Displaying items by tag: LafargeHolcim

On 15 January 2015, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) abandoned the Euro1.20 cap on the Swiss Franc. The effects of the decision were immediate, with the value of a Franc dropping from Euro1.20 to just Euro0.99. The decision caused turmoil for currency brokers and big business in Switzerland's normally bullet-proof finance sector, with some brokers out of business by the end of the same day.

It is not hard to see why these brokers were caught out by the sudden change in the SNB's position. On 18 December 2014 Thomas Jordan, Chairman of the SNB's Governing Board, stated in no uncertain terms that, "The SNB remains committed to purchasing unlimited quantities of foreign currency to enforce the minimum exchange rate with the utmost determination." In research conducted by Bloomberg News on 9 - 14 January 2015, not one of 22 economists questioned expected the SNB to abandon the cap in 2015. That's quite an about-turn by the SNB in less than a month.

The decision to 'scrap-the-cap' shows the potential of outside influences to suddenly unseat even the most secure of businesses. Such companies include Holcim, the share-price of which went on a rollercoaster on the SIX Swiss Exchange in the immediate aftermath of the announcement. At one point on 15 January 2015 Holcim had lost 20% of its value before closing 11% down on the day. It has since recovered somewhat, although a whopping Euro3bn of its capital has been swallowed up due to the plummeting Franc.

Following the sudden changes to its circumstances, Holcim immediately reinforced its commitment to its merger with Lafarge. "Regarding a possible impact on the combination with Lafarge, what we can say is that we remain committed to the merger," said spokesman Eike-Christian Meuter. There was an almost simultaneous reciprocal statement from the French producer, also stating its commitment. No change there then.

The calmness of Holcim's statements was broadly in line with commentary from bankers, which stated that large deals were unlikely to be affected by the change. This is because Swiss firms can insure themselves against the effects of such moves. Another 'get-out of jail free card' could have been a material adverse change (MAC) clause. If in place a MAC would allow the merging parties to terminate a transaction if an external event significantly changes the outlines of the deal. It is not possible to know whether Lafarge and Holcim have such a clause due to confidentiality issues.

Despite the fundamentals of the LafargeHolcim merger appearing to be unaffected, the scrapping of the Franc cap is an excellent example of how external policy makers can have a direct and unexpected impact on the underlying conditions of the global cement industry. Another major external influence at present is the low oil price, mainly affected by the oil producing cartel OPEC. HeidelbergCement said this week that it expects the oil price fall to have a positive impact on its profit in 2015. It makes 80% of its revenue in oil-importing countries, which should see reduced transport and production costs. This will result in improved economic conditions, higher levels of construction and hence cement production. For HeidelbergCement 2015 could be a case of costs down, sales up.

That surely sounds like good news, for some stagnant 'old' developed economies at least. However, in the world of 'new normals' it is the IMF that has sounded the biggest warning this week. It dropped its 2015 global economic growth forecast from 3.8% to 3.5%. As fuel prices slump, so too has inflation. In the EU this has resulted in deflationary pressures that could yet stump the recovery. Consumers (and construction firms alike) may go from a position of not being able to afford things, to not wanting to buy them. In the longer term, this may be yet more bad news for the cement sector in established markets.

The end of 2014 proved a good time to tidy up outstanding business for various organisations with links to the cement industry. Lafarge and Holcim received clearance from the European Commission for their proposed merger and they announced their executive committee, Holcim and Cemex concluded their transactions in Europe, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced regulations for coal ash, HeidelbergCement found a buyer for its Hanson Building Products business and even PPC managed to appoint a new CEO.

The HeidelbergCement sale is of interest because the company has said it is using the proceeds to pay off debt rather than to make purchases. CEO Bernd Scheifele said in the press release that the intention was to improve the company's 'credit-worthiness.' This isn't directly related to the cement industry because Hanson Building Products produces concrete gravity pipe, concrete and steel pressure pipe and clay bricks in the US, UK and eastern Canada. Yet the potential cash bonanza is relevant. Remember, this is happening at the same time that Lafarge and Holcim have been offloading lots of their own assets to meet competition regulations in various territories.

When the initial public offering was made for Hanson Building Products in September 2014, analysts assumed that HeidelbergCement was positioning itself for a spending spree. The purchase price for Hanson Building Products agreed with a private equity firm was US$1.4bn. This could be used to buy five 1 Mt/yr cement plants at an average price of US$250/t for cement production capacity!

