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Azerbaijan: The Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA) has called on governments at the COP29 climate conference to support the decarbonisation of the cement industry. The association published its Net Zero Progress Report 2024/25 to coincide with the conference. The report details the ‘extensive decarbonisation work’ currently underway in the industry, including accelerating carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), switching to renewable energy sources, advancing the circular economy and reducing cement’s clinker factor. The sector expects to commission its first net zero cement plant, following a carbon capture upgrade to Heidelberg Materials’ Brevik plant in Norway, later in 2024.

GCCA president Fernando González said “Our industry is engaged in the most significant transformation in its history. To fully unlock our decarbonisation progress in this crucial Decade to Deliver, we urgently need effective policy support."

India: UltraTech Cement has obtained a $500m sustainability-linked loan from Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, State Bank of India, BNP Paribas and other lenders. Capital Market News has reported that the conditions for the loan align with UltraTech's 2050 Net-Zero Roadmap. Under the roadmap, the subsidiary of Aditya Birla Group aims to reduce its Scope 1 CO₂ emissions per tonne of cementitious material by 27% between 2017 and 2032, and to raise its reliance on renewables to 85% of its energy consumption by 2030.

UltraTech Cement previously issued sustainability-linked bonds in 2021.

Switzerland: Holcim plans to expand the use of artificial intelligence (AI)-based software at 100 production plants by 2028. The company will use the technology for predictive maintenance, in order to increase operational efficiency and resilience. It has installed the system at 45 plants to date. C3 AI is providing its predictive software products, and the group is also piloting generative AI techniques.

Holcim CEO Miljan Gutovic said "AI is a transformative technology that will revolutionise our industry. Already widely embedded across Holcim, AI catalyses operational efficiency and enhances customer service.”

The National Development and Reform Commission and other government bodies in China released plans this week to cap clinker production capacity at 1.8Bnt/yr by the end of 2025. Energy efficiency of existing capacity will be used as the driver to determine which production lines can remain open. 30% of capacity will be required to be above the benchmark energy efficiency level. Plants below this line will be obliged to upgrade or face elimination.

Points of interest from the longer release include detail on how the authorities intend to promote energy efficiency. Installing improved production line equipment is as might be expected. However, there is also a drive towards low-carbon fuel substitution such as an increased thermal substitution rate (TSR) through the use of alternative fuels (AF), promotion of renewable energy sources and, interestingly, no new cement plants will be able to add captive coal power plants. The government is targeting a TSR of 10% by the end of 2025 with 30% of lines using AF in some form or another. A plan to reduce the clinker factor in cement is also being pushed through for the increased use of blast furnace slag, fly ash, carbide slag, manganese slag and other supplementary cementitious materials. This last point might have big implications for the ferrous slag export market but that’s a story for another day.

Working out how much these new measures will affect the cement sector in China in the short term is not straightforward since it’s unclear what the country’s actual production capacity is and how much of it is actually active. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed that cement output was 2.02Bnt in 2023. The China Cement Association (CCA) estimated that the capacity utilisation rate was 59% in 2023. So, if the sector were using all of its integrated cement plants flat out, then one might crudely suppose that the national production capacity might be around 3.5Bnt/yr. This guess does not take into account the prevalence of blended cements and a whole host of other factors so should be treated with caution. Given that cement output fell by 5% year-on-year in 2023, output could be just over 1.8Bnt in 2025 if the rate of decline holds. Research by Reuters in April 2024, suggested that the capacity utilisation rate hit 50% in that month, suggesting that the sector could meet the target in 2024 if it’s a particularly bad year. So, provided the production cap is enacted along the same lines of peak-shifting, where plants are temporarily shut for periods, then the target looks well within reach.

As reported in April 2024, the Chinese cement sector has faced rationalisation in recent years as the real estate market collapsed. Output peaked in 2020 and then fell subsequently. Most of the big producers endured falling sales volumes, revenue and profit in 2022, although some managed to resist the continuing decline in 2023. One coping mechanism has been to focus on overseas markets as proposed by the government’s Belt and Road initiative. Huaxin Cement has been a particular proponent of this strategy. The CCA says that China-based companies have invested in and built 43 clinker production lines in 21 countries with a cement production capacity of 81Mt/yr. Another 43Mt/yr of capacity is currently being built outside of China with yet another 25Mt/yr of capacity proposed for construction.

It is interesting, then, to note that the CCA issued an official warning this week to its members to invest ‘cautiously’ in Uzbekistan. The association said in a statement that at the end of April 2024 the country had 46 integrated production lines with a cement production capacity of 38Mt/yr. This is double the country’s demand for cement. Half of this production capacity is managed by China-based companies. It added that the utilisation rate was currently 50%, that the price had dropped by about 40% since 2020 and that competition was ‘fierce.’ Incredibly, another 7Mt/yr of capacity is expected to be added in 2024. The CCA has advised Chinese companies to consider the state of the Uzbek cement market before making any more investments.

