Global Cement Newsletter

Issue: GCW380 / 21 November 2018

Headlines


A couple of long-running news stories popped up this week, led by the Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) latest forecast for the US market. Chief economist Ed Sullivan and the Market Intelligence Group predict slowing cement consumption growth to 2020 as the recovery period ends following the financial crash in 2008. The background to this is an expected rise in interest rates dragging on the construction market, a limited boost from the Trump administration’s tax cuts and rising debt levels hitting federal infrastructure spending.

This marks an abrupt turnaround from the PCA’s April 2018 forecast in which potential federal infrastructure spending was anticipated to kick in towards the end of 2019 creating 4% growth in 2020. To give the PCA credit, it did say at the time that this was contingent on a couple of key steps, including passage of an infrastructure bill, federal and state paperwork, bid letting and review and finally, contract awards leading to construction. Following the US mid-term elections in early November 2018 the prospect of an infrastructure bills seems remoter than before given the political differences between the US House of Representatives and the Senate. This may have been the final straw for the PCA and it adapted its forecast accordingly.

Graph 1: Cement shipments in the US, January – August 2013 - January – August 2018. Source: Portland Cement Association (PCA).

Graph 1: Cement shipments in the US, January – August 2013 - January – August 2018. Source: Portland Cement Association (PCA).

It is also worth reflecting on the third quarter financial results of the multinational cement producers over the last few weeks. CRH may have been crowing this week about how its US performance was driving its business in the wake of its acquisition of Ash Grove Cement and other assets, but many of the other multinational cement producers weren’t. HeidelbergCement, Buzzi Unicem and Titan all blamed the weather in the US for dragging on their results. LafargeHolcim said it suffered less with a ‘soft’ first quarter in 2018 followed by recovery.

The other story this week with relevance to the US was the continued speculation in the Canadian press about the future of the McInnis Cement plant in Quebec. The latest update is that the plant’s shareholders have asked the provincial government if they can swap the debt the province holds in the venture for equity. This has been seen as a potential bid to keep the company operational while it continues to hunt for a buyer. Rumours of a sale have swirled around since the start of 2018, with the Global and Mail newspaper naming HeidelbergCement as being potentially interested. Three bids have been reportedly made by unnamed parties but they were rejected for being too low. A slowing US cement market is particularly bad news for McInnis Cement. The plant is situated on the Atlantic Coast of Canada and exports to the US have been seen as a major part of its business. To this end it officially opened its marine terminal in the Bronx, New York in October 2018.

The main US market needs to find an alternative to the ‘fabled’ infrastructure bill if it wants better growth. Yet, reduced US cement consumption growth won’t help McInnis’ shareholders recoup the money they have sunk in the project. Somebody seems certain to lose in this situation and, with a protectionist incumbent in the White House, it seems likely to be somebody north of the border.


Malaysia: Lafarge Malaysia has appointed Yeoh Khoon Cheng as its interim chief executive officer (CEO).

Yeoh started his career with Deloitte Kassim Chan in 1979. He joined Lafarge Malaysia in 1987 as finance manager and has held various positions involving business development, mergers and acquisitions and corporate finance activities and acted as company secretary from 1990 to 1998. He was appointed as executive director and chief financial officer (CFO) in 1999. From mid-2011 to the end of 2015, he was the CFO for Lafarge Cement China. Latterly, Yeoh was the CFO of Huaxin Cement in China from 2016 to mid-2017. He is a member of the Malaysian of Institute of Accountants and the Malaysian Institute of Certified Public Accountants.


Kenya: The East Africa Portland Cement Company (EAPCC) has received backing from the Ministry of Trade to sell unused land to pay off debts and commitments of nearly US$150m. The ministry said that a cabinet memorandum is ready to grant the company approval to sell off its assets, according to the Business Daily newspaper. The cement producer says it needs the funds to pay employee benefits, pay suppliers, pay off debts to companies including the Kenya Commercial Bank and the Japanese International Cooperation Agency and refurbish its plant. The cement producer says it wants to spend US$19.5m towards refurbishing its plant in a one-to-two month shutdown. At present the unit is operating at a 50% capacity utilisation rate.


