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What will the next Trump presidency mean for the cement sector?

13 November 2024

On 6 November 2024, Donald Trump appeared before followers in Florida, US, to declare victory in the 47th US presidential election. A sea of red baseball caps reflected the promise of the former president, now once again president-elect, to Make America Great Again. What Trump’s triumph means for the cement industry is not so straightforward. One lesson of President Trump’s 2017 – 2021 tenure as 45th president is that a Trump presidency comes with winners and losers.

Alongside the international heads of state posting their congratulations to Trump via social media was the Portland Cement Association (PCA), which represents US cement producers. In a post to LinkedIn, it took the chance to set out its priorities for the upcoming presidency, set to commence on 20 January 2025. These include collaborating on ‘market‐based initiatives’ to further reduce US cement’s CO2 emissions, addressing ‘regulatory burdens’ that currently hinder the uptake of alternative fuels (AF) and ensuring favourable policies and funding for the use of alternative cements under federal transport programmes, which are up for renewal in 2026, as well as collaborating on carbon capture, utilisation and storage.

The post was suitably diplomatic for an organisation that will have to work with the incoming administration for the next four years. Reading the policy priorities against some of Trump’s campaign promises, however, they may be more pointed. As part of his plan to stimulate economic growth, Trump has proposed an unspecified reduction of the ‘regulatory burden’ of environmental standards. He also purports to want to replace renewables with increased use of fossil fuels – in direct opposition to the PCA’s goal to slash the US cement industry’s coal and petcoke reliance from 60% to 10% by 2050. The PCA’s stance is not merely ideological: its roadmap is founded on the legally-binding Paris Agreement on climate change mitigation. Trump, who considers the Paris Agreement a ‘disaster,’ has the stated aim of withdrawing the US from the treaty – for a second time!

The PCA included a positive note that “We can all agree that the ultimate goal of our industry and the government is to best serve the American people.” In case there were any doubt as to what it feels best serves those people, it concluded that it will work with all federal officials to help communities in the US to build ‘a more resilient, sustainable’ country.

Producers themselves, in the US and many other markets, had been finalising first-half or nine-month financial results when the Trump news broke. Now came half-anticipated strategy discussions – and a surprise: in market after market, trading in cement stocks opened on the up. Ireland-based CRH’s share price spiked by 15%, before settling on a rise of 6% day-on-day. Mexico-based Cemex’s rose by 7% and Switzerland-based Holcim’s by 5%. Investors, clearly, glimpsed opportunity in uncertainty for these US-involved operators.

Trump’s campaign successfully positioned him as the disruptive outsider, despite being the known (or, at least, known-to-be-unpredictable) quantity of the two candidates. His promise to Americans was increased affordability; to corporations, deregulation. Either way, he stands to overhaul the past four years’ policy on the economy. All of this may keep Wall Street high-ballers placing their bets on Cemex or CRH, or on Holcim North America after it eventually joins them on the New York Stock Exchange. The prospect of more money in homebuyers’ pockets is attractive, especially to allied sectors like property development, where Trump himself worked for over 40 years. The cement industry, meanwhile, will be taking a hard look at what the Trump proposition might mean for its market.

US Geological Survey (USGS) data tracks a favourable market trend under the present Biden Administration – to date – for a US cement industry that has also grown in production terms. Consumption was 120Mt in 2023, up by 14% over the three-year-period from 2020, while production was 91Mt, up by 4% over the same period. President Biden has signed into law two major pieces of legislation – the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act – with a combined value of US$1.94tn in additional public spending, to President Trump’s none. However, the Republican president previously proposed investing an additional US$200bn in 2018.

Trump voters may have perused the USGS’ most recent monthly cement figures, for July 2024, before casting their votes. The figures recorded a 5.2% year-on-year decline in total cement shipments in the year-to-date, to 58.6Mt. Both Eagle Materials and Italy-based Buzzi noted a recent lack of growth in US sales volumes in their latest financial results. Another possibly alarming trend for the industry – and anyone with a protectionist mindset - is the growth of imports, which rose from 14.8Mt in 2019 to 26Mt in 2023.

A defining feature of Trump’s original presidency, alongside Covid-19 lockdown, was his still-ongoing trade wars. We can expect Trump to resume his roll-out of new tariffs as soon as he can. This might include cement plant equipment produced in other jurisdictions, such as the EU. Compared to the roster of goods he previously denied entry to the US, however, 26Mt/yr of cement will be less easy to wrangle with in a country with a domestic shortfall of 29Mt/yr.

Whatever happens in politics, the US cement sector remains very strong, with historied local ownership and some of the most innovative plants in the industry globally. Global players continue to seek to maximise their US-facing presence, as evidenced by Brazil-based Votorantim Cimentos’ contemplation of an initial public offering (IPO) for Votorantim Cimentos North America, announced on 7 November 2024. For the industry, the day-to-day grind – and pyroprocess – goes on.

