Global Cement Newsletter

Issue: GCW450 / 08 April 2020

Headlines


As India reaches two weeks into its 21 day lockdown to combat coronavirus, the financial analysts are starting to publish their forecasts as to what the effects will be for the cement industry. The results are gloomy, with demand predicted to drop by up to 25% in the financial year to March 2021 by one analyst and 40% in March 2020 alone by another.

Graph 1: Indian cement production, rolling annual by month, January 2018 – February 2020. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

Graph 1: Indian cement production, rolling annual by month, January 2018 – February 2020. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.


The graph above sets the scene for what may be to come by showing the state of production in India in recent years. From early 2018 it picked up by 17% to 337Mt by March 2019 and stayed around there through the rest of year before breeching 340Mt in January and February 2020. The (relative) lull in production growth in 2019 was blamed by some analysts on the general election in mid-2019 and then the monsoon rains. In summary the market was improving and seemed set for further growth in 2020. Alas, this does not now seem to be the case.

Looking ahead, Rating’s agency CRISIL has published a research paper on the topic and here are some of the highlights. They break the damage down into two separate scenarios. The first, where the social distancing measures last until the end of April, cause a 10 – 15% fall in cement demand with the pain limited to the first quarter of the Indian financial year, which starts on 1 April. The second, where distancing measures last until June, cause a 20 – 25% decrease in demand, with the problems extended into the second quarter. Salient points that it makes about the anticipated recovery include a delay in infrastructure spending due to the government diverting funds to healthcare, reduced private and real estate markets and a divide between state-led affordable housing schemes in urban and rural areas. It pins its hopes on rural housing to grab demand first, followed by key infrastructure projects, especially transport schemes.

Examining the cement producers directly, CRISIL reckons that prices will fall in the face of dropping demand but that power, fuel and freight costs are all expected to fall also. Profit margins are forecast to drop compared to the 2019 – 2020 financial year but still remain higher than the two previous ones. Finally, it looked at the credit profiles of 23 companies, representing over 70% of installed production capacity. Together they had a total debt of US$7bn. It flagged up four of these companies as having high debt/earnings ratios and five with low interest coverage. The latter were described as ‘small regional firms with weak cash balances.’

That’s one view on what may happen but two recent general industry news stories offer snapshots on what may be to come for the Indian market. The first is an immediate consequence of a nationwide lockdown in a country with a population of 1.3bn and a low cost of labour. 400 construction workers at a grinding plant build for Ramco Cements in Haridaspur, Odisha, were stranded at the site when the quarantine restrictions stopped them travelling home to Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. They took up residence at the building site and then protested when the food ran out. This point about migrant labour is noteworthy because how the Indian government relaxes the lockdown could have massive consequences upon how the construction industry recovers. A possible parallel from elsewhere in the world is the slowdown effect the Saudi Arabian cement industry suffered in late 2013 when the government took action against illegal foreign workers in the construction industry.

The second news story to keep in mind is the annual results from refractory manufacturer RHI Magnesita this week. It reported growing revenue from its cement and lime customers in 2019 but it blamed a weaker market in Europe on producers stockpiling product due to tightening magnesite and dolomite raw material availability. The takeaway here is that if supply chains supporting the cement sector and the rest of the construction industry in India at the moment are affected by the coronavirus outbreak, and government action to stop it, then there may be consequences later on. So far Global Cement hasn’t seen anything like this but the preparation for coronavirus advice from industry expert John Kilne has been to indentify and secure medium term needs, including refractory and critical spare parts and to consider potential disruption to supply chains.

In terms of what happens next once the lockdown ends in India (and other countries), one media commentator has described the response to coronavrius as the ‘hammer and the dance.’ The hammer is the economy-busting measures many governments have implemented to stop local epidemics. The dance is/are the measures that countries are using before and after an outbreak to keep it suppressed until a vaccine is developed. The worry for building material producers is how much the ‘dance’ disrupts business over the next year. All eyes will be on the East Asian producer market figures for the first quarter to see how this plays out.