Philippines: Cemex Philippines’ subsidiary APO Cement plans to close its Davao cement terminal and indefinitely suspend one of its kilns at its Barangay plant in Cebu. It said in a statement that it had taken this action due to uncertainty caused by the disruption to its raw material supply, according to GMA News. It follows the on-going suspension of APO Land and Quarry following a landslide in September 2018. APO Land & Quarry supplies raw materials to APO Cement.


Vietnam: Associate Professor Dinh Trong Thinh, of the Academy of Finance – part of the Ministry of Finance, has conceded that exported cement from the country has a low price due to the poorer quality of some of its product. In an interview with the ministry’s press service, Vietnam Economic News, he said that some smaller and medium-sized cement producers use old technology such as shaft kilns, according to Việt Nam News newspaper. He added that local producers were forced to export cement at lower prices than it is sold domestically to reduce inventory. He noted that this was not sustainable in the long run due to production costs and overseas competition.


Austria: Zement Leube has acquired a 24.99% stake in Asamer. It made the purchase from Kurt Asamer who had decided to leave his 33% share in the business, according to the Oberösterreichische Nachrichten (OÖN) newspaper. The other partners in the business, Manfred Asamer and Robert Pree, have taken over some of Kurt Asamer’s holdings given them a majority share of 75.01%. Asamer is a building materials company that producer’s aggregates and concrete. It also owns cement production assets, including Fabrika Cementa Lukavac in Bosnia & Herzegovina.


UK: Breedon Group’s sales revenue rose by 32% year-on-year to Euro830m in the first 10 months of 2018. The result included the contribution of Lagan Group, which it purchased in April 2018. It described its cement business as performing within expectations.


Romania: The Competition Council has launched an investigation into an alleged anti-competitive agreement between Holcim, CRH and HeidelbergCement in early November 2018. It is concerned that there has been possible coordination of prices between the companies since 2010. As part of the probe, it conducted raids at the headquarters of the three companies and seized documentation. It has warned that fines of up to 10% of company turnover are applicable should it find any evidence of collusion. However, it also mentioned that companies that cooperated with the competition authority could expect leniency in the form of immunity to or reduced fines.


Pakistan: The Supreme Court has ordered DG Khan Cement to pay nearly US$0.6m into a dam fund in relation to falling water levels at the Katas Raj Temples in Chakwal, Punjab. The cement producer must make a deposit of US$0.5m as payment for water it used and US$0.1m as a penalty for ‘misleading’ the court, according to the Nation newspaper. The court has accused the company of pumping water from boreholes leading to water loss at a pond at the temples.


Ireland: CRH’s sales rose by 3% year-on-year to Euro19.9bn in the first nine months of 2018. Its earnings before interest, taxation, deprecation and amortisation (EBITDA) increased by 2% on a like-for-like basis to Euro2.5bn. The building materials producer said that its earnings had been supported by growth in the Americas despite poor weather. It added that ‘momentum’ remained positive in Europe and demand had improved in Asia. However, its EBITDA dropped by 44% in Asia.

By region the group reported falling cement sales volumes in the UK and Ukraine. Sales volumes rose in most other European territories, with particular growth in Hungary, Germany, Poland, Serbia and Switzerland. In the US it said that its newly acquired Ash Grove Cement assets and ones in Florida had performed in line with expectations. However, sales in Canada fell due to poor weather. Sales in the Philippines rose by 3% due to rising cement sales volumes and prices following growing demand. However, here earnings were hit by higher fuel and power costs.


India: The Supreme Court has upheld a decision by the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT) to approve a revised US$1.11bn bid for Binani Cement. The court rejected a challenge by Rajputana Properties, a subsidiary of rival bidder Dalmia Bharat group, according to the Hindu newspaper. UltraTech Cement made a direct bid for the bankrupt Binani Cement following an auction in March 2018 that was originally won by Dalmia Bharat. Dalmia Bharat disputed UltraTech Cement’s offer and the two companies have conducted legal campaigns to reinforce their respective claims.


