Ukraine: Ukrainian cement and concrete producers are ready to expand capacity to meet reconstruction demand, according to a survey by Consumer and Business Research Ukraine (CBR), despite reduced funding and limited state budget. Cement production dropped to 5.4Mt in 2022 from 11Mt in 2021 but stabilised at 7.4Mt in 2023 and 7.97Mt in 2024. CBR estimates that 8Mt/yr is feasible during wartime, rising to 12Mt/yr in the third or fourth year of reconstruction.
The Ukrainian Cement Association (UkrCement) head Pavlo Kachur said “Reconstruction will begin with demining, reinforcing the front lines and restoring energy infrastructure. Large-scale construction will likely not begin until the third or fourth year.”
At present, plant capacity utilisation varies across regions. Plants in western Ukraine are operating at higher capacity, while those in the south and east remain underutilised. In 2022, plants operated at a loss but retained staff. In 2023, volumes were sufficient to break even. Two-thirds of surveyed consumers increased production in 2023, though 2024 expectations were cautious.
Kachur said “Time will be needed for training, planning and securing financing—and cement producers will use that time to fill the market, primarily by investing in modernisation and capacity expansion. For example, two major projects to build new kilns are already ready in Kryvy Rih and Ivano-Frankivsk.”
The study notes that building brand new plants is unlikely, but modernising existing kilns can be accomplished within a year. It expects at least two plants to launch new kilns, increasing capacity by 2Mt/yr. For example, Kryvyi Rih Cement has obtained a permit to develop the Maryanske limestone deposit (60km from the plant) and plans to build a clinker kiln at the site.
CBR researcher Tetiana Sytnyk said “Cement companies are ready to make rapid investments in modernisation and to launch additional kilns once recovery begins. They’re waiting for clear signals to proceed – such as the allocation of reconstruction funds or a surge in demand to at least 9.5Mt/yr.”
Ukraine exported 1.7Mt of cement in 2024, up from 56,000t in 2021, with Kachur adding that exports have ‘saved’ the local industry during the war. Developed countries will be capable of meeting Ukraine’s reconstruction needs, though this could hurt local producers. Kachur added “During the recovery phase, Ukraine’s market must be as localised as possible with domestic products. Only countries that supported us during the war should have access.”
