Displaying items by tag: Türkiye

The mountainous eastern shore of the Adriatic Sea and its hinterlands in Europe’s Balkan Peninsula have one of the world’s highest densities of countries: six, across a broad equilateral triangle of 212,000km². All six states – Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia – are historically characterised by political non-alignment, carrying over from the Cold War period, and all the more notable for the presence of the EU to the north (Croatia, Hungary and Romania) and east (Bulgaria and Greece).

A nine-plant, 9Mt/yr local cement sector serves the 16.8m-strong population of the unconsolidated ‘bloc.’ Albania has 2.8Mt/yr (31%), Serbia 2.7Mt/yr (30%), Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.6Mt/yr (18%), North Macedonia 1.4Mt/yr (15%) and Kosovo 500,000t/yr (6%), while Montenegro has no cement capacity – for now. Altogether, this gives this quarter of South East Europe a capacity per capita of 539kg/yr. The industry consists entirely of companies based outside of the region. Albania’s two plants are Lebanese and Greek-owned (by Seament Holding and Titan Cement Group respectively). Titan Cement Group also controls single-plant Kosovo and North Macedonia, and competes in the Serbian cement industry alongside larger and smaller plants belonging to Switzerland-based Holcim and Ireland-based CRH, respectively. Lastly, Bosnia & Herzegovina’s capacity is shared evenly between Germany-based Heidelberg Materials and Hungary-based Talentis International Construction, with one plant each.

Lafarge Srbija, Holcim's subsidiary in Serbia, announced plans for its second plant in the country, at Ratari in Belgrade, last week. No capacity has yet emerged, but the plant will cost €110m, making something in the region of the country’s existing 0.6 – 1.2Mt/yr plants seem likely. This would give Serbia over a third of total capacity in the Central Balkans and twice the number of plants of any other country there, expanding its per-capita capacity by 22 – 44%, from a regionally low 408kg/yr to 500 – 590kg/yr.

In announcing the upcoming Ratari cement plant, Lafarge Srbija laid emphasis on its sustainability. The plant will use 1Mt/yr of ash from the adjacent Nikola Tesla B thermal power plant as a raw material in its cement production. In this way, it will help to clear the Nikola Tesla B plant’s 1600 hectare ash dumps, from which only 180,000t of ash was harvested in 2023. Circularity has been front and centre of Holcim’s discussions of its growth in Serbia for some time. When Lafarge Srbija acquired aggregates producer Teko Mining Serbia in 2022, the group indicated that the business would play a part in its development of construction and demolition materials (CDM)-based cement and concrete.

Holcim’s Strategy 2025 growth plan entails bolt-on acquisitions in ‘mature markets,’ backed by strategic divestments elsewhere. Other companies have been more explicit about a realignment towards metropolitan markets, above all in North America, at a time when they are also diversifying away from cement and into other materials. Just why a leading producer should look to build cement capacity in Serbia warrants investigation.

Serbia is the only Central Balkan member of Cembureau, the European cement association. In a European market report for 2022, the association attributed to it the continent’s fastest declining cement consumption (jointly with Slovakia), down by 11% year-on-year. Like the rest of Europe, Serbia is also gradually shrinking, its population dwindling by 0.7% year-on-year to 6.62m in 2023, which limits hopes for a longer-term recovery. Serbia remains the largest country in the Central Balkans, with 39% of the total regional population.

Several factors have compounded Serbia’s difficulties as a cement-producing country. Firstly, like the Nikola Tesla B thermal power plant, its kilns run on coal. 50% of this coal originated in Russia and Ukraine in 2021, causing the entire operation to become ‘imperilled’ after the former’s brutal invasion of the latter in February 2022, according to the Serbian Cement Industry Association. In planning terms, this was a case of putting half one’s eggs in two baskets – and dropping them both.

