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The Chinese cement sector had a tough time in 2022. This was confirmed this week as the large domestic cement producers released their financial results. Revenue was down, profits fell and cement sales volumes tumbled. The key causes included the continuation of the country’s zero-coronavirus policy, the declining real estate market and rising input costs for raw materials such as coal. Demand for cement withered and so did the fortunes of the cement companies.

Graph 1: Cement output in China, 2018 to 2022. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows that cement output fell by 9.8% year-on-year to 2.13Bnt in 2022 from 2.36Bnt in 2021. The greater decrease was in the first half of the year rather than the second. The China Cement Association (CCA) said that this was nearly the lowest output in the last decade and the largest decline since 1969 ! The National Bureau of Statistics of China also pointed out in a release that, despite investment in fixed assets increasing by around 5% in 2022 and national infrastructure spending growing by 9%, real estate development investment dropped by 10% to US$1.46Tn.

Graph 2: Sales revenue from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

Graph 3: Sales volumes of cement and clinker from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

The cement producers warned in their forecasts that the results for 2022 were going to be rough and so it came to pass. China National Building Material (CNBM)’s revenue fell by 16% year-on-year to US$33.4bn in 2022 and Anhui Conch’s sales fell by 21% to US$19.2bn in 2022. Although, Tangshang Jidong Cement and Huaxin Cement reported declines of income or revenue in single digits. Profits halved for all of the companies covered here. Various combinations of the reasons covered above were cited for the situation.

What is more interesting are the responses some of the producers are making and what has gone well. CNBM, for example, is pinning its hopes on better staggered peak production and infrastructure projects. Anhui Conch, meanwhile, appears to have been diversifying its business by increasing both its concrete and solar power production capacity significantly in 2022. It was also announced that it plans to spend US$2.81bn on capital expenditure projects in 2023. China Resources Cement (CRC) said it had optimised its presence in South China through selected acquisition and divestments. Huaxin Cement has continued its focus on overseas markets with its share of operating revenue originating from outside China rising to 13% of the group’s total in 2022 compared to 8% in 2021. It also mentioned a number of unnamed projects around the world steadily drawing nearer to action. Sure enough, the group announced earlier in March 2023 that it was buying a majority stake in Oman Cement.

As for 2023, the CCA forecast in January 2023 that cement demand would be flat or slightly down. However, at the same time, provincial changes to the real estate market are expected to improve market conditions and infrastructure development will further drive demand for cement. The CCA identified that the cement sector’s production overcapacity could become an issue with lower demand. In 2022 the national clinker production utilisation rate was 65%, a fall of 10% from that in 2021. It also pointed out that peak-staggered production had actually helped cement producers generally to cope with smaller declines in profits compared to less well regulated industries.

Problems such as the zero-coronavirus policy, the real estate market and rising raw material costs have made the country’s production overcapacity issue worse. Changes are being made such as the national abandonment of the coronavirus lockdowns in late 2022, and, as mentioned above, the real estate market is being modified. In addition to this, various environmental changes are on the way, as the government works towards its sustainability goals. The country remains the largest cement producer in the world. Yet the message here is that we should expect more of the same for the cement sector in China in 2023.

China: China National Building Material's (CNBM) revenue fell by 16% year-on-year to US$33.4bn in 2022 from US$40.0bn in 2021. Its adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell by 31% to US$5.18bn from US$7.50bn. Sales from its cement and concrete business segments fell by 18% to US$16.0bn and 29% to US$5.25bn respectively. Adjusted EBITDA fell by 42% to US$2.89bn and 7% to US$470m. Its sales volumes of cement and clinker decreased by 15% to 316Mt from 373Mt. Sales volumes of concrete decreased by 24% to 84.7Mm³ from 112Mm³.

The group said that, “In 2022, the triple pressure from shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations persisted, and the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the development environment increased.” With regards to the building materials segment it blamed a declining real estate market, a poor economy and general poor demand in both the peak and off seasons. It added, “The downturn in demand has further aggravated the contradiction of overcapacity in the industry, with prices running low, coupled with a sharp rise in the cost of coal and other elements leading to escalating production costs, the production and operation situation was extremely critical.” In response the company is continuing to push for supply-side reform, promote precise staggered peak production, working on stablising the market and seeking out opportunities to supply large-scale infrastructure projects.