Unfortunately for HeidelbergCement its net debt rose from Euro7bn in 2012 to Euro7.5bn in 2013. This was the first time it had risen since 2007 when it hit a peak of Euro14.6bn. That year was when it agreed to purchase Hanson. It also marked the start of the 2007 – 2008 financial crisis. Similarly, ratios such as net debt to operating income before depreciation (OIBD) also rose in 2013. Although it looks from interim financial reports that HeidelbergCement's debt may have decreased again in 2014, it is probably not doing so at any great speed. Hence the Hanson Building Products sale.

For comparison with debt held by the other European-based cement producers, Lafarge's net debt stood at Euro10.3bn at the end of 2013, Holcim's net debt was Euro7.9bn, Italcementi's net debt was Euro1.9bn and Mexico-based Cemex's net debt was Euro14.8bn. Compared to most of these their operating incomes these company's have net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) ratios (net debt/EBITDA) of between two and three-and-a half suggesting that they can pay back their debts within a few years if absolutely necessary. The outlier here is Cemex with a ratio of over six following previous acquisition bursts.

The implication here is that Lafarge and Holcim have chosen to sell their wares at a time when their European competitors are weakened. Meanwhile their Chinese competitors have only just started to directly expand outside of mainland China. Smart move.

France/Switzerland: Holcim and Lafarge have announced the executive committee for the proposed merged company, LafargeHolcim, due to be formed in the first half of 2015. As previously announced, Lafarge's current CEO Bruno Lafont will become LafargeHolcim's first CEO and the chairman of the new board will be Wolfgang Reitzle, currently chairman of Holcim.

Lafont will lead a project team of 10 managers from both Holcim and Lafarge to handle the transition. Once the merger is finalised, the members of this project team will be officially appointed members of the Executive Committee.

The future executive committee is composed of:

• Finance: Thomas Aebischer, currently in charge of Finance at Holcim;
• Integration, Organisation and Human Resources: Jean-Jacques Gauthier, currently in charge of Finance at Lafarge;
• Europe: Roland Köhler, currently in charge of Europe at Holcim;
• Asia Pacific: Ian Thackwray, currently in charge of East Asia Pacific and Trading at Holcim;
• Middle-East Africa: Eric Olsen, currently in charge of Operations at Lafarge;
• North America: Alain Bourguignon, previously in charge of North America and UK at Holcim;
• Latin America: Saâd Sebbar, currently in charge of Morocco at Lafarge;
• Performance and Cost: Urs Bleisch, currently in charge of Corporate Functions at Holcim;
• Growth and Innovation: Gérard Kuperfarb, currently in charge of Innovation at Lafarge;

In India both companies are well on track in preparing the merger of Holcim and Lafarge, with the future structure for the subcontinent to be announced in due course upon clearance by the Competition Commission of India.

The current executive committees of Holcim and Lafarge remain in charge and accountable for the activity and operations of their respective groups until completion of the merger. Both groups continue to operate entirely separately as competitors until the merger is completed.

The selection and nomination process for the rest of the leadership team is also well underway. Apart from the future executive committee, the following direct reports of the future CEO have been selected under project mode:

• Strategy and M&A, Christof Haessig, currently in charge of Corporate Finance and Treasury at Holcim;
• Communication, Public Affairs and Sustainable Development, Alexandra Rocca, currently in charge of Communication, Public Affairs and Sustainable Development at Lafarge;
• Legal, Xavier Dedullen, currently in charge of Legal & Compliance at Holcim;
• Health and Safety, Sapna Sood, currently in charge of Health and Safety at Lafarge.

For the last issue of Global Cement Weekly before the Christmas and New Year break we're following our tradition of reviewing some of the major industry news stories of the year. Remember this is just one view of the year's events. If you think we've missed anything important let us know via LinkedIn, Twitter or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

Lafarge and Holcim merger
The year has been dominated by one story: the merger of the two largest European-based cement producers, Lafarge and Holcim. The implications are massive. At a stroke the new company can dispose of less profitable units, clear debts and benefit from new mega-economies of scale. As Europe emerges from the recession, LafargeHolcim will be ready. Worldwide it is a rebuff to the consolidating Chinese cement producers who are poised, if they wish, to emerge from China and dominate international markets. The process has appeared surprisingly smooth so far with considerable forward planning. This week the European Commission has approved the proposed merger.

