Displaying items by tag: Import

Belarus: Belarusian cement producers recorded production volumes of 4.7Mt in 2019, corresponding to capacity utilisation of over 100%. Volumes increased by 4.6% from 4.5Mt in 2018. The Arab Times has reported that the country imported 0.5Mt of cement with a value of US$28m. US$18m of this came from Russia, while a further US$3.7m, US$2.8m and US$2.0m came from Latvia, Ukraine and Turkey respectively.

On 6 February 2020 the State Council of Ministers reinstated protectionist licencing laws requiring importers of cement to have special permissions to bring cement from outside of the Eurasian Economic Union into the country. This affects all current sources of imported cement to Belarus apart from Russia.

There have been rumours in the press this week that LafargeHolcim is weighing up its options in South Africa. Reports in the local press allege that the building materials company has tasked Credit Suisse Group with finding a buyer for its business. This may or may not be true, only time will tell, but South Africa certainly feels like a market where LafargeHolcim should be considering its future.

As a prominent but smaller producer in the country, Lafarge South Africa is behind PPC and AfriSam in terms of clinker production capacity. InterCement’s subsidiary Natal Portland Cement and Dangote’s subsidiary Sephaku Cement have a similar production base with an integrated plant each and one or two grinding plants. Halfway through 2019 LafargeHolcim was describing market conditions as ‘difficult’ in the country with it being the sole Sub-Saharan market holding back regional growth for the group. By the third quarter the situation had reportedly improved but net sales and cement sales volumes were flat for the year to date. A clearer picture should emerge when LafargeHolcim publishes its fourth quarter results at the end of February 2020.

PPC provided its view of the market in its half-year results to 30 September 2019. Its estimate was that the South African cement industry declined by 10 - 15% for the period, creating a competitive environment. It added that the situation had been, ‘exacerbated by imports and blender activity.’ Both its revenue and earnings fell year-on-year, although a 30% rise in fuel costs didn’t help either. Sephaku Cement suffered a similar time of it, with a 19% fall in cement sales volumes during the first half, although it reported improvement in the subsequent quarter. Overall, it blamed falling infrastructure investment for pressurising the market and allowing blending activity to mount. Sephaku Cement was also wary of the local carbon tax that started in June 2019 warning of a potential US$2.8m/yr bill.

PPC noted that cement imports had risen by 5% to 0.85Mt in the year to August 2019. This followed a lobbying effort by The Concrete Institute (TCI) in mid-2019 to implore the International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) to look into rising imports levels. At the time the TCI’s managing director Brian Perrie expressed incomprehension that a country with six different cement production companies with an over-capacity rate of 30% could be facing this problem. This latest broadside tails South Africa’s previous attempt to fend off imports when it instituted anti-dumping duties of 17 – 70% against importers from Pakistan in 2015. Imports duly fell in 2016 but rose again in 2017 and 2018, mainly from Vietnam and China.

All of this sounds familiar following LafargeHolcim’s departure from the ‘hyper-competitive’ South-East Asian countries in 2019. Those countries also suffered from competition and raging imports. Bloomberg pointed out in a report on the local industry in 2016 that PPC’s, AfriSam’s and LafargeHolcim’s kilns had an average age of 32 years, suggesting that efficiency and maintenance were going to be concerns in the future. Also of note is LargeHolcim’s decision to move its South African operations from one subsidiary, Lafarge Africa, to another, Caricement, in mid-2019.

Some level of market consolidation would certainly help local overcapacity. Plus, surely, LafargeHolcim’s mix of inland integrated capacity and a grinding plant near the coast could prove enticing to some of the Asian companies pumping out all of those imports. The thought on the minds of potential buyers everywhere must be, if LafargeHolcim chief Jan Jenisch was bold enough to sell up in South-East Asia, how can he not in South Africa?!”

Poland: The Association of Cement Producers in Poland estimates that cement production reached 19Mt in the country in 2019, around 1% more than in 2018. According to estimates, imports from Belarus and Turkey, the producers of which do not have to purchase EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) permits, grew by 0.25Mt and 50,000t respectively. The Association expects that sales will remain a similar level in 2020.

Polish electricity prices rose by about 35-40% during 2019, caused to a large extent by the surge in ETS permit prices. This, said Xavier Guesnu, CEO of Lafarge Polska, is leading to a marked increase in imports from outside of the EU. There are concerns that, if unchecked, this could adversely affect domestic cement producers.

Ghana: Carlos Ahenkorah, Deputy Minister of Trade and Industry, says that government is considering a temporary block on imports on cement. However, he added the catch that it would only do this if local producers could ensure ‘fair’ pricing, according to the News Statesman newspaper. He made the comments at an award dinner organised by CIMAF.

Kenya: Devki Group subsidiary National Cement has launched its second Kenyan plant in Salgaa in Nakuru county at a cost of US$58.0m. Business Daily News has reported that the 0.75Mt integrated plant will supply cement to Kenya, South Sudan and southern Ethiopia.

Devki Group chairman Narendra Raval said that the completion of a 0.75Mt/yr second line at National Cement’s 1.2Mt/yr Kajiado County plant would bring the group’s total capacity to 3.5Mt/yr in July 2020, in a speech in which he lobbied the government to ban clinker imports. “We are gearing towards fixing the country’s clinker gap and making Kenya a regional market for raw material in cement production,” said Raval. The group also produces its Simba brand cement in Uganda.

