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Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote was spotted attending the inauguration ceremony of Kenyan President William Ruto earlier in September 2022. This is relevant because Dangote’s cement company previously announced plans in 2016 to build two 1.5Mt/yr plants in Kenya, near Nairobi and Mombasa respectively. They were intended to become operational by 2021. Unfortunately, Dangote himself allegedly described Kenya as being more corrupt than Nigeria to Kenyan broadcast journalist Jeff Koinange a few years later and nothing more happened. Back in 2014 Ruto visited Dangote Cement’s Obajana plant in Kogi state in Nigeria when the politician was the Deputy President of Kenya. Dangote’s attendance at the presidential inauguration this month suggests at the very least that his relationship with Ruto remains active. Maybe more news on those planned plants will follow.

Graph 1: Cement in Kenya, 2018 – June 2022. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).

The reason why the owner of Africa’s largest cement company might be interested in the Kenyan market can be seen in its latest cement production figures. Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that production for the first half of 2022 grew by 20% year-on-year to 4.95Mt in the first half of 2022, from 4.12Mt in the same period in 2021. Cement production was broadly similar in 2018 and 2019 at around 6Mt. It then increased by 25% to 9.25Mt in 2021 from 7.41Mt in 2020. On a rolling annual basis, production picked up at the start of 2020 and has risen consistently since then each month, peaking at over 10Mt in May 2022.

However, the elections in August 2022 probably slowed this growth trend, despite being much more peaceful than those in 2007, although the KNBS is yet to release the data. Bamburi Cement said in its outlook for the second half of 2022 that it expected markets to recover after the ballot. The subsidiary of Holcim reported increasing turnover in the first half of 2022, due to mounting sales volumes and price rises, but its profit fell sharply. It blamed this on fuel and logistics inflation, growing clinker import costs as well as negative currency exchange effects.

That last point about imported clinker is worth noting given that a government report in late 2021 found that the country had a clinker shortage of up to 3.3Mt/yr. Yet, the KNBS data in recent years shows that cement production and consumption are broadly similar, suggesting that the shortfall in clinker is being imported. The report added that 59% of the imported clinker originated from Egypt, tariff free, due to a free trade agreement. Local producers were reported to have been operating at a 65% capacity utilisation rate. Egypt and the UAE accounted for most of the imported clinker followed by Saudi Arabia. An interview in the Standard newspaper at this time with Bamburi Cement’s managing director Seddiq Hassani revealed that, despite locally produced clinker being cheaper than imported clinker, some producers were reluctant to hand control of a key input material over to their local competitors. Other producers, predictably, were trying to persuade the government to raise the duty on imports of clinker from 10% to 25%. Tariff discussions have continued in 2022.

So far in 2022 the other big stories in the sector have included Bamburi Cement’s plans to build two solar power plants and a major repair to the kiln shell at East Africa Portland Cement’s (EAPCC) Athi River cement plant. The solar plants will be built next to Bamburi Cement’s integrated Mombasa plant and its Nairobi grinding plant. Once operational in 2023 they are anticipated to supply up to 40% of the cement producer’s total power supply. Devki Group, the owner of National Cement, also announced plans in August 2022 to set up a wind farm near Mombasa. However, this seems more like an attempt to diversify the group into electricity production rather than to supply its own plant near Nairobi. EAPCC’s upgrade project has completed this week after about a month and half of work. It is intended to increase the plant’s cement production by 50%.

Cement production started in rise in 2020 but the Covid-19 pandemic may have constrained this. Production (and consumption) then jumped up in 2021 and looks set to do similar in 2022 bar a possible blip from the elections in August 2022. This is despite the global market issues arising from the end of Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. These may be uncertain times but the fundamentals for the Kenyan cement market look positive despite rising end prices. Unsurprisingly, it looks likely that Dangote Cement remains keen to extend its business to Kenya.

India: Sagar Cement has appointed KV Vishnu Raju as its chair. He succeeds K Thanu Pillai in the post.

Vishnu Raju is a graduate in Chemical Engineering from the National Institute of Technology in Tiruchirapalli and he holds a master's degree in Chemical Engineering from the Michigan Technological University in the US. He worked as an executive director and then managing director of Raasi Cements in the 1990s. He was later on the board of Anjani Portland Cement as its chair and managing director from 1999 to 2014.

