Displaying items by tag: SNIC

Brazil: Data from the Brazilian National Cement Industry Association (SNIC) shows that sales of cement fell by 3% year-on-year to 63.1Mt in 2022 from 64.4Mt in 2021. Sales fell in the Nordeste, Sudeste and Sui regions but grew elsewhere. Exports declined by 14% to 0.40Mt from 0.47Mt. SNIC has blamed the falling sales on a declining real estate sector, high inflation rates and a poor response from a new house-building campaign. It also attributed the Football World Cup in late 2022 as having a detrimental effect on national cement sales! SNIC forecasts sales growth of 1% in 2023 despite considerable market uncertainty.

Brazil: Cement producers sold 47.7Mt of cement in the first nine months of 2022, down by 3% year-on-year from the same period in 2021. The Brazilian National Cement Industry Association (SNIC) has forecast a 2% year-on-year decline in full-year cement sales to 63.7Mt in 2022. The association foresees global finance-related challenges and high energy and raw materials costs during the fourth quarter of 2022. Annual cement sales previously grew by 23% to 65Mt in 2021 from 53Mt in 2019.

SNIC president Paulo Camillo Penna said “Our expectation for 2022 was to maintain the gains of this three-year period, but, unfortunately, due to high interest rates, indebtedness and cost pressure, we were not able to.”

Brazil: Sales of cement fell by 2.7% year-on-year to 30.8Mt in the first half of 2022 from 31.6Mt in the same period in 2021. Data from the Brazilian National Cement Industry Association (SNIC) shows that domestic sales and exports decreased by 2.7% to 30.6Mt and by 8.5% to 0.19Mt respectively.

Paulo Camillo Penna, president of SNIC said, “Throughout the year, with the successive worsening of the economic environment, high interest rates, inflation and commodity prices added to geopolitical instability, caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, have impacted the economy and the entire Brazilian industrial sector. In view of this scenario, the cement industry's expectation of ensuring the gains obtained from 2019 to 2021 is heading towards an undesirable frustration.”

Brazil: The Brazilian cement market closed the first quarter of 2022 with a decline in sales year-on-year, according to data from the Brazilian National Cement Industry Association (SNIC). This was in part due to strong rains that affected parts of the country in January and February 2022. In March 2022, however, there was some recovery, with a 0.3% year-on-year increase in sales, to 5.53Mt.

Between January and March 2022, 14.8Mt of cement were shipped within Brazil, compared to 15.2Mt in the same period in 2021, a fall of 2.6%. Total sales, which include exports, totalled 14.91Mt, a 2.2% contraction compared to 15.25Mt in the same quarter of 2021.

SNIC said that the sector’s March 2022 performance had been bolstered by real estate projects, although this was not expected to continue. According to SNIC head Paulo Camillo Penna, self-construction, an important inducer of cement consumption, continues to slow down due to high unemployment

Brazil: The Brazilian National Cement Industry Association (SNIC) has recorded cement sales of 64.7Mt by Brazilian cement producers in 2021, up by 6.6% year-on-year from 2020 levels. Home construction work, property development and infrastructure building all contributed to the rise. Capacity utilisation rose to 69% from 65% across the country’s 94Mt/yr, 91-plant cement network.

Brazil: Members of the Brazilian National Cement Industry Association (SNIC) have committed to a 34% reduction in the CO₂ emissions of their cement production to 375kg/t by 2050 from 564kg/t in 2019. Ten cement producers including Cimento Tupi, CSN Cimentos, InterCement and Votorantim signed the commitment. With the industry's forecast rate of growth in cement production capacity, this will result in possible total CO₂ emissions of 45Bnt in 2050 compared to 36.7Bnt in 2020.

Planned CO₂ emissions reduction investments before 2032 are US$637m across the industry.

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN) Cimentos was confirmed this week as the agreed buyer for Holcim’s Brazilian cement business for US$1.03bn. The deal includes five integrated cement plants, four grinding plants and 19 ready-mix concrete facilities. CSN is now poised to become Brazil’s third-largest cement producer by production capacity after Votorantim and InterCement. Or second place if you believe CSN’s cheeky claims about a competitor’s idle capacity!