Ghana: The Department of Trade and Industry has declared a moratorium on the construction of new cement plants in response to a cement surplus on the domestic market. Chamber of Cement Manufacturers executive secretary George Dawson-Ahmoah said that consumption stands at 6.5Mt/yr nationally. Ghana’s eight producers are utilising 50% of an total installed capacity of 12Mt/yr, according to All Africa News. “The government is investigating measures to prevent imports,” said Carlos Kingsley Ahenkorah, Deputy Minister of Trade and Industry. This may involve cement quality certification by the Ghana Standard authority.

Philippines: Phinma Corp.’s cement subsidiary Philcement has ramped up its return to production with the commissioning of a 2.0Mt/yr integrated cement plant with attached terminal facilities in the port of Bataan. The Philippine Star has reported that the company, whose six integrated plants had a majority market share in the country prior to the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, has invested US$100m on its re-entry to production, including on the Bataan facility, since it announced the return of its Union cement brand to the market in 2018.

Phinma Corp. president and CEO Ramón del Rosario said, “We believe in this government’s ‘Build Build Build’ program and we want to help ensure the success of this program by augmenting supply and offering the highest quality cement to support critical projects.”

Phinma Corp. is among domestic producers awaiting the result of an appeal by the country’s importers against the legality of the government’s safeguard duty on imported cement.

South Africa: Morag Evans, the chief executive officer (CEO) of Databuild, says that local cement manufacturers are being ‘severely’ undermined by cheap imports from countries such as China, Vietnam and Pakistan. She adds that the government’s failure to stem the influx of these products could have a severe detrimental impact on an already struggling industry.

“In an industry already in the grips of a severe downturn owing to the decline in infrastructure development, not only are these imports negatively impacting the competitiveness of our local manufacturers, but independent studies have shown the quality of these international products to be inferior,” said Evans.

She also cited quality concerns with imported cement mentioning a study conducted by local manufacturer PPC. It found that, from 14 products tested from 10 different producers, most were either over or underweight and were also of inconsistent quality.

Evans has supported the Concrete Institute’s lobbying for a 45% import tariff on cement imports. However, she acknowledges that such a move could raise the price of cement and increase inflation in the general economy.

Databuild provides information about the construction industry in South Africa.

India: The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has lobbied the government in its Pre-Budget Memorandum 2020-21 over customs duties. The body is suggesting a reduction on the customs duty on packaging for use in bagging cement to 5% from 10%. There is currently no import tax on cement and duties of 5% and below on various clinker constituents.

Last month Soyuzcement, the Union of Russian Cement Producers, reported that cement production was on course to grow by 8% year-on-year to 58Mt in 2019. This estimate was based on growth from January to October 2019 followed by a modest rise in November.

Graph 1: Cement production in Russia, 2010 – 2019. Source: CM Pro, Ernst & Young.

The pickup is significant because it’s the country’s first annual resumption of growth since 2014. At that time low commodity prices, a worsening economy and international sanctions broke a fairly steady growth cycle that had started in 2000. The only blip in that run was the global economic downturn around 2008. In the medium to long term Soyuzcement’s review pinpointed growth drivers as being government-backed residential housing schemes, integrated land development projects and an increase in the construction of concrete roads. This increase has been driven by consumption growth in most regions, led by a 12% rise in the Central Federal District although the Volga Federal District started to slow in the second half of 2019.

Figure 1: Russian Federal Districts by cement production in 2016. Source: Soyuzcement.ru.

Anecdotally, this change in the fortunes of the Russian cement industry can be seen in the volume of news coverage on the Global Cement website over the last few years. The mean number of news stories on the country in 2016 and 2017, increased by half in 2018 and then again in 2019. Partly this is down to our attempts to increase our coverage of the region but it also shows a general trend. In the news specifically there haven’t been many new plant projects domestically but there has been a steady stream of upgrades and maintenance related stories. For example, Eurocement subsidiary Kavkazcement reported in recent weeks that it had installed a replacement dry kiln. This has been part of a group of upgrades that Eurocement has started in 2019. On the supplier side both Germany’s Gebr. Pfeiffer and Italy’s Bedeschi opened subsidiaries in Russia in 2019.

One thing that didn’t seem to slow down the growth were mounting tariffs on Russian exports into Ukraine. Russia’s neighbour first blocked imports of cement from Russia in May 2019 due to, what it said was a Russian ban on imports. It then followed this with an antidumping rate of 115% for imported clinker and Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) from Russia. It also penalised imports from Belarus and Moldova, although at lower rates. Russia’s cement export rates seemed untroubled by this, rising by 13.5% year-on-year to 0.8Mt in the first 10 months of 2019. Exports hit of high of just below 2Mt/yr in 2014 but have since stabilised at around 1Mt/yr. Imports reached around 5Mt/yr in the early 2010s and have been slowly declining since then, reaching 1.5Mt in 2018.

The lowered production rate that the Russian cement industry has faced over the last five years has been noteworthy given the apparent low capacity utilisation rate. The Global Cement Directory 2019 records the country as having a production capacity of 111Mt/yr. This gives Russia a capacity utilisation rate of 48% in 2018! Unlike, say, the countries in southern Europe that have had to rationalise their cement industries following the post-2008 decline, Russia may have structural aspects to the industry that have helped protect it from lower utilisation rates. These include relatively low export-import rates and the large size of the country with limited sea access to many regions. Most of its production capacity is located in the west but a sizable minority of plants are based further east across the Ural, Siberian and Far Eastern regions. Even under subdued economic conditions, plants in these places are likely to be less susceptible to foreign imports, for example.

Looking ahead, the question is whether the current growth that the cement industry is enjoying is viable once government spending slows down. Alongside this the industry could also focus on sustainability. As the government announced in early January 2020, the country expects to face both negative and positive effects from climate change. The cement industry could be at the front of this trend if it decides to clean up production and/or move into new markets as the Arctic region opens up.