With the UK going to the polls on 7 May 2015 in a general election what does this all mean for the local cement industry? Some of the main issues for a buoyant cement industry are market demand, energy costs and government interference through issues like taxation or restrictions on international trading.
Probably the first big problem facing the UK cement industry would be construction market uncertainty following any prolonged post-electoral negotiations. At the time of writing the polls predict that neither of the main political parties will be able to form a legislative majority without the formation of some sort of coalition with a number of minority parties. This also has relevance for eventual policy, so more on this later. Additional political deadlock might also arise from the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP), potentially the largest minority party, and their demands for further political devolution from the rest of the UK.
Following this, the main two political parties, the Conservatives and Labour, are fairly similar from their manifesto statements advocating deficit reduction, no major new taxes and a continuation of carbon emission targets. If either party gets in, general government should continue as before with major infrastructure projects carrying on as planned and an emphasis on the economy or public spending respectively.
Differences start to emerge with the Conservative Party, a centre-right group with a liberal economic agenda, promising a national referendum on continued membership of the European Union (EU) that could lead to Britain leaving the EU in a so-called Brexit. This could cause complications for businesses with strong European links such as the cement industry. However a 'Brexit' might not be all bad news for heavy energy users as they could potentially renegotiate their carbon emission targets.
Meanwhile, the Labour Party, a centre-left group, immediately takes a negative point since its current leader held a senior economic post in the Labour government in the build-up to the crash in 2008. Since that time three integrated cement plants in the UK have closed. Back to the current election, threats to reform the consumer energy markets might have knock-on effects for business consumers. However, traditionally the Labour Party encourages higher spending that might lead to more large-scale infrastructure projects like the much-maligned High Speed Two railway line from London to the north. These kinds of projects would need lots of cement.
If any of the other minority parties get to carry an influence in a coalition they may be able to influence certain policies as the price for their support. For example, a UKIP right-wing coalition would demand a EU referendum. A Green left-wing coalition would push for decarbonisation energy policies and/or anti-fracking measures. Both of these outcomes could have effects on cement production. The other issue that minority regional players in a coalition might have is concerning changes to cement plants in their part of the world. For example, threats to shut a cement plant in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland might then gain a higher profile to any administration that includes the SNP, the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland or Plaid Cymru in Wales.
In summary, it is easy to identify what the UK cement industry wants but far harder to determine what will happen after the election. Assuming there is a government that is! The country holds a mature cement industry with limited infrastructure opportunities. Barring real political change such as a Green surge it will be business as usual on 8 May 2015. Cement kilns will keep turning.