Secondly, Serbia’s choice of export markets is mainly confined to either the EU or global markets via the River Danube, Black Sea and Mediterranean. Either way, it is in competition with a cement exporting giant: Türkiye. Serbia sold €19.7m-worth of cement in the EU in 2023, up by 63% over the three-year period since 2020 – 31% behind Türkiye’s €28.8m (more than double its 2020 figure).¹ One other Central Balkan country had a greater reliance on the EU market: Bosnia & Herzegovina. It exported €48.4m-worth of cement there, quadruple its 2020 figure and behind only China (€133m) and the UK (€54.7) in cement exports to the bloc by value.

Bosnia & Herzegovina’s cement industry underwent a different permutation at the start of 2024: an acquisition, replacing one EU-based player with another. Lukavac Cement, which operates the 800,000t/yr Lukavac cement plant in Tuzla, changed hands from Austria-based building materials producer Asamer Baustoffe to Hungary-based property developer Talentis International Construction. Talentis International Construction belongs to one of Hungary’s major family-owned conglomerates, Mészáros Csoport.

Besides Central Europe, Balkan countries have found a ready source of investments in the past decade in China. In construction alone, Chinese investments total €13.2bn in Serbia, €2.4bn in Bosnia & Herzegovina, €915m in Montenegro and €650m in North Macedonia.² This can be a booster shot to all-important domestic cement markets, but has some risks. Montenegro previously faced bankruptcy after Export-Import Bank of China began to call in an €847m loan for construction of the still upcoming A1 motorway in the country’s Northern Region. This did not put off the Montenegrin government from signing a new memorandum of understanding (MoU) with China-based Shandong Foreign Economic and Technical Cooperation and Shandong Luqiao Group for construction of a new €54m coast road in the Coastal Region in mid-2023.

In Montenegro, UK-based private equity firm Chayton Capital is currently funding a feasibility study for a partly state-owned cement plant and building materials complex at the Pljevlja energy hub in the Northern Region. Along with an upgrade to the existing Pljevlja coal-fired power plant, the project will cost €700m.

In 2026, EU member states will begin to partly tax third-country imports of cement and other products against their specific CO₂ emissions, progressing to the implementation of a 100% Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by 2034. Montenegro led the Central Balkans’ preparations for the EU’s CBAM roll-out with the introduction of its own emissions trading system in early 2021. Bosnia & Herzegovina will follow its example by 2026, but other countries in the region have struggled to conceive of the arrangement except as part of future EU accession agreements.

Based on the average specific CO₂ emissions of cement produced in the EU, the World Bank has forecast that exporters to the bloc will be disadvantaged if their own specific emissions exceed 5.52kg CO₂eq/€.³ By contrast, any figure below this ought to offer an increased competitive edge. Albanian cement has average emissions of 4.71kg CO₂eq/€, 15% below ‘biting point’ and 13% below Türkiye’s 5.39CO₂eq/€. Albania’s government consolidated its anticipated gains by quintupling the coal tax for 2024 to €0.15/kg. The figure is based on the International Monetary Fund’s recommended minimum CO₂ emissions tax of €55.80/t, 21% shy of the current EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) credit price of €70.49/t.⁴

The Central Balkans is a region of apparently slow markets and industry growth regardless – to 11 cement plants, following the completion of current and upcoming projects. A recurrent theme of capital expenditure investments and the way investors talk about them may help to explain this: sustainability. Looking at the mix of technologies in the current nine plants, these include wet kilns and fuels lines built for conventional fossil fuels. This is not to presume that any given plant might not be happy with its existing equipment as is. Nonetheless, the overall picture is of a set of veteran plants with scope to benefit from the kind of investments which all four global cement producers active in the region are already carrying out elsewhere in Europe. Such plans may already be in motion. In late 2023, Titan Cement Group’s North Macedonian subsidiary Cementarnica Usje secured shareholder approval to take two new loans of up to €27m combined.

As the latest news from Serbia showed, taking care of existing plants does not preclude also building new ones. The cement industry of the Central Balkans is finding its position in the new reduced-CO₂ global cement trade – one in which old and new work together.

