Displaying items by tag: Vietnam

Vietnam: The Vietnam National Cement Corporation (VICEM) has reported that Vietnamese producers exported 13.6Mt of cement between 1 January 2020 and 31 May 2020, down by 1.4% year-on-year from 13.8Mt in the corresponding five months of 2019. Producers exported 7.07Mt of cement to China, up by 26% from 9.55Mt, 2.08Mt to the Philippines, down by 29% from 2.93Mt, and 1.36Mt to Bangladesh, down by 9.9% from 1.51Mt. The total value of exported cement fell by 14% to US$505m from US$590m.

Exports are the theme this week with news that the value of Turkey’s cement exports fell by 26% year-on-year in April 2020. Reporting from the Trend News Agency showed that the export market has been stable so far for the year to date, with some countries, like Kazakhstan, increasing exports and others, like France, decreasing exports. However the change in April may mark the start of a new trend.

As Tamer Saka, the chairman of the Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association (TÇMB), said earlier in the year, his country is one of biggest cement exporters in the world and among its most important markets are the US, Israel, Ghana and Ivory Coast. To look at one of these countries, United States Geology Survey (USGS) data shows that cement and clinker imports from Turkey to the US grew by 26% year-on-year to 1Mt for the first quarter of 2020 but that exports fell by 24% year-on-year to 0.11Mt in March 2020. Each of these countries is being affected in different ways by the coronavirus pandemic and at different times. Overall though, Saka’s and the TÇMB’s forecast in February 2020 that exports would rise by 15% year-on-year in 2020 is looking decidedly shaky. Any knock to the export market in Turkey is particularly unwanted given the poor state of the Turkish economy at the moment.

What would be useful to know here is how other major cement exporters are coping with the global situation. Data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics shows that Pakistan’s cement exports dropped by 31% year-on-year to 0.36Mt in April 2020. Data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) for the same month tells a similar story. Its data shows a 57% drop in exports to 0.25Mt in April 2020, with a bigger share lost by plants in the north of the country than those in the south.

The other country to note is Vietnam. Here, data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs shows that cement exports fell by 9.7% year-on-year to 7.73Mt in the first quarter of 2020. This follows the announcement by Vietnam Cement Association (VCA) chair Nguyễn Quang Cung in May 2020 that all cement plant projects scheduled to begin in 2020 would be suspended. Luckily those currently being built avoided this fate. This has included a new line at Thanh Thang Group Cement’s integrated Bong Lang cement plant, which Germany’s Loesche has just sent a pair of clinker mills to this week.

These changes from the major cement exporters are bad for their host countries but the other side of the chain is how their destinations are affected. For example, Australia’s clinker imports nearly doubled between 2010 – 2011 and 2018 – 2019 to 4.1Mt. This compares to local clinker production of 5.6Mt in 2018 – 2019, according to the Cement Industry Federation and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. With this in mind, this week saw the resolution to a legal dispute between Wagners Holdings and Boral over a cement supply contract. Boral found a cheaper source of cement from Cement Australia in early 2019 and the two parties argued over their contract. This dispute may have nothing to do with foreign import levels but Wagners Holdings, Boral and Cement Australia all operate standalone clinker grinding plants and will all be subject to general market pricing trends. Higher international clinker levels may add pressure to pricing issues surrounding cement supply contracts in Australia and elsewhere.

Finally, cement trade flows aren’t the only commodity that has been affected by coronavirus disruption. The mass movement of workers home and then back to work is expected to complicate India’s return to business, as discussed in last week’s column. In this context it’s pleasing to come across one sign of normality. Local press in Hubei, China reported this week that workers from Huaxin Cement finally flew back to Uzbekistan. They were originally meant to commission a new plant in March 2020 but became stranded at home when they returned for the Chinese New Year. Commissioning of the plant is now planned for later in June 2020.

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Germany/Vietnam: Loesche says that it has dispatched two LM 53.3+3 CS vertical roller mills from its plant in North Rhine-Westphalia for a new line at Thanh Thang Group Cement’s integrated Bong Lang cement plant. The mills have a combined capacity of 180t/hr and grind clinker to a fineness of 4000 Blaine. The new line, installed by Sinoma-NCDRI, will be commissioned in late-2021. Loesche will also supply two cellular wheel feeders, metal detectors and sealing air blowers.

Vietnam: Producers sold 29.2Mt of cement between 1 January and 30 April 2020, down by 7% year-on-year from 27.3Mt over the corresponding period of 2019. The Vietnam National Cement Corporation (VICEM) has reported that domestic sales fell by 4% to 19.3Mt (66% of total sales) and exports fell by 11% to 9.90Mt (34%), according to the Việt Nam News newspaper. April 2020 cement sales were just 8.08Mt, including 2.42Mt of exports, due to the effects of the coronavirus lockdown on cement demand from construction.

Vietnam: Lam Tach Cement has upgraded Kiln 1 of its integrated cement plant with a new Turbu-Flex burner supplied by FCT Combustion. The upgrade follows the successful installation of an FCT Combustion Turbu-Flex burner in Kiln 2 of the plant in late 2019.

Vietnam: Data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs shows that cement exports fell by 9.7% year-on-year to 7.73Mt in the first quarter of 2020. The value of these exports declined by 17.4% to US$301m, according to the Viet Nam News newspaper. Exports to China dropped by 5.4% to 2.73Mt, exports to the Philippines dropped by 27.5% to 1.47Mt, exports to Bangladesh dropped by 5.5% to 1.34Mt and exports to Taiwan dropped by 7% to 0.46Mt.

