Displaying items by tag: China Cement Association
Global Cement and Concrete Association and China Cement Association to collaborate for cement decarbonisation
01 February 2024World: The Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA) has signed a new agreement with the China Cement Association (CCA). The agreement constitutes an historic ‘partnership pledge’ to accelerate cement decarbonisation globally in 2024 – 2026. The partners says that their collaboration will contribute to the development and launch of the upcoming China Cement Carbon Neutrality Roadmap. Equipment supplier Sinoma International Engineering and the European Cement Research Academy (ECRA) will also help to develop the roadmap. The GCCA previously launched its own global net zero roadmap in 2021. Together, GCCA and CCA members account for 90% of global cement production in capacity terms.
GCCA CEO Thomas Guillot, said “The world needs leadership and collaboration like never before, especially on addressing the key issue of our time, climate change. This agreement between the China industry and the global industry is a signal to the world that we stand ready to deliver the essential decarbonised building materials that our planet needs. Cement and concrete enable the key infrastructure, thriving and resilient communities, clean water, safe homes and the shift to clean energy that are essential to a future sustainable world.”
CCA Executive president Kong Xiangzhong said “This important agreement marks a win-win cooperation, and shows where we can collaborate effectively to bring insights, technical know-how and greater focus to our shared decarbonisation mission. I am sure this will create a mutually-beneficial and long-term partnership that will be crucial in building a more sustainable world.”
Update on China, March 2023
29 March 2023The Chinese cement sector had a tough time in 2022. This was confirmed this week as the large domestic cement producers released their financial results. Revenue was down, profits fell and cement sales volumes tumbled. The key causes included the continuation of the country’s zero-coronavirus policy, the declining real estate market and rising input costs for raw materials such as coal. Demand for cement withered and so did the fortunes of the cement companies.
Graph 1: Cement output in China, 2018 to 2022. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows that cement output fell by 9.8% year-on-year to 2.13Bnt in 2022 from 2.36Bnt in 2021. The greater decrease was in the first half of the year rather than the second. The China Cement Association (CCA) said that this was nearly the lowest output in the last decade and the largest decline since 1969 ! The National Bureau of Statistics of China also pointed out in a release that, despite investment in fixed assets increasing by around 5% in 2022 and national infrastructure spending growing by 9%, real estate development investment dropped by 10% to US$1.46Tn.
Graph 2: Sales revenue from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.
Graph 3: Sales volumes of cement and clinker from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.
The cement producers warned in their forecasts that the results for 2022 were going to be rough and so it came to pass. China National Building Material (CNBM)’s revenue fell by 16% year-on-year to US$33.4bn in 2022 and Anhui Conch’s sales fell by 21% to US$19.2bn in 2022. Although, Tangshang Jidong Cement and Huaxin Cement reported declines of income or revenue in single digits. Profits halved for all of the companies covered here. Various combinations of the reasons covered above were cited for the situation.
What is more interesting are the responses some of the producers are making and what has gone well. CNBM, for example, is pinning its hopes on better staggered peak production and infrastructure projects. Anhui Conch, meanwhile, appears to have been diversifying its business by increasing both its concrete and solar power production capacity significantly in 2022. It was also announced that it plans to spend US$2.81bn on capital expenditure projects in 2023. China Resources Cement (CRC) said it had optimised its presence in South China through selected acquisition and divestments. Huaxin Cement has continued its focus on overseas markets with its share of operating revenue originating from outside China rising to 13% of the group’s total in 2022 compared to 8% in 2021. It also mentioned a number of unnamed projects around the world steadily drawing nearer to action. Sure enough, the group announced earlier in March 2023 that it was buying a majority stake in Oman Cement.
As for 2023, the CCA forecast in January 2023 that cement demand would be flat or slightly down. However, at the same time, provincial changes to the real estate market are expected to improve market conditions and infrastructure development will further drive demand for cement. The CCA identified that the cement sector’s production overcapacity could become an issue with lower demand. In 2022 the national clinker production utilisation rate was 65%, a fall of 10% from that in 2021. It also pointed out that peak-staggered production had actually helped cement producers generally to cope with smaller declines in profits compared to less well regulated industries.
