Displaying items by tag: Vietnam

Vietnam: Producers sold 29.2Mt of cement between 1 January and 30 April 2020, down by 7% year-on-year from 27.3Mt over the corresponding period of 2019. The Vietnam National Cement Corporation (VICEM) has reported that domestic sales fell by 4% to 19.3Mt (66% of total sales) and exports fell by 11% to 9.90Mt (34%), according to the Việt Nam News newspaper. April 2020 cement sales were just 8.08Mt, including 2.42Mt of exports, due to the effects of the coronavirus lockdown on cement demand from construction.

Vietnam: Lam Tach Cement has upgraded Kiln 1 of its integrated cement plant with a new Turbu-Flex burner supplied by FCT Combustion. The upgrade follows the successful installation of an FCT Combustion Turbu-Flex burner in Kiln 2 of the plant in late 2019.

Vietnam: Data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs shows that cement exports fell by 9.7% year-on-year to 7.73Mt in the first quarter of 2020. The value of these exports declined by 17.4% to US$301m, according to the Viet Nam News newspaper. Exports to China dropped by 5.4% to 2.73Mt, exports to the Philippines dropped by 27.5% to 1.47Mt, exports to Bangladesh dropped by 5.5% to 1.34Mt and exports to Taiwan dropped by 7% to 0.46Mt.

Vietnam: Vietnam Cement Association (VCA) chair Nguyễn Quang Cung has announced the suspension of all cement plant projects scheduled to begin in 2020. Cung said that oversupply and a lack of financial liquidity have made it unfeasible for cement producers to finish cement plant projects, according to Vietnam News Brief Service. The average cost of an integrated cement plant in Vietnam is US$194m.

Two projects - the 2.5Mt/yr Tan Thanh cement plant and 2.3Mt/yr Long Son cement plant - will be completed in 2020, bringing the domestic integrated production capacity of Vietnam to 106Mt/yr across 86 plants.

Vietnam: US-based FCT Combustion has published details of a new contract with Vietnam National Coal and Minerals Industry Holding Group (Vinacomin) for the supply of an FCT Turbo-Jet burner to Vinacomin’s 0.6Mt/yr La Hiên plant in Thái Nguyên province. The upgrade aims to enable the use of lower calorific coal while maintaining clinker strength and specific fuel consumption, in order to reduce fuel costs.

FCT Combustion previously provided burners at Vinacomin’s 0.8Mt/yr Quan Trieu cement plant in 2019 and 1.5Mt/yr Quang Son cement plant in 2020, both in Thái Nguyên province.

Vietnam: Data from the Ministry of Industry and Trade shows that clinker exports fell by nearly 40% year-on-year to 7.5Mt in the first quarter of 2020. Clinker export values dropped by 19% to US$360m in the same period, according to the Viet Nam News newspaper. Previously, the Ministry of Construction forecast that cement demand would increase by up to 5% to 103Mt in 2020 due to a recovery in the real estate market. Around a third of this was expected to be exported. Local consumption of cement and clinker grew by 2% year-on-year to 98Mt in 2019.

Announcements from two very different countries serve to highlight the global cement sector’s on-going and seemingly intractable overcapacity issues this week.

First up, India, the world’s largest democracy and second-largest cement market, will reportedly struggle to exceed 70% capacity utilisation in the forthcoming 2020-2021 fiscal year, according to the credit ratings agencies ICRA, India Ratings and Crisil. In the same week, however, we have heard that UltraTech Cement will launch a 3.5Mt/yr capacity expansion at its Bhogasamudam plant in Andhra Pradesh, while ACC committed to launching a 2.5Mt/yr plant in Chandrapur, Maharashtra early last week. In February 2020 Deccan Cements firmed up plans to expand its Mahankaligudem plant in Telengana and JSW wants to turn its Bilakalagudur plant into a 6Mt/yr beast. Back in January 2020. Shree Cement launched ambitious plans to spend US$1.3bn on upgrades in the period to 2023. With Indian capacity estimated to hit 500Mt/yr by the close of 2020, what do all of these producers know that ICRA et al don’t?

