The McCaffrey Disastergram uses the 'y' axis to show the likelihood of something happening, and the 'x' axis to show the magnitude of its effects, or the magnitude of change likely to occur.
The McCaffrey Disastergram is a qualitative representation of likelhoods and effects of future events. In general, less serious events happen more often, and more serious events less often (think meteor strikes), so that a number of event classes (natural disasters, pandemics etc) are represented as having more likely events that are less serious, and less likely events that are more serious. On the Disastergram, all forms of nuclear war (from 'localised' to global) are represented as having serious consequences.
The Disastergram depicts the likelhood and effects of natural disasters, depopulation, overpopulation, nuclear war, climate change, antibiotic resistance, insectageddon (collapse of insect populations), global financial meltdown, Brexit, water wars, epidemics, global cyberwar, EU collapse, US default, Chinese regime change, meteor strike, trade wars, general AI, energy storage advances, 'easy' fusion, a robot rebellion, the Singularity (uncontrollable and irreversable technological advance) and an alien invasion, as well as the sun rising, death, taxes and, in the Zone of Irrelevance, teenagers tidying their rooms (as an example of something unlikely to happen that really doesn't matter much whether it does or doesn't, in the scheme of things).
The McCaffrey Disastergram is not only for negative events, but also for positive: Disease cures are represented on the diagram, with less likely events (such as a 'silver bullet' to cure all forms of cancer) being shown to have greater effects, and vice versa.
The original McCaffrey Disastergram was invented to show the relative importance of a wide variety of potential future events in the world and specifically in the cement industry - for an article in Global Cement Magazine ('The global cement industry in 2050,' Robert McCaffrey, Global Cement Magazine, May 2019, pp10 - 18 - downloadable from here). Following a positive reception and requests for use of the diagram, the Disastergram is being made available for general use.
The graphics downloadable below are available for free use and the McCaffrey Disastergram can be customised for your own use. Copyright of the original Disastergram remains with the author, Robert McCaffrey.
Download high-resolution version of the McCaffrey Disastergram (PDF)
Download high-resolution version of the McCaffrey Disastergram (JPG)
Download high-resolution version of the McCaffrey Disastergram for the cement industry (PDF)
Download high-resolution version of the McCaffrey Disastergram for the cement industry (JPG)