Lafarge CEO Bruno Lafont described the deal as 'a merger of equals'. What he didn't say is that the merger will leave LafargeHolcim with no equal. However, one question remains. Once the merger is complete will the new company be profitable?

China heads abroad
State planners in Hebei Province revealed plans to move excess cement production capacity outside of China in their usual sparse style. The quiet tone of the announcement failed to match its intentions to move 30Mt of capacity abroad by 2023. It is the next step after becoming the world's biggest cement producer, capturing swathes of the equipment market and consolidating its many local producers. How Chinese cement producers will fare in the wider global market remains to be seen. Yet while its economy remains strong the gobbling up of European utilities by Chinese companies suggests that, if all else fails, money talks.

Coal for India
If you can't fire-up your kiln you can't make clinker. With Indian cement producers reporting falling profits in 2014 the squabbling over coal allocation in the country summed up some of the input cost and infrastructure problems facing the country's cement industry. The coal blocks are due to be auctioned off from January 2015. Meanwhile analysts predict that Indian cement demand is unlikely to grow until 2016.

Sub-Saharan scares and skirmishes
The creation of Lafarge Africa means that three producers are now in a skirmish in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lafarge, Dangote and PPC. All three companies are present in multiple countries and expanding fast. This week, for example, PPC announced proposed merger plans with AfriSam. Given the low cement consumption per capita in this region the benefits of getting in early are immense. Unfortunately, there are many speed bumps along this road to development. One is the on-going Ebola epidemic. Left unchecked it could cause untold economic damage.

ASEAN set to open up
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is set to drop import tariffs in 2015 as it establishes a common market. Already in preparation cement producers have started to change their strategies, thinking regionally instead of nationally. Holcim Philippines, for example, announced in February 2014 that it was considering delaying building a new plant as it analysed the situation. The region, including high-growth countries like Indonesia and Thailand, could see its cement industry go into overdrive. However, the benefits may not be uniform as countries like the Philippines may lose out.

The US, fracking and falling oil prices
Of the western economies recovering from the 2007 recession, the US cement industry has rebounded the fastest, due in part to fracking which has brought down the cost of energy. The Brent Crude price hit a low of US$60 per barrel this week and this has consequences for everybody in the cement industry as fuel procurement strategies adapt.

For starters, cement producers gain a fuel bill cut as the cost of fuels fall. Producers in Egypt who have been frenziedly converting kilns from gas to coal may suddenly find their margins improve. Low energy prices also take away financial motivation to co-process alternative fuels in cement kilns. Finally, what of the giant infrastructure projects in Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) like Saudi Arabia? Take away the petrodollars propping up these builds and cement demand may evaporate.

For more a more detailed look at trends in the cement industry check out the Global Cement Top 100 Report.

Global Cement Weekly will return on 7 January 2015. Enjoy the festive break!

This week we heard news of two potential bidders for Lafarge and Holcim divestments. However, for a change it was where they will not be bidding that was of interest: Brazil. India's UltraTech Cement and Colombia's Cementos Argos now seem to have no interest in developing their positions in South America's largest cement market, having both previously stated their interest.

The Brazilian assets to be sold are three integrated cement plants and two grinding plants that share a capacity of 3.6Mt/yr (as well as a one ready-mix plant). Cementos Argos came out and said that it would not be bidding. UltraTech's position is more of a rumour, given by 'a source close to the company' that was not revealed by local media. However, both stories suggest that Brazil is currently not a good place for cement producers to buy up assets.

The reasons for these decisions are related to the state of the Brazilian economy, which has seen sub 2% growth in the last 11 quarters. The economy actually contracted by 0.9% in the second quarter of 2014 and by 0.25% in the third quarter of 2014. A 0.2% rise in the fourth quarter will be negated by a fall of 0.28% in the first quarter of 2015. Over the course of 2015 the IMF forecasts growth of 1.4%.

Although Brazilian cement production has risen from around 40Mt/yr in 2006 to around 70Mt/yr in 2013, it has been growing by lower and lower amounts each year. In 2013, it rose by 1.5% year-on-year, down from a 6.7% rise in 2012, an 8.3% rise in 2011 and a near 16% rise in 2010. Taken along with the IMF's GDP growth forecast, there is a genuine chance that Brazilian cement sales could plateau in 2014 or 2015. There will certainly be better places to try to sell cement over the next couple of years, hence the eagerness with which Cementos Argos declared its position.

