • Global CemPower
  • Global CemProcess
  • Global CemProducer
  • Global Cement Quality Control
  • Global CemTrans
  • Global ConChems
  • Global Concrete
  • Global FutureCem
  • Global Gypsum
  • Global GypSupply
  • Global Insulation
  • Global Slag
  • Global Synthetic Gypsum
  • Global Well Cem
  • African Cement
  • Asian Cement
  • American Cement
  • European Cement
  • Middle Eastern Cement
  • Magazine >>
  • Latest issue
  • Articles
  • Editorial programme
  • Contributors
  • Link
  • Awards
  • Back issues
  • Subscribe
  • Photography
  • Register for free copies
  • The Last Word
  • Websites >>
  • Global Gypsum
  • Global Slag
  • Global CemFuels
  • Global Concrete
  • Global Insulation
  • Pro Global Media
  • PRoIDS Online
  • Social >>
  • LinkedIn
  • Facebook
  • Twitter

© 2023 Pro Global Media Ltd. All rights reserved.