Consolidation of the Chinese cement industry looks set to take a major step forward this week. China National Building Material Company (CNBM) announced that it is restructuring its cement production assets and companies under one subsidiary, Tianshan Cement. The move is significant since CNBM is the world’s largest cement producer, with a production capacity of over 500Mt/yr. That’s more than the total output of any single country except China. It’s also between a quarter and a third of national capacity domestically.

Little information has been revealed except that it concerns most of CNBM’s cement producing subsidiaries. Namely: China United Cement, South Cement, North Cement, Southwest Cement and Sinoma Cement. Note that this leaves out Ningxia Building Materials and Qilianshan Holdings, although some commentators have suggested that they may be merged in later on. It was announced to stock markets as a proposal with a ‘letter of intent of cooperation’ exchanged between CNBM and Tianshan Cement. CNBM will remain the controlling shareholder of Tianshan Cement after the restructuring. However, the assets concerned - the cement companies are still being discussed and considered. The aim of the reorganisation is to ‘facilitate resolving industry competition’ among the subsidiaries of CNBM.

The move is expected to significantly increase operational efficiency at the cement companies as they start to act in a more coordinated manner. It also fits the government-requested drive for the industry as a whole to consolidate and follow supply-side reform initiatives by, hopefully, eliminating old production assets and other measures. Indeed as CNBM’s president Peng Shou said in the company’s report for 2019, “Production overcapacity of the industry has not been fundamentally resolved. The task of cutting production overcapacity was arduous, and the supply-side structural reform remains the major task.” The company says it is committed to building a three-pillar development platform of cement, new materials and engineering services.

How much more operational efficiency the world’s largest cement producer will need to do this is a key question. In 2019 the sales revenue from its cement business rose by 12% year-on-year to US$18.7bn and its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) increased by 19% to US$5bn. Growth at this level is novel to western-based multinational cement producers! So the implication might be that CNBM is hoping to turbo-charge its financial performance before (or if) the serious government-forced supply side cuts occur or a general economic slowdown happens so that it can return to ‘normal’ Chinese performance afterwards.

The Chinese Cement Association presented a good overview of the history of CNBM that you can read here. The quick version is that it’s the embodiment of the Chinese government’s desire to build and merge its cement industry since 2005. The latest restructuring with Tianshan Cement is the latest chapter in this 15 year story. What the reorganisation means internationally is ‘probably not much’ in the short term. Better coordination between CNBM’s cement companies could have implications in the longer term if they acted together on an international strategy, such as a strategy on exports for example, or if group-wide suppliers were agreed upon.

That’s all on China but finally if readers were not able to join us for Global Cement Live last week on 23 July 2020, we recommend watching the playback of Arif Bashir, Director (Technical/Operations) of DG Khan Cement Nishat Group Pakistan. He gave a great overview of Pakistan’s cement industry and the challenges it is facing and overcoming. Be sure to tune in for this week’s guest speaker, Regina Krammer from Loesche who will be discussing how the coronavirus crisis will change communications in the sector.

To register for Global Cement Live visit: www.globalcement.com/live

Data is starting to emerge from South American countries for the first half of 2020 and it’s not necessarily what one might expect. Countries had different trends in play before the coronavirus pandemic established itself and then governments acted in their own ways with mixed results. Here’s a brief summary of the situation in the key territories.

Graph 1: Cement sales in selected South American countries in first half of year, 2018 – 2020. Source: Local cement associations and national statistics offices. Note: Colombian data is for January – May for each year.

Brazil’s cement sector looked set to become the big loser as global events seemed poised to dent the recovery of cement sales since a low in 2018. This didn’t happen. The Brazilian national cement industry union’s (SNIC) preliminary data for the first six months of 2020 shows that sales grew by 3.7% year-on-year to 26.9Mt. This is above the growth rate of 3% originally expected. Indeed, the monthly year-on-year growth rate in June 2020 was 24.5%. SNIC is not wrong in describing this kind of pace as being ‘Chinese.’ All this growth has been attributed to the home improvement market as people used their lockdown time to renovate their homes, renovations and maintenance in commercial buildings during lockdown and growing work on real estate projects. The government’s decision to implement weak lockdown measures clearly helped the sector but this may have cost lives in the process.

SNIC’s president Paulo Camillo Penna pointed out that producing and selling cement could co-exist with fighting coronavirus. However, trends such as a slowing real estate sector, less large construction projects and mounting input costs are all seen as potential risks in the second half of 2020. What SNIC didn’t link to the wider fortunes of the local cement industry was the economic consequences of coronavirus. The World Bank, for example, has forecast an 8% fall in gross domestic product in Brazil in 2020 due to its coronavirus, “mitigation measures, plunging investment and soft global commodity prices.”