Problems such as the zero-coronavirus policy, the real estate market and rising raw material costs have made the country’s production overcapacity issue worse. Changes are being made such as the national abandonment of the coronavirus lockdowns in late 2022, and, as mentioned above, the real estate market is being modified. In addition to this, various environmental changes are on the way, as the government works towards its sustainability goals. The country remains the largest cement producer in the world. Yet the message here is that we should expect more of the same for the cement sector in China in 2023.
China: Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows that cement output fell by 12% year-on-year to 1.56Bnt in the first nine months of 2022 from 1.78Bnt in the same period in 2021. However, output started to pick up on a monthly basis in September 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 1% to 207Mt. Despite national increases in infrastructure development, the China Cement Association revealed that real estate development investment decreased by 8% to US$1.44tn in the first nine months of 2022.
Update on China, August 2022
31 August 2022The larger cement producers in China have published their half-year financial results and the numbers are looking grim. Starting with data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, cement output in the country fell by 14.5% year-on-year to 979Mt in the first half of 2022 from 1.14Bnt in the same period in 2021. This is the lowest first half output figure since 2012. The decline on a monthly basis started in May 2021 and has carried on consistently since then. Rolling cumulative annual output hit a low of 2.18Bnt in July 2022, the lowest figure since at least the start of 2019 and well before the coronavirus pandemic started.
Graph 1: Cement output in China, 2018 to 2022. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.
The financial figures from the cement producers have mostly followed this trend. Of the companies covered here, Anhui Conch’s drop in sales revenue was the most distinct at 30% year-on-year to US$8.14bn. However, Jidong Cement actually managed to increase its revenue and Huaxin Cement’s decrease was fairly small, possibly due to its growing stable of overseas projects. None of these companies could avoid falling cement and clinkers sales volumes though. Again, Anhui Conch is the outlier here with a larger fall in sales volumes proportionally at nearly 40% compared to around 20% for the rest. Chen Bolin, the deputy secretary-general of China Cement Association (CCA), told the 21st Century Business Herald newspaper that of the 20 or so listed cement companies that have published their half-year reports by the end of August 2022, more than half had reported falling sales revenue and net profit and only one company had managed to increase its net profit.
Graph 2: Sales revenue from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports. Note: Cement revenue shown only for CNBM & Taiwan Cement.
Graph 3: Sales volumes of cement and clinker from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.
The financial reports from the Chinese cement companies detailed here have been fairly light on the reasons for the current state of the sector. Repeated coronavirus outbreaks, instability in the real estate market, a lack of funding for infrastructure projects, growing energy and raw materials costs, pressure on prices and a generally weak economy have all been blamed for the situation. Media channels outside of China have continued to scan the country’s real estate sector for signs of collapse following Evergrande’s problems in 2021. However Chen Bolin diplomatically held back by describing the real estate market as not yet stabilised and a drag on cement demand. Instead he hoped that large-scale infrastructure projects would offer some form of relief.
One last point to note, that both the CCA has made and could be seen in some of the company reports, is that some of the Chinese cement companies are already starting to diversify their businesses. This is in parallel to what some of the larger western-based multinational cement producers have also been doing in recent years with forays into concrete, light building materials and construction chemicals. CNBM already has large concrete, light building materials and engineering subsidiaries. However, Huaxin Cement and Anhui Conch have also started to branch out recently into aggregates, concrete and new energy generation, in the case of the latter company. Things may get worse before they get better, especially depending when or if the Chinese government decides to act on the real estate market. However, whatever kind of adjustment the cement sector may face, there are some signs present already of what some of the companies may do next.
Update on China, May 2022
11 May 2022China Daily ran a story this week entitled “Steel and cement don't reflect China's growth story any more.” The piece reassured English-language readers that the country’s economy is moving on and that recent falling production of cement simply reflected the “profound changes China's economic structure is undergoing.” Profound is the right word here given that China is home to the world’s largest cement sector.
Graph 1: Cement output by quarter in China, 2019 - 2022. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.