One country that Cementos Argos has said it's looking at Lafarge and Holcim assets in is Mexico. Its economy is anticipated to grow by 3.5% in 2015, more than twice as quickly as Brazil and far more than the Americas as a whole (2.2%). Another anticipated strong performer in 2015 will be the US (3.1%), where Cementos Argos acquired assets in 2013. This week also saw the news that the Portland Cement Association's 8.1% cement consumption forecast for 2014 will be met.

Taking this all together, it appears that economic growth, and hence cement demand growth, will return to North America in earnest in 2015. Meanwhile South America's largest market is starting to lag behind. How will the rest of the two continents fare in 2015 and beyond?

A significant amount of recent news has come from the fallout from the proposed LafargeHolcim merger. Lafarge and Holcim, as well as a raft of global cement producers, are stepping up activity and those outside the deal are starting to jostle for position. They will want to take advantage of the many opportunities to snap something up from the long list of assets to be sold.

First up, Turkey's Sabançi Holding has been reported to be investigating the LafargeHolcim divestments, although the actual targets were not reported. There are none on offer in Turkey itself but potential Sabançi interests could lie in nearby Romania, Serbia or Hungary. Of course, it isn't possible to rule out any wider ambitions.

Next we have Elementia, which has acquired Lafarge's former stake in their Mexican joint venture, prior to the announcement of its initial public offering there. In Singapore, CVC Partners and the Government entered discussions over the purchase of assets. It was earlier agreed by the Singaporean competition authorities that Lafarge and Holcim would be able to merge due to them being relatively small players in that market.

Meanwhile, in the UK and the US, HeidelbergCement is positioning itself via share deals in its subsidiary Hanson Building Products so that it may bid for the LafargeHolcim divestments in the US and UK. Hanson Building Products has filed for an Initial Public Offering in the US in preparation for HeidelbergCement to sell it later in the year. This sounds like a case of HeidelbergCement focusing on its core markets of cement.

There have also been moves by Lafarge and Holcim, most notably their approach this week to the European Union (EU) prior to the merger. The multinationals plan to iron out possible EU concerns over the merged company's market power before filing for approval of the deal, the step that starts an EU review.

Activity seems to be hotting up ahead of the LafargeHolcim merge and it will only intensify. It will be interesting to see which other multinational and regional players decide to 'show their hand' through the rest of the merger process. There are many more assets in Austria, France, Germany, the UK, Canada, Mauritius, the Philippines and Brazil to be divided up before the LafargeHolcim merger can be completed.

It has been another week of financial results from the global cement industry, with big hitters Lafarge and Holcim reporting what some might call 'concerning' numbers for the first half of the year. Both cement producers are, of course, making preparations ahead of their proposed merger, which could come to pass within 12 months, all being well. But are things well?

In the first half of 2014, Lafarge saw its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) decrease by 2%, with sales down by 5%. Lafarge noted that its shrinking size, this week highlighted by the sale of its Pakistani assets, and adverse exchange rate effects did not help matters. CEO Bruno Lafont was up-beat in asserting that North American and European markets would see improvements over the rest of 2014. Meanwhile, things are slightly better at Holcim, which reported an increased EBITDA (albeit just by 0.2%) as well as like-for-like sales that were up by 4.8% compared to the first half of 2013. However, its increased sales volumes and revenues could not prevent a fall in net income.

If one takes these results together, the first half of 2014 seems to been one of general stagnation for the future LafargeHolcim. It is important to remember that even more asset sales are inevitable, mainly from the weaker performer Lafarge. We are left to ponder how the new LafargeHolcim will perform in 12 months time.

At present, without serious improvement across all world economies, it is likely that LafargeHolcim (and other multinational producers) will continue to be on relatively shaky ground post-merger. The reality is that many of the promising markets that the company will serve are no longer rapidly-growing emerging economies, but are instead caught up in lower-than-expected growth (for example in Indonesia, India, China and Brazil), political disputes (for example in Algeria, Thailand, Eastern Ukraine and the Middle East) and other damaging events (for example the Ebola outbreak in West Africa). The global economy is certainly 'uneven,' as Holcim's CEO Bernard Fontana said in Holcim's results statement, but it also seems to be getting more uneven. Simple geographical and income groupings for countries, for example 'Far East = Profit,' are becoming increasingly out of date.