Japan: Ube Machinery has made changes to its management team with effect from 1 April 2020. Hiroaki Furuya has been appointed as Managing Executive Officer. His previous role as Director & Executive Officer has been filled by Michiharu Takeda. Ube Machinery manufactures a range of products for the cement industry, including mills, kilns and dryers. Its parent company Ube also produces cement from its own plants.


Pakistan: Lucky Cement has appointed Masood Karim Shaikh as an independent director following the resignation of Mohammad Javed Iqbal at the end of March 2020. Shaikh also takes Iqbal’s position as chairman of the company’s Resource and Remuneration Committee. He will remain in post as a director for the remaining term of the board.


India: Dalmia Bharat has donated US$262,000 to the Odisha Chief Minister’s Relief Fund to help people survive the coronavirus outbreak and lockdown. United News of India has reported that Dalmia Bharat has participated in extensive humanitarian efforts during the on-going pan-Indian coronavirus lockdown, including delivering a week’s groceries to 650 families in the Odisha town of Rajgangpur and dry food packets to 900 families in districts around its Biswali, Odisha plant. The group has cooked meals for 3000 people and arranged with local administrators to feed a further 8800. Dalmia Bharat has also opened its technical centres, guest houses and schools to medical authorities for use in treating coronavirus cases. Dalmia Bharat East regional manufacturing head Sunil Gupta said, “We are totally committed to supporting the national and state governments in their fight to contain the spread of COVID-19.”


India: Shree Cement has said that it will resume production across its 37.9Mt installed capacity as soon as the government lifts its coronavirus lockdown. Shree Cement general manager Hari Bangur said, “We are technically ready to start our cement plants.” The Business Standard newspaper reported that other producers are equally determined to get back to work. JK Lakshmi Cement has said that it will require a minimum of 15 days after the end of lockdown to streamline its operations.


China: Huaxin Cement has announced a predicted profit drop of 46% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, to US$100m from US$188m in the corresponding three months of 2019. Huaxin Cement said, “During the reporting period, the company's performance declined significantly, mainly due to the impact of the coronavirus epidemic, which caused sales to fall by 36%.”


US: Green Business Certification (GBC) has recognised Titan America subsidiary Roanoke Cement’s successful implementation of its zero waste policy at the 1.5Mt/yr Troutville, Virginia plant with a Total Resource Use and Efficiency (TRUE) Gold award. In 2019 the plant won the GBC’s TRUE Silver award. Roanoke Cement environmental engineer Lindsey Layman said, “In order to elevate our TRUE Zero Waste certification, we ramped up our zero waste policy to include, for example, physical audits of waste and improving recycling practices on-site. As a result, we have created a zero-waste culture and achieved an average of 98% overall diversion from landfill and incineration of solid non-hazardous wastes.”


UK: Aggregate Industries has announced a donation of materials to the NHS for use in construction of the Louisa Jordan temporary coronavirus hospital in the Scottish Exhibition Centre (SEC) Glasgow. The hospital will host up to 1000 patients when completed in April 2020.


Nigeria: Switzerland-based LafargeHolcim subsidiary Lafarge Africa has donated three of its facilities - along with personal protective equipment (PPE) - for use to isolate and treat coronavirus patients. Lafarge Africa chief executive officer (CEO) Khaled El Dokani said, “Our intervention will relieve healthcare facilities in Lagos and in our host communities, to support those fighting COVID-19.”

In addition, Lafarge Africa stepped up its water sanitation and hygiene (WASH) initiatives in its host communities.


Poland: The Association of Cement Producers (SPC) has told the government that the cement industry generates 1.0% (Euro5.39bn) of annual gross domestic product (GDP) directly and 10% (Euro53.9bn) indirectly via construction and, as such, ought to be permitted to continue operations as a ‘necessary business’ under the terms of the country’s coronavirus lockdown. The SPC also said that the industry serves a crucial function in disposing of 11-12% (1.32 – 1.44Mt/yr) of Poland’s waste as fuel for cement production.

Poland has been on lockdown due to the coronavirus outbreak since 11 March 2020.