Data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology shows that cement output fell by 12% year-on-year to 387Mt in the first quarter of 2022. This compares to 7% and 15% falls in the third and fourth quarters of 2021 respectively. On an annual cumulative rolling basis, output previously hit a low of 2.22Bnt in March 2020 as the initial coronavirus outbreak was brought under control. Output then surged to a high of 2.53Bnt/yr in April 2021 before it started to fall in the autumn of 2021. On a monthly basis, output volumes fell by 5.6% year-on-year to 187Mt in March 2022.
As covered in last week’s column (GCW 555), the financial results from the larger Chinese cement producers have also suffered in the first quarter of 2022. CNBM’s total operating revenue fell by 1% year-on-year to US$7.29bn in the first quarter of 2022. Anhui Conch’s revenue fell by 26% to US$3.85bn and China Resources Cement’s (CRC) turnover fell by 18% to US$889m. Of these three only CRC has released cement sales volumes. Its sales volumes of cement and clinker decreased by 34% and 12% respectively.
In its own analysis, the China Cement Association (CCA) has summarised the current situation as one of rising costs, falling demand and declining benefits. The latest large-scale coronavirus lockdowns and a poor real estate market have hit demand. Rising energy and freight prices have increased the cost of cement. Together, higher costs and falling demand have hit the profits of the cement producers. CNBM’s net profit, for example, fell by 9% to US$420m. Regionally, the CCA observed that the losses of the northern-based producers had increased and that the profits of the southern producers had started to fall sharply also. Another interesting point it made was that the year-on-year decline in March 2022 was slower than compared to the first quarter as a whole and that high levels of inventory may have made March 2022 look worse than it actually was. The association is now pinning its hopes upon demand and prices picking up again later in the second quarter after the current quarantine controls are eased and the government curbs high coal prices.
The CCA’s take doesn’t seem unreasonable, although the first quarter of 2022 was previously deemed to be a continuation of the trouble the Chinese cement sector experienced in the autumn of 2021. Possibly the first quarter has turned out worse than expected but the monthly output in March 2022 has started to look like it might be a tail-off from the worst. The period to watch remains the second quarter of 2022. Looking more widely, energy shocks from the war in Ukraine couldn’t be easily predicted but coal prices were already becoming a concern in the autumn of 2021. China’s renewed zero-Covid policy meanwhile is starting to look unpalatable both economically and socially. Throw in a continued slowdown of the real estate sector and China Daily’s profound pronouncement about the future of cement may prove accurate.
Many first quarter financial results for cement producers are out already and what can be seen so far deserves discussion. The first observation is that the sales revenues of Chinese companies have suffered compared to their international peers. As can be seen in Graph 1 (below) CNBM increased its sales slightly in the first quarter of 2022 but Anhui Conch and China Resources Cement (CRC) had significant falls. Stronger results from CNBM’s non-cement production subsidiaries released so far suggest that the parent company’s slow performance is likely due to the cement market. The China Cement Association has reported that national cement output dropped by 12% year-on-year to 387Mt in the first quarter of 2022. It blamed this on the latest local coronavirus wave, limited construction project funds and poor weather.
Graph 1: Sales revenues in the first quarter of 2022 from selected cement producers. Source: Company financial reports. Note: SCG data is for its building materials division only.
Outside of China sales revenue growth has been better with Holcim and Dangote Cement leading the companies presented here. Holcim attributed its success to “strong demand, acquisitions and pricing”. Demand and pricing have been familiar refrains in many of the results reports this quarter. The undertone though has been the destabilising effects upon energy prices by the ongoing war in Ukraine. Holcim’s head Jan Jenisch summed it up as navigating “challenging times, from the pandemic to geopolitical uncertainty.” The producers with operations in the Americas and Europe seem to have coped with this so far mostly due to resurgent markets. Quarterly sales revenue growth for Holcim, CRH (not shown in the graphs) and Cemex each exceeded 10% year-on-year in both of these regions.
