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SNIC, the Brazilian national cement industry union, was being cautious this week but signs of improvement were there. Its cement sales data showed a 3% year-on-year rise to 40.5Mt for the first nine months of 2019 from 39.4Mt in the same period in 2018. SNIC President Paulo Camillo Penna was keen to pour cold water over the figures with a reminder that the truck driver’s strike and an economic slowdown in 2018 had unnaturally depressed industry sales. He didn’t want to ruin the party too much though. Comments followed about a National Confederation of Industry (CNI) survey forecasting growth for the next six months and market research supporting growing residential construction.

Graph 1: Cement sales in Brazil for Q1 – 3, 2014 – 2019. Source: SNIC.

As Graph 1 above shows the local industry has been through the wringer in recent years. Cement sales peaked in 2014 before the national economy was hit by falling commodity and oil prices that contributed to a recession as well as the Petrobras political crisis. At the start of 2017 Camillo Penna described the situation as the worst in the industry’s history. From the peak to the trough cement sales plummeted by 27%.

Camillo Penna’s caution now may have something to do with his previous prediction that the industry was going to recover from the second half of 2018. The sales may not have perked up but merger and acquisition activity did, with the European multinationals Buzzi Unicem and Vicat buying stakes in BCPAR (Grupo Ricardo Brennand) and Cimento Planalto (Ciplan) respectively. So far in 2019 it has been quietly optimistic but not without the odd hiccup. There have been a few new plant project announcements from Brennand Group, Votorantim and CSN Cimentos. Yet, InterCement converted its integrated Pedro Leopoldo plant in Minas Gerais to a terminal. Cimento Tupi reportedly ran into trouble with its investors when it tried to merge with its parent company following defaulting on loan payments in 2018. Notably, the country’s two cement associations also released a Cement Technology Roadmap to 2050 in April 2019. It plans to reduce specific CO2 emissions by over 30% from 2014 to 375kg CO2/t of cement in 2050 amongst other ambitions.

On the corporate side, Votorantim’s domestic sales rose by 3% year-on-year to US$771m in the first half of 2019 from US$745m in the same period in 2018. It attributed the growth to improved prices. Other news of note included the acquisition of a mortar plant in Belém, Pará state and plans to upgrade its clinker grinding unit at Pecém in Ceará. InterCement’s cement and clinker sales volumes rose by 6.8% to 4.04Mt from 3.78Mt. It declared that this was way ahead of the industry average of 1.5%. Sales revenue fell slightly, possibly due to high production overcapacity and competition on prices. Earnings were also reported as having improved in the second quarter partly due to a ‘significant’ reduction in its cost structure.

On the supplier side, refractory manufacturer RHI Magnesita reported that its margin recovery was ‘going quite well’ in Brazil during the first half of 2019. Stefan Borgas, RHI Magnesita’s chief executive officer (CEO) forecast that the margin in that country would help drive its business in the second half of 2019 and that the business was returning to the global average. RHI Magnesita also announced a Euro57.1m upgrade to its plant at Contagem, Belo Horizonte in Minas Gerais this week, including building a new regional headquarters for its South American business.

Everything seems to be coming together slowly for Brazil’s cement industry. Yet Camillo Penna and SNIC are right to be careful for another reason. The United Nations (UN) and various analysts are warning about the growing risk of global recession in 2020 based on indicators like the US yield curve. This could be especially devastating for an economy like Brazil’s that is heavily dependent on commodity markets. History may not repeat itself but the strength of that recovery may be tested sooner than anyone would like.

Brazil: Paulo Camillo Penna, the president of SNIC, the Brazilian national cement industry union, has expressed caution about growing cement sales so far in 2019. Data from SNIC shows that cement sales grew by 3% year-on-year to 40.5Mt in the first nine months of 2019 from 39.4Mt in the same period in 2018. Growth was driven by central and southern regions of the country, particularly in São Paulo. Exports grew by 22% to 90,000t from 74,000t. However, Paulo Camillo said that apparent growth in 2019 was partly due to a truckers strike in May 2018 that overly depressed the year’s sales. Despite this, he added that a survey of the construction industry released by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) was showing slow but steady improvement.