Navigating such a rapidly-changing world is, in one sense, less difficult for larger companies than smaller ones because risk can be spread over a much wider range of economies. However, larger companies are also slower to react to changes and the appropriateness of their responses may not be ideally tailored to individual markets. When LafargeHolcim comes to be, it will likely suffer also due to the inherent difficulties of merging two such large firms that may not see eye-to-eye on all issues. This will have to be done without some of its best assets and a lot of its 'run-time' will be dedicated to the merging process. In such an environment it is easier to be distracted from its main tasks: is it possible that this effect is already becoming apparent? As Lafarge and Holcim's latest results show, there is little room for deterioration in their results.

There is a key question: Is the LafargeHolcim first half EBITDA slide a sign of poor markets or related to preparations for the merger that shareholders will tolerate as they anticipate future riches? Will LafargeHolcim be profitable in the long-run?

This week saw Lafarge and Holcim announce a list of proposed asset divestments following months of research by a Divestment Committee. The mass divestment is planned so that competition authorities around the world can approve the proposed Euro40bn merger of equals to produce LafargeHolcim. When the merger was initially proposed on 7 April 2014, Lafarge and Holcim estimated that some Euro5bn of asset disposals would be necessary and they are already well on their way.

Europe is facing the brunt of asset divestments, as this is where the companies have the largest market overlap. Holcim plans to sell all of its assets in Hungary and Serbia, while Lafarge will sell all of its assets in Germany, Romania and the UK (with one possible cement plant exception). In Austria, Lafarge has opted to divest its Mannersdorf cement plant, while in France it would sell its Reunion Island assets (excluding its shareholding in Ciments de Bourbon). Holcim plans to sell all of its assets in France except for its Altkirch cement plant and aggregates and ready-mix sites in the Alsace Region.

Elsewhere in the world, Holcim plans to sell all of its assets in Canada and Mauritius. In the Philippines the companies plan to combine the operations of Lafarge Republic Inc and Holcim Philippines Inc and to divest Lafarge's Bulacan, Norzagaray and Iligan plants. In Brazil, where Lafarge and Holcim both have a significant presence, the companies plan to announce their intentions after collaboration with CADE, the country's competition authority. There is little market overlap in most of Asia and the Middle East: Lafarge's assets in Malaysia and Syria complement Holcim's strong presence in India and Indonesia.

So far, Lafarge has consolidated its African operations by establishing Lafarge Africa and selling its assets in Ecuador. Holcim has been granted approval from the European Competition Commission to purchase Cemex West in Germany and, most recently, Lafarge has announced that it intends to buy out its joint venture partner, Anglo American, from Lafarge Tarmac in order to sell the entire business.

While the asset divestment list shows good will to global competition authorities, there remains no guarantee that Lafarge and Holcim will not need to divest even more assets. However, by nominating such a large number of divestments in the first instance, the companies have shown willing to cooperate with anti-monopoly measures, potentially easing the path of the LafargeHolcim mega-merger.

The creation of Lafarge Africa, the clearance of the Cemex West acquisition by Holcim in Germany and the sale of Lafarge's assets in Ecuador all hint at the scale of business that LafargeHolcim will command when it comes into existence. Despite the media saturation of coverage on the merger the implications in developing markets are still worthwhile exploring, especially in Latin American and Africa.

In sub-Saharan Africa, Lafarge is merging its cement companies in Nigeria and South Africa to create Lafarge Africa. Analysts Exotix have described the move as, 'the birth of a leading player on a continental scale'. Indeed, if Lafarge wanted to grow Lafarge Africa to encompass its many other African cement producing subsidiaries it could hold at least 17 integrated cement plants (including plants in north Africa) with a cement production capacity of at least 40Mt/yr in 10 countries and infrastructure in others. That puts it head-to-head with Dangote's plans to meet 40Mt/yr by the end of 2014 through its many expansion projects. Following these two market leaders would come South African-based cement producer PPC with its expansion plans around the continent.