References

1. Trend Economy, ‘European Union – Imports and Exports – Articles of cement,’ 28 January 2024, https://trendeconomy.com/data/h2/EuropeanUnion/6810#

2. American Enterprise Institute, 'China Global Investment Tracker,' 3 February 2024 https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/

3. World Bank Group, ‘Relative CBAM Exposure Index,’ 15 June 2023, https://www.worldbank.org/en/data/interactive/2023/06/15/relative-cbam-exposure-index

4. Ember, 'Carbon Price Tracker,' 26 August 2024, https://ember-climate.org/data/data-tools/carbon-price-viewer/

Türkiye: Türkiye’s global cement exports declined by 9% to US$2.1bn during the first half of 2024, according to a statement from the Ministry of Trade. In June 2024, exports dropped by 18% to US$336.5m. However, Türkiye's cement exports to Azerbaijan remained steady at US$24.8m during the first half of 2024. In June 2024, exports to Azerbaijan rose by 16.5% year-on-year to US$3.5m. Since the first half of 2023, Türkiye exported cement products valued at US$4.3bn.

Türkiye: Türkiye exported cement products worth US$40.5m to Georgia from January to June 2024, marking an increase of 14% year-on-year. The Turkish Ministry of Trade reported that in June 2024, cement exports to Georgia totalled US$7.9m, up by 16% from June 2023. However, June 2024 saw Türkiye's global cement exports decline by 18% compared to June 2023, to US$336.5m.

Türkiye: The value of Türkiye's cement exports to Russia has fallen by 15.5% to US$40m in the first half of 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, according to Türkiye's Trade Ministry. In June 2024, cement exports to Russia totalled US$7.2m, down by 5.5% from June 2023.

Additionally, Türkiye's total cement exports from January to June 2024 decreased by 9.4%, amounting to US$2.1bn. June 2024 saw a significant reduction, with exports valued at US$336.5m, an 18.3% decline from 2023.

Both Limak Çimento and Cemento Yura revealed plans to work with hydrogen this week. Additionally, Lhyfe and Fives signed a deal to sell decarbonised products and services to industries, including cement, covering hydrogen production to combustion.

Türkiye-based Limak Çimento said that it had successfully conducted a hydrogen-enhanced alternative fuel test at its integrated Anka plant near Ankara. As part of the project it blended hydrogen with an alternative carbon-neutral fuel and then operated the plant’s kiln at a 50% substitution rate. The cement company says that the trial achieved a world first by feeding the hydrogen-enhanced fuel directly into the calciner instead of the main burner in the rotary kiln. According to local press, Air Liquide supplied grey hydrogen for the test, although this could be switched to green hydrogen in the future. As a reminder, ‘green’ hydrogen is produced by the electrolysis of water using renewable energy sources. ‘Grey’ hydrogen is made from steam reforming using fossil fuels.

Limak’s wider ambition is to use hydrogen-blended alternative fuels at all of its cement plants by 2030. By doing so it aspires to reduce its CO₂ emissions by 700,000t/yr. Its CEO Erkam Kocakerim remarked in mid-2023 that focusing on the carbon risks that energy-intensive industries might face exporting to the European Union (EU) paled in comparison to the potential payback from the green energy transition. At a climate change summit in mid-2023 organised by the United Nations and the Turkish government, he called for the Turkish Emission Trading System to be put into action as soon as possible, the creation of an updated renewable energy roadmap with renewable hydrogen, CCUS and renewable fuels, and the publication of a hydrogen and CO₂ country atlas. At the same time, he stated that the local cement sector could meet the EU’s 2030 emissions targets through the increased uptake of alternative fuels and blended cements.

Meanwhile in Peru this week Juan Carlos Burga, the general manager of Grupo Gloria subsidiary Cemento Yura, told the Gestión newspaper that its cement plant near Arequipa is preparing to start a green hydrogen trial in 2025. The catalyst for this is a solar power unit at the site that is currently scheduled for commissioning in early 2025. Once it is ready then the plant’s hydrogen project can use the renewable energy source to manufacture hydrogen and inject small quantities of it to stabilise the burning process and reduce the amount of coal used.