Figure 1: Map of cement plants included in CSN Cimentos’ deal to buy LafargeHolcim Brazil assets. Source: CSN Investor Relations website.

CSN originally started out in steel production and this remains the major part of its operations to the present day. In 2020 it reported revenue of US$5.74bn. Around 55% of this came from its steel business, 42% from mining, 5% in logistics and only 3% came from its cement segment. CSN’s path in the cement sector started in 2009 when it started grinding blast furnace slag and clinker at its Presidente Vargas Plant at Volta Redonda in Rio de Janeiro state. It then started clinker production in 2011 at its integrated Arcos plant in Minas Gerais. Not a lot happened for the next decade, publicly at least, as the country faced an economic downturn and national cement sales sunk to a low in 2017. From around 2019, CSN Cimentos then started talking about a number of new proposed plant projects elsewhere in Brazil, dependent on market growth and an anticipated initial public offering (IPO). These included plants at Ceará, Sergipe, Pará and Paraná and expansion to the existing units in the south-east. Then CSN Cimentos agreed to buy Cimento Elizabeth for US$220m in July 2021.

It is worth noting that the Holcim acquisition is subject to approval by the local competition authority. For example, the Cimento Elizabeth plant and Holcim’s Caaporã plant are both in Paraíba state and within about 30km of each other. If approved, this would give CSN Cimentos two of the four integrated plants in the state, with the other two operated by Votorantim and InterCement respectively. CSN also stands to pick up four integrated plants in Minas Gerais from Holcim to add to the one it holds at present. Although this would seem to be of less concern due to the high number of plants in the state.

Holcim has made a point of saying that its divestment in Brazil is part of its strategy to refocus on sustainable building solutions with the proceeds going towards its Solutions & Products business following the Firestone acquisition that completed in early 2021. It has also stated previously that it wants to concentrate on core markets with long term prospects. In this context a major steelmaker like CSN diversifying into cement is a contrast. Both industries are high CO₂ emitters so CSN is hardly moving away from carbon-intensive sectors. Yet the two have operational, economic and sustainability synergies through the use of slag in cement production. This puts CSN Cimentos in company with Votorantim in Brazil and JSW Cement in India, two other steel manufacturers that also produce cement. Whatever else happens at the 26th United Nations Climate Change conference (COP26) in November 2021, it seems unlikely that global demand for steel or cement is likely to be significantly reduced. CSN Cimentos is now going to resume its IPO of shares to raise funds for the Holcim acquisition.

Acquisitions are all about timing. The CSN Cimentos-Holcim deal follows the purchase of CRH Brazil by Buzzi Unicem’s Companhia Nacional de Cimento (CNC) joint-venture earlier in 2021. As mentioned above, the cement market in Brazil has been doing well since it started recovering in 2018. The coronavirus pandemic barely slowed this down due to weak lockdown measures compared to other countries. The current run of sales growth may be tapering off based on the latest National Cement Industry Association (SNIC) figures for August 2021. Rolling annual totals on a monthly basis had been growing since mid-2019 but this started to slow in May 2021. Annual sales will be up in 2021 based on the figures so far this year but after that, who knows? A CSN investors’ day document in December 2020 predicted, as one would expect, steady cement consumption growth in Brazil until at least 2025, based on correlated forecast growth in the general economy. Yet fears of inflation, rising prices and political uncertainty ahead of the next general election in late 2022 may undermine this. InterCement, for example, cancelled a proposed IPO in July 2021 due to low valuations amid investor uncertainty. CSN Cimentos may encounter similar issues with its own planned IPO or face over-leveraging itself when it picks up the tab for LafargeHolcim Brazil. Either way, CSN decided to take the risk on its path to becoming Brazil’s third largest cement producer.

