Global Cement News

There were two telling stories from Vietnam this week that show the level to which demand has been overestimated in the centrally-planned cement sector. Firstly, the country reported that exports in the period between January and July 2014 increased by nearly a quarter year-on-year to 13.1Mt. Secondly, the Prime Minister announced that another five cement plant projects were to be axed, following nine others that bit the dust in 2013.

All this is against a backdrop of chronic lower-than-expected domestic cement demand. When we look at the figures, it’s not hard to see that domestic consumers have had trouble consuming all the cement produced in Vietnam. The government forecast for cement production in 2015 is in the region of 75 - 76Mt. If this was spread evenly between Vietnam’s 88.8m people, each person would have to consume ~850kg of cement. That’s possible but it is quite a lot for a lower middle income economy. However, separate reports state that a 10% rise in domestic sales on 2013 levels would lead to just 60Mt of domestic cement sales in 2015. This equates to a more realistic 675kg/capita.

These figures leave a massive and increasing amount of cement for export. Read again that figure from the first seven months of 2014 – 13.1Mt – Roughly the capacity of South Africa (~12.5Mt/yr), Tunisia (12.9Mt/yr) of Colombia (12.9Mt/yr)! Also, while cement exports volumes were up by nearly a quarter, the value of those same exports rose by only 20%. This indicates a drop in export prices and represents additional pressure to halt capacity expansion.

Against a backdrop of 90Mt/yr expected capacity in 2015 and falling export prices, the latest cement project cull certainly makes sense but even in a best-case scenario the country is looking at a capacity utilisation rate of just 66 - 67%. Some cement plant project owners have even found themselves trapped by the situation. Having indebted themselves on the promise of ever-increasing cement demand, they now face the prospect of throwing good money after bad, continuing to build and operate just to service debts. This is a very unenviable position indeed. The lifting of trade restrictions within the ASEAN Community on 1 January 2015 might help export volumes, but might also also drive prices down further.

Culling new cement plant projects is one thing, but could the next step be more drastic? North of the border, China is gradually reducing its overcapacity by removing older and less efficient capacity. Perhaps Vietnam would do well to follow suit.

China: The NDRC, China's price regulator, has fined three Chinese cement companies a combined amount of US$18.6m for engaging in a price monopoly. The three companies are Jilin Yatai Cement Sales Co, Northern Cement Co and Jidong Cement Jilin Co.

Nigeria/Dubai: The Investment Corp of Dubai (ICD) has bought a 1.4% stake in Nigeria's Dangote Cement for US$300m. Dangote Cement spokesman, Carl Franklin, confirmed the sale, but provided no further details.

Ecuador: Peru's UNACEM plans to invest US$58m in Condorcocha, Junin and Atocongo, San Juan de Miraflores in 2015, following US545m of investments in 2014. The sum will primarily be allocated to the acquisition of Lafarge's cement plant in Ecuador.

A total of US$374m will be invested in the Atocongo and Condorcocha plants between 2014 and 2018, with a focus on the cement mill, the development of the Carpapata III hydroelectricity project and the construction of bagging facilities in Condorcocha. UNACEM will invest US$939m over the next five years, while it anticipates sales of US$190m in 2014. The company expects its revenues to exceed US$200m form 2016 and projects a turnover of US$256m in 2020.

Pakistan: Kohat Cement Company Limited posted profits of US$30.9m for the year that ended on 30 June 2014, up by 20% year-on-year against US$25.8m. Cement sales increased to US$125m compared to US$111m in the same period of the previous year. Other income increased to US$2.60m from US$354,248 during the prior year.