Vietnam: Vietnam Cement Association (VCA) chair Nguyễn Quang Cung has announced the suspension of all cement plant projects scheduled to begin in 2020. Cung said that oversupply and a lack of financial liquidity have made it unfeasible for cement producers to finish cement plant projects, according to Vietnam News Brief Service. The average cost of an integrated cement plant in Vietnam is US$194m.

Two projects - the 2.5Mt/yr Tan Thanh cement plant and 2.3Mt/yr Long Son cement plant - will be completed in 2020, bringing the domestic integrated production capacity of Vietnam to 106Mt/yr across 86 plants.

Vietnam: US-based FCT Combustion has published details of a new contract with Vietnam National Coal and Minerals Industry Holding Group (Vinacomin) for the supply of an FCT Turbo-Jet burner to Vinacomin’s 0.6Mt/yr La Hiên plant in Thái Nguyên province. The upgrade aims to enable the use of lower calorific coal while maintaining clinker strength and specific fuel consumption, in order to reduce fuel costs.

FCT Combustion previously provided burners at Vinacomin’s 0.8Mt/yr Quan Trieu cement plant in 2019 and 1.5Mt/yr Quang Son cement plant in 2020, both in Thái Nguyên province.

Vietnam: Data from the Ministry of Industry and Trade shows that clinker exports fell by nearly 40% year-on-year to 7.5Mt in the first quarter of 2020. Clinker export values dropped by 19% to US$360m in the same period, according to the Viet Nam News newspaper. Previously, the Ministry of Construction forecast that cement demand would increase by up to 5% to 103Mt in 2020 due to a recovery in the real estate market. Around a third of this was expected to be exported. Local consumption of cement and clinker grew by 2% year-on-year to 98Mt in 2019.

Announcements from two very different countries serve to highlight the global cement sector’s on-going and seemingly intractable overcapacity issues this week.

First up, India, the world’s largest democracy and second-largest cement market, will reportedly struggle to exceed 70% capacity utilisation in the forthcoming 2020-2021 fiscal year, according to the credit ratings agencies ICRA, India Ratings and Crisil. In the same week, however, we have heard that UltraTech Cement will launch a 3.5Mt/yr capacity expansion at its Bhogasamudam plant in Andhra Pradesh, while ACC committed to launching a 2.5Mt/yr plant in Chandrapur, Maharashtra early last week. In February 2020 Deccan Cements firmed up plans to expand its Mahankaligudem plant in Telengana and JSW wants to turn its Bilakalagudur plant into a 6Mt/yr beast. Back in January 2020. Shree Cement launched ambitious plans to spend US$1.3bn on upgrades in the period to 2023. With Indian capacity estimated to hit 500Mt/yr by the close of 2020, what do all of these producers know that ICRA et al don’t?

Second on the list is centrally-planned Vietnam, the world’s third-largest producer, having produced 96.5Mt of cement in 2019. Here, long-standing excessive capacity is looking increasingly ridiculous following a massive collapse in export sales in January and February 2020 due to the coronavirus outbreak. This, of course, continues to affect cement producers and users alike.

Just today, Nguyen Quang Cung, chairman of the Vietnam Cement Association (VNCA) said that demand is expected to remain high throughout 2020 as a whole. The Ministry of Construction (MoC) currently stands by its autumn 2019 forecast that Vietnam will produce a whopping 103Mt of cement this year. It expects domestic consumption to be around 70Mt, with exports of 33Mt. A 2.5Mt/yr plant in Tân Thắng Commune in the central province of Nghệ, and a 4.6Mt/yr plant in Bỉm Sơn Commune, Thanh Hóa, will come online in 2020, further adding to the country’s capacity. Exports were touted as the saviour of the sector back in January 2020. This assertion may now have to be revisited.

The drivers behind the overcapacity are different in each country. Indian producers have a long history of capacity addition in order to maintain or improve their market share. Standing still is tantamount to walking (or even running) backwards, so the biggest producers (and those that want to become big producers) tend to go ‘over the top’ with their expansion aims. Market forces eventually catch up with the smaller players, which find themselves bought up or shut down. This has the seemingly inevitable effect of maintaining low capacity utilisation rates.

In Vietnam, the overcapacity is due to central targets, which, as noted previously, are an entirely alien concept for cement producers across much of the rest of the world. As Vietnam’s obsession with high cement production has developed, it has become hooked on exports, entering a void recently vacated by Chinese exports. It often sells at scarcely-believable prices and now, with the introduction of the coronavirus into the mix, even these seem to be too high. After all, Vietnam’s cement association cannot ‘set targets’ for cement demand in other countries.

So… how to reduce capacity? There are two examples, again from different types of market. China has, of course, reduced its overcapacity massively to eliminate outdated capacity and improve the country’s environmental performance. This has been possible due to orders from the top of government. The other example can be found in Europe, where the EU Emissions Trading Scheme has finally found its teeth, with the oldest and least efficient plants now feeling the financial bite of their CO₂ emissions.

It remains to be seen whether the collapse of the export market will force the Vietnamese cement sector to rationalise its inventory. From a market-based mindset it is clear that it should follow China’s lead. India, meanwhile, has a massive overcapacity that market forces seem slow (or indeed unable) to clear. The EU route may be more applicable here, but one might expect resistance from cement producers. Also, the development and demographic differences between India and Europe are stark, indicating that there may be a need, at some point in the future, for 500Mt/yr of capacity. The Indian majors are counting on this and laying the groundwork for a step-change in the future. Indeed, in a few years, 500Mt/yr may look vanishingly small if demand increases rapidly. What are the chances of that?