The two news stories we have explored this week cover two sides of the same issue: Chinese cement overcapacity. The local market is finally slowing down after a period of phenomenal growth and the big question is what is the actual market demand now that all the big stuff has already been built. The government gives every impression it is using the decline to meet its sustainability goals. Like institutions in many other places it has set itself targets that it seems likely to meet. The flipside of overcapacity at home is investment overseas. China-based plant equipment manufacturers have certainly done well out of this situation. Yet in Uzbekistan, at least, it looks like the cement sector in China has also managed to export its overcapacity. This has created the absurd situation where the CCA has implored its members and others to exercise the same self-discipline abroad that the government extols at home. Another way to put this might be that Chinese cement companies are increasingly unable to make money at home… or in Uzbekistan. This then leaves a query over where else enthusiastic Chinese cement investors may be causing market imbalances. One solution might be for the Chinese government to impose a cap on clinker production by its companies outside the mainland. Whatever happens next though, the introduction of a capacity cap in mainland China marks a decisive change to the local cement sector.

China: The National Development and Reform Commission, along with other government departments, has launched the Special Action Plan for Energy Conservation and CO₂ Reduction in the Cement Industry. The plan aims to cap clinker capacity at 1.8Bnt/yr by 2026, with 30% of it above the national energy efficiency benchmark level. This will reduce energy consumption per tonne by 3.7% from 2020 levels. The plan will eliminate 13Mt of CO₂ emissions and 5Mt of coal consumption in 2024 – 2025.

Thailand: Siam Cement Group (SCG) reported first-quarter sales of US$3.36bn in 2024, down by 3% year-on-year. The group partly attributed this to a decline in its cement volumes. Nonetheless, group earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose by 4% to US$341m. Special items in the group’s first-quarter 2023 results precipitated an 85% year-on-year decline in net income to US$65.5m from US$446m.

SCG recorded first-quarter CO₂ emissions of 5.99Mt, outstripping the Science-Based Targets Initiative (SBTi)’s recommendation of a 2.5% annual reduction. It relied on 47% renewable energy sources in its cement production.

Switzerland: The Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA) is holding its Innovandi Global Cement and Concrete Research Network (GCCRN) Spring Week at the École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) campus on 22 – 26 April 2024. 450 delegates from over 40 academic institutions will attend the event, featuring workshops, idea exchanges and progress reviews focused on the decarbonisation of cement and concrete by 2050. Topics include the use of AI, alternative materials and processes, concrete recycling, renewables, kiln electrification and carbon capture.

GCCRN industrial chair and Cemex global research development vice president and Davide Zampini said “If we are to reach our goal of net zero concrete by 2050, then we cannot do so alone. We need to explore as well as harness solutions and collaboration well beyond our industry. That’s why Spring Week is so important.”

GCCRN scientific chair Karen Scrivener said “Everyone here at EPFL is proud to be hosting this year’s Spring Week, anticipated as our largest gathering yet, marking a significant milestone in our journey toward net zero research.”

Heidelberg Materials announced this week that it is preparing to close its integrated cement plants at Beffes and Villiers-au-Bouin in France by October 2025. It framed the restructuring as a response to ‘a significant decline in cement sales in France’ and a plan to focus on low-carbon products. Unfortunately, local media reported that around 170 jobs will be lost at the two sites. The company says it is looking at ‘socially acceptable solutions’ including redeployment to other locations in the country.

Investment has been forthcoming from Heidelberg Materials France in recent years. It reminded everyone that it initiated a Euro400m scheme at its France-based subsidiary Ciments Calcia in late 2020. Most of this was earmarked towards a new production line at the Airvault plant, which is currently being built. Other schemes at the Beaucaire, Bussac-Forêt and Couvrot integrated plants followed. More recently, Heidelberg Materials launched a carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) project at Airvault, part of the GOCO2 initiative, with the aim of starting initial capture in 2030 with full 1Mt/yr capture planned later. What the company didn’t mention though was at the time of that 2020 investment it was also preparing to convert the integrated Gargenville plant into a grinding unit, stop white cement production at its Cruas plant with the intention of turning the site into a terminal and it wanted to reduce its workforce by around 140. To be fair to Heidelberg Materials though, it did have the same goal of reducing its specific net CO₂ emissions. The added detail this week was that the group aims to generate half of its revenue from sustainable products that are either low-carbon or circular by 2030.