Brazil: Brazil’s National Syndicate of the Cement Industry (SNIC) has released August 2019 sales figures of 5.10Mt, up by 3.0% year-on-year from 4.95% in August 2019. This corresponds to an equal apparent consumption of cement in the country of 5.10Mt, up by 2.9% year-on-year from 4.96Mt in August 2018. Besides rising demand, SNIC points to non-repeating depressing factors acting on domestic cement capacity a year ago, including a lorry drivers’ strike.

Brazil: Data from SNIC, the Brazilian national cement industry union, shows that sales rose by 1.5% year-on-year to 25.8Mt in the first half of 2019 from 25.5Mt in the same period in 2018. SNIC president Paulo Camillo Penna said that the growth was in line with SNIC’s forecasts and that more ‘robust’ growth was anticipated the second half of the year. He added that the growth in cement sales had been supported by the real estate market and that the industrial sector was also growing.

Brazil: According to data from SNIC, the Brazilian national cement industry union, 4.6Mt of cement was sold in Brazil during May 2019. The figure is 27.6% higher compared to May 2018, with the large percentage increase due to the low base resulting from a truck drivers’ strike in May 2018. The first five months of 2019 recorded sales of 21.6Mt, a 5.6% year-on-year rise.

Brazil: Data from the National Union of Cement Industry (SNIC) shows that cement sales rose slightly to 12.7Mt in the first quarter of 2019 compared to 12.6Mt in the same period in 2018. Regional sales fell slightly to 6Mt in the southeast of the country including the major markets of Minas Gerais, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. However, most of the other regions reported growth, particularly the centre-west. SNIC president Paulo Camillo Penna said that March 2019’s performance was better than expected and that it was forecasting growth of 3% in 2019.

Brazil: The National Union of Cement Industry (SNIC) and the Brazilian Portland Cement Association (ABCP) have launched a Cement Technology Roadmap to 2050. SNIC president Paulo Camillo Penna said that the document would help the local industry cut its carbon footprint in the medium and long term. The roadmap was developed with the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI) of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), the International Finance Corporation (IFC) of the World Bank and a group of academics led by José Goldemberg.

The roadmap intends to reduce specific CO2 emissions by over 30% to 375kg CO2/t of cement in 2050. Key actions to 2030 include strengthening national and international cooperation, promoting new cement standards, raising the clinker substitution rate, promoting the use of alternative fuels in compliance with the National Policy on Solid Waste (PNRS), sharing best practive in energy efficiency and promoting resaerch and development in new greenohuse has mitigation technologies.

Brazil: Paulo Camillo, the president of SNIC, forecasts that cement sales will rise by 3% in 2019. If he is correct then it will be the first rise in four years for the local industry. Total cement sales fell by 1.1% year-on-year to 52.8Mt in 2018 from 53.4Mt in 2017. Particular falls in sales were noted in the north and northeast of the country, although exports rose by 14.3% to 88,000t. A truck drivers strike and general economic uncertainty reduced the effects of a positive first half to the year. The cement association also said that freight, fuels and electricity costs grew ‘significantly’ in 2018. However, it is optimistic that new legislation support co-processing of alternative fuels will partly help to alleviate this situation.

Brazil: SNIC, Brazil's national cement industry union, has announced that sales of cement in Brazil came to 4.6Mt in July 2018. The figure is down by 2.5% in comparison to July 2017. In the comparison for working days, the drop reached 4.6% in July 2018 in the year-on-year comparison, and 9.5% in comparison with June 2018. In the first seven months of 2018 domestic cement sales totalled 30.4Mt, a fall of 1.7%. SNIC forecasts a drop of 1-2% for 2018 compared to 2017.

Brazil: Paulo Camillo Penna, the president of the National Union of Cement Industry (SNIC), has blamed a fall in national cement sales on a truck drivers strike. Despite forecasting growth a strike in May 2018 caused sales to halt for 10 days. Cement sales fell by 1.5% year-on-year to 25.4Mt in the first half of 2018 from 25.8Mt in the same period of 2017.

SNIC originally expected the local cement industry to grow its sales by 1 – 2% in 2018. However, the poor first half of the year and a slowdown in the country’s economic growth has led SNIC to revise its forecast downwards.