Our latest look at South America starts by posing the question: how far can the market in Brazil keep growing? As Graph 1 shows below, cement sales skyrocketed through the coronavirus pandemic, due to a general recovery locally that started in 2018 and relatively weak lockdown measures compared to other countries. Rolling annual totals on a monthly basis from the National Cement Industry Association (SNIC) suggest that this growth period tailed off from May 2021. SNIC was also keen to point out that, despite nearly hitting nearly a 20% growth rate at one point, the sector was still 11% behind where it was before the lull that lasted from 2015 to 2018. As ever the association has an eye on potential risks. At present these include legislative reforms, price inflation and carbon pricing. It noted that Mexico, Colombia, Chile and Argentina all price carbon already but said that the country ‘has a great ally in the Brazilian cement industry’ on the issue.

Elsewhere the big story in Brazil has been the ongoing sale of Holcim’s local assets. The latest news at the start of August 2021 was that the bidders included CSN Cimentos, Cimentos Mizu, Cimento Apodi, InterCement and Votorantim. The first three companies were reportedly working in a consortium in an attempt to buy 10 production plants while InterCement and Votorantim were focusing on smaller bids to avoid the ire of the competition regulators. Aside from this, CSN Cimentos agreed to buy Cimento Elizabeth for US$220m in July 2021 and Companhia Nacional de Cimento (CNC), part of Italy-based Buzzi Unicem’s 50% subsidiary BCPAR, acquired CRH Brasil following approval by the regulators. Of note on the production side, Votorantim Cimentos started operation of a new production line at its Pecém grinding plant in Ceará in July 2021.

Graph 1: Cement sales in selected South American countries in first half of year, 2019 – 2021. Source: Local cement associations and national statistics offices.

Over in Peru the now familiar gap-tooth pattern of stunted growth in 2020 can be seen in the sector’s cement sales, but sales rebounded far stronger than comparable sized markets in Argentina and Colombia. Sales nearly doubled to 6.42Mt in the first half of 2021 from 3.33Mt in the same period in 2020 and were significantly higher than the 4.94Mt recorded in the first half of 2020. Imports are also worth watching. Combined cement and clinker importers nearly doubled from 0.76Mt in the first half of 2019 to 1.4Mt in the first half of 2021. Clinker imports made up about two thirds of this figure and the Association of Cement Producers (ASOCEM) noted in June 2021 that 88% of the imported cement came from Vietnam while about two thirds of the clinker came from Japan and Indonesia.

Away from the market data, both Cementos Pacasmayo’s and Unión Andina de Cementos’ (UNACEM) financial results bounced back in the first half of 2021. Cementos Pacasmayo attributed the rebound to sales of bagged cement to the self-construction sector and public sector reconstruction demand. UNACEM also noted the effect of the self-construction sector and said it expected its ‘solid’ cement despatches to continue for the rest of the year despite the risk of a third wave of coronavirus in the country and the messy presidential elections. Other stories of note so far in 2021 include new developments in Cementos Interoceanicos long-held plans to build a 1.0Mt/yr cement plant in Puno and a major upgrade planned to Yura’s integrated plant in Arequipa.

In Colombia local cement despatches grew by 34% year-on-year to 6.20Mt in the first half of 2021 from 4.61Mt in the same period in 2020. Cementos Argos reported major improvements in sales, sales volumes of cement and earnings due to the lockdown in 2020. However, a national wave of protests calling for social reform that started in the spring of 2012 forced the company to shut down its integrated Yumbo plant for over a month. This represented 18% of its national sales. The output of other plants in the country was also negatively affected by roadblocks created by the unrest. Cemex reported the same problems in the country.

Finally, Argentina’s cement despatches rose by 44% to 5.52Mt in the first half of 2021 from 3.83Mt in the same period in 2020. Loma Negra reported that its sales, sales volumes and earnings were all up by a similar rate. The subsidiary of Brazil-based InterCement started up the kiln on its new 2.7Mt/yr production line at the L’Amalí cement plant in Olavarría in June 2021 and commissioning of the new mill and despatch centre on the line were reportedly coming soon in early August 2021. Earlier in the year, in May 2021, Holcim Argentina inaugurated a new 0.5Mt/yr clinker production line at its Malagueño cement plant in Cordoba. These expansion projects were ordered long before coronavirus appeared so it will take a while to see their effects upon the local market. However, the government intervened in June 2021 when it persuaded some building materials producers to agree to reference prices in a bid to curb mounting inflation.