Heidelberg Materials France is not alone with its ambitions for low-carbon products. Holcim notably opened in early 2023 what it said was the first calcined clay unit in Europe at its Saint-Pierre-la-Cour cement plant. Heidelberg Materials then followed in May 2023 with the announcement of a calcined clay project at its Bussac-Forêt cement plant. Other clay projects from Vicat, NeoCem and Neo-Eco have been reported since then. The other prominent France-based blended cement producer that has steadily been building its business in recent years is Hoffmann Green Cement. More general plant upgrade projects that are also worth mentioning include Eqiom’s (CRH) upgrade to its Lumbres plant in February 2024 and the ignition of a new kiln at Lafarge France’s Martres-Tolosane plant in October 2023. Both of these projects have been framed as driving sustainability.

Graph 1: Cement production in France, 2014 - 2022. Source: France Ciment.

Heidelberg Materials’ assessment about the poor state of the cement market has been confirmed by local media. Sales reportedly started falling in 2022, were down by 6% year-on-year in 2023 and further downward pressure is expected in 2024. Production data shown in Graph 1 above released by France Ciment, the national cement association, doesn’t really show what has been happening with sales. Over the last 20 years production hit a high of around 22Mt in the mid-2000s before settling around 16 - 17Mt/yr from 2015 onwards. The more telling trend, perhaps, has been the increase in CEM II blended cements from 50% in 2012 to 64% in 2022. Cement production may have stayed roughly the same over the last decade but it is using less clinker than it used to. Hence the pressure on companies like Ciments Calcia to reduce clinker capacity.

A further cost pressure facing cement producers in France is the impending end to the price cap on electricity scheduled by the end of 2025. The government enacted the scheme in late 2021 at the end of the Covid-19 pandemic, but then carried on as energy prices spiked following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. France Ciment lobbied in August 2023 for further protection for the sector using the argument that decarbonisation was not possible without electricity available for a reasonable price. It added that decarbonising the cement sector in France with carbon capture would cost around Euro3.5bn. Electricity prices started rising in February 2024 as part of the government’s phase out of the scheme.

Finally, 17 people were arrested on 5 April 2024 in connection with a demonstration at Lafarge France’s Val-de-Reuil ready-mixed concrete plant in Eure. Environmental activists reportedly trespassed on the site, according to local press, causing an estimated Euro450,000 in damages with acts such as spraying foam into machinery, ripping up bags of cement, breaking windows and more. The activists presented their actions as a response to both the environmental impact of cement and concrete production and the ongoing legal allegations about Lafarge’s actions in Syria in the early 2010s. Lafarge France’s La Malle integrated plant was also similarly targeted in December 2022 when around 200 activists stormed the site and caused damage to machinery and property. Lafarge’s response at the time was to remark that there was a feeling of misunderstanding given that the La Malle plant was piloting various decarbonisation methods.
All of this presents a febrile picture of the cement sector in France. Sales are down, electricity costs are set to go up and producers are switching to low-carbon cement products. Alongside this they are also closing clinker production plants but are also investing in new decarbonisation projects. At the same time environmental protestors have also been targeting cement and concrete plants and Lafarge’s association with its former actions in Syria appear to have made it more of a target than the other manufacturers. It is unsurprising then that Holcim, the parent company of Lafarge France, has raised the risk of damage to the group’s reputation, with both the general public and investors, should it fail to meet its targets. Reaching net zero was never going to be easy but setting unrealistic targets is increasingly not an option.

India: Shree Cement has begun construction of two new 3.5Mt/yr cement plants at Etah and Prayagraj in Uttar Pradesh. The Hindustan Times newspaper has reported that the projects represent the company’s delivery on a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Uttar Pradesh government, that it signed in February 2023. The producer aims to reach 9Mt/yr in installed capacity in Uttar Pradesh by February 2026, with estimated investments of US$241m. It currently operates a 2Mt/yr integrated cement plant at Bulandshahr.

The company said "The company’s 3.5Mt/yr plant in Etah is expected to be operational in the next 12 months, while another 3.5Mt/yr plant will be set up in Prayagraj, targeting production commencement in 24 months."

India: Dalmia Cement has launched new branding identifying itself as a Roof Column Foundation Expert. The identity is accompanied by the slogan ‘Roof, column, foundation strong, home strong.’ The company says that the branding will help it to position its cement as first choice in business-to-consumer (B2C) building materials retailing. The campaign especially targets towns of 20,000 – 100,000 people, outside of India’s metropolitan centres. The producer aims to raise its B2C sales from 65% to 70% in the 2025 financial year. It now operates a 45,000-strong retail network. In order to support further growth in the segment, the company plans to deploy 600 technical staff and 150 vans across India.

Chief operating officer Sameer Nagpal said “We believe that the brand must play a vital role in consumer’s lives so that they can make informed choices. Dalmia Cement has over the years developed proprietary know-how of optimising cement recipes that makes it most suitable for roof, column and foundation.”

Managing director and CEO Shri Puneet Dalmia said “Our new brand campaign manifests not just an eminent legacy, but also a commitment to consumer centricity – it conveys a core message that building a home with due care means building it for generations to come.”