Meanwhile across the Atlantic in Latin America the Lafarge-Holcim merger threatens Cemex. Unlike in Africa where Lafarge has a ubiquitous but disparate presence, Lafarge and Holcim's cement assets are more evenly scattered around the Caribbean, Central and South America. In terms of cement production capacity Cemex and Lafarge-Holcim will both have around 30Mt/yr, with Cemex just in front. The next biggest cement producers in Latin America will be Votorantim (present mainly in Brazil) with just over 20Mt/yr and Cementos Argos (Columbia) with about the same. This includes some new acquisitions in the United States for the growing Columbian producer. In Ecuador Lafarge and Holcim held over 50% of the market share, hence the sale by Lafarge of its assets to Union Andina de Cementos for US$553m.

Depending on how well the merger integrates the two companies, corals the various subsidiaries and implements strategic thinking the merger could just create business as usual with little disruption to the existing order. Yet in both continents the merger has the opportunity to shake up and reinvigorate the cement markets as existing players suddenly discover serious new competition and react accordingly.

Africa has a population of 1.1bn and it had a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of US$2320/capita in 2013. South America had a population of 359m in 2010 and a GDP of US$8929/capita. This compares to US$27,250/capita in Europe and US$54,152/capita in the US. The economic development potential for each continent is humongous. Post-merger, LafargeHolcim will be first or second in line for some of this potential in Latin America and Africa.

Holcim released its first quarter results for 2014 this week and benefits of a merger seemed clear: both sales and profit were down. Net sales fell by 5.4% to Euro3.35bn and net income fell by 57.5% to Euro65.6m. However, Chief Financial Officer Thomas Aebischer was upbeat on meeting the regulatory requirements of any merger and the prospect of divestment opportunities.

This week we have a guest contributor - Andy Gboka, an analyst at Exotix LLP, a London-based broker specialised in Frontier markets – writing about the impact in Africa from the Lafarge-Holcim merger:

No change in Sub-Saharan Africa cement markets

Looking at (1) the location and size of the assets that both groups operate across the region but also (2) the expansion projects recently announced, we do not anticipate any upheaval in the competitive landscape, at least in the medium term.

Potential reshuffle of African assets

We identify Nigeria and Morocco as the main countries where the two companies are likely to reorganise their operations post-deal.

After the market excitement Lafarge / Holcim's price gains have averaged 9% since the announcement versus +8% the same day (04/04/14). We think it timely to discuss, from a competition angle, the likely impact on sector dynamics in Africa.

Starting with Sub-Saharan Africa where Lafarge and Holcim have been present for decades, the two groups have grown their output capability over time to reach a combined ~20.7Mt/yr. Holcim is a much smaller cement producer through its ~2.6Mt/yr in Ivory Coast, Guinea and Nigeria, whereas the French manufacturer is a regional leader with ~18.1Mt/yr capacity across 10 different countries. North African exposure paints a similar picture, as the Swiss company's installed capacity is ~9.6Mt/yr versus ~21.6Mt/yr for Lafarge (including their respective shareholdings in Lafarge Cement Egypt).

Although we do not believe the proposed merger will significantly alter Africa's competitive environment, business reorganisation is likely in:

(1) Nigeria. LafargeHolcim would control more than ~70% of the United Cement Company of Nigeria Ltd (UNICEM, 2.5Mt/yr in Calabar) which, in our view, is a suitable context for minorities' buyout.

(2) Morocco. More than ~50% of the industry's production capacity is controlled by the two players, a situation that may lead to asset disposals after review by the local competition commission.

Beyond the corporate implications, this announcement also puts into perspective the multiples investors are willing to pay for companies operating in Africa. Indeed, for 2014/2015 financial year the enterprise multiple (enterprise value / earnings before depreciation and amortisation) and price-to-book ratio for the main stocks listed in Nigeria and Kenya average 10.3x and 2.9x respectively, vs. 8.4x and 1.3x for LafargeHolcim (Bloomberg). While demand growth prospects in the teen digits or margins above ~25% (especially in Nigeria) would support a premium for the former names, we think the extent of that premium is questionable.

The best illustration is Dangote Cement, whose market capitalisation stands at ~US$25bn for total capacity estimated at 50 – 55Mt/yr by the 2016 financial year, relatively high when compared to the expected ~US$55bn market capitalisation for LafargeHolcim with (1) 427Mt/yr cement capacity globally and (2) ~60% of its revenue from emerging markets. This underpins our cautious stance on the sector.

Source: Andy Gboka, analyst at Exotix LLP (London-Based broker specialised in Frontier markets).

Andy Gboka will be speaking at the forthcoming Global CemTrader Conference, taking place in London on 2 -3 June 2014.