International shipments of cement connect many nations around the world. The top five trade flows of cement and clinker generated revenues in the region of US$5bn in 2025. In the last week of July 2026, governments have successfully enacted or upheld tariffs to constrain the movement of cement, including along some major trade flows.

Our story this week begins in Quebec, Canada, where the former McInnis Cement built a new 2.2Mt/yr integrated cement plant at Port-Daniel between 2014 and June 2017. The plant is situated on the south coast of the Gaspé peninsula, facing out on the Gulf of St Lawrence, and beyond to the US east coast. It was strategically located to capture anticipated infrastructure-driven demand growth in the US, under prevailing free trade arrangements. At that time, US cement imports were forecast at 22Mt in 2018, more than doubling to 50Mt by 2028.¹

On 20 January 2017, Donald Trump first took office as US President, elected on a promise, among other things, to clear up ‘bad’ trade deals. In the first year of his presidency, the country imported 13.5Mt of cement and clinker.² Import volumes continued to grow at the anticipated rate over the next eight years, up to 25.4Mt in 2025. Over the same period, US cement consumption grew by approximately 12% to around 110Mt – hardly a bonanza. The nearest plant inside the US to Port-Daniel – Giant Cement Holding’s Thomaston plant in Maine – idled its kiln in 2025.

President Trump first enacted tariffs on goods from Canada on 4 March 2025, subject to the exemption of goods compliant with the preexisting US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Canadian cement is eligible to be USMCA-compliant, provided it contains all-North American raw materials and has the necessary paperwork to show it. On 20 February 2026, the US Supreme Court found Trump’s tariffs void, given that the President’s emergency powers did not extend to the imposition of tariffs. A blanket US ‘surcharge’ of 10%, and Canadian retaliatory tariffs, remained in place.

It was in this Canadian retaliation that President Trump found the legal basis for his next move. A never-before-used provision of the Tariff Act 1930 permits punitive tariffs of up to 50% on any goods from countries that treat US goods ‘unequally,’ as Canada now allegedly does. On 20 July 2026, a series of Presidential proclamations enacted 50% tariffs ‘to offset discrimination’ of US exports under three headings: alcohol, automobiles and dairy products. Under the second of these – alongside hundreds of other products from animal hides to ‘bones treated with acid’ – is cement.³ The new tariffs will enter force on 20 August 2026. The anticipated effects are as follows:

1 – A decline in sales for Canadian cement producers;

2 – A rise in costs for US construction firms, passing to the end customer.

The American Cement Association previously communicated its position on Trump’s tariff measures in March 2025.⁴ At time of writing, it has yet to comment on these latest developments.

The Canada-US cement trade is not one of the major global flows, but it is nonetheless instructive due to the scale of the US market, as developments might affect its larger trade partners: Türkiye and Vietnam. These industries represent significant strategic overcapacity in their respective export spheres of the Atlantic basin and Asia-Pacific.

On 23 July 2026, the Philippines government rejected importer NCL Trading’s appeal against ‘anti-dumping duties’ on Vietnamese cement, in force until 2028. It found sufficient evidence of injury to the domestic sector to maintain a tariff of up to 23% on imports. NCL Trading already pays a special reduced rate of 2%. Cement from China and Indonesia previously also became subject to the duty earlier in June 2026.

Other tariff news followed from Serbia. The landlocked country imports cement chiefly from neighbouring countries and – overland via Bulgaria – Türkiye. On 24 July 2026, the government extended a six-month quota on cement imports of 250,000t. As in the first half of the year, importers will pay 50% tariffs on shipments above quota volume. The government apportioned the quota between trade partners based on their historical volumes of cement exports to Serbia in 2020 – 2024.

New trade flows continue to open up, even as others are winding down. In the first quarter of 2026, Senegal increased its cement exports to the Gambia tenfold year-on-year, following domestic production capacity growth in Senegal in the intervening period. West African regional cement imports rose by 39% in 2025, with Eastern Mediterranean countries being the lead established providers.