India: Cement manufacturers in India have seen a significant turn in fortunes since the start of 2020 due to the ongoing coronavirus outbreak. Producers, which had been raising prices and selling high volumes at the start of the year, are seeing a slump in demand in the wake of a nation-wide lockdown that began in mid-March 2020. Motilal Oswal Financial Services estimates that cement sales in March 2020 will be 40% lower than those seen in March 2019. Even after the lockdown ends, there will be severe knock-on effects for the remainder of India’s 2021 Fiscal Year (FY2021), which ends on 31 March 2021. This is expected to be due to weak economic growth, government cuts in spending on infrastructure and lower real estate demand.

Indeed, ratings agency CRISIL expects cement demand in India to contract by at least 10 - 15% in FY2021 compared to FY2020, with a ‘worst-case scenario’ of up to a 25% reduction.

The only respite that cement manufacturers may see is on the logistics side. With lower production volumes, transporters are offering more concessions on freight rates that will further help with costs, according to analysts. Low oil prices will benefit producers, while Petcoke prices may also remain relatively low.


Philippines: Holcim Philippines has suspended the operation of its manufacturing plant in Davao as the city goes on lockdown until (at least) 19 April 2020 in order to contain the ongoing coronavirus outbreak. This was due to a 4 April 2020 order by Mayor Sara Duerte that imposed enhanced community quarantine protocols. Holcim plants are now suspended in the whole of Luzon and in Davao City, prompting the company to announce that it could miss its full-year goals.

Luzon is now on the fourth week of a month-long isolation order that is formally due to end on 12 April 2020. However, government officials have already sounded the possibility that this could be extended.


Pakistan: The Pak-India Business Council (PIBC), a leading Pakistan-based organisation that advocates for stronger trade ties with India, has welcomed a relief package for the construction sector announced by Prime Minister Imran Khan. The PIBC said that the measures would be help generate business in the country, including for those taking home daily wages, who have been disproportionately affected by the coronavirus outbreak.

PIBC Chairman Noor Muhammad Kasuri said that the Khan's relief package would help provide relief to construction workers. He also welcomed an exemption of duty on construction materials, including cement, that would also help construction firms and allied businesses. Kasuri even added that the steps would open ‘new vistas of investment’ in the country after the outbreak.


Mexico: Cemex has announced that will resume operations in Mexico, just hours after announcing that it would halt all operations in the country. The turnaround was due to new government guidelines regarding essential business operations during the coronavirus outbreak.

"In accordance with the technical guidelines published today in the official Mexican gazette, the company will resume operations in Mexico to support the development and the economy of the country during the COVID-19 contingency," said Cemex in a statement on 6 April 2020. Earlier the same day it had announced that it would halt all Mexican operations until at least 30 April 2020.


Nigeria: Dangote Cement, Africa’s leading cement manufacturer, is seeking to raise up to US$260m in fresh funds from the bond market under its US$780m Debt Issuance Programme. The investor presentation document prepared by the company was themed ‘Building Prosperity in Africa.’


Mexico: Cemex has temporarily stopped production in Mexico following a government decree issue by the Health Ministry of Mexico in response to the coronavirus epidemic. The building materials company says it has maintained communication with the federal government to resume operations should the authorities decide that the construction industry should be prioritised.

“For Cemex, the health and safety of our employees, contractors, suppliers, customers and communities is a top priority,” said Fernando A Gonzalez, the chief executive officer (CEO) of Cemex. “As soon as the COVID-19 threat emerged, we activated our Rapid Response Teams to implement preventive measures in response to this unprecedented health crisis.” He added that 90% of Cemex’s customers use it Cemex Go online sales platform. The company had also identified US$200m in cost-saving initiatives for 2020 and it is evaluating the delay of certain capital expenditures that had been planned for this year, among other measures.


Vietnam: Data from the Ministry of Industry and Trade shows that clinker exports fell by nearly 40% year-on-year to 7.5Mt in the first quarter of 2020. Clinker export values dropped by 19% to US$360m in the same period, according to the Viet Nam News newspaper. Previously, the Ministry of Construction forecast that cement demand would increase by up to 5% to 103Mt in 2020 due to a recovery in the real estate market. Around a third of this was expected to be exported. Local consumption of cement and clinker grew by 2% year-on-year to 98Mt in 2019.


