Displaying items by tag: Vietnam

Several of South Africa’s cement and concrete producers joined up in early March 2021 to form an industry association called Cement & Concrete SA (CCSA). The Concrete Institute, Concrete Society of Southern Africa and the Association of Cementitious Material Producers established the organisation to, “take the lead on all matters relating to cement and concrete in South Africa.” Setting up an organisation like this takes time and it fits with the move in recent years of thinking about the whole building materials chain rather than just focusing on one part. The country is also in the first phase of its carbon tax and no doubt producers feel they need to make a renewed effort to fight their corner. Other aspects such as promoting the ‘value creation story’ of the cement and concrete industry in South Africa, research and training also makes sense.

The timing here is compelling due to the ongoing review of anti-dumping measures that were levied by the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC) upon imports by Pakistan-based cement producers. Local media in South Africa reported that ITAC started reviewing the tariffs in December 2020 in a process expected to take up to 18 months in duration. As reported in January 2021 (GCW 489), imports to the country fell after ITAC introduced tariffs in 2015 but they have started to edge up since then, particularly from producers in other countries such as Vietnam and China. Separately, the CCSA may have scored an early victory with the news that its application that government-based infrastructure projects should only use locally-produced cement was working its way through the government.

Looking at the general market, PPC reported ‘muted’ sales of cement in April and May 2020 due to the country’s first coronavirus-related lockdown from late March 2020. Similar to some other countries, construction projects halted and cement plants stopped producing. However, the market bounced back as the restrictions were relaxed with strong sales from June 2020 to September 2020 for the leading producer. It noted that the increase in volumes was mainly due to consumer retail although it noted that government infrastructure cement demand was also starting to be felt. PPC’s cement sales volumes fell by 5 – 10% in South Africa and Botswana from April to June 2020 but then rose by 20 – 25% from July to September 2020. The continuation of this sales momentum was also noted in October and November 2020. Dangote Cement’s operations in the country reported a similar situation, with sales up by 7% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2020 due to a surge in home improvement related demand after the first lockdown ended. Similar to PPC, it reckoned that demand increased by 25 - 30% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2020 as limitations in travel and entertainment led to some people saving money instead.

After the summer sales bounce, producers were soon complaining about rising import levels in the autumn of 2020 with volumes catching up with the amounts recorded in 2019. Hence the ITAC review is a timely reminder of the perils facing local producers.

South Africa’s general coronavirus experience has been an outlier compared to the rest of Africa with higher cases and deaths reported. Yet, it’s still reported lower per capita rates than many comparable countries in Europe and the Americas. Like the UK and Brazil, the country also holds the dubious distinction of having a coronavirus variant named after it. Its cement market appeared to snap back with pent up demand following the lifting of restrictions in common with other countries that implemented tougher public health rules. At which point the importers caught up again a few months later. The effects of South Africa’s second wave of coronavirus led to a lockdown in late December 2020. The effects upon building materials sales are likely to be less drastic than previously because this lockdown has had lighter restrictions compared to March 2020. Surrounded by all of this, the CCSA has sure picked a busy time to start work.

Guatemala: Local cement producers have expressed concern over the quality of rising imports from Asia. Issues over quality standards and packaging have been raised, according to the El Periódico newspaper. According to data from the Bank of Guatamala, cement imports worth around US$57m were reported in the first 11 months of 2020. Imports from Turkey and Vietnam represented 85% of this. The country has a cement production capacity of 5.5Mt/yr and domestic consumption is around 3Mt/yr.

Thailand: SCG’s revenue from its cement division fell by 7% year-on-year to US$5.7bn in 2020. However, its earnings before interest, taxation, deprecation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose by 3% to US$719m. It blamed falling sales on the coronavirus pandemic and a ‘challenging’ economy but said that it managed to raise earnings and profits through efficiency improvements and a lower production costs. In the fourth quarter of 2020 the business faced resurgent coronavirus outbreaks and flooding in Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia. Overall, the group’s revenue fell by 9% to US$13.3bn with declines in most division apart from packaging.