By contrast the memorandum of understanding that Lhyfe and Fives announced this week looks like the pair are marking their territory in the hydrogen supply and equipment chain for heavy industry. As part of the agreement the companies are targeting the metals, glass and cement industries and some other selected industrial heating processes and applications in Europe and North America. France-based Lhyfe develops, builds and runs green hydrogen production plants both for external clients and itself. It operates one plant at Bouin in France and is building other plants in France and Germany. However, the output of these sites is low. In spite of this, it says it is set to become the largest producer of renewable hydrogen in France in 2024. Fives, well known as a cement equipment supplier, says it has been a “technological leader in hydrogen for over 50 years” and that it sells “the widest range of hydrogen-proven burners available on the market to serve all industries.” The Lhyfe-Fives agreement follows a similar deal between Air Products and ThyssenKrupp Uhde Chlorine Engineers in 2020.

Projects in West Asia and South America such as those discussed by Limak Çimento and Cemento Yura are not necessarily where one might expect them to be. Typically all the sustainability news in the cement sector tends to be dominated by companies in Europe and North America. This is reflected in the continents that Lhyfe and Fives have targeted this week. Yet, the focus by Limak and Yura on hydrogen suggests that these companies are hunting for decarbonisation options that are cost effective ahead of potential legislative enforcement. Both appear to be using hydrogen as a fuel enhancer or additive rather than on its own.

We have reported upon a steady stream of hydrogen projects for the cement sector in the last year. These include Heidelberg Materials' study looking at using ammonia as a hydrogen source for fuelling cement kilns at its Ribblesdale cement plant in the UK, Fives work with Holcim at the La Malle plant in France and much work by Cemex such as the increase of its stake in green hydrogen production technology developer HiiROC in late 2023. As with Global Cement Weekly’s previous reporting on hydrogen, the jury is still out on whether it is a ‘goer’ for heavy industry at scale. An executive at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries told a conference in March 2024 that the infrastructure investment to support the use of hydrogen would cost over US$1Tn in the US and Europe alone. The head of Saudi Aramco then pointed out at the same event that oil and gas, for now at least, cost far less than hydrogen. Despite this, the projects keep coming.

Türkiye: Limak Çimento has received its inaugural delivery of green hydrogen from France-based Air Liquide at its Ankara cement plant. The partners say that the technology will reduce the plant’s CO₂ emissions by 180,000t/yr. ESMERK News has reported that the companies plan to commence a strategic collaboration for the development of green hydrogen ecosystems for the cement industry. Limak plans to implement net zero fuels in the kilns of all seven of its plants between 2035.

Saint-Gobain looks set to increase its presence in the construction chemicals market this week when it announced a deal to buy Fosroc. A definitive agreement has been set for the acquisition valued at just over US$1bn. The purchase will be financed in cash and is expected to close in the first half of 2025.

The light construction materials company has been growing its construction chemicals capabilities for several years now. In 2021 it acquired Chryso for Euro1.02bn and then it bought GCP Applied Technologies for Euro2.3bn in 2022. Acquisitions of smaller companies in the sector, including Duraziv and IMPAC, also took place. With regards to the proposed Fosroc transaction, Saint-Gobain highlighted in its press release that the deal was “supported by solid macroeconomic factors including the transition towards low-carbon concrete.” It also noted that Fosroc’s geographic profile would strengthen its own presence in emerging markets such as India and the Middle East. Chryso’s market share is mainly in Europe, Turkey and Africa. GCP’s is in North America, Latin America and Asia-Pacific.

As Riccardo Stoppa, Saint-Gobain’s Business Director of Cement additives related to Global Cement Magazine in our May 2024 issue, the Construction Chemicals Business Unit of Saint-Gobain’s High Performance Solutions (SGHS) division broadly produces two groups of products for the cement and concrete sector: additives and admixtures; and a wider range of more recent products using newer chemistry approaches. Saint-Gobain’s total annual revenue is around €48bn/yr with SGCC’s contribution weighing in at around €1bn/yr. Most of that latter revenue derives from the former businesses of Chryso and GCP. Finally, Stoppa highlighted SGCC’s strength in North America, Europe and China but also highlighted the potential in the Middle East for its products. That last point makes interesting reading in light of the current Fosroc deal.

