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Changes are underway in South Asia’s second largest cement sector, with two legal developments that affect the industry set in motion in the past week. At a national level, the Competition Commission of Pakistan recommended that the government require cement producers to include production and expiry dates on the labels of bagged cement. Meanwhile, in Pakistan’s largest province, Punjab, a new law tightened procedures around the establishment and expansion of cement plants. At the same time, the country’s cement producers began to publish their financial results for the first nine months of the 2024 financial year (FY2024).

During the nine-month period up to 31 March 2024, the Pakistani cement industry sold 34.5Mt of cement, up by 3% year-on-year. Producers have responded to the growth with capacity expansions, including the launch of the new 1.3Mt/yr Line 3 of Attock Cement’s Hub cement plant in Balochistan on 17 April 2023. China-based contractor Hefei Cement Research & Design executed the project, including installation of a Loesche LM 56.3+3 CS vertical roller mill, giving the Hub plant a new, expanded capacity of 3Mt/yr.

Pressure has eased on the operating costs of Pakistani cement production, as inflation slowed and the country received a new government in March 2024, following political unrest in 2022 and 2023. Coal prices also settled back to 2019 levels, after prolonged agitation. Pakistan Today News reported the value of future coal supply contracts as US$93/t for June 2024, down by 2% over six months from US$95/t for January 2024.

Nonetheless, cost optimisation remained a ‘strong focus’ in the growth strategy of Fauji Cement, which switched to using local and Afghan coal at its plants during the past nine months. Its reliance on captive power rose to 60% of consumption, thanks to its commissioning of new waste heat recovery and solar power capacity. During the first nine months of FY2024, the company’s year-on-year sales growth of 14% narrowly offset cost growth of 13%, leaving it with net profit growth of 1%.

Looking more closely, the latest sales data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) shows a stark divergence within cement producers’ markets. While exports recorded 68% year-on-year growth to 5.1Mt, domestic sales fell, by 4% to 29.4Mt. The association further breaks down Pakistani cement sales data into South Pakistan (Balochistan and Sindh) and North Pakistan (all other regions). Domestic sales dropped most sharply in South Pakistan, by 6% to 5.16Mt. In the North, they dropped by 3% to 24.2Mt. Part of the reason was a high base of comparison, following flooding-related reconstruction work nationally during the 2023 financial year. Meanwhile, the government finished rolling out track-and-trace on all cement despatches during the opening months of the current financial year, and commenced the implementation of axle load requirements for cement trucks. APCMA flagged both policies as potentially disruptive to its members’ domestic deliveries, amid a strong infrastructure project pipeline.

Pakistani producers suffer from overcapacity, but have established themselves as an important force in the global export market. They continue to locate new markets, including the UK in January 2024. Lucky Cement was among leading exporters overall, with a large share of its orders originating from Africa.

On 17 April 2024, the government of Punjab province set up a committee to assess new proposed cement projects, with the ultimate goal of conserving water. Falling water tables are considered a significant economic threat in agricultural Punjab. Besides completing an inspection by the new committee, proposed projects must also secure clearance from six different provincial government departments and the local government. While acknowledging the necessity of the cement industry, the government insisted that it will take legal action against any cement plant that exceeds water allowances.

Pakistan’s cement plants have grown in anticipation of a local market boom. Without this strong core of sales, underutilisation will remain troublesome, especially in North Pakistan where exposure is highest. At the same time, APCMA has given expression to the perceived lack of support affecting production and distribution. For an industry with expansionist aims, new restrictions on its growth and operations can feel like an existential menace.

Italy: Buzzi recorded consolidated sales of Euro4.32bn in 2023, up by 8.1% from Euro4.32bn in 2022. This came in spite of a 7% year-on-year drop in the company’s cement sales volumes, to 26.3Mt. In its domestic market of Italy, Buzzi raised its sales by 13% to Euro818m. In the US, sales grew by 9.5% to Euro1.74bn, in Mexico by 33% to Euro1.03bn, in Germany by 9.2% to Euro872m, in the Czech Republic and Slovakia by 1.8% to Euro205m, in Poland by 11% to Euro157m and in Ukraine by 43% to Euro85.6m. On the other hand, Buzzi’s sales fell by 5.6% in Luxembourg and the Netherlands, to Euro214m, by 2% in Russia to Euro285m, and by 1.6% in Brazil to Euro394m.

The company said “The increasingly evident effects of monetary restriction, the worsening of consumer and business confidence, and the uncertainties dictated by the growing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to weigh on the international economic framework. In fact, in the last part of 2023, global economic activity weakened further, with international trade contracting in the third quarter.”

US: Portland Cement Association (PCA) chief economist and senior vice president of market intelligence Ed Sullivan forecast a recovery of the US economy in the second half of 2024 at the World of Concrete conference in Las Vegas, Nevada. However, Sullivan told attendees that the economy will ‘gradually weaken’ in the first half of the year. The anticipated weakening is compounded by the end of Covid-19 relief programmes, delayed monetary policy effects and credit tightening. Supporting growth throughout the year are some of the US$550bn infrastructure investments under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. The US government says that 40,000 new projects under the act are either in progress or completed.

Ed Sullivan said "In terms of the construction outlook, there will be a battle between interest sensitive construction sectors and less interest sensitive construction activity such as infrastructure spending and the construction of large manufacturing plants associated with the CHIPS and Science Act."

