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A couple of long-running news stories popped up this week, led by the Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) latest forecast for the US market. Chief economist Ed Sullivan and the Market Intelligence Group predict slowing cement consumption growth to 2020 as the recovery period ends following the financial crash in 2008. The background to this is an expected rise in interest rates dragging on the construction market, a limited boost from the Trump administration’s tax cuts and rising debt levels hitting federal infrastructure spending.

This marks an abrupt turnaround from the PCA’s April 2018 forecast in which potential federal infrastructure spending was anticipated to kick in towards the end of 2019 creating 4% growth in 2020. To give the PCA credit, it did say at the time that this was contingent on a couple of key steps, including passage of an infrastructure bill, federal and state paperwork, bid letting and review and finally, contract awards leading to construction. Following the US mid-term elections in early November 2018 the prospect of an infrastructure bills seems remoter than before given the political differences between the US House of Representatives and the Senate. This may have been the final straw for the PCA and it adapted its forecast accordingly.

Graph 1: Cement shipments in the US, January – August 2013 - January – August 2018. Source: Portland Cement Association (PCA).

It is also worth reflecting on the third quarter financial results of the multinational cement producers over the last few weeks. CRH may have been crowing this week about how its US performance was driving its business in the wake of its acquisition of Ash Grove Cement and other assets, but many of the other multinational cement producers weren’t. HeidelbergCement, Buzzi Unicem and Titan all blamed the weather in the US for dragging on their results. LafargeHolcim said it suffered less with a ‘soft’ first quarter in 2018 followed by recovery.

The other story this week with relevance to the US was the continued speculation in the Canadian press about the future of the McInnis Cement plant in Quebec. The latest update is that the plant’s shareholders have asked the provincial government if they can swap the debt the province holds in the venture for equity. This has been seen as a potential bid to keep the company operational while it continues to hunt for a buyer. Rumours of a sale have swirled around since the start of 2018, with the Global and Mail newspaper naming HeidelbergCement as being potentially interested. Three bids have been reportedly made by unnamed parties but they were rejected for being too low. A slowing US cement market is particularly bad news for McInnis Cement. The plant is situated on the Atlantic Coast of Canada and exports to the US have been seen as a major part of its business. To this end it officially opened its marine terminal in the Bronx, New York in October 2018.

The main US market needs to find an alternative to the ‘fabled’ infrastructure bill if it wants better growth. Yet, reduced US cement consumption growth won’t help McInnis’ shareholders recoup the money they have sunk in the project. Somebody seems certain to lose in this situation and, with a protectionist incumbent in the White House, it seems likely to be somebody north of the border.

Malaysia: Lafarge Malaysia has appointed Yeoh Khoon Cheng as its interim chief executive officer (CEO).

Yeoh started his career with Deloitte Kassim Chan in 1979. He joined Lafarge Malaysia in 1987 as finance manager and has held various positions involving business development, mergers and acquisitions and corporate finance activities and acted as company secretary from 1990 to 1998. He was appointed as executive director and chief financial officer (CFO) in 1999. From mid-2011 to the end of 2015, he was the CFO for Lafarge Cement China. Latterly, Yeoh was the CFO of Huaxin Cement in China from 2016 to mid-2017. He is a member of the Malaysian of Institute of Accountants and the Malaysian Institute of Certified Public Accountants.

Kenya: The East Africa Portland Cement Company (EAPCC) has received backing from the Ministry of Trade to sell unused land to pay off debts and commitments of nearly US$150m. The ministry said that a cabinet memorandum is ready to grant the company approval to sell off its assets, according to the Business Daily newspaper. The cement producer says it needs the funds to pay employee benefits, pay suppliers, pay off debts to companies including the Kenya Commercial Bank and the Japanese International Cooperation Agency and refurbish its plant. The cement producer says it wants to spend US$19.5m towards refurbishing its plant in a one-to-two month shutdown. At present the unit is operating at a 50% capacity utilisation rate.

Philippines: Cemex Philippines’ subsidiary APO Cement plans to close its Davao cement terminal and indefinitely suspend one of its kilns at its Barangay plant in Cebu. It said in a statement that it had taken this action due to uncertainty caused by the disruption to its raw material supply, according to GMA News. It follows the on-going suspension of APO Land and Quarry following a landslide in September 2018. APO Land & Quarry supplies raw materials to APO Cement.

Vietnam: Associate Professor Dinh Trong Thinh, of the Academy of Finance – part of the Ministry of Finance, has conceded that exported cement from the country has a low price due to the poorer quality of some of its product. In an interview with the ministry’s press service, Vietnam Economic News, he said that some smaller and medium-sized cement producers use old technology such as shaft kilns, according to Việt Nam News newspaper. He added that local producers were forced to export cement at lower prices than it is sold domestically to reduce inventory. He noted that this was not sustainable in the long run due to production costs and overseas competition.

Austria: Zement Leube has acquired a 24.99% stake in Asamer. It made the purchase from Kurt Asamer who had decided to leave his 33% share in the business, according to the Oberösterreichische Nachrichten (OÖN) newspaper. The other partners in the business, Manfred Asamer and Robert Pree, have taken over some of Kurt Asamer’s holdings given them a majority share of 75.01%. Asamer is a building materials company that producer’s aggregates and concrete. It also owns cement production assets, including Fabrika Cementa Lukavac in Bosnia & Herzegovina.

UK: Breedon Group’s sales revenue rose by 32% year-on-year to Euro830m in the first 10 months of 2018. The result included the contribution of Lagan Group, which it purchased in April 2018. It described its cement business as performing within expectations.

Romania: The Competition Council has launched an investigation into an alleged anti-competitive agreement between Holcim, CRH and HeidelbergCement in early November 2018. It is concerned that there has been possible coordination of prices between the companies since 2010. As part of the probe, it conducted raids at the headquarters of the three companies and seized documentation. It has warned that fines of up to 10% of company turnover are applicable should it find any evidence of collusion. However, it also mentioned that companies that cooperated with the competition authority could expect leniency in the form of immunity to or reduced fines.

Pakistan: The Supreme Court has ordered DG Khan Cement to pay nearly US$0.6m into a dam fund in relation to falling water levels at the Katas Raj Temples in Chakwal, Punjab. The cement producer must make a deposit of US$0.5m as payment for water it used and US$0.1m as a penalty for ‘misleading’ the court, according to the Nation newspaper. The court has accused the company of pumping water from boreholes leading to water loss at a pond at the temples.

Ireland: CRH’s sales rose by 3% year-on-year to Euro19.9bn in the first nine months of 2018. Its earnings before interest, taxation, deprecation and amortisation (EBITDA) increased by 2% on a like-for-like basis to Euro2.5bn. The building materials producer said that its earnings had been supported by growth in the Americas despite poor weather. It added that ‘momentum’ remained positive in Europe and demand had improved in Asia. However, its EBITDA dropped by 44% in Asia.

By region the group reported falling cement sales volumes in the UK and Ukraine. Sales volumes rose in most other European territories, with particular growth in Hungary, Germany, Poland, Serbia and Switzerland. In the US it said that its newly acquired Ash Grove Cement assets and ones in Florida had performed in line with expectations. However, sales in Canada fell due to poor weather. Sales in the Philippines rose by 3% due to rising cement sales volumes and prices following growing demand. However, here earnings were hit by higher fuel and power costs.