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Kenya: Cement consumption has fallen for the first time since 2000. It fell by 8.2% year-on-year to 6.2Mt in 2017 from 6.7Mt in 2016, according to data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics reported on by the Daily Nation newspaper. Reduced demand for building materials in the construction sector occurred at the same time as a fall in the value of building plans approved in 2017.
Colombia: Cement production fell by 3.3% year-on-year to 2.9Mt in the first quarter of 2018 from 3Mt in the same period in 2017. Local despatches fell by 5.45 to 2.84Mt from 3Mt, according to data from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE).
Update on Saudi Arabia
25 April 2018No consolidation has happened yet in the Saudi Arabian cement industry but exports have started to be announced. Yanbu Cement signed an export deal in March 2018 to despatch 1Mt of clinker and 0.5Mt of cement from one year from 1 April 2018. Prior to that, Al Jouf Cement Company started a contract to export 72.000t/yr to Jordan from late February 2018. Earlier still, Bahrain was expected to benefit from a lifting of cement export tariffs at the end of January 2018.
Its early days yet but some of sort of action is starting to happen about the country’s falling cement sales. If export deals are in the early stages of being set following the lifting of the ban, then local movements of cement have intensified. As Al Rajhi Capital reports in its latest market update, that producers have been forced by low sales and high inventory levels to take action. It says that cement companies have started to sell products in different parts of the country than they do normally leading to a ‘price war’. The financial services and analytical company has pinpointed the central region as the key battleground as company market shares have fallen over the last six months as northern producers have moved in.
Graph 1: Cement sales (Mt) by quarter in Saudi Arabia, 2015 to March 2018. Source: Yamama Cement.
Cement sales fell by 15% year-on-year to 11.8Mt in the first quarter of 2018 from 13.7Mt in the same period in 2017. This is the first time in recent years that sales did not rise from the fourth quarter to the following first quarter. Not a good sign. Despite the bad news, a few producers did mange to increases their deliveries in the first quarter, including Saudi Cement, Hail Cement, Umm Al Qura Cement and United Cement.
Bizarrely, into this sales environment, plans for the long delayed Al Baha Cement cement plant project have re-emerged. The project previously has received coverage at various stages over the years. This time it has reportedly gained a licence to set up the company and it hopes to start tendering for the build in the second half of 2018. The investors may want to leave it a little longer given the current state of the Saudi cement industry.
Iranian cement production remains stagnant
19 April 2018Iran: Cement production remained stagnant at 54.5Mt during the Iranian financial year that ended on 20 March 2018. Clinker production was reported as 57.9Mt, according to ISNA. The country produced 54.1Mt of cement in the preceding financial year. The lack of growth has been blamed on a recession in the construction sector, poor supply of gas to industrial users and declines in the export market.
Exports fell by 9% year-on-year to 5.8Mt in the 2018 period, according to Abdolreza Sheikhan, the secretary of Iran's Cement Industry Employers Association, with particular declines noted in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iraq temporarily banned imports from Iran in 2015 due to low quality but volumes fell following the resumption of trade. Cement shipments to Russia have also reportedly been returned due to quality issues. An arrangement with the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines to implement a 30% discount for cement cargos to Persian Gulf states has been agreed but it is yet to be implemented.
Indonesia: Cement sales rose by 8.4% year-on-year to 16.4Mt in the first quarter of 2018 from 15.1Mt in the same period in 2017. Particular rises were noted in Central Java, Sumatra and Kalimantan, according to data from the Indonesian Cement Association. Total exports of cement and clinker rose by 79.6% to 0.70Mt from 0.39Mt.
Tajikistan: Cement production has more than doubled to 0.78Mt in the first quarter of 2018 from 0.36Mt in the same period in 2016. The rise has been attributed to new infrastructure projects, increased residential construction and higher exports, according to the Azer News newspaper. 172,000t of cement was exported to Uzbekistan, 131,000t to Afghanistan and 19,000t to Kyrgyzstan. 3.1Mt of cement was produced in the country in 2017 and over 1Mt of this was exported to the three countries led by Afghanistan.
The country has 13 cement producers with a total production capacity of over 4Mt/yr. However, the country is estimated to only need up to 3.5Mt/yr.
Saudi Arabia: Cement sales fell by 11% year-on-year to 11.8Mt in the first quarter of 2018 due to a continued slowdown in the construction industry. Weak demand and high inventory levels has forced cement producers to sell their cement in other parts of the country and export to other countries, according to a report by Al Rajhi Capital. The report cited Yanbu Cement's export agreement although it said that its low production costs gives the company the advantage to export at lower prices than its competitors.
Increased competition within Saudi Arabia has led to a price war. The report marked the central region as an attractive region for northern region cement companies due to the relatively bigger market. The sales market share for northern cement companies increased in the last six months. On the other hand, central region companies' market share decreased slightly during the same period.
Yanbu Cement signed a one-year agreement to export 1Mt of clinker and 0.5Mt of cement from April 2018. It is estimated that the deal with Yanbu Cement US$26.6m in extra sales revenue in 2018. Al Rajhi Capital reckoned that the cement producer would be likely to renew the export deal in 2019 as its low margins are unlikely to aid earnings.
Polish cement sales rise by 7% to 18Mt in 2017
13 April 2018Poland: Cement sales rose by 7% year-on-year to around 18Mt in 2017, according to the Polish Cement Association. The country has a cement production capacity of 24Mt/yr and the capacity utilisation rate is approximately 75%. The Institute of Economic Forecasting and Analysis forecasts that sales will grow by 8% in 2018 to 17.9Mt.
Dominican Republic cement sales fall slightly in 2017
13 April 2018Dominican Republic: Cement sales fell slightly by 1.5% year-on-year to 4.18Mt in 2017 from 4.24Mt in 2018. Adocem, the Dominican Portland Cement Producers Association, blamed the slowdown on a slowdown of the general economy. It also reported that exports grew in 2017 to 20.1% of production from 17.3% in 2016.
Morocco: Cement consumption fell by 6.91% to 3.31Mt in the first three months of 2018 from 3.55Mt in the same period of 2017. Consumption decreased particularly in the Dakhla - Oued Ed-Dahab, Fès - Meknès and Béni Mellal - Khénifra regions according to Ministry of Housing data. It also dropped sharply in March 2018 by 15.1% to 1.24Mt.