Switzerland: Swiss cement shipments dropped by 10% year-on-year to 3.7Mt in 2023, from 4.1Mt in 2022. Shipments declined across all quarters, including by 10% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter. Cement with a reduced clinker factor grew to account for 96% of shipments from 95%, and rail shipments rose to 38%. Ready-mixed concrete plants received 73% of shipments, and building sites 21%.

The Swiss cement association, Cemsuisse, said that it anticipates continued uncertainties and high import pressures in 2024.

Brazil: Brazil consumed 62Mt in 2023, down by 1.7% year-on-year, according to data from the National Cement Industry Association (SNIC). This marks the second successive year of decline, after demand dropped by 2.8% to 63.1Mt in 2022. As a result, cement’s value on the National Construction Cost Index dropped by 6%, after having risen by 13% in 2022. The domestic cement industry recorded a capacity utilisation rate of 66% in 2023.

SNIC president Paulo Camillo Penna noted high household debt, high interest rates and poor income growth as impacting the industry’s sales. He said “The My House, My Life housing programme was not fully operational until the middle of the year. Up to September 2023, the construction industry experienced a 16% decline in the number of real-estate launches.” He continued “By 2026, we will experience a period of turnaround for the cement industry.”

Malaysia: Hume Cement Industries recorded US$65.5m in sales during the first quarter of the 2024 financial year (beginning 1 July 2023). This represents 48% year-on-year growth from US$44.2m one year previously. The producer’s profit was US$10.3m, against a US$2.57m loss in the first quarter of the 2023 financial year.

Bernama Daily Malaysian News has reported that Hume Cement Industries expects domestic cement demand to rise throughout the 2024 financial year. Nonetheless, the company said “The board remains cautious, as the uncertainties arising from geopolitical pressures continue to challenge the cement industry's input costs. The group is increasing its focus on developing sustainable construction materials in this growing economy, while continuing its efforts to enhance operational excellence.”

Pakistan: Fauji Cement sold 4.9Mt of cement during Pakistan’s 2023 financial year (FY2023), which ended on 30 June 2023. This generated revenues of US$244m, up by 25% year-on-year from US$194m in FY2022. The producer’s earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) also rose, by 29% to US$72.3m from US$56.2m.

Managing director and CEO Qamar Haris Manzoor said “The transformation journey which started in 2020 on capacity enhancement, cost reduction initiatives and increasing captive green energy has now started to pay dividends, despite unpreceded economic challenges.” He continued “FY2023 has been challenging for businesses due to all-time high inflation and interest rates, which saw a drop in consumer demand, negatively affecting the industry. The cement industry saw a demand decline of 16% as construction activities decreased in both the northern and southern regions of the country. Despite the tough environment, Fauji Cement remained committed to its growth strategy, and successfully commissioned its 6500t/day expansion project at its Nizampur site.”

Ukraine: Cement companies produced 4.75Mt of cement during the first eight months of 2023, up by 30% year-on-year from eight-month 2022 levels. Interfax-Ukraine News has reported that producers are operating at 60% production capacity.

Liudmyla Kripka, executive director of the Ukrainian cement association, Ukrcement, said “If we compare it with last year, when the country’s economy was in shock from Russia’s treacherous attack on Ukraine and the start of the full-scale war, the situation has improved somewhat. Cement production in the first half of 2023 grew by 26%, and in the first eight months by 30%, compared to last year.” Kripka added “We are still far from the indicators of 2021, but the dynamics are encouraging. Once there was a prospect, work for the future began. Cement producers, even in war conditions, are investing in Ukraine and the economic restoration of the regions. This expands the production capacity of the industry as a whole and contributes to the creation of new jobs.”

Malaysia: Malayan Cement recorded consolidated sales of US$808m during the 2023 financial year, up by 39% year-on-year from US$583m in the previous financial year. Its net profit was US$34.2m, up by 90% from US$18m. The company partly attributed its sales growth to its incorporation of YTL Cement, which took place in the 2022 financial year on 21 September 2021. It also increased its cement sales volumes and prices.

Looking to the current, 2024 financial year, Malayan Cement said “Non-residential construction activities are expected to benefit from higher investments in manufacturing facilities, given the shift in global supply chains. Nonetheless, the group's optimism is tempered with caution, as inflation and higher interest rates may have a knock-on effect on cement demand.” It added “Our ability to deliver seamless solutions to customers will be optimised, boding well for the positive growth and outlook of the group and the industry going forward.”

Italy: Buzzi's revenues rose by 14% year-on-year in the first half of 2023, to Euro2.15bn from Euro1.88bn in the first half of 2022. This was despite an 8.3% decline in its sales and volumes of cement and clinker, to 5.12Mt from 5.83Mt. The group recorded a rise in its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of 58% to Euro575m from Euro365m. It noted an 'unfavourable economic situation,' with a slowdown in many of its markets.

Buzzi said "In the second quarter of 2023, the performance of the manufacturing segment was still weak, and contributed to limiting the growth prospects of international trade. In early 2023, consumer price inflation slowed down, thanks to the decrease in the energy component, although it remained at historically high levels. The decline in inflation was more evident in industrial goods, which incorporated the trend of energy prices." It added "Prospects continue to be negatively affected by persistent inflation and the consequent restrictive orientation of monetary policies in the major advanced economies, as well as by the uncertainty associated with the continuation of geopolitical tensions on a global scale, first of all the ongoing conlict in Ukraine."