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It’s the end of the year so it’s time to look at trends in the sector news over the last 12 months. It’s also the end of a decade, so for a wider perspective check out the feature in the December 2019 issue of Global Cement Magazine. The map of shifting production capacity and the table of falling CO₂ emissions per tonne are awesome and inspiring in their own way. They also point towards the successes and dangers facing the industry in the next decade.

Back on 2019 here are some of the main themes of the year in the industry news. This is a selective list but if we missed anything crucial let us know.

European multinationals retreat

LafargeHolcim left the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia, HeidelbergCement sold up in Ukraine and reduced its stake in Morocco and CRH is reportedly making plans to leave the Philippines and India, if local media speculation can be believed. To be fair to HeidelbergCement it has also instigated some key acquisitions here and there, but there definitely has been a feel of the multinationals cutting their losses in certain places and retreating that bit closer to their heartlands.

CRH’s chief executive officer Albert Manifold summed it up an earnings meeting when he said, “…you're faced with a capital allocation decision of investing in Europe or North America where you've got stability, certainty, overlap, capability, versus going for something a bit more exotic. The returns you need to generate to justify that higher level of risk are extraordinary and we just don't see it.”

The battle for the European Green Deal

One battle that’s happening right now is the lobbying behind the scenes for so-called energy-intensive industries in Europe as part of the forthcoming European Green Deal. The cement industry is very aware that it is walking a tightrope on this one. The European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) CO₂ price started to bite in 2019, hitting a high of Euro28/t in August 2019 and plant closures have been blamed on it. The rhetoric from Ursula von der Leyen, the new president of the European Commission, has been bullish on climate legislation and the agitation of Greta Thunberg internationally and groups like Extinction Rebellion has kept the issue in the press. Cembureau, the European Cement Association, is keen to promote the industry’s sustainability credentials but it is concerned that aspects of the proposed deal will create ‘uncertainty and risks.’ Get it wrong and problems like the incoming ban on refuse-derived fuel (RDF) imports into the Netherlands may proliferate. What the Green Deal ends up as could influence the European cement industry for decades.

The managed march of China

Last’s week article on a price spike in Henan province illustrated the tension in China between markets and government intervention. It looks like this was driven by an increase in infrastructure spending with cement sales starting to rise. Cement production growth has also picked up in most provinces in the first three quarters of 2019. This follows a slow fall in cement sales over the last five years as state measures such as consolidation and peak shifting have been implemented. The government dominates the Chinese market and this extends west, as waste importers have previously found out to their cost.

Meanwhile, the Chinese industry has continued to grow internationally. Rather than buying existing assets it has tended to build its own plants, often in joint ventures with junior local partners. LafargeHolcim may have left Indonesia in 2018 but perhaps the real story was Anhui Conch's becoming the country's third biggest producer by local capacity. Coupled with the Chinese dominance in the supplier market this has meant that most new plant projects around the world are either being built by a Chinese company or supplied by one.

India consolidates but watches dust levels

Consolidation has been the continued theme in the world's second largest cement industry, with the auction for Emami Cement and UltraTech Cement’s acquisition of Century Textiles and Industries. Notably, UltraTech Cement has decided to focus its attention on only India despite the overseas assets it acquired previously. Growth in cement sales in the second half of 2019 has slowed and capacity utilisation rates remain low. Indian press reports that CRH is considering selling up. Together with the country's low per capita cement consumption this suggests a continued trend for consolidation for the time being.

Environmental regulations may also play a part in rationalising the local industry, as has already happened in China. The Indian government considered banning petcoke imports in 2018 in an attempt to decrease air pollution. Later, in mid-2019, a pilot emissions trading scheme (ETS) for particulate matter (PM) was launched in Surat, Gujarat. At the same time the state pollution boards have been getting tough with producers for breaching their limits.

Steady growth in the US

The US market has been a dependable one over the last year, generally propping up the balance sheets of the multinational producers. Cement shipments grew in the first eight months of the year with increases reported in the North-Eastern and Southern regions. Imports also mounted as the US-China trade war benefitted Turkey and Mexico at the expense of China. Alongside this a modest trade in cement plants has been going on with upgrades also underway. Ed Sullivan at the Portland Cement Association forecasts slowing growth in the early 2020s but he doesn’t think a recession is coming anytime soon.

Mixed picture in Latin America

There have been winners and losers south of the Rio Grande in 2019. Mexico was struggling with lower government infrastructure spending hitting cement sales volumes in the first half of the year although US threats to block exports haven’t come to pass so far. Far to the south Argentina’s economy has been holding the cement industry back leading to a 7% fall in cement sales in the first 11 months of the year. Both of these countries’ travails pale in comparison to Venezuela’s estimated capacity utilisation of just 12.5%. There have been bright spots in the region though with Brazil’s gradual return to growth in 2019. The November 2019 figures suggest sales growth of just under 4% for the year. Peru, meanwhile, continues to shine with continued production and sales growth.

North and south divide in Africa and the Middle East

The divide between the Middle East and North African (MENA) and Sub-Saharan regions has grown starker as more MENA countries have become cement exporters, particularly in North Africa. The economy in Turkey has held back the industry there and the sector has pivoted to exports, Egypt remains beset by overcapacity and Saudi Arabian producers have continued to renew their clinker export licences.

South of the Sahara key countries, including Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa, have suffered from poor sales due to a variety of reasons, including competition and the local economies. Other countries with smaller cement industries have continued to propose and build new plants as the race to reduce the price of cement in the interior drives change.