There are other options available to governments seeking to prop up their domestic cement production. In New Zealand, which is 60% reliant on Fletcher Building’s Portland cement plant for its cement supply, the government granted the producer up to US$34.7m to continue production on 20 July 2026. It justified the grant based on the ‘massive exposure’ of the country to global cement supply disruptions, if not for the Portland plant. Fletcher Building said that production was becoming untenable, due in part to New Zealand’s lack of any carbon border adjustments on imports. Foreseeably, such a ‘CBAM’ mechanism may play a part in the Pacific nation’s eventual decarbonisation (due by 2050). On 22 July 2026, however, the New Zealand Climate Commission reported that the government is off track to meet its goal without immediately doubling its pace of decarbonisation.⁵

The government of Cambodia, meanwhile, extended a specific tax exemption on domestic cement producers’ sales on 24 July 2026, until the end of 2028. The Cambodian cement industry serves 80% of domestic cement needs, with consumption forecast to chart a composite annual growth rate of 7% up to 2028.

In Mozambique, Huaxin Cement subsidiary Cimentos de Moçambique successfully tripled the production capacity of its Nacala cement plant to 1.2Mt/yr on 28 July 2026, eliminating the need for 300,000t/yr of exports. The expanded plant will, in turn, increase its exports to Madagascar.

Investing in a cement plant is always risky. The lesson of the past decade’s cement news appears to be: secure your domestic market first. In the time since McInnis Cement commenced operations at Port-Daniel, China broadly withdrew from the import of cement, and the US now shows every sign of attempting to follow it. The definite stage of the EU’s CBAM began on 1 January 2026, and the bloc is encouraging its trade partners’ efforts to replicate the measures. Rolling, temporary tariffs have served in the Philippines and elsewhere. Into the medium-term future, underserved regions like West and Southern Africa remain. As Huaxin Cement’s movements in Mozambique make abundantly clear, this may not be the case for long.

References

1 Béton Provincial, Port-Daniel-Gascons Mcinnis Cement Plant, 2017, www.betonprovincial.com/en/our-projects/port-daniel-gascons-mcinnis-cement-plant/

2 US Geological Survey, ‘Cement Statistics and Information,’ February 2025, www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/cement-statistics-and-information

3 Executive Office of the President, ‘Imposing Additional Duties To Offset Canadian Discrimination Against the Commerce of the United States With Respect to Motor Vehicles,’ 23 July 2026, www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/07/23/2026-14997/imposing-additional-duties-to-offset-canadian-discrimination-against-the-commerce-of-the-united

4 American Cement Association, ‘US Cement Industry Statement on Trump Administration’s Proposed Tariffs,’ 3 February 2026, www.cement.org/2025/02/04/u-s-cement-industry-statement-on-trump-administrations-proposed-tariffs/

5 He Pou a Rangi Aotearoa, 2026 Monitoring report: Emissions reduction, 22 July 2026, www.climatecommission.govt.nz/reports-and-evidence/publications/2026-monitoring-report-emissions-reduction/

Brazil is the focus this week with the news that local sales reached 32.9Mt in the first half of 2026. The market is also facing change in its composition with the change in ownership of InterCement earlier in the year and the ongoing sale of CSN Cimentos.

Graph 1: Cement sales in Brazil, 2018 - June 2026. Source: National Cement Industry Union (SNIC)

The latest data from the National Cement Industry Union (SNIC) shows that cement sales rose by 2.3% year-on-year to 32.9Mt in the first half of 2026 from 32.1Mt in the same period in 2025. As can be seen in Graph 1 above, this is the largest first-half figure since at least 2018. There has been a general trend of sales growth in this time, from 52.8Mt in 2018 to 67Mt in 2025. 2026 as a whole looks reasonably likely to surpass this barring any market shocks. SNIC has identified the Minha Casa, Minha Vida (MCMV) house building programme as the main driver of sales. It says that it accounted for 50% of new real estate project launches in the first quarter of 2026 and created a 10% rise in sales. An expansion of the programme in April 2026 to higher income families and revised government house building targets are expected to generate an additional 5Mt of cement consumption. The union also mentioned that the increased use of rigid concrete pavement (whitetopping) road projects is likely to contribute to infrastructure-related cement sales.

Unfortunately, SNIC’s list of potential risks to the cement sector is weighty. Rising and volatile fuel costs in relation to geopolitical events are similar to the rest of the world. The local interest rate, the Selic rate, is not expected to fall as much as anticipated by the end of the year. Other local issues include a change in regulated working hours that is expected to push up labour costs when it becomes law in the second half of 2026. SNIC also flagged up the growing economic cost of online gambling upon household debt and the direct consequence of this upon the self-build sector. This issue has been part of a national debate in Brazil and stricter rules were expected to be implemented in mid-July 2026.