China: Anhui Conch’s sales fell by 21% year-on-year to US$19.2bn in 2022 from US$24.4bn in 2021. Its net profit dropped by 52% to US$2.31bn from US$4.84bn. Sales volumes of cement and clinker decreased by 24% to 310Mt. It blamed the situation on weakening market demand and high energy costs.

New projects that started operation in 2022 included a capacity replacement scheme at its Anhui Chizhou Conch Cement subsidiary and two new clinker production lines at the Qarshi project in Uzbekistan. The group also completed its acquisition of Chongqing Duoji Renewable Resources, Naimanqi Hongji Cement and Chifeng Hahe Cement. By the end of 2022 its cement and concrete production capacities rose by 1% to 269Mt and 73% to 25.5Mm³. Its solar power capacity also more than doubled to 475MW.

China: Tangshang Jidong Cement’s operating income fell by 5% year-on-year to US$5.03bn in 2022 from US$5.27bn in 2021. Its net profit dropped by 52% to US198m from US$409m. Its sales volumes of cement decreased by 13% to 87Mt. It reported a cement production utilisation rate of around 49% from its total capacity of 176Mt/yr. The company blamed market overcapacity, a falling real estate market and mounting coal prices for tough trading conditions in the cement sector.

China: China Resources Cement (CRC) turnover fell by 27% year-on-year to US$4.10bn in 2022 from US$5.60bn in 2021. Its profit dropped by 75% to US$247m from US$989m. Its cement and concrete sales volumes decreased by 11% to 72.1Mt and 27% to 10.8Mm³ respectively. During the reporting year the group says it optimised its presence in South China by acquiring majority stakes in Hunan Liangtian Cement and Zhaoqing Jingang Cement, buying a minority stake in Fengqing County Xiqian Cement and by selling a majority stake in Shanxi China Resources Fulong Cement.

China: Huaxin Cement’s revenue fell by 6% year-on-year to US$4.43bn in 2022 from US$4.72bn in 2021. Its net profit decreased by 50% to US$393m from US$780m. Its sales volumes of cement and clinker declined by 20% to 75.3Mt and concrete sales volumes nearly doubled to 16.4Mm³. Despite flat cement demand the company expects a general domestic economic improvement, real estate market reforms and a focus on infrastructure to improve its fortunes in 2023.

During the reporting period the subsidiary of Switzerland-based Holcim started operating a 3000t/day production line at Nepal Narayani in early 2022 and commenced the second stage of a project to build a 4000t/day clinker line at Maweni in Tanzania in July 2022. Preparation work for a new clinker line project in Malawi also began. The company added that it has completed the investment and verification for ten additional projects in Africa, the Middle East and elsewhere in preparation of future business expansion. Overall, 13% of the group’s operating revenue derived from business outside of China in 2022 compared to 8% in 2021.

China: China Tianrui Group Cement reported a year-on-year decline in its sales during 2022. The group recorded sales of US$1.61bn, down by 15% from US$1.85bn. Its net profit was US$65.1m, down by 63% from US$174m.

China: Anhui Conch Cement plans to invest US$2.81bn in capital expenditure (CAPEX) throughout 2023. The investments will go towards building new capacity, upgrading to new technologies and increasing plants' energy efficiency. The Morning Star newspaper has reported that the producer currently faces high energy costs, against a backdrop of reduced cement demand.

Anhui Conch Cement recorded sales of US$19.2bn in 2022, down by 21% year-on-year from US$24.4n in 2021.

China: West China Cement recorded US$1.23bn in sales in 2022, up by 6% year-on-year from US$1.16bn in 2021. The producer's profit dropped by 23% to US$176m from US$230m.

Looking to the 2023 full year, West China Cement said that it expects demand in Guizhou and Xinjiang Provinces to 'remain subdued.' It noted upcoming infrastructure projects in Shaanxi Province as a source of substantial demand, but overall does not expect significant demand growth there. Meanwhile in Mozambique, the group expects its performance to remain unchanged.

China: China National Building Material (CNBM) subsidiary Xinjiang Tianshan recorded a drop in its net profit during 2022, Reuters has reported. The producer recorded a net profit of US$655m, down by 64% year-on-year from 2021 levels.