The regionally focused companies presented here have suffered more. India-based UltraTech Cement said that its energy costs grew by 48%, with prices of petcoke and coal doubling during the period. Nigeria-based Dangote Cement reported that its group sales volumes were down 3.6% mainly due to energy supply challenges in Nigeria. Internationally, its operations relying on cement and clinker imports – in Ghana, Sierra-Leone and Cameroon – were also hit by high freight rates caused by global supply chain issues. Thailand-based SCG said that national demand for cement demand fell by 3% due to negative geopolitical effects causing inflation, a delay to the recovery of tourism and a generally subdued market.
Graph 2: Cement sales volumes in the first quarter of 2022 from selected cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.
It’s too early to read much into it but one final point is worth considering from cement sales volumes in the first quarter of 2022. They have appeared to fall for the companies that have actually released the data. The reasons for CRC in China and Dangote Cement in Sub-Saharan Africa have been covered above. Holcim’s volume decline was 2% on a like-for-like basis and the others were all very small changes.
To summarise, it’s been a good quarter for those cement producers covered here with operations in North American and Europe. Energy instability caused by the war in Ukraine so far seems to have been passed on to consumers through higher prices with no apparent ill effect. The regional producers have suffered more, with the Chinese ones having to cope with falling demand and the others finding it harder to absorb mounting energy costs and supply chain issues. Plenty more first quarter results are due from other cement companies in the next few days and weeks and it will be interesting to see whether these trends hold or if others are taking place.
China: Cement output fell by 12% year-on-year to 387Mt in the first quarter of 2022. Data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also shows that cement output volumes fell by 5.6% year-on-year to 187Mt in March 2022, according to the Xinhua News Agency. The China Cement Association has blamed this on the latest local coronavirus wave, limited construction project funds and poor weather.
China - Happy New Year?
19 January 2022The cement output data for December 2021 is out for China and we’re starting to see the effects of a rather tough autumn. Lower coal supplies, consumer prioritisation for energy supplies, higher input costs and a slowing real estate market all contributed to a reduction in output.
Graph 1: Cement output by quarter in China, 2019 –2021. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.
As can be seen in Graph 1 above, output took off after the shock of the coronavirus outbreak receded at the start of 2020. This then continued until mid-2021 when things changed. Overall cement out was 2.36Bnt in 2021, an annual drop of nearly 1.2% compared to 2.39Bnt in 2020. Note that the 2021 output figure is about average for China’s annual output since it hit a high of nearly 2.5Bnt in 2014. However, the months from September 2021 onwards have seen output drops of above 10% year-on-year. It’s been from a high base but if it were to continue it could signal a more ominous trend. As the China Cement Association (CCA) describes it, cement output started to slow from May to August 2021, in part due to seasonal factors and repeated local outbreaks of Covid-19 around the country. This trend then started to accelerate for the reasons mentioned above.
Looking at energy first, coal future prices in China hit a near-decade high in October 2021 due to a variety of market disruptions. This looked set to worsen at the start of January 2022 when the country’s biggest overseas supplier, Indonesia, banned exports for a month due domestic shortages. However, data has since emerged this week from the National Bureau of Statistics showing that Chinese coal production grew by 4% year-on-year to 4.07Bnt in 2021, with faster monthly growth, as the industry ramped up output to meet demand.
On the real estate market, the CCA views it as having run ‘hot’ and then ‘cold’ in 2021. At the start of the year the government introduced new government regulations (its so-called three red lines of policy) to reduce borrowing in the sector. The real estate market subsequently declined, not withstanding certain hot-spots. In the western press this process has been symbolised by the fortunes of Evergrande and its debts of over US$300bn. It started missing bond payments in September 2021 before formally defaulting in December 2021. As the Financial Times newspaper reported in a summary on the situation, in late December 2021, Evergrande said that work at 92% of its projects, which number in the hundreds across China, had resumed. Separate data though showed that its housing sales had slumped by 99% year-on-year in the same month. The newspaper has compared the Chinese government’s approach to Evergrande to its handling of conglomerate HNA Group, which was eventually declared bankrupt in 2021 after a slow disintegration. In its opinion the government may try to control the collapse of Evergrande through a series of quiet interventions over a long period. However, Evergrande’s debts appear to be double those of HNA Group’s and there may be further risks from other companies in the real estate sector. All of this presents risks to local cement output.
