Displaying items by tag: Indonesia

Holcim Indonesia inaugurated a new cement terminal in Lampung last week. Unfortunately, the spectre of industry overcapacity haunts the country at present and the subsidiary of LafargeHolcim may be late to the party. The Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) has been publicly warning the government of overcapacity since the end of the summer. Its first line of action has been to lobby for restrictions on producer permits to slow the growth of new plants.

ASI figures show that cement sales in September 2016 fell by 3.3% to 5.64Mt compared to August 2016 due to lower residential sector demand. Domestic cement sales rose by 2.95% year-on-year to 44.7Mt in the first nine months of 2016 and the ASI expects sales growth of 3 – 4% for 2016 overall. Yet, the risk of overcapacity is stark. Cement production capacity has nearly doubled from 59.3Mt/yr in 2012 to 92.7Mt/yr in 2016 but demand is projected to only reach 65Mt in 2016, leaving a production oversupply of 27.7Mt. Regional consumption has fallen in Jakarta, Banten and West Java, particularly in the first two. Elsewhere, it has grown, particularly in Central Java, as well as Yogyakarta and East Java to a lesser extent.

Initial Global Cement Directory 2017 research places active production capacity at 66.3Mt/yr suggesting that the ASI may be exaggerating the risk of overcapacity. The additional c30Mt/yr capacity arises from plants that have been proposed, that are actually under construction or that have been mothballed. However, the ASI data should be more accurate as it represents the local producers. Either way, capacity is growing faster than consumption as can be seen in graph 1.

Graph 1: Cement consumption and production capacity in Indonesia, 2012 – 2016. Source: Indonesian Cement Association, Global Cement Directory 2012 – 2017.

Semen Indonesia, the country’s largest producer, reported that its revenue fell very slightly to US$1.4bn in the first nine months of 2016 and its net profit fell by 8.4% to US$215m. It blamed this on a fall in sales volumes and prices due to rising competition. The other large producers have said similar in the past. Indocement, the country’s second largest producer after Semen Indonesia, saw its revenue fall by 11.9% to US$837m in the first nine months of 2016 and its profit fell by 2.2% to US$231m. LafargeHolcim described the market as affected by overcapacity and ‘a difficult competitive environment.’

Back in May 2016 a feature on the predicament facing the Indonesian cement industry in the Jakarta Post suggested that producers were building new capacity despite the risks of overcapacity to win market share. Cement producers are about to find out whether this will work or not. Meanwhile it seems unlikely that the measures the ASI is suggesting will do much to alleviate the looming crisis. Still, on the positive side, it’s looking like a good time to buy cement as a consumer.

For more information about the cement industry in Indonesia view the first part of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) feature in the October 2016 issue of Global Cement Magazine

Indonesia: Semen Indonesia has appointed Rizkan Chandra as its new president director at its annual general meeting. He will hold the post of president director until 2020. Rizkan Chandra replaces Suparni.

Rizkan Chandra, aged 47 years, has previously served as the director of Semen Indonesia (Persero) and worked for Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero), Telkomsel and Sigma Cipta Caraka. He holds an undergraduate degree in Informatics Engineering and a master’s degree in Management of Technology from the National University of Singapore.

Take a moment to spy on the Citeureup cement plant in Indonesia. It's gargantuan! The Indocement site is one of the largest cement factories on the world. It has nine production lines with a cement production capacity of 11.9Mt/yr.

The news this week that Indocement intends to stop production at three cement production lines at its Citeureup plant strikes an uncertain tone. The decision underpins the impression of a readjusting Indonesian cement market despite the HeidelbergCement subsidiary saying that the capacity will be replaced by a new 4.4Mt/yr line at the site at the end of 2015. Temporarily reducing production capacity by 35% may not seem much on a industrial site that can produce more cement than many countries! However, a single factory this massive is likely to be particularly vulnerable to market changes.

Zooming out to the national picture, Indocement reported that its revenue dropped by 6.6% year-on-year for the first half of 2015. Domestic sales volumes of cement fell by 8.1% as domestic cement consumption in the country generally fell by 4.2%. The cement producer blamed the falls on economic stagnation and delayed government spending on infrastructure projects.

In its outlook Indocement lamented the loss of subsidies on electricity and fuels in Indonesia. Back in 2014 the government raised electric prices via a tariff under the previous administration before lowering them slightly. Then the new government raised fuel prices in November 2014 by removing subsidies with the intention of siphoning the savings to infrastructure spending. At the time a Semen Indonesia representative told the Jarkata Post that he expected cement sales to rise by 6% in 2015. This estimate had already followed a downward adjustment of predicted sales in 2014 due to familiar sounding delays in infrastructure projects (due to an election year) and a slowing economy.