Changes in shipping regulations

One of the warning signs that flashed up at the CemProspects conference this year was the uncertainty surrounding the new International Maritime Organistaion (IMO) 2020 environmental regulations for shipping. A meeting of commodity traders for fuels for the cement industry would be expected to be wary of this kind of thing. Their job is to minimise the risk of fluctuating fuel prices for their employers after all. Yet, given that the global cement industry produces too much cement, this has implications for the clinker and cement traders too. This could potentially affect the price of fuels, input materials and clinker if shipping patterns change. Ultimately, IMO 2020 comes down to enforcement but already ship operators have to decide whether and when to act.

Do androids dream of working in cement plants?

There’s a been a steady drip of digitisation stories in the sector news this year, from LafargeHolcim’s Industry 4.0 plan to Cemex’s various initiatives and more. At present the question appears to be: how far can Industry 4.0 / internet of things style developments go in a heavy industrial setting like cement? Will it just manage discrete parts of the process such as logistics and mills or could it end up controlling larger parts of the process? Work by companies like Petuum show that autonomous plant operation is happening but it’s still very uncertain whether the machines will replace us all in the 2020s.

On that cheery note - enjoy the winter break if you have one.

Global Cement Weekly will return on 8 January 2020

Australia: In a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange on 13 December 2019 Adelaide Brighton announced the appointment of Darryl Hughes as an additional company secretary, effective from 11 December 2019. Marcus Clayton will retain the position of Adelaide Brighton Company Secretary.

Vietnam: Tan Thang Cement has announced that it will commission its 2.0Mt integrated Nghe An cement plant in 2020. Its total investment in the plant, which is installed with equipment from Bedeschi, Lilama and Vinaconex, is US$211m.
Viêt Nam News has reported that this will help raise the total number of Vietnamese cement production lines to 86 in 2020, with a combined installed capacity of 106Mt/yr.

Mexico: Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua (GCC) has signed a 15-year power supply agreement with a Mexico-based solar energy provider. The Awareness Times newspaper has reported that the contract covers the supply of solar power to GCC’s 0.2Mt/yr Juarez cement plant in Chihuahua, as well as its head office and ready mix and aggregates operations, constituting roughly 20% of its electricity consumption. The agreement, which enters force on 1 January 2021, will save GCC US$2.5m/yr and cut 0.3Mt of CO2 emissions throughout its duration.

Tanzania: Dangote Cement has partnered with local police and other stakeholders to train the 600 drivers it employs in Tanzania in road safety compliance. The Citizen has reported that the training programme will involve sessions four times a year, with the objective of reducing road traffic incidents to zero. Dangote Cement Head of Transport Gerald Osagia said, “This training is aimed at ensuring that out drivers avoid any temptation that may cause accidents.” Global Cement has previously reported alleged overloading of a Dangote truck as a contributing factor in collision in August 2019 that killed three and injured 69 in Ikorodu, Nigeria.

China: Cement or asphalt roads will connect every settlement in China by 31 December 2019, according to an announcement by the Ministry of Transport. Sichaun province is the last part of the country to receive fully paved roads, which were yet to reach one town and one village as of 15 December 2019. Xinhua’s China Economic Information Service has reported that China has invested US$87.5bn in the construction of 6.34 million km of auxiliary roads since it began construction of the system in 2003.

UK: Quinn has announced that it will proceed with the exclusive supply of its Master Grade cement to the UK-based wholesale builders’ merchant National Buying Group (NBG) until the end of 2021, extending the term of the companies’ 2018 agreement. “Our partnership with NGB has made a significant contribution to the success of our bagged cement range, so we’re delighted to agree an extension to our exclusivity deal with NBG for supply to their merchant members,” said Lee Gillman, Quinn’s Great Britain Sales and Marketing Director. Quinn’s bagged range also consists of Premium Grade and General Purpose cement.

Spain: Asociacón Española de Pavimentos Continuos (AEPC), the body which represents manufacturers and maintainers of cement-based and other related flooring, has welcomed LafargeHolcim Spain as a new member. AEPC states its aims as ‘promoting and demanding the highest levels of safety, quality and integrity in all paving sector activities.’

LafargeHolcim Spain operates an installed capacity of over 7.0Mt/yr across five integrated plants. In 2019 it announced an investment of Euro20m in upgrades aimed at reducing its net carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 90,000t/yr by the end of 2022.

Germany: Gebr. Pfeiffer has appointed the current head of its Malaysia office Timothy Burden as president of its US subsidiary Gebr. Pfeiffer Inc., effective 1 January 2020. Burden brings 15 years’ materials handling and crushing engineering and sales experience to the role. He studied at Queen’s University Belfast and attained his Masters in engineering from the University of Southhampton in 2004.

Gebr. Pfeiffer will replace Burden in the Malaysian office with Vesa Peurakari, an experienced project and service manager and sales professional with a mechanical engineering degree from the University of Gothenburg.

Switzerland: Maerz has reported the successful installation of two Maerz PFR lime kilns with a capacity of 200t/day and 300t/day at Daesung MDI in South Korea, which was commissioned on 19 October 2019. The company also installed a 150t/day E2 two-shaft lime kiln at Easternbulk Lime Products Private Ltd in July 2019. Three further new plants with Maerz kilns are scheduled to enter operation in 2020 in China, Mexico and Russia and a second kiln will increase production of petcoke at Caleras’ San Juan plant in Argentina beginning in mid-2020.