Displaying items by tag: Vietnam

Vietnam: Data from the Building Materials Department of the Ministry of Construction show that cement exports rose by 0.9% year-on-year to 8.55Mt in the first quarter of 2019. They had a value of US$865m, according to data from the Viet Nam News newspaper.

One of the long running trends in the cement industry is that of production overcapacity. Sure enough more than a few news stories this week covered this, as various players reacted to international trade in clinker and cement. The Bangladesh Cement Manufacturers Association wants its government to cut import duties on clinker. Algeria’s shift from an importing cement nation to an exporting one continues.

Armenia and Afghanistan are coping with influxes of cement imports from neighbouring Iran. Pakistan’s cement exporters, who have been losing ground in Afghanistan, are once again lobbying to remove anti-dumping measures in South Africa. The argument between Hard Rock Cement and Arawak Cement in Barbados may have swung Hard Rock Cement’s way as the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) has ruled in favour of lower tariffs for imports. Last week it was reported that the Rwanda Bureau of Standards had blocked cement imports from Uganda on quality requirement grounds.

The summarised version is that all this excess clinker and cement can cause arguments and market distortions as it finds new markets. Typically, the media reports upon the negative side of this, when the representatives of national industries defend their patch and speak out about ‘quality concerns,’ potential job losses and blows to the local economy. However, it isn’t always like this as the Afghan story shows this week. Here, although the Chamber of Commerce and Industries wants to promote locally produced cement, imports are welcome and the relative merits of different sources are discussed. Ditto the situation in Bangladesh where a predominantly grinding-based industry naturally wants to cut its raw material costs.

We’ve covered clinker and cement exports more than a few times, most recently in September 2018 when the jaw-dropping scale of Vietnam’s exports in 2018 started to become clear. Yet as the continued flow of news stores this week makes clear it’s a topic that never grows old.

Graph 1: Top cement exporting countries in 2018. Source: International Trade Centre.

Looking globally raises a number of issues. First, a warning. The data in Graph 1 comes from the International Trade Centre (ITC), a comprehensive source of trade statistics. Most of its figures are in line with data from government bodies and trade associations but its export figure is around a tenth of the estimated export figure for Iran of around 13Mt for its 2018 - 2019 year. Last time this column looked at exports similar issues were noted with a discrepancy between Vietnam’s exports from the ITC compared to government data.

Iran aside, all the usual suspects are present and correct. A point of interest here is that the list is a mixture of countries that make the headlines for their exports, like Vietnam, and those that are quietly just getting on with business. Japan for example exported 10.7Mt in 2018. More telling are the changes in exports from 2017 to 2018. Exports fell in Japan, China and Spain. They rose in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan and South Korea.

Looking globally, China is the elephant in the room in this topic given its apparent massive production overcapacity. The industry here is structurally unable to export cement on the scale of other countries but, as its major companies expand internationally, this may change. Despite this China still managed to be the third biggest exporter of cement to the US in 2018 at 2Mt and the fifth biggest in the world. Yet, as the ITC data shows, its exports fell by 30% year-on-year to 9Mt in 2018.

Vietnam, Pakistan and Turkey continue to be some of the key exporting nations with production capacities rising in defiance of domestic realities. Pakistan, for example, is coming off a building boom from the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor infrastructure project and all those plants are now looking for new markets. Vietnam says it is benefitting from industry consolidation in China. Its exports grew by 55% year-on-year rise to 31.6Mt. It shipped 9.8Mt to China in 2018. Its main export markets in 2019 are expected to be the Philippines, Bangladesh, China, Taiwan and Peru. Turkey, meanwhile, struggled with general economic issues in 2018. Its cement exports fell by 6% to 7.5Mt in 2018 according to Turkish Cement Manufacturers Association data. Once again this is at odds with ITC data, which reports nearly twice as many exports.

This touches the tip of the iceberg of a big issue but while production over-capacity continues these kinds of trade arguments will endure. Vietnam, for example, may be enjoying supplying cement in China as that country scales down production. Yet, what will happen to all of those Vietnamese plants once Chinese consumption stabilises?! Similar bear traps lie in wait for the other major exports. Alongside this many of the multinational cement companies are pivoting to concrete production. This may be in recognition of the fact that in a clinker-abundant world profits should be sought elsewhere in the supply chain. A topic for another week.

For an overview of some of these themes and more read Dr Robert McCaffrey’s article ‘The Global Cement Industry in 2050’ in the May 2019 issue of Global Cement Magazine and his forthcoming keynote presentation at the 61st IEEE-IAS/PCA Cement Conference 2019 at St Louis in Missouri, US.

Vietnam: A 8.36% rise in electricity prices in late March 2019 is set to cause an increase in the price of cement. The Vietnam Cement Industry Corporation (VICEM) said that cement producers had also been hit by an increase in coal prices, according to the Vietnam News Agency. The rise in the price of coal follows a lack of supply from the Vietnam National Coal and Minerals Industry Holding Group (VINACOMIN) leading to producers to import coal. Cong Thanh Cement has not raise its retail prices but has charged distributors more. Nguyen Quang Cung, chairman of the Vietnam Cement Association, said that producers were not surprised by increase in electricity prices and had been preparing for it.

Vietnam: Xuan Thanh Cement has ordered a new production line for a plant in Ha Nam province from Denmark’s FLSmidth for around Euro74m. FLSmidth will design and engineer the new clinker production line and deliver equipment for the entire production from crushing to clinker silo. The order is due to be fully delivered by the end of 2020, and, once operational the production line will have a capacity of 12,500t/day. In 2015, Xuan Thanh Cement placed a similar order for a production line that has been operating since 2017.

