The 55th annual IEEE-IAS/PCA Cement Industry Technical Conference was held at the Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin Resort in Orlando, Florida, USA on 14 - 18 April 2013. The event attracted a total of 916 delegates from across the US and further afield who heard a total of 45 high-quality presentations and were able to visit 165 different exhibitors.
The 2013 IEEE-IAS/PCA conference opened on Sunday 14 April 2013 with closed meetings of the IEEE-IAS CIC Committee and commenced for other participants with an evening reception in the exhibition hall and events in the many exhibitor hospitality suites. On the following day delegates were able to take part in tutorials on drives, environment, energy, sustainability, automation, power generation and health and safety, many of which were over-subscribed. In the afternoon the exhibition area opened with exhibitors and delegates taking the opportunity to catch up with current suppliers and to make new contacts. In the evening further events were held in hospitality suites within the hotel well into the early hours.
Presentations - Day 1 - 16 April 2013
The first day of technical presentations started promptly at 08:00 on Tuesday 16 April 2013. A capacity hall heard first from Ted Richardson, the National Chair of the conference. Ted opened proceedings by urging those present to, "think how we can enhance humanity in our everyday actions," a comment prompted by the Boston Marathon bombings a day earlier.
Ted continued his welcome by thanking the conference committees, a total of over 60 volunteers, highlighted the advantages of the PCA and IEEE-IAS combining their advocacy efforts and urged delegates to make the most of the technical sessions on offer.
Ted was followed by Mark Mueller, Chair of the Orlando organising committee, who welcomed delegates to the conference technical sessions. He added his thanks to those of Ted Richardson, likening unseen volunteer efforts to Disney 'magic.'
The first technical presenter was David Zwicke, senior regional economist for the PCA. David provided an in-depth analysis of the PCA's recent cement forecast upgrade for the US and highlighted that the PCA was against common opinion in predicting an imminent upturn in US cement consumption. He noted that the PCA had routinely issued more negative (and correct) predictions in recent years than others, inferring that the association would not change its stance lightly and that cement demand would rise more rapidly and sooner than many may think.
He highlighted 16 months of continuous growth in cement demand and 9% growth in cement consumption in 2012, with 40 states registering an increase in cement use. He expects a similar pattern in 2013, with the private sector as a key driver. Private debt (as opposed to public debt) has fallen since 2008, meaning that higher levels of private capital should be available for residential and commercial building projects. Pent-up demand for construction between 2008 and 2013 will drive cement demand.
Giving the PCA's new forecast for 2013, David said that the first half would see sub-2% cement consumption growth across the US, the result of a 'hangover' from the Fiscal Cliff. In the second half, growth is expected to accellerate to over 3%.
As well as highlighting various factors that should encourage cement demand in the coming years, David urged cement producers not to accept the 'new normal' situation of low or no growth in the cement industry. He concluded that cement demand growth in the United States would be in the region of 8 - 9%/yr until 2016 and that volumes could reach 180Mt/yr by 2035 'barring external shocks.'
Following questions from the floor, David identified the central US states as those that would see the most significant cement demand growth. The east, he said, is exposed to the ill effects of the financial sector and is more dependent on events in the debt-laden EU, while the west built up an inventory of residential buildings during the previous boom.
From a global perspective
Second to the lecturn was Imran Akram of London-based IA Cement, who gave delegates a comprehensive breakdown of current trends in the global cement market and his detailed analysis of likely future scenarios in his presentation 'Cement 2013.'
Imran started by stating that the world produced around 3800Mt of cement in 2012 and that he expects this to rise by 4.2% to around 4000Mt in 2013. However, he highlighted that the growth rate in 2012 and the expected 2013 growth rate are both below decade-long averages of 5.4%/yr.
In the Americas, Imran said that increasing prices would drive profitability in the US cement industry, even with static demand growth. He echoed David Zwicke by stating that pent-up housing demand should be a strong factor in increasing demand. He painted a good picture for Brazil, with forthcoming Olympic and FIFA World Cup projects driving cement demand up by 5%. He saw Colombia as one of the region's most promising markets for 2013. He highlighted Argentina as a 'laggard' compared to its regional peers.
Imran continued by saying that Europe was nearing a 'lost decade' in terms of cement and that even the strongest economies like Germany were realising that isolation from weaker economies was not possible within the Eurozone. A 5% drop in cement demand is expected in Europe for 2013, similar to 2012. Greece, with another 11% drop in demand in 2013 was drawn out as the biggest regional 'laggard,' while Russia was highlighted as regional 'saviour.'
