Displaying items by tag: Export

Energy has been the theme for a couple of cement news stories of note from Egypt this week. The first concerns the government’s impending plan to centralise distribution of mazut (heavy fuel oil) to cement plants to help them cope with ongoing power shortages. Earlier in the week Cemex signed a deal with the Assiut Governorate to operate a second municipal solid refuse processing unit in the country. The company’s first Regenera facility, in Mahala, started operations in May 2024. Another story from mid-September 2024, along the same theme, covered the inauguration of an 18MW waste heat recovery (WHR) unit at Heidelberg Materials Egypt's Helwan Cement plant.

The wider story is that the country has faced so-called load shedding, or power rationing, since mid-2023 due to falling gas production, rising energy demand and negative currency exchange effects making it harder to buy fuel imports. The power cuts were extended in duration in July 2024 due to a heat wave. The government then said in late September 2024 that it is making investments to prevent domestic power cuts in 2025.

The cement stories mentioned above show some of the ways cement companies cut their energy costs. Two potential ways of doing this are to increase the use of alternative fuels (AF), such as municipal solid waste, or to install a WHR unit. Titan Cement, for example, reported AF thermal substitution rates of above 40% in Alexandria and above 30% in Beni Suef in the first half of 2024. The local press hasn’t reported power shortages amongst the country’s cement producers, but the plans to control the distribution of mazut suggest that either ‘something’ has happened or the government is trying to avoid ‘something.’ Readers may recall that producers have periodically faced step changes in power supplies over the years. In the mid-2010s, for example, lots of plants switched from heavy fuel oil and gas to coal. The energy price fluctuations following the start of the Russia - Ukraine war in 2022 then saw the price of coal rise.

However, what the foreign-owned producers have complained about in the first half of 2024 is the declining exchange rate of the Egyptian Pound. Cementir, Cemex and Titan Cement all noted this. However, Titan reckoned that International Monetary Fund and European Union investment had actually eased the economic situation in the first half of the year leading to an increase in the number of large construction projects.

One effect of the currency problems upon the cement market has been a focus on exports. At the start of September 2024 the Federation of Egyptian Industries said that national cement consumption in 2024 was expected to drop by 4% year-on-year to 45Mt. However, exports were projected to rise to 15Mt. The first and second most popular destinations so far in 2024 have been the Ivory Coast and Ghana. Yet, exports to Libya, the third biggest external market, may have had the biggest effect. These have been blamed for creating a shortage of trucks that was causing delays to the local construction sector. The round-journey from Egypt to Libya can take up to 12 days. This has left building sites bereft of raw material deliveries because all the trucks are elsewhere! Vicat acknowledged the growing importance of imports for its business in Egypt in its half-year report for 2024. It said that ‘sluggish’ domestic market conditions “were more than offset by growth in cement and clinker volumes for export to the Mediterranean and Africa regions.”

The wider picture of the cement sector in Egypt remains one of overcapacity with integrated capacity estimated above 70Mt/yr. The government introduced cement production quotas in mid-2021 and this stabilised prices (and profits). The recent state of the local economy may have strained this, but the latest round of external investment appears to have buoyed things for now. Although the effects of the Israeli military action in Lebanon may have unforeseen consequences upon neighbouring markets. In the meantime, cutting energy costs and growing exports offer two ways for producers to raise their profits.

One surprise at the end of August 2024 was that Türkiye-based Çimsa has agreed to buy a majority stake in Ireland-based Mannok. The subsidiary of Sabancı Holding signed a deal to acquire just under a 95% stake in Mannok Holdings based on an enterprise value of Euro330m for 100% of the shares. The final purchase price will be determined later in the process, as will a potential completion date subject to the usual regulatory approvals.

Çimsa has described the deal as its “third major global initiative in the past three years” following expansions in the US and Spain. Çimsa started production at its 0.3Mt/yr white cement grinding plant in Houston, Texas in 2019. It is currently planning to set-up a 0.6Mt/yr grey cement grinding plant, also in Houston, with operation expected to start by the end of 2024. Its Spain-based business received a boost in mid-2021 when it purchased the Buñol white cement plant in Valencia from Cemex. Outside of Türkiye the company also operates a few terminals in Germany and Italy. Of interest to this article it established a subsidiary for sales in the UK in mid-2023.