To round up, Chinese cement output in the second quarter of 2022 is the figure to watch to assess how well the industry is coping with its current issues. Production is likely to slow in the first quarter due to seasonal factors such as the New Year holidays, winter shutdowns and the hangover from the problems in the autumn. Once the spring arrives then we may have a glimpse of how cement companies are coping with coal supplies, the real estate market and all the rest.
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CO2 emissions by the Chinese cement sector
01 December 2021Holcim has announced today that it has concluded the sale of its 75% stake of its Zambian business to Huaxin Cement. Meanwhile, in Tanzania last week, Huaxin Cement officially commissioned a cement grinding line at its Tanzanian Maweni Limestone plant. China produces about half the world’s cement and some its producers are expanding overseas as domestic growth dwindles. These actions and others place increased scrutiny on sustainability issues for Chinese cement producers. Readers therefore may be interested to note the publication last week of a list of the 100 largest Chinese corporate emitters of CO2 in 2020.
The Chinese Cement Association (CCA) website carries some highlights on the work by from the cement sector’s perspective. China Venture Carbon and Caixin compiled the list of publicly listed companies using a mixture of freely available data such as sustainability reports, by adjusting public data or by making estimates. The companies covered released 4.42Bnt of CO2 in 2020 or 45% of the Chinese total. The 15 cement firms in the top 100 were responsible for 893Mt of CO2 or around 9% of the national total. This ratio is in keeping with the usual 5 – 10% share of global CO2 emissions attributed to cement production.
Graph 1: Global gross CO2 emissions by large cement companies in 2020. Source: China Venture Carbon/ Caixin, corporate sustainability reports. Note: Includes all reported direct and indirect emissions for all company business lines.
Many of the Chinese cement companies already release sustainability data each year so this data isn’t exactly new. Yet seeing it all in one place like this is illuminating. Unsurprisingly, on the cement side the ranking is a list of producers ordered roughly by production capacity. The world’s biggest cement producer CNBM is also the cement company that emits the most CO2. It released 255Mt of CO2 in 2020. If it were a country, for example, it would be around the 20th largest emitter in the world with a similar output to France or Thailand. In China CNBM is then followed by Anhui Conch, BBMG, Tangshan Jidong Cement and China Resources Cement (CRC).
Graph 1 above also includes the total gross CO2 emissions for other large cement producers outside of China in 2020 for comparison. These figures are estimates compiled from company sustainability reports and they attempt to cover all direct and indirect emissions across all business lines not just cement. Similar to the Chinese list, generally, the less CO2 a cement company emits on this graph the less cement it produces. It is also worth noting that 2020 was an unusual year given the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. Generally this reduced global manufacturing output but there was wide regional variation.
The other interesting point to note from the China Venture Carbon-Caixin project is that they re-ranked their list by carbon emission intensity, measured as emissions as a proportion of revenue. This totally changes the ordering. Where before the 15 cement companies were fairly evenly spaced out amongst power generators, coal producers and petrochemical companies, now all of them are in the top 50. As the CCA notes in its commentary, “The emission intensity of electricity and cement is much higher than that of other industries. The top 30 companies in terms of carbon emission intensity are almost all power and cement companies.” Whilst most of these companies are probably safe for the time being, given their size, what this might mean for smaller Chinese cement companies with high emission intensity in light of the Chinese government’s energy efficiency drives might be seen as worrying.
Promoting gross CO2 emissions by cement producers is generally avoided by cement producers because it makes them look bad! It prompts an argument with the environmental lobby and doesn’t recognise the essential nature of cementitious building products to society. However, to their credit producers are publishing the data. The preferred metric for the non-Chinese multinationals is specific emissions per tonne of cement as this better shows the hard-work made to reduce emissions. However, this risks a credibility gap from the outside world, if specific emissions go down but total emissions keep rising each year. In the meantime though the more data the better from China and everywhere else.