Peru, in contrast to Brazil, implemented a strong lockdown early in March 2020. Unfortunately, it didn’t seem to work as well as hoped possibly due to informal and structural issues such as reliance on markets, the informal economy and residential overcrowding. This means that production and sales of cement are significantly down without any public health benefit. Both production and despatches fell by about 40% to around 2.9Mt in the first half of 2020 with close to total stoppages in April 2020. In terms of coronavirus, Peru is at the time of writing in the top 10 worldwide for both total cases and deaths, behind only Brazil in South America. It should be pointed out though that Peru’s testing rate is reportedly high for the region and this may be making its response look dire in the short term. All of this is particularly sad from an industrial perspective given that Peru was one of the continent’s strongest performers prior to 2020. One consolation though is that the economy is expected to recover more quickly compared to its neighbours.

Argentina started 2020 with a downward trend in its local market. Cement sales had been falling since 2017, roughly following a recession in the wider economy. Throw in a strong lockdown and sales more than halved at its peak in April 2020. So far this has led to a drop of 31% to 3.83Mt for the first half of 2020 compared to 5.51Mt in the same period in 2019. Unfortunately, a recent spike in cases in Buenos Aires has led to renewed lockdowns in the capital. Due to this unwelcome development and the general economic situation Fitch Ratings has forecast an overall decline in cement sales volumes of 25% for 2020 as a whole.

Finally, Colombia’s cement production fell by 24% year-on-year to 3.90Mt in the first five months of 2020 from 5.14Mt in the same period in 2019. April 2020 was the worst month affected. The country’s lockdown ended on 13 April 2020 for infrastructure projects and on 27 April 2020 for cement production and residential and commercial construction. On 5 May 2020 Cementos Argos said that domestic demand was at 50% of pre-lockdown levels. Data from DANE, the Colombian statistics authority, shows that local sales fell by around a third year-on-year to 0.71Mt in May 2020 from 1.06Mt in May 2019.

Most of the countries examined above follow the pattern of reduced cement production and sales in relation to the severity of the lockdown imposed and the resulting intensity of the coronavirus outbreak. Stronger lockdowns suppressed cement production and sales in the region of 20 – 40% in the first half of the year as governments shut down totally and then released industry and commerce incrementally. The exception is Peru, which has suffered the worst of both worlds: a severe lockdown and a severe health crisis. Local trends have continued around this, like the recovery in Brazil in the construction industry and the general recession in Argentina.

SNIC’s president has said that making and selling cement needn’t be exclusive with public health measures. He’s right but Brazil’s surging case load is an outlier compared with most of its continental neighbours and the rest of the world. Cement sectors in countries with growing economies like Peru and Colombia are expected to bounce back quicker than those with stagnant ones like Argentina. The risk for Brazil is what its government health strategy will do to the construction sector in the second half of 2020.

Rwanda’s newest cement grinding plant is set to start commissioning at a great time. Last week Milbridge Group subsidiary Prime Cement said that its 0.6Mt/yr grinding plant in Musanze, Northern Province was preparing to start up in August 2020. This week the main local producer, Cimerwa, announced that it was setting standardised cement prices in an attempt to control speculation in the market following a shortage. According to local press, spikes in prices have been caused by an urgent supply tender from the Ministry of Education, which has started a large-scale project to build over 20,000 classrooms. Prime Cement is unlikely to make a difference to this particular shortage but its timing is spot on.

Graph 1: Cement production capacity/population of East African countries. Source: Global Cement Magazine & Global Cement Directory 2020.

Cement price surges in land-locked African countries crying out for construction materials are not new but it’s always illuminating to review how the situation is changing. Rwanda’s sole 0.6Mt/yr integrated plant is run by Cimerwa, a subsidiary of South Africa-based PPC, near Bugarama in the south-west of the country, close to the borders with Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Burundi. The new grinding plant is located in the north-west near the borders with DRC and Uganda. It will join another grinding plant run by Kenya’s ARM Cement at Kigali.

PPC’s operation in Rwanda has performed well in comparison to a poor market back home in South Africa. For its financial half year to September 2019 Cimerwa reported revenue growth of 28% year-on-year to US$31.2m due to a 20% increase in sales volumes. Earnings rose even more in percentage terms due to higher volumes and an improved cost per tonne performance, likely due to a debottlenecking project. More recently, PPC said that its operations in Rwanda were disrupted in April 2020 due to a coronavirus lockdown that started in late March 2020. It partially resumed operations in the second half of April 2020 with cement sales volumes for the month expected to be 15 - 20% of those in April 2019. The other point of note is that the Rwandan government was trying to sell its minority share in Cimerwa in mid-2019 but nothing has been publicly announced since then. However, Cimerwa was reported as being in the process of listing on the Rwanda Stock Exchange in May 2020.

Rwanda’s other grinding plant at Kigali has had problems with its parent company in Kenya. ARM Cement went into administration in mid-2018 and its assets have gradually been sold off since then amidst legal wrangling. It has also had ongoing operational issues with interrupted production due to clinker and coal shortages caused by import issues with Tanzania. An attempt to sell the 0.1Mt/yr grinding plant in September 2018 failed when an auction didn’t even reach one tenth of the estimated market value of US$1.4m. The plant was still reportedly on sale in May 2020.