Pakistan: Data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) shows that local cement sales fell by 17% year-on-year to 3.2Mt in March 2020 from 3.9Mt in the same period of 2019 due to a contraction in construction activity, according to the News International newspaper. Exports rose by 5% to 0.51Mt but this is expected to fall as markets decline around the world due to the coronavirus outbreak. Both local sales and exports grew in the first two months of 2020.

The government has introduced an incentive package for the construction industry which is expected to help increase local cement consumption. The cement industry is also anticipating a reduction in federal excise duty, which it described as ‘very high’ regionally.


Argentina: Loma Negra plans to restart cement production at its plants depending on local demand. It is currently supplying public infrastructure projects from existing stocks, according to Infoeme. The subsidiary of Brazil’s InterCement stopped production following a national quarantine due to the coronavirus outbreak in late March 2020. However, the building materials producer has been included by the government on a list of essential activities so it can resume operation when it wants.


Turkey: Yibitas Yozgat has stopped clinker production for approximately three months due to ‘market conditions’ at its integrated plant near Yozgat in the Central Anatolia Region. The subsidiary of Brazil’s Votorantim said that it had enough stocks to meet current sales. It does not expect production and sales to be negatively affected by the decision.


Colombia/El Salvador/US: Mexico’s Elementia has stopped operations in El Salvador and Colombia to stop the spread of coronavirus in line with local government recommendations. It expected to resume operations in mid-April 2020. However, this may be modified based on ‘successful virus containment.’ However, it intends to continue operations in the US as the government has declared its industry as ‘essential.’ It added that it is maintaining all necessary sanitary measures to minimise transmission of the virus.


Trinidad & Tobago/Barbados: Trinidad Cement has halted most of its operations in Trinidad & Tobago and temporally halted operations at its Arawak Cement subsidiary in Barbados following government advice in each country with regards to coronavirus. It said that it had stopped ‘almost all operations’ at its Trinidad Cement integrated plant except for activities related to maintaining the kiln and the continuation of some port operations. Both lockdowns are expected to last initially until mid-April 2020. The subsidiary of Mexico’s Cemex said that it expected the global response to coronavirus would negatively affect economic growth in the Caribbean. To counter this it has delayed certain capital expenditure planned for 2020 and it is maintaining inventory at its facitlies to serve customer demand.


Italy: Italcementi’s integrated Calusco plant near Bergamo has been awarded a Responsible Sourcing Scheme (RSS) certificate for its concrete and related supply chain operations. The certification looks at the entire production process from transportation to recycling raw materials. It is the first cement plant in the Italian subsidiary of HeidelbergCement to obtain the certification.

Italcementi suspended operation at its plants in March 2020 due to the coronavirus outbreak due to government decree.


Ireland: The Irish Times newspaper has reported examples of shareholder advisory companies expressing concern about the scale of CRH chief executive officer (CEO) Alfred Manifold’s pay package in the face of mounting financial pressure due to the coronavirus pandemic. Glass Lewis has said in a report that it remains ‘particularly concerned’ about the size of Manifold’s pension benefits, while Institutional Shareholder Services has expressed similar reservations about his remuneration. Manifold had a total reported pay, performance and long term incentive package totalling Euro9.3m in 2019.

Institutional Shareholder Services previously recommended that investors vote against an executive pay rise at CRH in 2018. The multinational building materials company plans to hold its annual general meeting on 23 April 2020.

Building materials companies around the world are expected to face financial pressure as construction markets suffer due to national and regional lockdown measures in response to the coronavirus epidemic.


Austria: RHI Magnesita’s revenue from its cement and lime sector rose by 6.4% year-on-year to Euro344m in 2019 from Euro324m in 2018. It attributed the growth to selective price increases, product portfolio choices and market share gains specifically in China, the Middle East and Africa and the Commonwealth of Independent States. It said that demand for its products in Europe had been ‘slightly’ weaker in 2019 due to customer inventory build-up in 2018 as a result of tightening magnesite and dolomite raw material availability. It forecast a stable market in 2020 however it said that coronavirus was likely to affect this.