Imran tackled China and India together as he expects both to show 6-7% cement demand growth in 2013. He said that Chinese margins had eroded on the back of lower prices, while in India prices went up by 12% in 2013 amid weak demand. He highlighted corruption and inflation as major long-term barriers in India and speculated on Chinese domestic consumption as the main driver of global cement trade prices.
In the rest of Asia, Imran highlighted fresh government spending in countries like the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia. The Philippines is expected to see cement demand growth of 18% in 2013, while Myanmar was highlighted as a major potential cement market subject to continued reforms. Vietnam received 'laggard' status in this region.
In the Middle East and Africa, Imran highlighted Saudi Arabia as a country with a 'big-time' shortage of cement and gave figures that showed the massive overcapacity in the UAE. He mentioned Iraq as a major regional cement destination with new capacity likely to reduce its imports as reconstruction continues.
In Africa, Imran gave his view of the South African market, which he sees as hampered by mining strikes and power cuts. Despite this 4 - 5% growth in cement demand is expected for 2013. He highlighted east and west Africa as major future cement producing regions.
Imran went on to consider the top cement producing companies in 2012, which consisted of a combination of major multinationals and emerging Chinese producers. He explained that major Western producers were generally hampered by debt and that, on a world-wide basis, this was opening the cement industry to smaller players and to those from outside the industry. Cement, he concluded, is seen by many from outside the industry as a reliable and profitable industry to be involved in. He even mentioned an enquiry from a shrimp producer looking to enter the cement market!
Hot topics: Grinding and mercury
Four further papers were presented in the morning session. The first of these was given by Rick Bohan, director of manufacturing technology at the PCA, who provided extensive details of research carried out by the Concrete Sustainability Research Group at MIT.
Rick stated that producers want to grind clinker with the lowest energy use possible and highlighted the different energy requirements of alite (4MPa/m2 fracture resistance) and belite (10MPa/m2). Knowing and applying these values, he said, leads to a quantitative model that can be scaled upwards to cement clinker, rather than relying on empirical measurements as in the past. Rick said that this type of analysis reveals the true grinding energy - and traditional methods do not come out of the analysis well.
He suggested that knowing this could help to optimise the grinding process and pyroprocesses. He argued that a fundamental understanding of grinding energy requirements would be vital in the development of new cements.
Second of the four was Jonathan Forinton of A TEC America, who provided details of a new kiln bypass dust recycling technology that operates like a 'dust washing machine.' From bypass dust, sewage water, readily-available chemicals and plant waste heat, Jonathan described the recovery of cement raw material, potable water and high-purity salts, with almost 100% chloride removal. A 100kg/hr test-scale plant in Austria 'showed that the process has legs.' A 20,000t/yr is being installed elsewhere at present.
The third speaker was John Kline of John Kline Consulting, who provided an update on the US national emissions standards for hazardous air pollutants (NESHAP) rules, specifically with reference to mercury. John explained that the approach of treating cement kilns like power plants was not sufficiently sophisticated due to the higher number of inputs used. He described cement plants as 'mercury concentrators' that vary their mercury output massively depending on plant conditions and provided advice on mitigating the risks of elevated emissions.
The final morning speaker was Rex Keel of Cabot Norit Activated Carbon, who summarised several instances in which cement producers had lowered mercury emissions using his company's lignite-based carbon adsorbants.
Afternoon - Split sessions
In the afternoon the conference ran two concurrent sessions. Global Cement first attended a presentation on diagnosis of (potential) motor faults by vibration analysis by William Finley and Moheb Loutfi of Holcim. William laid out a methodology for analysis of vibrational 'give-aways' that could indicate future motor failure. He encouraged delegates not to try to minimise syptoms but to look at the root cause of excessive vibration. Moheb gave a detailed case-study in which William's methodology had been applied.
Ongoing maintenance of continuous monitoring systems for mercury was covered by Karl Wilber of Tekran Instruments Corp, who highlighted the need for accurate analysis before plants consider investment in further abatement technologies.
A novel ceramic filter for reduction of organic pollutants was described by Karsten Poulsen of FLSmidth. The system 'like a bag-house with ceramics instead of bags' has the potential to reduce hazardous organic pollutants, ammonia, NOx, SO2 and dust. Karsten described extensive tests with artificial gas / dust mixtures at high temperatures.
