Indonesia: It seems that not a week goes past without a forecast, announcement or other report about the continued boom in the Indonesian cement industry. Similarly, there is a steady stream of expansion announcements to accommodate the future demand. In light of another round of impressive cement statistics, what's the story for Indonesia in 2012 and beyond?

In the three months to 31 March 2012 Indonesia produced 12.5Mt of cement, an 18% rise on the first quarter of 2011. In the whole of that year, the cement industry turned out a massive 17% more cement than in 2010. These headline increases are certainly impressive and show that if the first quarter of 2012 was repeated three more times throughout the rest of the year, Indonesia would hit its 53Mt production forecast. This is more than double the cement production of 1998 (22Mt/yr in the midst of the Asian banking crisis) and, while from a low base, the values represent incredible sustained year-on-year demand growth.

But what is the potential of the Indonesian cement industry? This can be assessed by looking one of Indonesia's neighbours, namely Malaysia, and doing a quick thought-experiment. What would the Indonesian cement industry look like if the country were to suddenly develop demands and cement consumption patterns like Malaysia does today? Indonesia has a population 8.3 times higher than Malaysia¹ and a cement consumption/capita rate approximately 2.4 times lower.² Assuming current Indonesian cement consumption to be 50Mt, if all of the people in Indonesia were to suddenly start using cement like Malaysia does today, the country's cement industry would have to be nearly 1000Mt/yr to support demand!

While this is clearly not the case today and is unlikely to be fully realised, Indonesia will continue to develop economically. As it does, the world's fourth most populous nation will need more cement. How much is open to debate, but even if a small percentage of that hypothetical 1000Mt can be realised, it will certainly justify the current rush to add extra capacity. This is now especially likely in light of the December 2011 relaxation of land acquisition rules, which will make it easier to build both cement projects and the large construction projects that need cement.

Click here for much more on the cement industries of Indonesia and Malaysia (as well as Vietnam) from the April 2012 issue of Global Cement Magazine.

1. CIA World Factbook website, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook.

2. Cement consumption per capita data for Malaysia taken from Lafarge 2010 Annual Report. (http://www.lafarge.com/04112011-customers_activities-cement_market_2010-uk.pdf). Malaysia is a representative comparison for Indonesia based on its GDP to cement consumption ratio.

Friday saw the news that many have long suspected: China is producing too much cement. Liu Ming, an official with the department of industry within the National Development and Reform Commission, announced that China faces national overcapacity in the next five years.

For anyone used to reading the permanently good news from China's cement industry this is a massive jolt. The natural reaction to dealing with industrial news from a command-style economy is to assume that everything is 'airbrushed'. This then demands the question: how much trouble is the Chinese cement industry really in?

Despite persistent rumours querying how long China's unparallelled growth could last, official responses have only appeared in the last two months. First the environment ministry announced stricter rules regarding nitrogen oxide emissions from cement plants in February 2012. Commentators suggested that the move could wipe out a third of the industry's profits. Shortly afterwards FLSmidth, entered the Chinese environmental control technology market.

In early March 2012 Premier Wen Jiabao lowered China's growth target for 2012, signalling public political acceptance of an inevitable economic 'soft landing'. Then in late March 2012 analysts' reports emerged predicting that each of China's main producers would suffer weakened profits in 2012. Only CNBM, China's biggest producer, appears to have bucked this trend. It announced that it expected its net profit to jump more than 100% compared to 2011. However the general uncertainty regarding statistics from China throws doubt on how realistic this forecast may be.

Yet before we give up hope it's worth remembering that opportunity abounds in a market as gargantuan as China. The rest of 2012 will be an interesting period for the Chinese cement industry.

Camargo Corrêa's ongoing bid for Cimpor must be creating nightmares for Brazil's anti-cartel authorities.

If the takeover goes through, Camargo Corrêa's Brazilian market share will rise from 24% to 37% according to data from the Global Cement Directory 2012. Together with industrial conglomerate Grupo Votorantim, who already own 21% of Cimpor, this share would amount to 72% of the country's total cement capacity.

As covered in this week's Global Cement Weekly #44 Jose Barros Franco, chief executive of Intercement a subsidiary of Camargo Corrêa, has explicitly denied that Camargo had a pre-agreement with Votorantim to split up Cimpor assets. However, he did not rule out a deal in the future to jointly manage the company. This implies that companies representing nearly three-quarters of the Brazilian cement market might be working together to at least some degree!

In October 2011 Camargo Corrêa denied that it was in talks to buyout Cimpor. According to one source at that time, Camargo Corrêa planned to take over Cimpor's operations in Brazil while Votorantim was considering taking assets outside of Brazil. Currently analysts expect the same thing to happen now if the takeover goes through, especially given any possible anti-competitive attention in Brazil.

With operations in four continents Portugal's Cimpor holds 77% of its global capacity outside of Brazil. If the takeover does actually happen, then the key question is this: how much of Cimpor's international operation does Votorantim want in return for helping its competitor Camargo Corrêa to grow back at home in Brazil?

It's official: the big boys are heading to India this week.

First Lafarge head Bruno Lafont announced broad expansion plans in the subcontinent. Then a Holcim presentation emerged from earlier in 2012 projecting that the company expects India's overall construction market to take the global third position after China and the US by 2020.

With the Indian construction share set to rise from US$360bn in 2010 to US$840bn in 2020 that's one massive market share up for grabs. Throw in some interpretation from India's 2011 census and the signs are that its population could overtake China's by 2030. Sounds like an absolutely perfect opportunity for your average embattled European cement corporation!

Except that there's no such thing as a sure bet. As we covered previously, Indian cement consumption fell for the first time in 20 years in August 2011. The cause was put down to political problems holding up infrastructure in key states. In March 2012 we've had two stories that have impacted upon the local industry. First the Railway Board of India hiked the freight rates by 24%. Then the Union Budget for 2012-13 increased the excise and service tax. Clearly everybody wants a piece of the 'inevitable' bonanza. If anything impedes India's growth in the next decade there may be bargains going for cement on the export market.

Elsewhere this week we have stories on the potential cost of a proposed air pollution ruling upon two plants in the US state of Montana, more information on a revival in the Gulf Cooperation Council region and more capacity growth in Indonesia.