Cement imports were one of the themes in this week’s news, with stories on the topic from South Africa and Ukraine. The former concerned the latest chapter in that industry’s saga on slowing down imports. The International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) has started a review on tariffs imposed on cement from Pakistan that were introduced in 2015.

Local producers in South Africa have experienced mixed fortunes since 2015, such as PPC and AfriSam’s failed merger attempt or the introduction of a local carbon tax, and were starting to complain again about imports even before the effects of coronavirus in 2020. This led the Concrete Institute to lobby ITAC in 2019 about rising imports from other nations, principally Vietnam and China.

Back in 2013 cement imports from Pakistan to South Africa were 1.1Mt. This represented the vast majority of all imports to the country. Tariffs of 14 – 77% were imposed on Pakistan-based exporters in mid-2015, initially for six months, but this was then extended. Roughly a year later in mid-to-late 2016, Sephaku Holdings said that imports of cement had ‘significantly’ declined on a year-on-year basis, particularly from Pakistan. By the end of June 2016 approximately 0.16Mt had been imported compared to 0.5Mt in the previous period. However, it noted that 75% of the volume was from China. Since then imports started to creep up. Cement imports reportedly rose by 84% year-on-year in 2018 and then by 11% in 2019. Data from construction industry data company Industry Insight suggests that Vietnam accounted for 70% or 0.47Mt of the 0.68Mt of cement imported into South Africa in the first nine months of 2020. The remaining 30% or 0.20Mt came from Pakistan. In this kind of environment it seems unlikely that ITAC will do anything other than extend tariffs.

Meanwhile in the northern hemisphere, in Ukraine this week a court in Kiev dismissed a challenge by the Belarusian Cement Company to remove cement import tariffs from Russia, Belarus and Moldova that were introduced in mid-2019 for five years. Notably, a law firm representing Dyckerhoff Cement Ukraine, HeidelbergCement Ukraine, Ivano-Frankivsk Ukraine and CRH subsidiary Podilsky Cement commented favourably upon the court’s decision to uphold tariffs. These producers form UKRCEMENT, the association of cement producers of Ukraine. However, the association doesn’t include Russia-based Eurocement, which operates Ukraine’s largest cement plant at Balakleya. Relations have been poor between Russia and Ukraine since a war between the countries that started in 2014. So any trade tariffs implemented upon Russia and/or Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) members will inevitably carry the whiff of geopolitics. Yet, in Ukraine’s defence, it also started an anti-dumping investigation into cement imports from Turkey in September 2020. Nationalism may be relevant but let’s not discount hard-nosed economics just yet.

Turkey’s involvement in Ukraine leads to last week’s presentation at Global Cement Live by Sylvie Doutres, DSG Consultants on cement and clinker trade in and out of the Mediterranean region. Readers can watch the presentation here but the headline story here was the trend of reducing exports away from southern European countries such as Spain, Italy and Greece, to greater exports from North African countries and Turkey over the last decade. Turkey particularly has pushed its share of exports even more in 2020 despite (or perhaps because of) a tough domestic market. The general trend here away from southern Europe has been blamed on European Union-based (EU) producers becoming less competitive often against newer plants in nearby countries.

Battles between producers and government tariff policies are a perennial feature of any market in commodities such as cement. The ebb and flow of import and export markets cover many factors including production costs, distribution networks, tariff structures and more. Distinctive features of cement trading, for example, are the high cost of transporting heavy building materials over land and the world’s chronic cement production overcapacity. In the EU’s case one reason that often gets blamed is the emissions trading system (EU ETS) and the mounting cost it is imposing upon cement production. For example, today’s story that Holcim España wants to convert its integrated Jerez plant into a grinding unit has been blamed on falling exports and a reduction in ETS credits. It is noteworthy then that the EU ETS rate breached the Euro30/t level in December 2020. This may be good news for the sustainability lobby but the exodus of exports away from Southern Europe tells its own story. What form the EU ETS carbon border adjustment mechanism takes as part of the EU Green Deal will be watched closely by producers both inside and outside the EU.