Sagar Cement operates three integrated plants and two grinding plants in Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa and Pradesh Telangana.

Spain: LafargeHolcim España has appointed Carmen Díaz appointed as its director general. She succeeds Isidoro Miranda in the position and will report to Miljan Gutovic, Region Head EMEA at Holcim Group.

Díaz trained as a chemical engineer from the University of Oviedo and has taken the General Management Program (PDG) from the IESE Business School. She started working for Lafarge in 2002 as the head of its concrete business in Spain. She held the position of VP Commercial Performance in 2014 with responsibility for 30 countries. Later she became the Head of Ready-Mix Commercial and then the General Manager for the ReadySet Mix Digital Venture. Most recently she was worked as the Commercial Director of Spain for LafargeHolcim.

India: Birla Corporation plans to invest a total of US$1bn in realising its planned 50% cement capacity footprint expansion to 30Mt/yr by 2030. The producer is considering establishing 4Mt/yr-worth of new cement plants, possibly in the form of a new 4Mt/yr integrated cement plant in Chhattisgarh. It would also carry out 4Mt/yr-worth of upgrades and 2Mt/yr-worth of debottlenecking work.

The producer expects its newly commissioned Mukutban cement plant to contribute 600,000 - 700,000t of cement production during the remaining five months of the 2023 financial year, rising to 3Mt/yr by 2024.

During the 2022 financial year, Birla Corporation increased its cement sales volumes by 6% to 14Mt. The company said that it achieved 95% capacity utilisation throughout the year. It noted continuing cost pressures and slow demand growth so far in the 2023 financial year.

Chair Harsh Vardhan Lodha said "Things may not look up immediately, but post-Diwali we are hopeful of a robust turnaround."

India: Ratings agency Crisil forecasts that the operating profitability of cement producers will decline by around 15% year-on-year to around US$11/t in the 2023 financial year due to growing fuel costs. However, it added that a 17% growth in cement demand in the quarter from April to June 2022 would mitigate the impact of this. It expects that growth in the cement market in the 2023 year will be driven by non-residential sectors such as infrastructure development and commercial projects. By region, growth is anticipated to increase fastest in eastern regions, followed by central and southern regions but the northern and western regions could be more subdued. It added that any significant delay in the reduction of petcoke and coal prices or any company that was unable to increase its cement prices would add further pressure to the market.

India: Gensol has commissioned a 6.7MW captive solar power plant for Shree Cement’s Panipat plant in Haryana. The project is estimated to save over 9000t/yr of CO2 emissions. The cement producer acquired the 1.5Mt/yr cement grinding plant in 2015.

Pakistan: The Punjab Assembly has constituted a committee to review proposed plans for a new cement plant in Chakwal in the Province's Rawalpindi Division. Protestors have previously complained about plans to the Punjab Environment Protection Agency. The Dawn newspaper has reported that stated concerns include the threat to the local water supply, damage to future tourism promotion and possible harm to endangered species, including autochthonous wild sheep.

Malaysia: Bank CIMB Group Holding Berhad has published sustainable finance targets for its lending to cement sector clients. Islamic Finance News has reported that the institution will reduce the emissions intensity of loans to cement producers by 36% to 720,000t per tonne of cementitious product by 2030 from 460,000 at present.

CIMB Group Holding Berhad recently doubled its sustainable finance target to US$13m by 2024, from US$6.48m.

Australia: Fremantle Ports has broken ground on its construction of a new US$35.1m cement terminal at Kwinana Bulk Terminal in Western Australia. Business News Western Australia has reported that contractor COVA-Haywards will build a 40,000t-capacity clinker storage dome at the site. The terminal will supply BGC and Cockburn Cement's local grinding operations. Commissioning is scheduled for 2024.

State development minister Roger Cook said"It will significantly improve our capability to move clinker faster, more safely and with very significant environmental benefits, and provide the capacity for the port facility to accommodate future trade growth. It's a great example of planning assets to integrate the state-owned port with adjacent private facilities, with benefits for all."

France: HeidelbergCement subsidiary Ciments Calcia plans to lay the first stone of a major upgrade project at its Airvault cement plant on 5 October 2022. The event will mark the start of the construction phase of a new 4000t/day clinker production line, according to La Nouvelle République newspaper. The Euro300m project will be built by Germany-based ThyssenKrupp.