Energy costs mounting for the cement sector
20 October 2021UltraTech Cement, Taiheiyo Cement, Cimtogo and the Chinese Cement Association (CCA) have all been talking about the same thing recently: energy prices.
India-based UtraTech Cement reported this week that coal and petcoke prices nearly doubled in the second quarter of its current financial year, leading to a 17% rise year-on-year in energy costs. Japan-based Taiheiyo Cement released a statement earlier in October 2021 saying that due to mounting coal prices it was planning to raise the price of its cement from the start of 2022. It principally blamed this on increased demand in China and a stagnant export market. It added that it was ‘inevitable’ that prices would rise further in the future. Meanwhile in West Africa, Eric Goulignac, the chief executive officer of Cimtogo, complained to the local press that the reason the company’s cement prices were going up was due to a 250% increase in the cost of fuels for the Scantogo plant and an increase in the price of sea freight of over US$35/t for transporting gypsum and coal.
Other places where the cost of energy has been biting cement producers include Turkey and Serbia. In the former, Türk Çimento, the Turkish Cement Manufacturers' Association, warned in June 2021 that the price of petcoke had nearly tripled over the previous year. Whether it was connected or not, the Turkish Building Contractors Confederation (IMKON) organised a strike in September 2021 due to high costs. The confederation claimed that the price of cement had tripled over the last year. In Serbia electricity prices have risen sharply in recent months in common with much of Europe. Local press reported comments last month from President Aleksandar Vučić saying that an unnamed cement producer had warned of a 25% rise in the price of cement if electricity prices remained high. In the UK the Energy Intensive Users Group (EIUG), a network of lobbying groups for heavy industry including cement, has been holding talks with the government on how to cope with growing energy costs. Finally, in the US, Lhoist warned in September 2021 that is was going to increase the cost of all of its lime products from the start of November 2021 due to increasing gas prices. These are just some of the reactions by cement and lime producers to the current global energy market. No doubt there are many more.
The current global energy crunch has widely been attributed to the waking up of economies following coronavirus-related dormancy in 2020 with supply failing to meet demand. Gas prices have risen to record highs and this has promoted electricity producers to switch to coal in the US, Europe and Asia. This in turn has put pressure on industrial users as both electricity and coal prices have grown and governments have taken action in some cases to protect domestic users. In Europe price pressure has lead to reductions in ammonia and fertiliser production. Power cuts have been reported in China and India.
In China a variety of factors have converged to create a crisis. These include shutting down coal mines on environmental and safety grounds, anti-corruption measures and even promoting mine closures to facilitate clean skies for national events such as the Communist party’s 100th anniversary. Disruption to import sources such as a ban on Australian coal on political grounds, flooding in Indonesia and a renewed coronavirus outbreak in Mongolia can’t have helped either. Thermal coal futures traded on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange hit a high of US$263/t on 15 October 2021 marking a 34% rise through the week and the largest weekly growth since trading started in 2013. The International Energy Agency estimates that coal demand in China grew by over 10% year-on-year in the first half of 2021 but coal production increased by just over 5%.
Industrial users have suffered as energy supplies have been rationed and producers asked to cut output. In September 2021 cement output fell by 12% year-on-year to 205Mt from 233Mt in September 2020. This is the lowest monthly figure for September since 2011. It’s also not the usual direction of double-digit rate of change that the Chinese cement sector is used to. The CCA attributed this mainly to energy controls, power shortages and high coal prices in Jiangsu, Hunan, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Shandong and elsewhere. Cement output for the first nine months of 2021 is still ahead of 2020 at 1.77Bnt compared to 1.67Bnt but it’s been slipping noticeably since July 2021.
This will leave energy users, including cement producers, watching the weather forecasts rather closely this winter. Should the Northern Hemisphere suffer a cold one then energy prices such as coal will reflect it. Industrial users may also become subject to energy rationing in many places. The knock-on effect of this then will be higher cement prices. However bad the winter does turn out to be though we can expect more cement companies trying to explain bashfully why their prices are going up. On the plus side any producer that can diversify its energy mix through solar, alternative fuels or whatever else is likely to be doing so soon if they are not already.