Mozambique: The National Inspectorate of Economic Activities (INAE) says that all cement producers must include an expiry date on cement packaging. The decision follows a study looking at the production, labelling, sale and transport of cement, according to the Mozambique News Agency. The ruling applies to both locally produced and imported cement.

INAE has requested that any cement should be sold at least three weeks prior to its expiry date. It is intended to give consumers consistent information about the date of production, the type of cement, the quality and the price. The central government agency is also hosting talks with local government to help provide warehouse space to distributors and retailers selling cement. It aims to stop the sale of cement on the street.


New Zealand: Fletcher Building says that its Golden Bay Cement plant in Auckland was forced stop its cement mill for four weeks in September 2018. It said it had insurance to cover this but that its earnings for its 2019 financial year are likely to be impacted by up to US$8m. Generally, the building materials producer reported that, until the end of October 2018, its business in New Zealand had been flat. In Australia it is facing ‘challenging’ conditions with growing input prices and a slowing residential sector.


Philippines: Cemex Philippines is facing legal action in relation to the quarry operations of its subsidiary in Naga following a landslide that killed nearly 80 people in September 2018. It said that it had received a summons order for the class suit along with its subsidiary APO Cement, according to the BusinessWorld newspaper. The defendants also include APO Land & Quarry, the Mines and Geosciences Bureau Regional Office VII, the City Government of Naga and the Province of Cebu. The lawsuit is attempting to seek damages of up to US$80m on environmental grounds on relation to the quarry.


Pakistan: The Peshawar High Court has temporarily ordered Sui Northern Gas Pipelines (SNGP) not to charge Lucky Cement a higher price for gas. The cement producer took legal action against the supplier, the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) and the Ministry of Energy following a price increase of 142% in October 2018, according to the Dawn newspaper. The court has asked OGRA to respond to questions about the price rise. Lawyers on behalf of the Lucky Cement argue that the increase in the cost of gas was taken without following the normal legal requirements.


Chile: Cementos Melon has completed a US$25m upgrade to its Puerto Montt grinding plant. The expansion has doubled its production capacity to 0.6Mt/yr from 0.3Mt/yr, according to the Diario Financiero. The project is intended to meet growing demand for cement in the south of the country.


Canada: Quebec's Ministry of Economy and Innovation has confirmed that it has received a request from the shareholders of McInnis Cement to swap the debt the province holds in the venture for equity. A request has been made to the ministry and to Investissement Québec, the provincial government's investment arm, to convert almost US$200m of debt into shares in the cement producer, according to the Globe and Mail newspaper. The newspaper speculates that an arrangement of this kind could be part of a potential deal with creditors to reduce the company’s liabilities and enable it to continue to operate.

McInnis Cement’s plant at Port-Daniel–Gascons was inaugurated in mid-2017. Construction at the site started in mid-2014. However, cost overruns saw the government-backed project delayed and then taken over by an investor, the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ), a pension and insurance fund manager. The CDPQ was reportedly considering options including selling the plant or securing more investment in early 2018. Three bids were made for the cement producer but were rejected as being too low, according to reporting by the Globe and Mail. Interested parties in the company included Germany’s HeidelbergCement.


El Salvador: Holcim El Salvador has received a ‘Special Mention’ from the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources as part of the 2018 National Environment Awards, according to the El Mundo newspaper. It won the recognition for its environmental strategy, including efforts to recover and manage eco-systems around its quarries in Metapan.


Kenya: Edward Ouko, the Auditor-General, has described the East Africa Portland Cement Company (EAPCC) as insolvent because it cannot pay its debts. The cement producer made an operating loss of US$34m in its financial year that ended on 30 June 2018, according to the Standard newspaper. Its revenue fell by 25% year-on-year to US$50m. The company said it devised a new strategy to focus distribution on it own depots and to compete on pricing to counteract a lack of distribution of its products in common retail stores.