After all, Trump did not enact many of his more disruptive proposals, such as building a Mexican border wall, after his win in 2016. See Global Cement’s analysis of that proposal here. But even this record is an unreliable guide for what to expect in 2025 – 2029. Not only did Trump himself win the popular mandate this time around, but his allies also gained majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate, comprising the US legislature. This betokens a different pace and scale of possible changes.

In 10 weeks’ time, the US cement sector will be lobbying an entirely new regime. Now is the time for it to prepare whatever arguments will appeal to incoming lawmakers to allow it make the best of such opportunities as may be available.

Published in Analysis
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Cemex reports 2024 third-quarter financial results

29 October 2024

Mexico: Cemex recorded an earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of US$747m in the third quarter of 2024, down by 9% year-on-year, with net sales falling by 3% to US$4.09bn. This period was influenced by adverse weather and foreign exchange movements, according to the company. Net income for the quarter more than tripled year-on-year to reach US$406m.

Compared to the corresponding period in 2023, sales in Mexico fell by 5% to US$1.14bn, while sales in the US decreased by 4% to US$1.34bn. In South and Central America and the Caribbean, sales declined by 1% to US$311m. Conversely, sales in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region rose by 1% to US$1.24bn.

Published in Global Cement News
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Cemex and Linde to receive EU funding for CCUS project at Rüdersdorf cement plant

23 October 2024

Germany: A consortium comprising Cemex and engineering company Linde has won €157m from the EU Innovation Fund for a carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) initiative at the Rüdersdorf cement plant. The project will capture 1.3Mt/yr of CO₂ from the plant’s production processes, aiming for complete decarbonisation of the site by 2030, aligning with Cemex's Future in Action climate strategy. The Rüdersdorf facility will use Linde's HISORP(R) technology for CO₂ capture, featuring a cryogenic-adsorptive process that captures CO₂ from exhaust gas at the source, ready for compression, liquification and eventual permanent sequestration at an offshore storage site in the North Sea.

Sergio Menéndez, president of Cemex Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia, said "Our Future in Action climate action strategy is working hard to drive several revolutionary CCUS projects across our global operations. While we are working hard to decarbonise using existing technology, an important component of our Future in Action strategy is to develop breakthrough decarbonisation solutions for our industry to reach Net Zero. The Rüdersdorf project is Cemex's largest CCUS project to date, with all the hallmarks and credentials to make a significant contribution to the decarbonisation of the cement industry."

Published in Global Cement News
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Update on Egypt, October 2024

02 October 2024

Energy has been the theme for a couple of cement news stories of note from Egypt this week. The first concerns the government’s impending plan to centralise distribution of mazut (heavy fuel oil) to cement plants to help them cope with ongoing power shortages. Earlier in the week Cemex signed a deal with the Assiut Governorate to operate a second municipal solid refuse processing unit in the country. The company’s first Regenera facility, in Mahala, started operations in May 2024. Another story from mid-September 2024, along the same theme, covered the inauguration of an 18MW waste heat recovery (WHR) unit at Heidelberg Materials Egypt's Helwan Cement plant.

The wider story is that the country has faced so-called load shedding, or power rationing, since mid-2023 due to falling gas production, rising energy demand and negative currency exchange effects making it harder to buy fuel imports. The power cuts were extended in duration in July 2024 due to a heat wave. The government then said in late September 2024 that it is making investments to prevent domestic power cuts in 2025.

The cement stories mentioned above show some of the ways cement companies cut their energy costs. Two potential ways of doing this are to increase the use of alternative fuels (AF), such as municipal solid waste, or to install a WHR unit. Titan Cement, for example, reported AF thermal substitution rates of above 40% in Alexandria and above 30% in Beni Suef in the first half of 2024. The local press hasn’t reported power shortages amongst the country’s cement producers, but the plans to control the distribution of mazut suggest that either ‘something’ has happened or the government is trying to avoid ‘something.’ Readers may recall that producers have periodically faced step changes in power supplies over the years. In the mid-2010s, for example, lots of plants switched from heavy fuel oil and gas to coal. The energy price fluctuations following the start of the Russia - Ukraine war in 2022 then saw the price of coal rise.

However, what the foreign-owned producers have complained about in the first half of 2024 is the declining exchange rate of the Egyptian Pound. Cementir, Cemex and Titan Cement all noted this. However, Titan reckoned that International Monetary Fund and European Union investment had actually eased the economic situation in the first half of the year leading to an increase in the number of large construction projects.

One effect of the currency problems upon the cement market has been a focus on exports. At the start of September 2024 the Federation of Egyptian Industries said that national cement consumption in 2024 was expected to drop by 4% year-on-year to 45Mt. However, exports were projected to rise to 15Mt. The first and second most popular destinations so far in 2024 have been the Ivory Coast and Ghana. Yet, exports to Libya, the third biggest external market, may have had the biggest effect. These have been blamed for creating a shortage of trucks that was causing delays to the local construction sector. The round-journey from Egypt to Libya can take up to 12 days. This has left building sites bereft of raw material deliveries because all the trucks are elsewhere! Vicat acknowledged the growing importance of imports for its business in Egypt in its half-year report for 2024. It said that ‘sluggish’ domestic market conditions “were more than offset by growth in cement and clinker volumes for export to the Mediterranean and Africa regions.”

