Brazil is the focus this week with the news that local sales reached 32.9Mt in the first half of 2026. The market is also facing change in its composition with the change in ownership of InterCement earlier in the year and the ongoing sale of CSN Cimentos.
Graph 1: Cement sales in Brazil, 2018 - June 2026. Source: National Cement Industry Union (SNIC)
The latest data from the National Cement Industry Union (SNIC) shows that cement sales rose by 2.3% year-on-year to 32.9Mt in the first half of 2026 from 32.1Mt in the same period in 2025. As can be seen in Graph 1 above, this is the largest first-half figure since at least 2018. There has been a general trend of sales growth in this time, from 52.8Mt in 2018 to 67Mt in 2025. 2026 as a whole looks reasonably likely to surpass this barring any market shocks. SNIC has identified the Minha Casa, Minha Vida (MCMV) house building programme as the main driver of sales. It says that it accounted for 50% of new real estate project launches in the first quarter of 2026 and created a 10% rise in sales. An expansion of the programme in April 2026 to higher income families and revised government house building targets are expected to generate an additional 5Mt of cement consumption. The union also mentioned that the increased use of rigid concrete pavement (whitetopping) road projects is likely to contribute to infrastructure-related cement sales.
Unfortunately, SNIC’s list of potential risks to the cement sector is weighty. Rising and volatile fuel costs in relation to geopolitical events are similar to the rest of the world. The local interest rate, the Selic rate, is not expected to fall as much as anticipated by the end of the year. Other local issues include a change in regulated working hours that is expected to push up labour costs when it becomes law in the second half of 2026. SNIC also flagged up the growing economic cost of online gambling upon household debt and the direct consequence of this upon the self-build sector. This issue has been part of a national debate in Brazil and stricter rules were expected to be implemented in mid-July 2026.
Clarity on the future of CSN Cimentos should start to emerge in mid-August 2026. The deadline for bids is on 7 August 2026. Then a contract might be signed in September 2026 with a potential buyer if all goes well. However, as reporting by Valor Econômico has revealed, there may be a gap between the price CSN wants for its cement division and what the potential buyers are prepared to pay. The vendor reportedly wants around US$2.5bn but potential bidders were expecting a lower price, nearer to US$2bn. This is an issue with the Chinese companies. China-based companies linked to the sale previously have included Anhui Conch, Huaxin Cement and Sinoma International. Local companies Votorantim and Polimix Concreto were linked to the sale previously but it is unknown whether they will make bids or not.
Regarding InterCement, a consortium led by LATCEM, Redwood Capital Management and Moneda Patria Investments took control in April 2026. The three companies also injected US$110m into the company during the process. In an interview in July 2026 Marcelo Mindlin, the controller of LATCEM, confirmed that the new management is preparing to divest Loma Negra. InterCement is currently the controlling shareholder of the Argentina-based cement company. He added that the consortium is still building its strategy for InterCement and working out which sections of the business offer the best return.
Finally, the government in Brazil announced preliminary plans for its carbon market in May 2026. Cement is set to be included in the first phase of the scheme that will start in 2027. The paper, iron and steel, aluminium, oil and gas, and air transport sectors will also be included. The scheme will include a four year preparation period where emissions monitoring is prepared, conducted and then allocations set. So, if the market continues in its proposed form, the local cement market might start facing carbon fees from 2031 onwards.
The current state of the cement market in Brazil is looking promising but it is delicate. It is understandable why CSN might be optimistic about the price it could get for selling its cement business given the sales figures so far in 2026. We’ll have to wait a few weeks to find out what the potential bidders think. The rise in cement sales may also have given the new management at InterCement an easy introduction to taking charge of the business before they have to take any tough decisions. Plans for a carbon market in Brazil mean that another major cement producing country is engaging with decarbonisation at the legislative level.