This is what recovery looks like so far in 2021 in the larger cement producing countries in South America. The Brazilian market’s growth phase may be waning after a furious period that even coronavirus wasn’t allowed to slow. Peru’s potential seems set to take off, Colombia’s rebound should have been greater (but it was dented by social unrest) and Argentina seems to be resetting to its usual level. Whatever else happens in the coming months the story to watch going forward will be which company picks up Holcim’s assets in Brazil.

Brazil: Cement sales totalled 31.5Mt in the first half of 2021, up by 16% year-on-year. The National Cement Industry Association (SNIC) attributed the growth to home renovations and new construction projects. The association has forecast total sales for 2021 of 64.2Mt, corresponding to an increase of 6% compared to 2020 levels. It expects the same segments to drive growth in 2022, though at a lower rate.

LafargeHolcim retained its ability to surprise this week with the news that it may be making preparations to leave Brazil. Local press in Minas Gerais revealed on 20 April 2021 that the company was about to try and sell its operations in the country. The building materials producer has not made a public statement yet on the matter, it may not until a deal is done and/or this could all be a great big misunderstanding. So treat the following with caution.

Firstly, LafargeHolcim deciding to sell in Brazil fits with the selective approach increasingly shown by the non-Chinese cement multinationals in recent years. It famously decided to sell up in South-East Asia from 2018 and it got as far as divesting assets in Indonesia and Malaysia. It also tried to sell in the Philippines but the local competition commission didn’t give permission for the proposed deal in the end. As Global Cement Weekly mentioned at the time this was a bold move and doing the same in Brazil seems similarly decisive now. It’s a big market to leave! CRH and HeidelbergCement have both talked openly as well about taking a value-first approach to their divestment strategies rather than trying to retain blanket coverage. However, just because a sale in Brazil by LafargeHolcim sounds right doesn’t mean it is right.

Secondly, data from the National Cement Industry Association (SNIC) shows that the Brazilian cement industry had a good year in 2020. Despite the relentlessly bad news from the coronavirus pandemic, the Brazilian government decided to keep the economy mostly open, allowing the cement industry to continue its recovery since 2018. The sector reported an 11% rise year-on-year in cement sales to 60Mt in 2020. So far in 2021 it has noted a 19% rise year-on-year to 15.3Mt in the first quarter of 2021. Yet, the association forecast slower growth in 2021 as a whole and has warned that the first quarter figures in 2021 don’t show a true picture due to a decline in sales per working day so far in 2021 despite an apparent growth in absolute figures. On the surface it’s a good time to sell cement assets in the country since the sector has been riding a recovery but the general outlook for the country is looking gloomy especially considering the ongoing scale of its coronavirus outbreak and the uncertain damage this may do to the economy as a whole.

Whether or not LafargeHolcim is actually selling up in Brazil or not it, follows the conclusion of the CRH Brazil acquisition by Buzzi Unicem’s Companhia Nacional de Cimento (CNC) joint-venture that was also announced this week after approval by the completion authority. The assets that CRH Brasil has now sold include three integrated cement plants and two grinding plants in the south-east of the country. The subsidiary sold approximately 2.8Mt of cement in 2020. If nothing else this suggests that there should be companies out there pursuing a different strategy to LafargeHolcim, CRH, HeidelbergCement and the rest who will be only too happy to build their portfolio if LafargeHolcim’s Brazilian business does go on sale.

CRH originally bought its plants in Brazil as part of a package deal when Lafarge and Holcim merged in 2015 and any potential sales by LafargeHolcim also link back to this. LafargeHolcim has spent much of the last six years working out what kind of company it wants to be. Certainly, since the current chief executive officer Jan Jenisch took charge it has had the air of a company with a mission. The Firestone Building Products acquisition earlier in 2021 is an example of this, propelling the group away from the triad of cement, concrete and aggregates as the carbon risks of heavy building materials heat up. There is something fitting perhaps that at the company’s next annual general meeting its shareholders will be asked whether they want to change the company’s name to Holcim at the group level. It’s a small thing, all market brands will remain as they are, but it may bookend the post-merger era as much as asset divestments in Indonesia and... potentially Brazil.