In addition to this the government also imposed price cuts on cement on state-run producers in January 2015. Semen Indonesia then saw its domestic sales volumes fall by 5.3% in January – May 2015 to 9.91Mt. Subsequently Semen Indonesia saw its net profit drop by 21% year-on-year to US$163m for the first half of 2015. Around a month before its mid-year results it reported to local media that it was concentrating on exports in 2015. Reported exports have risen by over 700% to 0.18Mt in January – May 2015. Other producers such as LafargeHolcim have also reported 'challenging' market conditions. Nationally, cement demand dropped by 3.8% year-on-year to 22.9Mt for the first five months of 2015 according to Indonesian Cement Association data. This was the biggest fall since 2009.

All in all it sounds like the good times may be gone for the Indonesian cement industry, at least for now. The local economy as a whole is in a recession following two consecutive quarters of declining growth in gross domestic product (GDP). Yet cement producers are still forlornly hoping for infrastructure spending to kick in. Throw in worries about the effects of a US interest rate rise on Indonesian borrowing and the situation is looking dicey. Indocement's Citeureup complex may seem even more outsized in a year's time.

UPDATE:  A reader has pointed out that we linked the aerial photo at the start of this article to the smaller of the two cement plants in the area. This has now been changed. Note the trucks queuing to enter the plant.

Indonesia: Semen Indonesia has appointed its operational director Suparni as its new CEO. The state-owned company has taken the decision after receiving 69.6% votes from 76.1% its overall shareholders, according to The Jakarta Post. Suparni replaces Dwi Soetjipto, who has joined the oil and gas company Pertamina. The shareholders also appointed Rizkan Chandra to the board of directors.

Indonesia: The Indonesian government has selected PT Semen Indonesia president director Dwi Soetjipto as the next president director and CEO of the country's state-owned oil and gas firm PT Pertamina, following interim chief Muhamed Husen, who took over on 1 October 2014 from Karen Agustiawan. As of 28 November 2014, Soetjitpto is leading Pertamina.

Soetjipto managed PT Semen Indonesia's troubled unit, PT Semen Padang, between 2003 and 2005, where his success in overcoming widespread worker's opposition to the government's plan to sell a controlling stake in the firm to Mexico's Cemex landed him the top post in Semen Indonesia.

Soetjipto gained a Bachelor Degree in Engineering from the Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology in Surabaya, East Java, a Masters in Management from the Andalas University in West Sumatra and a PhD in Management from the University of Indonesia in Depok, West Java.

One of the ideas aired by several speakers at last week's 6th Brazilian Cement Congress was that using cement as a construction material is inherently a sustainable option.

The reasons for this included the durability of cement's construction products and the role cement plays in improving the living standards of a country. For example, under the onslaught of extreme weather like hurricanes, concrete structures are more likely to remain standing. Or, for a country like Brazil with sections of society living in long-term 'temporary' buildings in its favelas or shanty towns, providing affordable cement to help the country build better housing for its inhabitants is the only sustainable future that could be considered.

Perhaps in line with this concept of cement-as-sustainable-construction-material we see Semen Indonesia this week announcing expansion plans in three countries in South and Southeast Asia.

In West Sumatra a Semen Indonesia subsidiary has started building a 3Mt/yr cement plant in Padang. Then in Bangladesh Semen Indonesia revealed its intention to buy a 1Mt/yr plant. Finally, the state-owned Indonesian cement producer said that its Semen Gresik subsidiary was planning to build a new cement plant in Central Java at Rembang in June 2014. From previous press releases we can see that both new plants are FLSmidth builds. Both orders were announced in early 2014. Each has a capacity of 8000t/day.

The plans to expand outside of Indonesia echo reports that Semen Indonesia was set to buy a minority share in a Myanmar cement producer. Although the producer was unnamed as of early May 2014, Semen Indonesia CEO Dwi Soetjipto valued the stake at US$30m and the producer's production capacity at 1.5Mt/yr in comments to the Jakarta Globe.

Altogether the two new plants in Indonesia will place Semen Indonesia's total cement production capacity at 40Mt/yr by 2017 according to company figures. This would be enough to place the company within the top 20 of the world's largest cement producers by production capacity following the research from Global Cement's 'Top 75 global cement companies'.

In a nice coincidence, the company with a production capacity of 40Mt/yr on that list was Eurocement. Last week the Russian cement producer announced that it had signed contracts worth Euro387m with Chinese companies - including Sinoma, CNB, Sinomach and CAMC Engineering Co - to add 17Mt/yr cement production capacity across six plants in Russia. Another six or seven more construction agreements for cement plants are also expected to be signed in the coming months.

Certainly for the countries Semen Indonesia is focusing on – Indonesia, Bangladesh and Myanmar, with low gross domestic product per capita – providing the raw material for stronger and more durable buildings covers some of the sustainability bases. Yet if all these new plants only use fossil fuels and are subject to few environmental restrictions then that undermines some of this. However, whether all this expansion is sustainable or not, the cement industry never remains stationary.