Clarity on the future of CSN Cimentos should start to emerge in mid-August 2026. The deadline for bids is on 7 August 2026. Then a contract might be signed in September 2026 with a potential buyer if all goes well. However, as reporting by Valor Econômico has revealed, there may be a gap between the price CSN wants for its cement division and what the potential buyers are prepared to pay. The vendor reportedly wants around US$2.5bn but potential bidders were expecting a lower price, nearer to US$2bn. This is an issue with the Chinese companies. China-based companies linked to the sale previously have included Anhui Conch, Huaxin Cement and Sinoma International. Local companies Votorantim and Polimix Concreto were linked to the sale previously but it is unknown whether they will make bids or not.

Regarding InterCement, a consortium led by LATCEM, Redwood Capital Management and Moneda Patria Investments took control in April 2026. The three companies also injected US$110m into the company during the process. In an interview in July 2026 Marcelo Mindlin, the controller of LATCEM, confirmed that the new management is preparing to divest Loma Negra. InterCement is currently the controlling shareholder of the Argentina-based cement company. He added that the consortium is still building its strategy for InterCement and working out which sections of the business offer the best return.

Finally, the government in Brazil announced preliminary plans for its carbon market in May 2026. Cement is set to be included in the first phase of the scheme that will start in 2027. The paper, ​iron and steel, aluminium, oil and gas, and air transport sectors will also be included. The scheme will include a four year preparation period where emissions monitoring is prepared, conducted and then allocations set. So, if the market continues in its proposed form, the local cement market might start facing carbon fees from 2031 onwards.

The current state of the cement market in Brazil is looking promising but it is delicate. It is understandable why CSN might be optimistic about the price it could get for selling its cement business given the sales figures so far in 2026. We’ll have to wait a few weeks to find out what the potential bidders think. The rise in cement sales may also have given the new management at InterCement an easy introduction to taking charge of the business before they have to take any tough decisions. Plans for a carbon market in Brazil mean that another major cement producing country is engaging with decarbonisation at the legislative level.

This week the European Commission (EC) announced its latest plan to change the emissions trading scheme (ETS). Meanwhile, in New Zealand, the government gave Fletcher Building around US$35m to keep its Golden Bay Cement Northland plant open. Read on to find out how the two stories are linked.

Following pressure from European heads of state earlier in the year, the EC published its proposal to amend the scheme. The commission has presented it as an Electrification Action Plan and an ETS review. However, the latter proposal is the main concern for the cement sector in the short term. It wants to add more free permits and slow the rate at which they are phased out. The Linear Reduction Factor (LRF) will be reduced to 3.7% for 2031 - 2035 and 1.7% for 2036 - 2040. This compares to the current LRF of 4.3% and the next one of 4.4% for 2028 - 2030. Both the amount of free permits or allowances for carbon credits and the rate at which they are phased out are a major concern for heavy emitting sectors, like cement, because it exposes them to the carbon price faster. The commission has spun this slowdown in its ambitions for the ETS as aligning it with the “domestic climate ambition level.”

Naturally, these changes come with strings attached. Free permits will be given to industry for longer but on the condition that investment is made towards decarbonisation. 80% of the value of the free permits will be given in advance but the remaining 20% will only follow once decarbonisation plans have been verified. Likewise, the free permit system will continue to operate to and the full version of the Cross Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will start from 2038, instead of 2034 previously.

Cement Europe welcomed the proposed changes, noting that they were an “acknowledgement of the need to maintain sufficient liquidity in the carbon market beyond 2040.” It also liked the inclusion of CO₂ transport infrastructure within the definition of ETS ‘installation.’ However, it did not like the slower phase out of the free allowances for CBAM sectors, as it is seeking a “level playing field” for carbon costs for both imports and exports. It is also looking forward to any progress on electricity prices, noting that such prices in the European Union (EU) remained higher than those in many competing countries that produce cement and clinker.

Climate think tanks such as Sandbag were less enthusiastic. In response to the proposed changes it declared in a LinkedIn post that the reforms would torpedo the EU’s legally binding target of a net emissions reduction of 90% by 2040 from 1990 levels. Its view is that the ETS currently has a surplus of permits representing 1.7x the emissions reported in 2025. If the EU tries to meet an 85% target it runs the risk of having too many free permits and crashing the EU ETS price. Sandbag reckons, more realistically, that the most likely scenario, if the current proposals are enacted, is that the 1.7x surplus will endure to 2040 leading to a 75% reduction of total emissions. Or, in other words, the EU appears to be softening its emissions reduction targets.