The wider picture of the cement sector in Egypt remains one of overcapacity with integrated capacity estimated above 70Mt/yr. The government introduced cement production quotas in mid-2021 and this stabilised prices (and profits). The recent state of the local economy may have strained this, but the latest round of external investment appears to have buoyed things for now. Although the effects of the Israeli military action in Lebanon may have unforeseen consequences upon neighbouring markets. In the meantime, cutting energy costs and growing exports offer two ways for producers to raise their profits.

Published in Analysis
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Cemex to operate second Regenera facility in Egypt

27 September 2024

Egypt: Cemex has signed an agreement with Assiut Governorate to operate its second Regenera facility in Egypt. This facility processes about 7,000t/month of municipal solid refuse, treating it to generate alternative fuels before compost production, thereby ensuring minimal residual materials go to landfill. The Assiut agreement follows the first Regenera facility in Mahala, which began operations in May 2024. Cemex has invested over US$2.5m in an alternative fuel dryer at the Assiut plant.

Published in Global Cement News
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Cemex recognised on Fortune's Change the World list

26 September 2024

Egypt: Cemex has won a place on Fortune's 2024 Change the World list for its sustainable business practices. This recognition, the fourth for Cemex, highlights its collaboration with VeryNile to clean the Nile River and develop sustainable solutions for discarded materials. Supported by the Ministry of the Environment, VeryNile focuses on removing inorganic matter from the Nile, upcycling plastics, and converting non-recyclable materials into alternative fuel for Cemex's Assiut cement plant. This initiative not only reduces pollution but also improves water quality for the local community and provides alternative employment for 150 local fishermen and women affected by contamination of the Nile.

CEO of Cemex Fernando González said "We are once again honoured by Fortune's recognition of our sustainable business model, which aligns environmental conservation with social empowerment. The VeryNile initiative exemplifies how companies can collaborate with NGOs and society to change the world for the better."

Published in Global Cement News
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Cemex launches new damp-proof cement

18 September 2024

Mexico: Cemex has launched a new water-repellent cement under its Vertua brand, which is designed to extend the lifespan of construction projects by addressing humidity issues. The product reportedly does not require dosing and mixes like traditional grey cement. It was introduced on 12 September 2024 at the Construrama Convention in Mexico.

President of Cemex Mexico, Ricardo Naya, said “At Cemex, we have developed a new specialty cement designed to solve one of the main problems that affects almost every construction site: dampness. Our damp-proof cement is a true ‘all-in-one’. In addition to its traditional use, it incorporates water-repellent properties that not only protect structures, but also provide a smoother, more uniform finish.”

Published in Global Cement News
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Cemex sells operations in Guatemala to Holcim

11 September 2024

Guatemala: Cemex has sold its operations in Guatemala to Holcim Group for US$200m. The deal includes one grinding mill, three ready-mix plants and five distribution centres. The grinding mill has a capacity of 0.6Mt/yr.

CEO of Cemex Fernando González said "In 2024, we have accelerated the execution of our portfolio rebalancing strategy with the announced sale of more than US$2bn in assets located primarily in emerging markets. We are now primed for the next stage by redeploying most of the divestment proceeds in developed markets, primarily the US. We expect these efforts to drive sustainable growth for our business in the short and medium term."

Published in Global Cement News
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Cemex acquires majority stake in RC-Baustoffe

04 September 2024

Germany: Cemex has acquired a majority stake in the Berlin-based recycling company RC-Baustoffe to enhance its circularity business Regenera. The company processes construction, demolition and excavation materials. The acquisition integrates RC-Baustoffe with Regenera, allowing the facility to process up to 400,000t/yr, which will be turned into repurposed aggregates for concrete production.

CEO of Cemex, Fernando González, said “With acquisitions such as this, Cemex continues to strengthen its commitment to circularity through Regenera as well as promoting the world’s transition to a more circular economy. Construction and demolition materials account for more than 30% of global ‘waste’ streams and reintegrating these materials into the construction value chain can reduce the use of virgin raw materials."

Published in Global Cement News
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Cemex Colombia uses 90% non-fresh water at Santa Rosa grinding plant

30 August 2024

Colombia: Cemex Colombia has reported that 90% of the water used at its Santa Rosa grinding plant in 2024 to date came from non-fresh water sources, including rainwater harvesting and water recycling systems. Additionally, the plant operates with zero water discharges. UK-based Environmental Resources Management (ERM) supported the development of the current water management protocol for the plant.

Published in Global Cement News
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