Mannok was previously known as Quinn Group before it was rebranded in 2020. In addition to cement the company sells a range of construction products including PIR (polyisocyanurate) insulation, aircrete thermal blocks, roof tiles and precast concrete. The company is headquartered at Derrylin in Fermanagh, Northern Ireland in the UK but it operates in both Ireland and the UK. It runs a 1.4Mt/yr integrated plant at Ballyconnell, County Cavan in Ireland, just across the border from Derrylin. With the 17th Global CemFuels Conference scheduled to take place next week in Dublin, it is worth noting that this cement plant had a recent upgrade of interest to the alternative fuels sector. In 2023 the company said that it had installed the world’s first FLSmidth Fuelflex Pyrolyzer at a cement plant following an earlier pilot of the system back in 2018. It is used to replace coal with solid recovered fuels (SRF) in the pre-calcination stage of cement production. Later in 2023 Mannok said that the equipment was reducing its CO₂ emissions by 58,000t/yr.

As reported in the October 2023 issue of Global Cement Magazine, cement from the Ballyconnell plant is sold in both Ireland and the UK. In 2022, 35% of its sales were in Ireland, 30% in Northern Ireland and the remaining 35% in the rest of the UK. The company uses a storage unit at Warrenport in Northern Ireland to despatch cement to a 8400t cement storage and distribution at Rochester in Southern England.

Çimsa said that the acquisition is intended to help it to increase the share of its revenue in foreign currencies to over 70%. It is not a revelation that Çimsa might want to do this given the parlous state of the economy in Türkiye since 2018. Interest rates are high and the Turkish Lira has lost value. Çimsa raised the issues this has caused in its 2023 annual report. These include higher costs for imported goods and services such as energy, equipment and engineering services. In 2023 the company reported that 57% of its sales consisted of foreign currency-based revenue. The same year exports represented just under 40% of the company’s total revenue. Overall, Çimsa’s revenue fell slightly year-on-year in 2023, in part due to the divestment of a cement plant and other assets, but earnings rose significantly.

Buying Mannok gives Çimsa another route into the European Union (EU), via Ireland, and the UK. Crucially, this gives its first integrated grey cement production site outside of Türkiye. Both of these things are especially useful for an export-focused company facing increasing hurdles to sales in the guise of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. It also helps the business to further hedge against negative currency exchange effects back home in Türkiye. So ‘Sláinte’ to Çimsa and Mannok, and good luck.

The 17th Global CemFuels Conference & Exhibition takes place in Dublin, Ireland on 18 - 19 September 2024

Nepal: Exports of cement to India via the Kakarvitta road border crossing in Jhapa totalled 50,000t in the 2024 financial year, which ended on 15 July 2024. KhabarHub News has reported that shipments had a combined value of US$3.81m. The Kakarvitta crossing had not previously served to convey major despatches of cement between the two countries. The cement industry in Jhapa is 50% dependent on export markets for its demand. Eight plants operate in the district, of which three currently sit idle due to 40% local oversupply.

The mountainous eastern shore of the Adriatic Sea and its hinterlands in Europe’s Balkan Peninsula have one of the world’s highest densities of countries: six, across a broad equilateral triangle of 212,000km². All six states – Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia – are historically characterised by political non-alignment, carrying over from the Cold War period, and all the more notable for the presence of the EU to the north (Croatia, Hungary and Romania) and east (Bulgaria and Greece).

A nine-plant, 9Mt/yr local cement sector serves the 16.8m-strong population of the unconsolidated ‘bloc.’ Albania has 2.8Mt/yr (31%), Serbia 2.7Mt/yr (30%), Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.6Mt/yr (18%), North Macedonia 1.4Mt/yr (15%) and Kosovo 500,000t/yr (6%), while Montenegro has no cement capacity – for now. Altogether, this gives this quarter of South East Europe a capacity per capita of 539kg/yr. The industry consists entirely of companies based outside of the region. Albania’s two plants are Lebanese and Greek-owned (by Seament Holding and Titan Cement Group respectively). Titan Cement Group also controls single-plant Kosovo and North Macedonia, and competes in the Serbian cement industry alongside larger and smaller plants belonging to Switzerland-based Holcim and Ireland-based CRH, respectively. Lastly, Bosnia & Herzegovina’s capacity is shared evenly between Germany-based Heidelberg Materials and Hungary-based Talentis International Construction, with one plant each.