Global Cement Live continues on 21 January 2021 with Kevin Rudd, Independent Cement Consultants, presenting 'Independent or third party factory acceptance testing of major cement plant equipment and critical spare parts and the challenges of Covid’

South Africa: The International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) started a ‘sunset’ review in December 2020 of import tariffs imposed on cement from Pakistan. The investigation will last up to 18 months, according to Moneyweb. Existing anti-dumping duties, which were first implemented in 2015, will remain in place during proceedings.

The review by ITAC follows lobbying by the Concrete Institute (TCI) in 2019 to add additional protection against imports of cement from other countries like Vietnam. Construction industry data company Industry Insight reports that Vietnam accounted for 70% or 0.47Mt of the 0.68Mt of cement imported into South Africa in the first nine months of 2020. The remaining 30% or 0.20Mt came from Pakistan.

Vietnam: The Vietnam National Cement Association (VNCA) says that the average cement production of each integrated cement plant is 2.2Mt/yr. It alleges this is the lowest output in the Southeast Asian region, according to the Viet Nam newspaper. It further explained that 70% of the country’s plants produce less than 1Mt/yr of cement, accounting for 20% of the total output.

Vietnam: The Vietnam National Cement Corporation (VICEM) aims to increase cement production by 1% year-on-year to 22Mt in 2021. The Viet Nam News newspaper has reported that the company is targeting a sales increase of 7% to US$1.5bn and a profit increase of 13% to US$99m. The company says that it expects domestic cement consumption to rise by 5% to 30Mt.

The group has set out six solutions by which to achieve its goals: continue to ‘optimise and improve production capacity’ through promoting research and application of advanced science and technology, focus on ‘investment in depth,’ reduce consumption, use resources economically and reduce environmental impacts throughout the supply chain.

VICEM chair Bui Hong Minh said, “Implementing the comprehensive restructuring project of the corporation in the period of 2019 - 2025 approved by the Ministry of Construction, VICEM is focussing on promoting innovation and creativity to bring new development space and motivation to the Bim Son Cement unit in particular and the cement industry in general.”

In 2020 VICEM increased its full-year profit by US$30m.

Vietnam: Vietnamese cement export growth is forecast to slow in 2021. The Viet Nam News newspaper has reported on research by SSI Research that expected exports to remain stable due to high infrastructure spending in China, but that growth is unlikely due to the full recovery of Chinese domestic cement supply in 2020. SSI Research forecasts a total 2021 cement and clinker sales growth of 2% year-on-year to 104Mt from 102Mt. It predicts a 5% - 7% increase in domestic sales. The country’s installed cement production capacity is due to rise by 7% or 7Mt in early 2021.

Philippines: The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) has raised the import duty per 40kg bag of cement to US$0.20 from US$0.19. The Manila Bulletin newspaper has reported that the department issued the administrative order following a petition from the Cement Manufacturers Association of the Philippines (CeMAP). The petition suggested a US$0.25/bag levy as an effective means to maintain domestic cement production. The association has blamed growing imports on a surplus in countries such as Vietnam.

The DTI previously imposed tariffs on imported cement for three year from October 2019 with a staggered reduction in the duty. However, the DTI said it would review the safeguard measure in order to modify the rate as it deemed necessary.

Vietnam: The General Statistics Office (GSO) has estimated total domestic cement production in the first eleven months of 2020 of 90.0Mt, up by 3.4% year-on-year from 87.0Mt in the corresponding period of 2019. The Viet Nam News newspaper has reported that November 2020 production reached 9.1Mt, up by 4.6% year-on-year from 8.7Mt in November 2019.

In 2019 Vietnam’s full-year cement production rose by 7.9% to 96.5Mt.