Displaying items by tag: UltraTech Cement

This week we heard news of two potential bidders for Lafarge and Holcim divestments. However, for a change it was where they will not be bidding that was of interest: Brazil. India's UltraTech Cement and Colombia's Cementos Argos now seem to have no interest in developing their positions in South America's largest cement market, having both previously stated their interest.

The Brazilian assets to be sold are three integrated cement plants and two grinding plants that share a capacity of 3.6Mt/yr (as well as a one ready-mix plant). Cementos Argos came out and said that it would not be bidding. UltraTech's position is more of a rumour, given by 'a source close to the company' that was not revealed by local media. However, both stories suggest that Brazil is currently not a good place for cement producers to buy up assets.

The reasons for these decisions are related to the state of the Brazilian economy, which has seen sub 2% growth in the last 11 quarters. The economy actually contracted by 0.9% in the second quarter of 2014 and by 0.25% in the third quarter of 2014. A 0.2% rise in the fourth quarter will be negated by a fall of 0.28% in the first quarter of 2015. Over the course of 2015 the IMF forecasts growth of 1.4%.

Although Brazilian cement production has risen from around 40Mt/yr in 2006 to around 70Mt/yr in 2013, it has been growing by lower and lower amounts each year. In 2013, it rose by 1.5% year-on-year, down from a 6.7% rise in 2012, an 8.3% rise in 2011 and a near 16% rise in 2010. Taken along with the IMF's GDP growth forecast, there is a genuine chance that Brazilian cement sales could plateau in 2014 or 2015. There will certainly be better places to try to sell cement over the next couple of years, hence the eagerness with which Cementos Argos declared its position.

One country that Cementos Argos has said it's looking at Lafarge and Holcim assets in is Mexico. Its economy is anticipated to grow by 3.5% in 2015, more than twice as quickly as Brazil and far more than the Americas as a whole (2.2%). Another anticipated strong performer in 2015 will be the US (3.1%), where Cementos Argos acquired assets in 2013. This week also saw the news that the Portland Cement Association's 8.1% cement consumption forecast for 2014 will be met.

Taking this all together, it appears that economic growth, and hence cement demand growth, will return to North America in earnest in 2015. Meanwhile South America's largest market is starting to lag behind. How will the rest of the two continents fare in 2015 and beyond?

India: UltraTech Cement has appointed Atul Daga as Chief Financial Officer of the company in place of KC Birla with effect from 1 December 2014. The decision was made at a board of directors meeting on 18 October 2014. The term of appointment of the managing director OP Puranmalka was extended for a period of one year until 31 March 2016.

India: UltraTech Cement Limited has appointed Sukanya Kripalu and Renuka Ramnath as additional independent directors with effect from 11 October 2014.

India: UltraTech Cement has announced that M Damodaran, the company's Independent Director, has resigned from the board with effect from 20 June 2014. Damodaran has cited increasing work load and time commitments as well as the need to reduce his board level engagements as the reasons for stepping down.

India: UltraTech Cement has appointed Arun Adhikari as an Additional Independent Director on the Board with effect from 3 December 2013.

Step forward UltraTech Cement into the vertical rumour mill! The Indian cement producer is the latest company reported as wanting to buy Jaypee Group's cement business in Gujarat. It follows Italcementi, Aditya Birla and CRH, who announced in October 2012 that negotiations had been 'terminated' as the parties had been unable to agree terms.

This time the asking price has risen, with Ultratech allegedly offering US$160-165/t and Jaypee holding out for US$180-185/t. Whilst UltraTech hasn't publicly confirmed the move, it pointedly hasn't denied it either. The Aditya Birla Group subsidiary only commented to the Bombay Stock Exchange that it had not issued any press releases on the subject. Aditya Birla Group itself was reported in October 2012 as pursing interest at US$130/t for Jaypee's 9.8Mt/yr operations in Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh.

Given the number of rumours and cash-rich CRH's very public failure to strike a deal it seems likely that Jaypee has a specific price in mind and it's sticking to it. Prasad Baji of Edelweiss Securities stated in a television interview with CNBC-TV18 that he thought that the cement industry cycle was starting to look up. Crucially he predicted that India's capacity utilisation was set to rise from its current level of 78% to 82% despite price declines in the current quarter.

This is in sharp contrast with Fitch Ratings which rated the Indian cement industry with a negative outlook at the start of 2012 and reports in late May 2012 that capacity ultilisation had actually fallen from 76% to 71%. Since then ICRA Research reported in late September 2012 that it expected Indian capacity ultilisation to stick to 76% for 2012 with prices showing 'resistance' in some regions to cost increases due to rising input costs.

With all this in mind it seems likely that UltraTech will join the growing list of Jaypee's spurned buyers when it fails to reach terms or when the rumours simply fizzle out. However if UltraTech does strike a deal the Indian industry will be the one to watch in 2013. According to data in the Global Cement Directory 2013, an acquisition of nearly 10Mt/yr production capacity would boost UltraTech's capacity to 62Mt/yr making it the 12th largest cement company in the world.