Lafarge Srbija, Holcim's subsidiary in Serbia, announced plans for its second plant in the country, at Ratari in Belgrade, last week. No capacity has yet emerged, but the plant will cost €110m, making something in the region of the country’s existing 0.6 – 1.2Mt/yr plants seem likely. This would give Serbia over a third of total capacity in the Central Balkans and twice the number of plants of any other country there, expanding its per-capita capacity by 22 – 44%, from a regionally low 408kg/yr to 500 – 590kg/yr.

In announcing the upcoming Ratari cement plant, Lafarge Srbija laid emphasis on its sustainability. The plant will use 1Mt/yr of ash from the adjacent Nikola Tesla B thermal power plant as a raw material in its cement production. In this way, it will help to clear the Nikola Tesla B plant’s 1600 hectare ash dumps, from which only 180,000t of ash was harvested in 2023. Circularity has been front and centre of Holcim’s discussions of its growth in Serbia for some time. When Lafarge Srbija acquired aggregates producer Teko Mining Serbia in 2022, the group indicated that the business would play a part in its development of construction and demolition materials (CDM)-based cement and concrete.

Holcim’s Strategy 2025 growth plan entails bolt-on acquisitions in ‘mature markets,’ backed by strategic divestments elsewhere. Other companies have been more explicit about a realignment towards metropolitan markets, above all in North America, at a time when they are also diversifying away from cement and into other materials. Just why a leading producer should look to build cement capacity in Serbia warrants investigation.

Serbia is the only Central Balkan member of Cembureau, the European cement association. In a European market report for 2022, the association attributed to it the continent’s fastest declining cement consumption (jointly with Slovakia), down by 11% year-on-year. Like the rest of Europe, Serbia is also gradually shrinking, its population dwindling by 0.7% year-on-year to 6.62m in 2023, which limits hopes for a longer-term recovery. Serbia remains the largest country in the Central Balkans, with 39% of the total regional population.

Several factors have compounded Serbia’s difficulties as a cement-producing country. Firstly, like the Nikola Tesla B thermal power plant, its kilns run on coal. 50% of this coal originated in Russia and Ukraine in 2021, causing the entire operation to become ‘imperilled’ after the former’s brutal invasion of the latter in February 2022, according to the Serbian Cement Industry Association. In planning terms, this was a case of putting half one’s eggs in two baskets – and dropping them both.

Secondly, Serbia’s choice of export markets is mainly confined to either the EU or global markets via the River Danube, Black Sea and Mediterranean. Either way, it is in competition with a cement exporting giant: Türkiye. Serbia sold €19.7m-worth of cement in the EU in 2023, up by 63% over the three-year period since 2020 – 31% behind Türkiye’s €28.8m (more than double its 2020 figure).¹ One other Central Balkan country had a greater reliance on the EU market: Bosnia & Herzegovina. It exported €48.4m-worth of cement there, quadruple its 2020 figure and behind only China (€133m) and the UK (€54.7) in cement exports to the bloc by value.

Bosnia & Herzegovina’s cement industry underwent a different permutation at the start of 2024: an acquisition, replacing one EU-based player with another. Lukavac Cement, which operates the 800,000t/yr Lukavac cement plant in Tuzla, changed hands from Austria-based building materials producer Asamer Baustoffe to Hungary-based property developer Talentis International Construction. Talentis International Construction belongs to one of Hungary’s major family-owned conglomerates, Mészáros Csoport.

Besides Central Europe, Balkan countries have found a ready source of investments in the past decade in China. In construction alone, Chinese investments total €13.2bn in Serbia, €2.4bn in Bosnia & Herzegovina, €915m in Montenegro and €650m in North Macedonia.² This can be a booster shot to all-important domestic cement markets, but has some risks. Montenegro previously faced bankruptcy after Export-Import Bank of China began to call in an €847m loan for construction of the still upcoming A1 motorway in the country’s Northern Region. This did not put off the Montenegrin government from signing a new memorandum of understanding (MoU) with China-based Shandong Foreign Economic and Technical Cooperation and Shandong Luqiao Group for construction of a new €54m coast road in the Coastal Region in mid-2023.

In Montenegro, UK-based private equity firm Chayton Capital is currently funding a feasibility study for a partly state-owned cement plant and building materials complex at the Pljevlja energy hub in the Northern Region. Along with an upgrade to the existing Pljevlja coal-fired power plant, the project will cost €700m.

