Displaying items by tag: Capacity

Vietnam: Vietnamese cement export growth is forecast to slow in 2021. The Viet Nam News newspaper has reported on research by SSI Research that expected exports to remain stable due to high infrastructure spending in China, but that growth is unlikely due to the full recovery of Chinese domestic cement supply in 2020. SSI Research forecasts a total 2021 cement and clinker sales growth of 2% year-on-year to 104Mt from 102Mt. It predicts a 5% - 7% increase in domestic sales. The country’s installed cement production capacity is due to rise by 7% or 7Mt in early 2021.

One of the last news stories we covered before the Christmas break was that Lafarge Poland had selected China-based Nanjing Kisen International Engineering as the general contractor for a Euro100m-plus upgrade to its Małogoszcz cement plant. This appears to be the first major European cement plant upgrade project to be publicly run by a Chinese contractor. There may be other European projects in the sector run by Chinese companies ‘on the down-low.’

If it is the first then this is a significant milestone for the growth of the Chinese industry. It is a noteworthy first for Nanjing Kisen in the European Union. Europe is the home, after all, of a number of locally-based contractors and companies that can build or upgrade cement plants including FLSmidth, Fives, ThyssenKrupp, IKN and others. Indeed, all of the work on this project might actually be conducted by local companies, selected by the general contractor. For example, Lafarge Poland says that the general contractor will select a subcontractor on the Polish market.

It’s easy to fall into jingoistic nostalgia but should we really be surprised that China can competitively build cement plants given the ferocious growth of its own industry over the last few decades? Arguments by Western critics against growing Chinese dominance in industry have tended to home in on excuses why they might be ‘cheating’ such as intellectual property theft, unfair state aid or the use of low-cost infrastructure loans to countries along its Belt and Road Initiative. That last one carries some irony given that not so long ago discussions about developing world debt were framed in the context of the Cold War and the oil crisis in the 1970s. Western countries were seen as the bogeymen depending on one’s political outlook. With this in mind, the Financial Times recently reported on data released in December 2020 that suggested that China might be heading into its own overseas debt crisis. The takeaway message here is that attempting to apply China’s whopping infrastructure boom elsewhere might not work so well without the same level of control. Exporting production overcapacity abroad may simply turn out to be something like a giant Ponzi scheme! For the cement industry this may mean a pause or wind-down in the number of new plants backed by Chinese money, often with Chinese contractors tied in, and that the rise of Chinese engineering firms might not seem as unassailable as all that after all.

This leads into another noteworthy story that we also published before Christmas on China’s latest proposal to further reduce production capacity at home. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) wants to tighten the ratio of production capacity that has to be closed before new capacity can be built from 1.25:1 to 1.5:1. The kicker is that the new rules also include a clause intended to restrict the use of so-called ‘zombie’ capacity in the swapping process by limiting eligibility to productions lines that have been operated for two or more consecutive years since 2013. These rules seem targeted at the present day but they could potentially push Chinese cement production capacity per capita to rates more similar to those found in developed economies elsewhere (i.e. halve existing Chinese production capacity). Many of the country’s kilns were built in the early 2000s and the average lifespan of a clinker kiln is 50 years. This suggests that the ministry is thinking seriously about culling capacity by the administration’s carbon neutrality target of 2060.

Chinese penetration in the European cement plant market is more of an after-thought given the pace of projects in Asia and Africa over the last decade and the maturity of the sector. It can also be misleading given that some very-European-sounding engineering companies are actually owned by Chinese concerns. Yet no doubt local contractors and suppliers would like to keep any business they can. On the other hand, more market share may be found in Europe over the coming decades from retrofitting CO₂ mitigating equipment or building the anticipated hydrogen revolution once the regulatory and financial framework starts to favour it. Or maybe shifts to service and/or machine intelligence-style packages are the way forward. Nanjing Kisen may be the first Chinese company to upgrade a European cement plant but the market focus may quickly move on. Time will tell.

Answers by email for when readers think the first cement plant or production line in the US will be built by a Chinese company.

Happy New Year from Global Cement

China: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has released tougher draft rules regulating how cement producers should decommission old production capacity before they build new capacity. Under the new guidelines cement companies must retire at least two tonnes of outdated capacity for each tonne of proposed new capacity in areas classified as environmentally sensitive, according to Caixin Global. Previously, the ratio was 1.5:1. In non-environmentally sensitive areas, at least 1.5 tonnes of obsolete capacity should be retired for every tonne of new capacity, an increase from the current ratio of 1.25:1.