The new Prime Cement grinding plant will have a production capacity of 0.6Mt/yr. It has been supplied by Germany-based Loesche, who installed a Loesche Jumbo CCG (Compact Cement Grinding plant) with mill type LM 30.2. The project has been reported to have a cost of around US$65m. A second phase was also mentioned at the time of the initial announcement that might include upgrading the grinding plant to a fully-integrated one at a later stage. Time will tell. In the meantime though it will be interesting to see whether the new plant has the same raw material issues that ARM’s Kigali Cement has had. One potential source of clinker is the integrated Hima Cement at Kasese in Uganda. Bamburi Cement reported in May 2020 that its Hima Cement subsidiary in Uganda was unable to ‘access’ the market in Rwanda in 2019 due to ongoing trade problems across the Rwanda-Uganda border.

Rwanda’s cement consumption has been reported to be 0.7Mt/yr so a new combined national production capacity of 1.4Mt/yr seems likely to create significant exports. Other countries in the region have also noticed what’s going on in Rwanda and want to do likewise. In June 2020 DRC’s Industry Minister Julien Paluku talked up plans of reviving the 0.3Mt/yr state-owned National Cement Plant (CINAT) in Kimpese. He noted that DRC has been partly reliant on cement produced by Cimerwa in Rwanda, which has been serving a combined demand of 900,000t/yr in DRC and Burundi.

A statistic that received a fresh airing this week was one from the World Bank in 2016 that worked out that the price of cement in Africa was on average 183% higher than the global average. It popped up in a news article about the expanding Nigerian cement industry but it applies to the whole continent. While it continues to hold true, exports will boom and plants will keep being built in the places that exports can’t reach.

Hydrogen and its use in cement production has been adding a dash of colour to the industry news in recent weeks. Last week, Lafarge Zementwerke, OMV, Verbund and Borealis signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to plan and build a full-scale unit at a cement plant in Austria to capture CO₂ and process it with hydrogen into synthetic fuels, plastics or other chemicals. This week, Air Products and ThyssenKrupp Uhde Chlorine Engineers (TUCE) signed a strategic agreement to work together in ‘key regions’ to develop projects supplying green hydrogen. Both of these developments follow the awarding of UK government funding in February 2020 to support a pilot project into studying a mix of hydrogen and biomass fuels at Hanson Cement’s Ribblesdale integrated plant.

As the title of this column suggests there is an environmental colour code to describe how hydrogen is made for industrial use. This is a bit more codified than when grey cement gets called ‘green’ but it pays to remember what the energy source is. So-called ‘green’ hydrogen is produced by the electrolysis of water using renewable energy sources such as hydroelectric or solar, ‘Grey’ hydrogen is made from steam reforming using fossil fuels and ‘Blue’ hydrogen is similar to grey but has the CO₂ emissions from the fuels captured and stored/utilised. Price is seen as the main obstacle to wider uptake of hydrogen usage as a fuel in industry although this is changing as CO₂ pricing mounts in some jurisdictions and the connected supply chain is developed. A study by BloombergNEF from March 2020 forecasted that green hydrogen prices could become cheaper than natural gas by 2050 in Brazil, China, India, Germany and Scandinavia but it conceded that many barriers would have to be overcome to get there. For example, hydrogen has to be manufactured making it more expensive than fossil fuels without government policy support and its, “lower energy density also makes it more expensive to handle.”

The three recent examples with respect to the cement industry are interesting because they are all exploring different directions. The Lafarge partnership in Austria wants to use hydrogen to aid the utilisation side of its carbon capture at a cement plant. The industrial suppliers, meanwhile, are positioning themselves in the equipment space for the technology required to use hydrogen on industrial plants. Secondly, ThyssenKrupp has alkaline water electrolysis technology that it says it has used at over 600 projects and electrochemical plants worldwide. Air Products works with industrial gas production, storage and handling.

Finally, the Hanson project in the UK will actually look at using hydrogen as a partial replacement for natural gas in the kiln combustion system. A Cembureau position paper in mid-2019 identified that the challenges to explore in using hydrogen in cement production included seeing how its use might affect the physical aspects of the kiln system, the fuel mass flows, temperature profile, heat transfer and the safety considerations for the plant. Later that year a feasibility study by the Mineral Products Association (MPA), Verein Deutscher Zementwerke (VDZ) and Cinar for the UK government department that is funding the Hanson project concluded that a hydrogen flame’s high heat in a burner alone might not make it suitable for clinker formation. However, the study did think that it could be used with biomass to address some of that alternative fuel’s “calorific limitations” at high levels. Hence the demonstration of a mixture of both hydrogen and biomass.

That’s all on hydrogen but, finally, if you didn’t log into yesterday’s Virtual Global CemProducer 2 Conference you missed a treat. One highlight was consultant John Kline’s presentation on using drones to inspect refractory in some hard to reach places. Flying a camera straight into a (cool) pyro-processing line was reminiscent of a science fiction film! Global Cement has encountered the deployment of unmanned aerial vehicles in quarry and stockpile surveys previously but this was a step beyond.

The proceedings pack - including video, presenter slides and delegate list - for the Virtual Global CemProducer 2 Conference 2020 is available to buy now