There has been an interesting knock-on effect from further economic integration of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) this week. Holcim Philippines may delay the construction of a 2.5Mt/yr cement plant in Bulacan province due to a drop in import tariffs in 2015. Vietnam or Indonesia were named as possible sources of clinker due to their excess capacity.

The ASEAN group comprises 10 countries including Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia. Their respective cement production capacities range from 0.3Mt/yr at a clinker grinding plant in Singapore to Indonesia's integrated cement production capacity of 45Mt/yr. In total the ASEAN countries have a production capacity of around 220Mt/yr for a population of about 600m with national gross domestic products (GDP) per capita ranging from US$900 (Laos) to US$52,000 (Singapore).

One scenario for cement producers in the ASEAN countries is that they might be swamped by exports from places like Vietnam. That country had a production capacity of 73Mt/yr in 2013 with cement sales predicted to rise to 63Mt in 2014. Assuming the government released figures are correct, that leaves at least a 10Mt of cement production-sales gap that could torpedo a neighbouring country's cement industry in the free trade area.

Indonesia, the other potential source of clinker that Holcim Philippines mentioned, has seen construction growth slow and production capacity grow. Holcim reported in its nine-month report in November 2013 that, while national cement sales had risen by 5.3% to 41.6Mt, supply capacity had risen by 9% to 59Mt/yr. Assuming equal sales distribution throughout this suggests a capacity gap of 4Mt.

Some politicians in the region have complained that impending free trade area will create winners and losers. At a recent ASEAN meeting in Yangon, Myanmar a Myanmar planning minister raised the issue of a development gap within the ASEAN region calling for renegotiation for countries like Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos.

Meanwhile both the cement industries in Vietnam and Indonesia have clearly anticipated the implications of the ASEAN Economic Community. The Vietnam National Cement Association expects to remain competitive within the ASEAN region and against Chinese imports after 2015. In Indonesia State Enterprises Minister Dahlan Iskan stated this week that the cement industry was ready for the ASEAN Economic Community thanks to the government's strategy to consolidate its major cement producers within one company, Semen Indonesia. Consistent cement industry growth in South East Asia may be about to change.

Thank you to everyone who commented on the column in last week's Global Cement Weekly (GCW132, MINTed cement industries). Amongst the more interesting thoughts was that in a large cement producing country like the US, there are regional areas of focus. So, returning to neologisms, FACT might refer to, say, Florida, Alabama, California and Texas, four southern states with the highest cement production capacities in the union. Similar regional breakdowns could be applied to countries such as China, India or Brazil.

Following last week's look at the MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) economies in the context of cement we now take a quick recap on what has been happening in the 'I' of the MINT, Indonesia.

Indonesia has a population of 238m, a cement production capacity of 47Mt and a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of US$1.29tr. Both its cement consumption per capita and GDP per capita are low by international standards suggesting that it has considerable growth potential for its cement industry as its wider economy grows.

Indonesia's biggest cement producer, the state owned Semen Indonesia (formerly Semen Gresik) has reported to local media that its unaudited net profit rose by 14% year-on-year in 2013 to US$410m. Its revenue rose by 12% to US$1.8bn. Its new 1.5Mt/yr cement plant in Tuban, East Java has been reported as being operational, bringing Semen Indonesia's cement production capacity up to 31.8Mt/yr in 2014.

The country's second biggest cement producer, Indocement, has not reported any figures for 2013 as a whole yet. However parent company HeidelbergCement did note that the Indonesian economy had slowed down as a result of falling commodity prices. Cement and clinker sales including exports rose by 0.6% in the first nine months of 2013. Around mid-2013 local media reported that Indocement was losing market share in Indonesia.

Holcim Indonesia has also not revealed its financial situation in 2013. However, like Indocement, Holcim Indonesia reported with its third quarter results that economic growth had 'temporarily' flattened in the country. Operating results had not improved on levels in 2012.

Overall domestic cement sales rose by 5.8% year-on-year to 47Mt for the first 10 months of 2013 according to data from the Indonesian Cement Association. Previous annual rises in cement production and cement consumption had started to slow in 2012.

Growth in the Indonesian cement industry is also having an effect on the larger geographical region. Australian cement producer Boral suspended clinker production at its Waurn Ponds plant in late 2012 due to cheaper imports from countries such as Indonesia. New Zealand followed suit in mid-2013 when Holcim announced plans to build cement import terminals instead of building a new cement plant at Weston.

In summary it seems likely that the cement market in Indonesia slowed down in the first half of 2013 but it still appears to be generating growth none-the-less, true to the MINT pattern. Market analysts from Kim Eng agree, pinning issues with domestic cement consumption in 2013 on capacity bottlenecks and over-crowded ports. Growth in the cement markets for the MINT countries may seem likely but in the case of Indonesia it cannot be assumed.