Overall, the company reported a 6.5% fall in revenue to Euro2.9bn in 2019 due to decreased revenue in its steel division. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell at a similar rate. However, coronavirus aside, chief executive officer Stefan Borgas expected the company’s Production Optimisation Plan to continue strengthening the business.


Russia: VostokCement subsidiary Teploozersky Cement has reported the successful completion of scheduled maintenance work on the rotary kiln at its 0.8Mt/yr integrated Teploozersky cement plant in Birobidzhan Oblast. Esmerk Russian News has reported that the work consisted of adjusting furnace units’ positions replacing worn sections of the lining.


Tajikistan: Tajik cement producers achieved volumes of 564,000t in January-February 2020, up by 20% from 469,000t in the first two months of 2019. This corresponds to capacity utilisation by the country’s 13 producers (total capacity 4.7Mt/yr) of 72% so far in 2020.


Bahrain: Kingdom Group subsidiary Kingdom Cement will supply cement for Orchid Building Contracting’s Spiral Orchid Residence skyscraper in Water Garden City, Al Manamah. Gulf Construction has reported that Kingdom Cement operated a terminal and packing plant where it receives cement from multiple regional producers.


Taiwan: Asia Cement Corporation has announced its collaboration with Germany-based energy company Innogy on construction of a 448MW wind power plant off Taiwan’s north-west coast near Hsinchu City. Renewables Now has reported that Asia Cement Corporation will supply cement for the project, which will see power sold to the national grid.

Innology, which has participated in the construction of offshore wind plants with a total capacity of 2500MW in Europe, opened its first Taiwan office in 2018.


Nigeria: A Dangote Cement truck overturned on the Epe Bridge in Lagos, landing on a taxi and killing six of its seven passengers. Punch Metro newspaper has reported the cause of the incident was a brake failure due to a mechanical fault with the truck. It is unknown whether the driver was operating illegally. The survivor is receiving hospital treatment.


Colombia: Workers from Cemex Colombia are using vehicles volunteered by the company to transport water and disinfectant for use in street cleaning in Maceo, Antioquia department. Esmerk Latin American News has reported that the aim of the exercise is to combat the spread of coronavirus. Cemex Colombia has also donated food, water and antibacterial gel to communities around its 2.8Mt/yr Caracolito plant near Ibagué, Tomila department.


Mexico: The National Cement Chamber (CANACEM) has suspended the activity of all member producers with cement plants in the country following the government’s national industrial shutdown in response to coronavirus. The suspension will last until 30 April 2020, during which time employees will draw their full salaries. CANACEM President Jaime Rocha Font said, "It is necessary to carry out technical, operational and administrative actions in each of the plants whose activity will be suspended in order to be able to completely stop operations in a safe and technically orderly manner.” Companies have until 10 April 2020 to complete the shutdown.

Cement dispatches to public and private works, as well as to the country’s 62,000 cement retailers, will proceed until 3 April 2020.


China: China Tianrui Group’s net 2019 profit was US$256m, up by 50% year-on-year from US$171m. Sales rose by 20% to US$1.70bn from US$1.42bn. This was due to increased volumes and prices.


Spain: Coronavirus has forced the suspension of operations at all Cementos Molins facilities, in accordance with a royal decree. Europa Press has reported that the company began the progressive shutdown of the 1.6Mt/yr integrated line at its Sant Vincenç dels Horts cement plant in Barcelona, Catalonia, on 31 March 2020, and switched off the plant on 2 April 2020.

Cementos Molins said that it has already suspended production in Argentina, Uruguay, Bolivia, Colombia and Tunisia. It says it has ‘implemented the teleworking model in the areas of the company where its application is possible.’


Ireland: UK-based Breedon Group has announced the suspension of operations at its 0.7Mt/yr integrated Kinnegad plant in County Westmeath and all other sites in Ireland. Breedon Group guaranteed 100% to pay to all Irish and UK staff to 30 April 2020.

Two non-executive directors of Breedon Group, Susie Farnon and Peter Cornell, have taken retirement.


Oman: Construction companies have reported delays to several projects resulting from a cement shortage that begun on 21 March 2020. Al-Watan newspaper has reported that most of the affected works are residential. The reason for the shortage is the suspension of cement imports from UAE from mid-March 2020.