A novel concrete-based construction technique for US residential construction was presented by Scott Palmer of Salt River Materials Group. A demonstration house was constructed in Arizona 2009 and unveiled at Greenbuild 2009 in Pheonix, Arizona. The ready-made concrete panels cut construction costs and time compared to wood / gypsum wallboard constructions and had one of the highest LEED scores ever.
Waste heat recovery panel discussion
After the mid-afternoon break Global Cement attended a packed panel discussion on waste heat recovery (WHR) technologies for the cement industry, in which competing technologies were pitted against each other according to the requirements of a hypothetical cement plant.
Ali Amiri of North Dakota State University provided an introduction to WHR principles and the requirements of the hypothetical plant. The first of three representatives, Steve Miller of FLSmidth, provided an overview of the Kalina cycle, a WHR technique that uses a water/ammonia mixture as the working fluid. Miller described the operational advantages of the Kalina system, which include a variable boiling temperature, enhanced efficiency and the ability to change the system's temperature profile to match seasonal temperature variations. All plants are different, said Miller, but the Kalina cycle can be adapted to match most of them.
The second representative was Eric Rojas from Pratt and Whitney Power Systems, who presented the case for the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC). He provided a very detailed feasibility and cost analysis and highlighted the ability to work at low temperature and good partial load efficiency of the ORC as key benefits. He gave brief summaries of installations in Morocco and Romania.
The third and final representative was Ed Zdankiewicz of Echogen Power Systems LLC. Ed presented the various advantages of using super-critical CO2 as the working fluid for a WHR system, which include its non-toxic, non-corrosive and thermally-stable properties. He provided a stark comparison of the relative footprint sizes for Steam Rankine Cycle (SRC) and super-critical CO2-based WHR installations, with the SRC many times the size of the CO2 example. A further advantage identified by Ed was the ability of super-critical CO2 systems to combine waste heat from the clinker cooler and pre-heater tower into a single WHR unit.
Each representative gave a run-down of the operating efficiency, power output and size of their proposed installations, which prompted many questions, comments and disputes from the floor. In conclusion, WHR is an emerging field in the US (and in developed markets in general) but regulations are likely to change this in the future. It was unfortunate that suppliers of SRC systems were not represented in the discussion.
Following the afternoon session, delegates were again welcomed into the exhibition area for an evening reception. Once again, hospitality suites were open until the early hours.
Presentations - Day 2 - 17 April 2013
The second day of technical presentations was opened, again at 08:00 sharp, with an address from PCA Chairman Cary Cohrs. He welcomed delegates to Florida and provided an overview of the market in the state. He said that while the US cement industry is not in the best position at present, the PCA is moving forward with optimism based on rising oil prices that should boost concrete use in road maintenance and construction.
Cary spoke of the PCA's advocacy efforts through its partial movement to Washington, DC and the MIT Concrete Sustainability Hub, which he said would raise the profile of cement and concrete in the student and public conciousness. He also said that 'the greenest construction is the one still standing,' and that the PCA, producers and users should constantly highlight the durable nature of cement, concrete and concrete products. This, he said, is the philosophy of the PCA's ongoing 'Think Harder Concrete' campaign.
The conference then heard from Randy Kirchain of the MIT Materials Laboratory, who talked about the role of uncertainty in asessing future costs for (predominantly road) maintenance and reconstruction. Taking various road types, Randy showed that, through careful analysis of past costs, future road rehabilitation costs could be estimated within boundaries. Concrete, he concluded was often the best solution for this, given the rising and comparatively volatile cost of oil (and hence asphalt) relative to cement.
Popping the 'training bubble'
The joint morning session continued with a panel discussion 'Preparing for the training bubble,' that heard from Terry Ausman (ACT Inc.), Bob DiStefano (Management Resources Group Inc.) and Angela Tutino (Lafarge).
Terry set up the discussion with a summary of the US labour market and described that, through her company's extensive analysis, jobs with the same titles in cement plants place different requirements on workers. By closely analysing the needs of a given role, Terry said that cement companies had the potential to reduce staff turnover and make the most of their current 'youth,' while succesfully recruiting future workers to replace those approaching retirement.
Bob went a step further, analysing the industrial plant maintenance sector. Around 872,000 of the 5.4 million such workers (~16%) are expected to retire within 10 years. Replacing them, Bob said, is going to be 'not a small problem' due to the low number of entrants, a dearth of modern apprenticeship schemes and the complex nature of equipment in cement plants.