All of this links to a cement plant in New Zealand because the owners, Fletcher Building, partly blamed the threat of closing the site on local carbon taxes. Following an ‘independent assessment’ the company said that it might have to close the integrated plant and import clinker instead by 2030. Instead, the government has made a “specific, one-time response to an exceptional set of circumstances” and local subsidiary Golden Bay Cement has committed to investing around US$87m and keeping the site open until at least 2040. As Fletcher Building pointed out in its accompanying press release, it supplies nearly 60% of the cement used in the country and 95% of the plant’s output is sold domestically. It is worth noting, that despite major differences between the two systems, the carbon price in New Zealand is currently around €50/t compared to around €80/t in the EU.

These kinds of situations are going to continue as carbon taxes grow and mature around the world. Schemes will be tweaked following political pressure and governments may have to decide whether they want to bail out heavy emitters that they might deem as essential to society. One absurdity of the current argument in the EU about the ETS is that the commission has now issued its response softening the system following a record-breaking heatwave.

Market data on the cement sector in Pakistan was released this week. It is looking promising with combined despatches up. Let’s dig a little deeper.

Overall despatches grew by 7% year-on-year to 50.1Mt in the 2026 financial year (FY2026) from 46.2Mt in the previous period, according to data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA). Note that in Pakistan the financial year runs from July to June. Local sales drove the trend with a rise of 9.5% to 41.5Mt. However, exports fell slightly to 9Mt. An APCMA spokesperson said that demand for cement both locally and in export markets was expected to remain strong in the coming months. They added that decreasing geopolitical tensions at that time could help to reduce the sector’s energy prices. Arif Habib’s view backed that of the APCMA. It added that “...budgetary relief for the construction sector and any further decline in interest rates are expected to support demand.”

Graph 1: Local and export cement despatches in Pakistan, 2018 - 2026 financial years. Source: All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association.

Graph 1 above shows the wider picture and the evolving dynamic between domestic and export despatches. Exports have typically grown as local sales decline. Combined despatches in FY2026 were 50.5Mt, the third highest figure since FY2018. Within the country the cement plants in the north of the country tend to supply the domestic market and the ones in the south split their output between local and export markets. Exports notably dipped significantly in the FY2022 due to high energy prices making them less competitive. They have since recovered but they did soften slightly in FY2026. Exports fell in the north due to the closure of the border with Afghanistan in late 2025 due to hostilities between the two countries, according to AKD Research. Exports rose in the south of Pakistan due to growing demand from Africa but it wasn’t enough to bring up the total.

It is within this environment that local media reminded its audience this week that the Special Investment Facilitation Council has been helping cement companies in the country build new capacity. Back in April 2026 the council approved projects with a US$700m investment and also helped to resolve regulatory delays. Companies that received approvals were Flying Cement, Lucky Cement, Bhutta Cement, Asian Precious Minerals, Orient Cement, Dandot Cement and Maple Cement. Lucky Cement announced this week that it had completed and commissioned a process optimisation and capacity enlargement project at its Karachi plant. The production capacity at the unit has now increased by 300,000t/yr to 5.35Mt/yr. In its note to the market it highlighted that the work was expected to reduce fuel consumption per tonne of cement produced. The company now has a total production capacity of 15.6Mt/yr and it says it is the largest producer in Pakistan. Lucky Cement’s ambitions are not restricted to Pakistan. It was also reported this week that the company had met with the chair of the Privatisation and Investment Board in Libya. It is considering building a 2.5Mt/yr cement plant in Khoms, Libya. If the project is realised it will join the group’s other overseas plants in Iraq and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Financial results in FY2026 for the main cement producers are not due until August 2026. Nine-month data to March 2026 showed particular sales revenue gains for Power Cement and Lucky Cement. Both companies attributed this to rising sales volumes, particularly domestically. Many of the other large producers also reported this although the local-export sales mix affected overall revenue in some cases.

Overall the situation is looking good for cement in Pakistan at the moment. Local demand is up and the export market is buoyant with the exception of Afghanistan. Recent government policy looks set to further stimulate domestic sales in the near future. One major risk is the cost of energy related to the Iran war. At the time of writing, the April 2026 ceasefire between the US and Iran has been declared “over” by President Trump.