The proposed rules are currently open for public comment. However, cement companies are reportedly hurrying to obtain approval for new capacity projects approved under the current, easier regulations. The Chinese Cement Association has commented that some of the newly proposed projects ‘challenge’ the effectiveness of the government’s intent with the new measures and it has recommended a ban on production swaps across regions. The new rules also include a clause intended to restrict the use of so-called ‘zombie’ capacity in the swapping process by limiting eligibility to productions lines that have been operated for two or more consecutive years since 2013. Such redundant capacity is reportedly mainly concentrated in northeast China, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. No date for the ratification of the new rules has been disclosed.

Uzbekistan: State-owned Uzpromstroymaterialy has announced the start of cement production at a new 0.1Mt/yr integrated cement plant, called the Qurilish Ashyo Sifat Servis cement plant, in Fergana Region following a total investment of US$25.0m. The company has reported that the new plant represents part of the country’s efforts to increase its installed cement capacity by 60% to 20.0Mt/yr in 2020 from 12.5Mt/yr in 2019.

Uzbekistan: Uzbekqurilishmateriallari deputy chair Ulugbek Abrayev has said that Uzbek cement production capacity will total 20.0Mt/yr before 1 January 2021, up by 60% year-on-year from 12.5Mt at the start of 2020. Abrayev added that, due to growing demand, Uzbekistan will produce 14.5Mt in 2021, corresponding to 73% utilisation of projected capacity. A total of ten cement plant projects across eight of the country’s 12 regions are due for completion in 2020 and 2021.

India: Aditya Birla subsidiary UltraTech Cement said that it will spend US$200m in capital expenditure (CAPEX) during the 2021 financial year, which ends on 31 March 2021. The plans consist of a capacity expansion to 118Mt/yr from 115Mt/yr, including the completion of the 4.0Mt/yr Bara grinding plant in Uttar Pradesh and 1.2Mt/yr-worth of brownfield projects in Bihar and West Bengal. Solar and wind power capacity will increase to 350MW from 95MW, while waste heat recovery (WHR) capacity will increase to 185MW from 118MW.

Chair Kumar Birla said, “While 2021 will be a challenging year, Birla remains confident that the economy will revert to the 6 - 8% growth trajectory in 2022.”

India: JSW Group has delayed the initial public offering for its subsidiary JSW Cement to 2022 from December 2020 due to lack of demand for cement. Mint News has reported that the company will increase its cement production capacity during the intervening period by 43% to 20Mt/yr from 14Mt/yr.

Managing director Parth Jindal said, “A second consecutive year of decline in cement demand has delayed our expansion plans.” He added, "We will restart capital expenditure projects worth US$160m in October 2020. We're adding 1.5Mt/yr of integrated capacity and 3.0Mt/yr of grinding capacity."

JSW Cement’s cement production fell by 30% year-on-year in the three months that ended on 30 June 2020.

India: JSW Cement has said that it will delay a planned US$382m expansion of its installed capacity of 14Mt/yr to 25Mt/yr in 2023 until at least January 2021. The Business Standard newspaper has reported that JSW Cement previously postponed work to raise its capacity to 20Mt/yr in 2020, and that the economic situation following the coronavirus lockdown is “not conducive to the construction agenda.” JSW Cement chief executive officer (CEO) Nilesh Narwekar said, “The plans are being deferred by 6 – 12 months but we are not sure that they will happen.” Financing for the work was due to be split 50:50 between internal accruals and bank loans.

Hungary: Italy-based Entsorga has completed the installation of an automated alternative fuel (AF) line at a Hungarian cement plant.The upgrade consists of an Entsorga Spider crane and Pelican power system which will be able to maintain a continuous feed to the plant’s calcination system 24 hours a day.

Entsorga CEO Francesco Galanzino said, “Bringing a commission to a successful conclusion in the middle of the maximum intensity period of the coronavirus crisis has been a great satisfaction. The cement plant will make significant savings in CO₂ emissions.”

India: ACC Cement has awarded an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for work on its upcoming 1.0Mt/yr integrated Ametha plant in Kathnl, Madhya Pradesh to Larsen & Toubro. The Press Trust of India has reported that the 9500t/day cement plant will have a clinker capacity of 3.0Mt/yr. The value of the contract is reportedly US$131m.