The final contributor was Angela Tutino. She described Lafarge's 'Blended Learning' approach to training, a multi-stranded training process incorporating live and virtual classrooms, on-the-job experience, peer-to-peer discussions and self-paced research and career development. The scheme, which started in 2011, has already been successfully implemented across several Lafarge plants. Angela's reaction to the training bubble? "Bring it on!"
Many questions and comments were again sourced from the floor, which gave ample opportunity for discussion among the three contributors.
Hot topics: Environmental regulation
After the panel discussion came two environmentally-flavoured papers. The first was from Al Linero from the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, who gave delegates a run-down of the continuous emissions monitoring required in Florida. In constrast to other states, Florida already has low limits for mercury. Although plants meet these most of the time, Al said that mercury emissions can rise to unacceptable levels when the raw mill is turned off. He said that the delay of MACT rule implementation until 2015 was 'very helpful.'
John Kline then stepped up for his second presentation of the conference, this time on selective catalytic reduction (SCR) for removal of NOx. He gave a history of SCR in the US cement industry and compared SCR to selective non-catalytic reduction (SNCR) in cement plants. While SCR can remove more NOx than SNCR it also represents a larger investment, is larger, has more downtime and is harder to retrofit. John provided several SCR case-studies from around the world, including in low and high dust environments. The first US SCR system for cement is currently being installed at the Lafarge Joppa plant in Illinois.
Roller grinding panel discussion
Following lunch the conference again split into two concurrent afternoon sessions. Global Cement first attended a panel discussion 'High pressure grinding roller technology for clinker grinding,' which had a set of hypothetical plant requirements and followed a similar format to that of the earlier WHR discussion.
Four detailed and competing cases were presented by Thomas Binninger (KHD), Thomas Hanstein (Köppern), Thomas Schmitz (ThyssenKrupp Polysius) and John Terembula (FLSmidth Inc). Several pertinent questions were asked once the cases had been made.
Carbon trading and regulations
A presentation on the California Climate Change Program was then given by Michael Stevens and John Bloom. Michael gave a summary of the programme, introduced in 2013, which will have three compliance phases for CO2 trading. Cement production will be affected from 2015. He said that the programme had so far had a muted response, with 2015 allocations not being sold yet.
John then provided more detail on how the cement industry would be treated by the programme. It will get an allocation based on factors like carbon leakage risks and capacity, with a benchmark against the worst 90% of the sector. As a commoditised industry, cement stands to benefit from a high leakage risk factor.
Carrie Yonley of Schreiber & Yonley Associates (Environmental Engineers) then sought bravely to summarise the plethora of US legislation regarding emissions from the cement indsutry in her 16 minute presentation. She underlined the importance of the RCRA rule that is used to determine whether or not cement plants are considered under the CISWI (incinerator) emissions rules by defining the fuels that a given cement plant uses. She described the many opportunities for conflict between different regulations, calling the CISWI rules as 'a square peg going into a round hole.'
A total of four further presentations were then held across the two sessions. These encompassed aspects of grinding media and modular building systems as well as two presentations on baghouse systems.
Farewell Banquet
Following the close of the technical sessions, delegates were welcomed to the neighbouring Epcot World ShowPlace Resort for the IEEE-IAS/PCA Banquet. Following a drinks reception in the 'world-themed' resort, delegates enjoyed dinner, during which Ted Richardson, National Chair of the conference, gave thanks to all chairs, speakers, exhibitors and other participants.
The winners of the best presentations were also announced. John Jerrels and Ken Walden were placed third for their presentation on contractor safety management. Rick Bohan and John Kline were awarded second place for their paper on MIT research into the fundamentals of clinker grinding. The best presentation, however, was judged to have been that of Greg Kemper, William Vilcheck and David Derocher on the subject of improving electrical workplace safety.
Following the awards, delegates were treated to the Epcot 'IllumiNations - Reflections of Earth,' fireworks display before music and dancing into the early hours at the Sponsorship Vendor Night.
Conclusion
The 55th IEEE-IAS/PCA Cement Industry Technical Conference was generally filled with a sense of cautious optimism regarding the future of the cement market in the US. This partly stems from the PCA's own forecast upgrade in February 2013 that sees significant gains over 2012 and a return to more 'normal' conditions. However, many of the delegates spoken to by Global Cement have begun to witness the upward trend in activity first hand. This, in turn, seems to have bouyed cement industry suppliers in the US market, especially those involved in novel technologies and environmental abatement and monitoring.
Delegates will surely be looking forward to the 56th IEEE-IAS/PCA Cement Industry Technical Conference, to be held in Washington, DC on 13 - 17 April 2014. See you there!