In 2026, EU member states will begin to partly tax third-country imports of cement and other products against their specific CO₂ emissions, progressing to the implementation of a 100% Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by 2034. Montenegro led the Central Balkans’ preparations for the EU’s CBAM roll-out with the introduction of its own emissions trading system in early 2021. Bosnia & Herzegovina will follow its example by 2026, but other countries in the region have struggled to conceive of the arrangement except as part of future EU accession agreements.

Based on the average specific CO₂ emissions of cement produced in the EU, the World Bank has forecast that exporters to the bloc will be disadvantaged if their own specific emissions exceed 5.52kg CO₂eq/€.³ By contrast, any figure below this ought to offer an increased competitive edge. Albanian cement has average emissions of 4.71kg CO₂eq/€, 15% below ‘biting point’ and 13% below Türkiye’s 5.39CO₂eq/€. Albania’s government consolidated its anticipated gains by quintupling the coal tax for 2024 to €0.15/kg. The figure is based on the International Monetary Fund’s recommended minimum CO₂ emissions tax of €55.80/t, 21% shy of the current EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) credit price of €70.49/t.⁴

The Central Balkans is a region of apparently slow markets and industry growth regardless – to 11 cement plants, following the completion of current and upcoming projects. A recurrent theme of capital expenditure investments and the way investors talk about them may help to explain this: sustainability. Looking at the mix of technologies in the current nine plants, these include wet kilns and fuels lines built for conventional fossil fuels. This is not to presume that any given plant might not be happy with its existing equipment as is. Nonetheless, the overall picture is of a set of veteran plants with scope to benefit from the kind of investments which all four global cement producers active in the region are already carrying out elsewhere in Europe. Such plans may already be in motion. In late 2023, Titan Cement Group’s North Macedonian subsidiary Cementarnica Usje secured shareholder approval to take two new loans of up to €27m combined.

As the latest news from Serbia showed, taking care of existing plants does not preclude also building new ones. The cement industry of the Central Balkans is finding its position in the new reduced-CO₂ global cement trade – one in which old and new work together.

References

1. Trend Economy, ‘European Union – Imports and Exports – Articles of cement,’ 28 January 2024, https://trendeconomy.com/data/h2/EuropeanUnion/6810#

2. American Enterprise Institute, 'China Global Investment Tracker,' 3 February 2024 https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/

3. World Bank Group, ‘Relative CBAM Exposure Index,’ 15 June 2023, https://www.worldbank.org/en/data/interactive/2023/06/15/relative-cbam-exposure-index

4. Ember, 'Carbon Price Tracker,' 26 August 2024, https://ember-climate.org/data/data-tools/carbon-price-viewer/

Kyrgyzstan: 174,800t of cement entered Kyrgyzstan in the first half of 2024, more than double first-half 2023 import volumes of 83,200t. Neighbouring Kazakhstan supplied 152,000t (87%) of the total, according to data from the Kyrgyz National Statistical Committee. Central Asia News has reported that other imports originated from China, Iran and Uzbekistan.

Kyrgyzstan’s first-half cement production declined by 2% year-on-year in the period under review, to 1.3Mt. However, it grew by 10% year-on-year in June 2024. The country exported 190,000t of cement throughout the first half of 2024, all of it to Uzbekistan, down by 21% from first-half 2023 levels.

Colombia: Cementos Argos is set to finish construction of a new silo at its Cartagena export terminal by November 2025, aiming to increase its exports of cement to the US and ‘several’ Caribbean countries. Total investments in the project are valued at US$17m. The dome-shaped silo can store up to 20,000t of cement and allows for the simultaneous loading of ships at two docks, potentially increasing cement and clinker exports to 3.5Mt/yr.

A couple of stories have popped up this week regarding restrictions on cement imports. First, authorities in Taiwan have launched an anti-dumping investigation into Vietnamese cement. Secondly, and perhaps more surprisingly given its growing economy, the authorities in Kyrgyzstan are planning to ban overland imports of cement from within Central Asia. More on that later…

First, to the Far East, where Taiwan’s Trade Remedies Authority has launched an anti-dumping investigation into cement and clinker imported from Vietnam. It will assess imports covering the year from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2024 and target seven specific Vietnamese cement producers among others. The Vietnamese companies are mandatory respondents – they will be compelled to answer investigators’ questions.

Vietnamese cement has long been among the cheapest in the region due to the country’s drive to hit production targets, rather than simply meeting demand. The situation has resulted in a vast amount of cement available for export. This, coupled to Vietnam’s long, indented coastline, makes it easy to ship cement overseas.