India was flagged as a benefit of the proposed Fosroc purchase. If any further reminder of the growth and market consolidation taking place there were needed, UltraTech Cement revealed this week that it is in the process of buying a 23% share of The India Cements. This story ties into the rivalry between the country’s two largest cement companies. Both UltraTech Cement and Adani Group are mounting up production capacity at pace through both acquisitions and by building new plants. All of this is rosy news for a company selling additives and admixtures to the cement and concrete market.

Saint-Gobain latest acquisition is subject to the usual regulatory conditions as one might expect. Yet, what Saint-Gobain didn’t mention in its statement, was that it reportedly had one of its sites in Türkiye visited in late 2023 as part of an international investigation into anti-competitive behaviour in the sector. Switzerland-based Sika was also linked to the case at the time. The UK-based Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) announced in October 2023 that it had launched an investigation into suspected anti-competitive conduct in relation to the supply of chemicals for use in the construction industry. It said it was working with the European Commission and that it had been in contact with other authorities, including the US Department of Justice, Antitrust Division. At this time Sika confirmed to Construction News that inspections had taken place into “suspected antitrust irregularities in the area of additives for concrete and cement.” However, it is important to note here that these were merely information gathering activities and no accusations of any breaches of competition law have been made so far. All of this suggests that Saint-Gobain does not seem too troubled by the interest of the various competition bodies with regards to its expansion plans.

In his interview, Stoppa told Global Cement Magazine that SGCC’s products allow cement and concrete producers to reduce the amount of cement used in their concrete. This is almost heretical thinking to a world that produces too much clinker. Yet Saint-Gobain is betting on exactly this outcome through the expansion of its construction chemicals division. Its purchase of Fosroc is the latest stage in this line of thought. It’s not the only company doing this. In May 2023 Sika completed its purchase of MBCC Group, another admixture manufacturer. Further sector consolidation looks likely.

Türkiye: Çimsa has secured a US$26.7m loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The bank says that the loans will finance decarbonisation projects, including the establishment of waste heat recovery (WHR) and solar power units.

Çimsa CEO Umut Zenar said, "We are determined to advance our sustainability goals and take important steps in our energy efficiency and decarbonisation efforts. This collaboration with the EBRD represents a significant milestone in our journey towards a greener future. We are proud to be the first cement company in Türkiye to receive this type of financing from the EBRD, reflecting our commitment to leading the industry in sustainability initiatives.”

The EBRD expects Türkiye to require US$10bn worth of investments up to 2030 to be on track for its target of net zero CO₂ emissions by 2053.

Türkiye: Türkiye's exports of cement products to China grew 3% year-on-year to US$1.6m from January to April 2024, Trend News Agency reports. In April 2024, exports surged to US$537,000, up by 30% from April 2023, according to the Trade Ministry.

Conversely, Türkiye's global cement product exports fell 8% to US$1.4bn in the same period, with April 2024 witnessing a 9% decline to US$339.2m. Over the past 12 months, from April 2023 to April 2024, Türkiye's total cement exports reached US$4.5bn.

Before Russia invaded mainland Ukraine on 24 February 2023, many predicted that full-scale conflict would be averted. When the attack began, Russian President Vladimir Putin himself expected a 10-day war, according to think tank RUSI. 15 May 2024 marks two years, two months and three weeks of fighting, with no end in sight.