Philippines: The Cement Importers Association of the Philippines (CIAP) has defended cement imports from Vietnam. In a statement the association said that all legally imported cement sold in the Philippines met the required standards, according to the BusinessWorld newspaper. It made the comment in response to media reports that ‘substandard’ Vietnam-sourced cement was saturating the market.

CIAP said that the controls imposed by the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) were tougher for imported cement than for locally produced cement. Local manufacturers are audited once per year compared to checks for every batch of imported cement. The DTI said it was going to impose a provisional tariff on imported cement in early 2019.

Panama: The Ministry of Commerce and Industries (MICI) is planning to introduce regulations testing cement imports for Hexavalent chromium (chromium VI). Edgar Arias, Director of Standards and Industrial Technology of the MICI, said at a trade forum that the new rules had been agreed, according to La Estrella de Panamá newspaper. At present cement is tested at the discretion of the importer. Under the new regulations cement will be tested before it leaves its country of origin, when it arrives in Panama and for a third time at the point of sale at the discretion of the authorities.

Panama imports 10,000 – 20,000t/month of cement from countries including China, Turkey and Vietnam. Around 20 importers handle the market. Import tax on cement ranges from 10 – 20% depending on the point of origin.

Vietnam: The Ministry of Construction says that demand for cement and clinker is expected to increase slightly to up to 99Mt in 2019. This will consist of 70Mt locally and 29Mt of exports, according to the Vietnam News Agency. Demand grew by 19% year-on-year to 96.7Mt in 2018, with growth driven by a 55% rise in exports to 31.6Mt. It shipped 9.8Mt to China in 2018. The main export markets in 2019 are expected to be the Philippines, Bangladesh, China, Taiwan and Peru.

South Africa: The Concrete Institute says that the International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) should impose a temporary ban on cement imports to protect the local industry. The institute is preparing an application to the commission, according to the Business Daily newspaper. Bryan Perrie, its managing director, said that imports from Pakistan dropped in 2016 after tariffs were introduced. However, this has been replaced by imports from China and Vietnam. He added that prices have dropped ‘drastically,’ especially in coastal areas, that this is starting to effect jobs and cement producers are delaying expansion plans. The Concrete Institute represents PPC, AfriSam, Lafarge Africa, Sephaku and Natal Portland Cement.

Vietnam: Italy’s Bedeschi has signed a contract to supply a double roller crushing unit and relevant control panels for the Quicklime Plant being built in Hoa Binh, Northern Vietnam. The unit is being built by a local cement producer. Start-up is scheduled by mid-2020.

The Bangladeshi cement industry has been busy over the last month. Both Vietnam and Iran have marked up the country as a major destination for their exports. No change there, but Saudi Arabia has also started to join them as its producers have started announcing clinker export deals to the country. Alongside this there have also been production upgrades announced from MI Cement, Chhatak Cement and a Saudi-led partnership. Also, just before Christmas, Shah Cement inaugurated the world’s largest vertical roller mill (VRM) with a 8.1m grinding table, supplied by Denmark’s FLSmidth, at its Muktarpur plant in Munshiganj.

Md Shahidullah, vice president of the Bangladesh Cement Manufacturers Association (BCMA), described 2018 as a good year for the local industry to local media. Cement sales rose to 33Mt and consumption grew by 12% year-on-year.

The country has an integrated production capacity of 8.4Mt/yr from eight plants according to Global Cement Directory data. The main plants are Chhatak Cement and Lafarge Surma Cement. Locally produced clinker accounts for about 20% of the country’s needs, with the other 80% imported from abroad. Hence, the action is really with the grinding plants and the country has over 30 of them. A market report by EBL Securities in mid-2017 reckoned that local cement production capacity was 40Mt/yr but that actual production was around 32Mt in the 2016 - 2017 reporting year due to problems with power supplies and so on. Given the focus on grinding it’s interesting to note imports of clinker. These rose by 9% year-on-year to a value of US$518m in 2017 - 2018, the highest figure since 2014 - 2015. Not all of this may be consumption related since the local currency, the Taka, depreciated against the US dollar in 2017 and 2018.

Back in 2016 the market leaders were Shah Cement, LafargeHolcim Bangladesh, Bashundhara Group, Seven Rings Cement and HeidelbergCement. They accounted for about half of the market share. Of these LafargeHolcim Bangladesh saw its revenue nearly double year-on-year to US$101m from US$58m in the first half of 2018. Its profit did double to US$6.3m from US$2.7m. The company is a joint venture between LafargeHolcim, Spain’s Cementos Molins and other partners.

Bangladesh suits a grinding-based industry due to its high level of navigable waterways and low levels of limestone. In some respects though the country is a glimpse of what future cement markets might look like. Its lack of raw materials means it focuses on grinding and a clinker-rich world plays right into this. This creates an oversaturated market full of lots of companies due to the lower cost of setting up a grinding business or cement trading. In theory this should be great for end consumers and the general development of the country. After all Bangladesh has a high population, of 164 million, and a low gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, US$4561, and similarly low per capita consumption of cement. The downside though is that reliance on external raw materials. Any changes to exchange rates or material supply puts the entire industry at risk or puts prices in flux. In the meantime though the interest by Saudi exporters adds an interesting dynamic to a crowded market.