Nigeria: The Federal Government says it is investigating complaints from residents at Akinbo village near to the quarry of Lafarge Africa’s Ewekoro cement plant in Ogun State. Local residents have complained about breeches of local environmental legislation at the site, according to the Vanguard newspaper. Adegboyega Salam, the Director of Mines Environmental Compliance Department from the Federal Ministry of Mines and Steel Development, said that the issue was related to relocation of the community. He added that he had asked Lafarge Africa for comment. The dispute relates to an agreement between the cement producer and the local community in 2012.


Nepal: Ghorahi Cement has been praised by the Inland Revenue Department for paying one of the highest amount of value added tax (VAT) in the country in the 2017 – 2018 financial year, according to the Himalayan Times. The cement producer was awarded the accolade as part of the seventh National Tax Day.


US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) forecasts that cement consumption growth will drop to 2.6% in 2019 and 1.6% in 2020. This compares to 2.9% in 2018. The PCA’s Market Intelligence Group has blamed the softening on rising interest rates, local financial problems at the state level and a general end to the recovery period following the financial crash in 2008.

“We are expecting relatively modest but sustained interest rate increases after 10 years of low and stable rates,” said PCA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Ed Sullivan. “The Federal Reserve’s actions will gradually slow the construction sector’s growth due to, among other things, the higher mortgage rates for residential buildings and higher borrowing cost for non-residential buildings.” He added that tax cuts passed at the end of 2017 had boosted the overall economy but that rising debt levels was likely to frame the discussion of future federal public infrastructure spending.


El Salvador: Guatamala’s Cemento Regional has ordered a Plug&Grind modular grinding unit for a project in El Salvador. The project includes a Plug&Grind Classic, a modular packaging and palletising system, raw material and cement storage halls and silos for bulk dispatching. The new unit is scheduled to be commissioned in the first half of 2019. It will have a production capacity of 12t/hr.


Australia: Industry groups, including cement producers, are lobbying against a new import tax, the Biosecurity Imports Levy. They allege that that new tariff will increase costs by 3000 - 5000% on the inputs for cement, steel and aluminium production, according to the Australian newspaper. The new levy was introduced in the May 2018 budget for implementation in July 2019. It intends to tighten the country’s biosecurity.

Industry lobbyists complain that it will impose a US$0.7/t levy on ‘non-containerised’ cargo for biosecurity inspections, dramatically increasing the cost of inspection for bulk imports of materials. They also deny that it will improve biosecurity outcomes.

Cement Industry Federation chief executive Margie Thomson said that the tax unfairly punished non-containerised cargoes. “It shouldn’t be a tonnage levy, when the biosecurity risk is not­associated with the product.”


Kazakhstan/Uzbekistan: Kazakhstan’s SAS-Tobe Technologies has increased its exports to Uzbekistan. It is the first Kazakh manufacturer accredited at the Uzbek Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange, according to the Podrobno News Agency. The company has sold around 1500t through the exchange in the last two months. It now plans to export over 50% of its 0.25Mt/yr production capacity.


Uzbekistan: Cement production has fallen by 4.7% year-on-year to 5.6Mt in the first nine months of 2018 from 5.9Mt in the same period in 2017. The decline has been blamed on rising gas and electricity prices, according to the Trend News Agency. Energy prices have risen by at least 60% so far in 2018. 4.5Mt of production, or over 80%, was sold through the Uzbek Commodity Exchange.


Tunisia: Carthage Cement’s loss has grown to US$16.2m in the first half of 2018 compared to US$9.6m in the same period in 2017. The cement producer has managed to increase its revenue but mounting operating costs have outpaced this, according to African Manager. Its turnover grew by 25.6% year-on-year to US$32.9m but operating expenses rose by 38.5% to US$47.6m. A dispute between management and staff also led to a production suspension in the first half of 2018.