Ukrcement, the Ukrainian cement association, recently published its cement market data for 2023, the first full year of the war. The data showed domestic cement consumption of 5.4Mt, up by 17% year-on-year from 4.6Mt in 2022, but down by 49% from pre-war levels of 10.6Mt in 2021. In 2023, Ukraine’s 14.8Mt/yr production capacity was 2.7 times greater than its consumption, compared to 1.4 times in 2021. Of Ukraine’s nine cement plants, one (the 1.8Mt/yr Amwrossijiwka plant in Donetsk Oblast) now lies behind Russian lines. Four others sit within 300km of the front line in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. Among these, the 4.4Mt/yr Balakliia plant in Kharkiv Oblast, the largest in the country, first fell to the Russians, but was subsequently liberated in September 2022.

Before the war, Ukrcement’s members held a 95% share in the local cement market. Their only competitors were Turkish cement exporters across the Black Sea, after the Ukrainian Interdepartmental Commission on International Trade successfully implemented anti-dumping duties against cement from Moldova and now-sanctioned Belarus and Russia in 2019. Since then, Turkish cement has also become subject to tariffs of 33 – 51% upon entry into Ukraine, until September 2026. The relative shortfall in consumption has led Ukraine’s cement producers to lean on their own export markets. They increased their exports by 33% year-on-year to 1.24Mt in 2023, 330,000t (27%) of it to neighbouring Poland.

Russia’s invasion has made 3.5m Ukrainians homeless and put the homes of 2.4m more in need of repair. In a report published in Ukrainian, the US Agency for International Development (USAID) set out its three-year rebuilding plan for the country. USAID projects an investment cost of €451bn, with the ‘main task’ besides homebuilding being to increase the share of industrial production in the economy. Ukraine is 90% equipped to produce all building materials required under the plan. Their production, in turn, will create or maintain 100,000 jobs and US$6.5bn in tax revenues. Reconstruction will also involve the Ukrainian cement industry returning to close to full capacity utilisation, producing 15 – 16Mt/yr of cement.

CRH, an established local player of 25 years, looks best set to claim a share of the proceeds. Stepping down an order of magnitude from billions to millions, Global Cement recently reported CRH’s total investments in Ukraine to date as €465m. Since war broke out, the company has more than tripled its rate of investment, to €74.5m. The Ireland-based group is in the protracted administrative process of acquiring the Ukrainian business of Italy-based Buzzi. If successful, the deal will raise its Ukrainian capacity by 56%, to 8.4Mt/yr – 57% of national capacity. This unusual clumping of ownership may be made possible by the participation of European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in partly acquiring the assets, as per a mandate letter signed with CRH in 2023.

Leading Ukrainian cement buyer Kovalska Industrial-Construction Group bemoaned the anticipated increase in market concentration. On the one hand, this sounds like a classic tiff between cement producers and users with shallow pockets. On the other hand, an antebellum allegation of cement industry cartelisation should give us pause for thought. Non-governmental organisation The Antitrust League previously reported Ukraine’s four cement producers to the government’s Anti-Monopoly Committee for alleged anticompetitive behavior. This was in September 2021, when Ukraine was barely out of lockdown, let alone up in arms. With all that has happened since, it may seem almost ancient history, yet the players are the same, CRH and Buzzi among them.

Ukrcement and its members have secured favourable protections from the Trade Commission, and, for whatever reasons, evaded the inconvenience of investigation by the Anti-Monopoly Committee – a state of affairs over which the Antitrust League called the committee ‘very weak.’ The league says that producers previously raised prices by 35 – 50% in the three years up to 2021. In planning a fair and equitable reconstruction, Ukrainians might reasonably seek assurance that this will not happen again.

All these discussions are subject to a time-based uncertainty: the end of the war in Ukraine. A second question is where the finances might come from. The EU approved funding for €17bn in grants and €33bn in loans for Ukraine on 14 May 2024. Meanwhile, countries including the UK have enacted legislation to ensure Russia settles the cost of the conflict at war’s end. If Ukraine achieves its military aims, then the finances may flow from the same direction as did the armaments that demolished Ukrainian infrastructure in the first place.

The first piece of Ukraine annexed by Russia was Crimea in February 2014, making the invasion over a decade old. Against such a weight of tragedy, the country cannot lose sight of the coming restoration work, and of the need to ensure that it best serve Ukrainians.