There was a great quote on BBC News from Nigerian cement mogul Aliko Dangote to start 2014 with: "Can you imagine, can you believe, that [Nigeria] has been growing at 7%/yr with no power, with zero power? It's a joke."

In the article Dangote is describing economic growth in Nigeria and the BBC points out that 170 million people in Nigeria use the same amount of power as 1.5 million people do in the UK. The author then goes on to predict that Nigeria could grow at a rate of 10 – 12%, by just solving power infrastructure in the country.

For the start of 2014 the British state broadcaster has been running a radio series on the so-called MINT economies. The term refers to the growing economies of Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey and is being used as a new buzzword in the same fashion as BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) to describe broadly similar growing economies outside the traditional western bloc dominated by the G7.

Comparing the cement industries in the MINT countries raises some discrepancies between the desires of Western economists and the local cement industries. Mexico has a population of 118m, a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of US$1.85tr and a cement production capacity of 50Mt/yr. Indonesia has a population of 238m, a GDP of US$1.29tr and a cement production capacity of 47Mt/yr. Nigeria has a population of 175m, a GDP of US$479bn and a cement production capacity of 28Mt/yr. Turkey has a population of 74m, a GDP of US$1.17tr and a cement production capacity of 82Mt/yr.

Mexico and Turkey have the lower populations in the MINT group, the highest (and most similar) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita at US$15,000 and are the more developed cement industries in the group with the higher cement production capacities per capita. All of the MINT countries have infrastructural issues that will require large amounts of cement in the coming years.

Highlighting Dangote's concerns we cover a cement industry news story this week from Nepal, where Dangote is considering potential locations for a cement plant. Part of the publicly reported meeting between Dangote and the Nepalese government concerned power requirements for the project. Dangote intends to generate 30MW itself and has asked Nepal to provide 30MW. From the CEO downwards the cement producer clearly understands the problems of underdeveloped infrastructure. This is not surprising given his comments above!

That MINT economies are growing powers will not surprise the cement industry. In this week's Global Cement Weekly, in addition to the Dangote story, we feature two news stories focusing on direct industry capital investment in Indonesia. Looking more widely nearly half the stories are from BRIC or MINT countries.

With this in mind Global Cement has developed its own buzzword for the cement industry in 2014: the VISA group. This group includes Vietnam, Italy, Spain and Australia, countries that have all had problems with their cement industries in 2013 such as a production overcapacity or financial losses. If readers have any nicknames of their own for groups of cement producing nations let us know at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

Indonesia: It seems that not a week goes past without a forecast, announcement or other report about the continued boom in the Indonesian cement industry. Similarly, there is a steady stream of expansion announcements to accommodate the future demand. In light of another round of impressive cement statistics, what's the story for Indonesia in 2012 and beyond?

In the three months to 31 March 2012 Indonesia produced 12.5Mt of cement, an 18% rise on the first quarter of 2011. In the whole of that year, the cement industry turned out a massive 17% more cement than in 2010. These headline increases are certainly impressive and show that if the first quarter of 2012 was repeated three more times throughout the rest of the year, Indonesia would hit its 53Mt production forecast. This is more than double the cement production of 1998 (22Mt/yr in the midst of the Asian banking crisis) and, while from a low base, the values represent incredible sustained year-on-year demand growth.

But what is the potential of the Indonesian cement industry? This can be assessed by looking one of Indonesia's neighbours, namely Malaysia, and doing a quick thought-experiment. What would the Indonesian cement industry look like if the country were to suddenly develop demands and cement consumption patterns like Malaysia does today? Indonesia has a population 8.3 times higher than Malaysia¹ and a cement consumption/capita rate approximately 2.4 times lower.² Assuming current Indonesian cement consumption to be 50Mt, if all of the people in Indonesia were to suddenly start using cement like Malaysia does today, the country's cement industry would have to be nearly 1000Mt/yr to support demand!

While this is clearly not the case today and is unlikely to be fully realised, Indonesia will continue to develop economically. As it does, the world's fourth most populous nation will need more cement. How much is open to debate, but even if a small percentage of that hypothetical 1000Mt can be realised, it will certainly justify the current rush to add extra capacity. This is now especially likely in light of the December 2011 relaxation of land acquisition rules, which will make it easier to build both cement projects and the large construction projects that need cement.

Click here for much more on the cement industries of Indonesia and Malaysia (as well as Vietnam) from the April 2012 issue of Global Cement Magazine.

1. CIA World Factbook website, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook.

2. Cement consumption per capita data for Malaysia taken from Lafarge 2010 Annual Report. (http://www.lafarge.com/04112011-customers_activities-cement_market_2010-uk.pdf). Malaysia is a representative comparison for Indonesia based on its GDP to cement consumption ratio.