A majority stake in the cement producer remains on sale following a call for expressions of interest in early 2018. The latest round of bidding is open until early December 2018.


UAE: National Cement Company’s profit fell by 5.8% to US$12.1m in the first nine months of 2018 from US$12.9m in the same period in 2017. This was accompanied by a marked increase in administration, selling and distribution costs. Despite this, its revenue rose by 7.6% to US$55m from US$41.8m.


Montenegro: The Chamber of Economy of Montenegro has discussed plans to build a new cement plant at Pljevlja. The project has been proposed to reduce imports of cement, grow the local economy and take advantage of local resources, according to the Vijesti newspaper. The location is favoured due to local reserves of marl, coal, gypsum and fly ash from a local coal-fired power station. However, Dragica Sekulić, the minister of economy, said that the project would require a ‘serious’ investor.

In 2017 the country imported cement with a value of Euro41m. In the first nine months of 2018 it has imported Euro39m worth of cement.


Vietnam: Ha Thanh Cement has been blocked from building a 0.5Mt/yr grinding plant in the Tran De Industrial Park in Soc Trang province. The Ministry of Construction said it did not conform to current regulations, according to the Việt Nam News newspaper. The ministry added that the company could not set up the grinding plant as there was no clinker line with the same output capacity in the region. It cited Planning 1488 on Vietnam’s cement development for the 2011 - 2020 period, with vision until 2030. Existing regulations require all cement grinding plants to accompany clinker production lines and do not allow for any standalone grinding plants.


India: JK Lakshmi Cement’s income fell slightly to US$250m in the first half of its financial year to 30 September 2018, from US$251m in the same period in 2017. Its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) decreased by 13% to US$29.4m from US433.7m It has blamed the fall in its profitability on rising petcoke and diesel prices.

In its half-year report it added that work on a 20MW power plant at its Durg cement plant is expected to be completed by the end of March 2019. A cement grinding plant in Orissa is also expected to be finished from the start of 2019.


Pakistan: The Supreme Court has appointed a special committee to visit the DG Khan’s cement plant in Chakwal to investigate how it stores water. The committee will report back to the court about the capacity of the reservoirs built by the plant as well as whether they were filled by extracting water from the aquifer or from rainwater, according to the Dawn newspaper. The committee will also take samples of water from the reservoirs.

The court has been looking into how DG Khan and Bestway Cement set up cement plants in the Potohar region related to water issues at the nearby Katas Raj Temples. Previously, the court was told that the DG Khan Cement was only operating tube-wells for domestic use by its workers but a witness alleged that the plants were extracting water for industrial use from the water table.


France: Bénédicte de Bonnechose, the president of the French cement industry union (SFIC), says that country’s cement market is expected to grow by 3% in 2018. She made the comments whilst unveiling local CO2 reduction targets by 2050, according to the Agence France Presse. The local industry recorded growth of 4% in 2017. She described 2018 as a ‘positive recovery’ with sustained growth following a good first half.

SFIC forecasts that new low-clinker cement products will enter the market by mid-2020. These products include EMC II / CM, EMC VI and LC3 types of cement. These should reduce the CO2 emissions related to current sold cement products by 35%. Other CO2 capture initiatives including Oxyfuel, Leiliac and calcium looping cleanker technologies were also mentioned.


Angola: Manuel Pacavira Júnior, the chairman of the Angolan Cement Industry Association (AICA) does not believe that the cement production utilisation rate in the country will reach 30% in 2018. Pacavira Júnior described the situation as one of ‘significant losses’ given that local producers are suffering from high operating costs, according to the Angola Press Agency. The country has a cement production capacity of 8.6Mt/yr but it only consumed 2.6Mt in 2017. This follows cement production of 3.87Mt in 2016, 5.2Mt in 2015 and 4.92Mt in 2.14. The five local producers are continuning to operate but at reduced levels due to the poor market. They are looking to build their export markets.