Even with export volumes falling by 1.2% year-on-year to 31.3Mt in 2023, around a third of Vietnam’s capacity, this is a massive volume of cement - and it’s only getting cheaper. The average export value of Vietnamese cement and clinker fell from US$46-48/t at the start of 2023 to just US$31-32/t in May 2024, a decline of 30-35%. These changes have been due, in part, to an increase in tax on clinker exports from 5% to 10% on 1 January 2023 and an anti-dumping investigation launched by the Philippines in March 2023. Falling prices and volumes represent a ‘double-whammy’ for producers, several of which have announced that they made losses in the first half of 2024. Vicem’s top management said that challenges also arose at home due to a reduced demand following limited civil engineering projects and a stagnant real estate market.

It is easy to see why Taiwanese cement producers may feel threatened by the prospect of greater volumes of cheap cement on their doorstep. Taiwan only made 4.9Mt/yr of cement in the first half of 2024. With domestic prices in the region of US$65-70/t according to Cement Network, this provides a very attractive margin of US$33-39/t for Vietnamese producers to export to Taiwan. It will be interesting to see how far the country’s authorities are willing to go to protect the country’s producers and whether any anti-dumping policies lead to further falls in the landed volumes of Vietnamese cement.

Meanwhile, 4600km to the west, Kyrgyzstan has announced that it will enforce a six-month road import ban on several types of cement including Portland cement, alumina cement and slag cement. The ban, affecting both cement and clinker, will take effect on 1 October 2024 and last for six months. According to the State Statistical Committee of Kyrgyzstan, the country saw a 76% year-on-year increase in cement imports – mainly from Iran, Kazakhstan, China and Uzbekistan - between January 2024 and May 2024. The total import volume over the five months was 125,737t. For a country that made just 1Mt over the same period, this is a major change.

The overland import ban is more of a surprise than the Taiwan / Vietnam situation, as Kyrgyzstan recently reported that the North of the country was experiencing a ‘construction boom’ and cement shortages. However, two new plants due to start production in the coming months could help the country out... unless it too would like to export its newly-developed cement production capacity.

And here we arrive at a ‘classic’ impasse. From Pakistani cement in South Africa, to price arguments in West Africa, import bans in Central Asia and Vietnamese cement in Philippines and Taiwan, more and more exporters are finding that their markets are already self-sufficient in cement, with the US perhaps the notable exception. Soon there will be nowhere left for cement to be exported to. Are we at peak cement?

South Korea: Ssangyong C&E has exported 30,000t of low-carbon limestone cement (Type IL) to the US, its first such shipment following three years of research and development, according to AJU News. The product reportedly has a reduced clinker content and maintains the same physical performance as general cement. The producer plans to export 200,000t to the US in 2024 and 600,000t in 2025.

A Ssangyong C&E official said "Currently, our country's national standards stipulate that mixed cement only uses slag, fly ash and pozzolan. In order to reduce carbon emissions in the future, conditions must be created where various types of eco-friendly cement, including limestone cement, can be used."

Dominican Republic: Cemex has signed an agreement to sell its operations in the Dominican Republic to Cementos Progreso Holdings and partners for US$950m. The sale includes a cement plant with a capacity of 2.4Mt/yr, 12 concrete plants, a quarry and two distribution centres, as well as export businesses to Haiti.The divestment is expected to finalise in the fourth quarter of 2024, pending closing conditions.

Fernando Gonzalez, CEO of Cemex, said "This transaction advances us significantly in our portfolio rebalancing strategy which is focused on reducing our exposure in emerging markets and redeploying capital into growth investments in priority markets, primarily the US."

Vietnam: Export prices for clinker and cement in Vietnam have dropped significantly in May 2024, impacting the construction industry and raising concerns among exporters. This decline is due to decreased international demand, intense competition, and evolving trade policies, according to the Vietnam News Brief Service. The Ministry of Construction noted that after a decade of growth, export volumes have fallen sharply since 2022, with exports dropping to 10.9Mt in 2023 from 15.2Mt the previous year. Only 5.4Mt is expected to be exported in the first half of 2024.

The Vietnam Cement Association (VNCA) has highlighted ongoing challenges, particularly influenced by the downturn in China’s real estate market and competitive pressures from Chinese cement surpluses. The VNCA has urged Vietnamese exporters to explore new markets, improve product quality and increase production efficiency. Additionally, the VNCA recommends that the government consider eliminating export taxes on clinker to mitigate these challenges.