Second on the list is centrally-planned Vietnam, the world’s third-largest producer, having produced 96.5Mt of cement in 2019. Here, long-standing excessive capacity is looking increasingly ridiculous following a massive collapse in export sales in January and February 2020 due to the coronavirus outbreak. This, of course, continues to affect cement producers and users alike.

Just today, Nguyen Quang Cung, chairman of the Vietnam Cement Association (VNCA) said that demand is expected to remain high throughout 2020 as a whole. The Ministry of Construction (MoC) currently stands by its autumn 2019 forecast that Vietnam will produce a whopping 103Mt of cement this year. It expects domestic consumption to be around 70Mt, with exports of 33Mt. A 2.5Mt/yr plant in Tân Thắng Commune in the central province of Nghệ, and a 4.6Mt/yr plant in Bỉm Sơn Commune, Thanh Hóa, will come online in 2020, further adding to the country’s capacity. Exports were touted as the saviour of the sector back in January 2020. This assertion may now have to be revisited.

The drivers behind the overcapacity are different in each country. Indian producers have a long history of capacity addition in order to maintain or improve their market share. Standing still is tantamount to walking (or even running) backwards, so the biggest producers (and those that want to become big producers) tend to go ‘over the top’ with their expansion aims. Market forces eventually catch up with the smaller players, which find themselves bought up or shut down. This has the seemingly inevitable effect of maintaining low capacity utilisation rates.

In Vietnam, the overcapacity is due to central targets, which, as noted previously, are an entirely alien concept for cement producers across much of the rest of the world. As Vietnam’s obsession with high cement production has developed, it has become hooked on exports, entering a void recently vacated by Chinese exports. It often sells at scarcely-believable prices and now, with the introduction of the coronavirus into the mix, even these seem to be too high. After all, Vietnam’s cement association cannot ‘set targets’ for cement demand in other countries.

So… how to reduce capacity? There are two examples, again from different types of market. China has, of course, reduced its overcapacity massively to eliminate outdated capacity and improve the country’s environmental performance. This has been possible due to orders from the top of government. The other example can be found in Europe, where the EU Emissions Trading Scheme has finally found its teeth, with the oldest and least efficient plants now feeling the financial bite of their CO₂ emissions.

It remains to be seen whether the collapse of the export market will force the Vietnamese cement sector to rationalise its inventory. From a market-based mindset it is clear that it should follow China’s lead. India, meanwhile, has a massive overcapacity that market forces seem slow (or indeed unable) to clear. The EU route may be more applicable here, but one might expect resistance from cement producers. Also, the development and demographic differences between India and Europe are stark, indicating that there may be a need, at some point in the future, for 500Mt/yr of capacity. The Indian majors are counting on this and laying the groundwork for a step-change in the future. Indeed, in a few years, 500Mt/yr may look vanishingly small if demand increases rapidly. What are the chances of that?

Vietnam: Cement producers in Vietnam are reported to be facing a ‘double whammy’ due to falling domestic demand from a slowdown in the domestic property and infrastructure sectors, as well as a marked decline in exports due to the ongoing Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic.

However, Nguyen Quang Cung, chairman of the Vietnam Cement Association (VNCA) said that demand is expected to remain high throughout 2020 as a whole. The Ministry of Construction (MoC) currently stands by its autumn 2019 forecast that Vietnam will produce 103Mt of cement during 2020. It expects domestic consumption to be around 70Mt, with exports of 33Mt.

To help firms overcome the current difficulties, Cung proposed that the government, the State Bank of Vietnam and other parties offer support to manufacturers in the form of tax cuts and lower interest rates.

Global Cement is sceptical that Vietnam’s cement producers will meet the MoC’s 2020 forecast. In January and February 2020 the country’s domestic sales were 40% lower year-on-year compared to 2019, while exports fell by 49% year-on-year.

Vietnam: Producers exported approximately 2.82Mt of cement in January and February 2020, down by 49% year-on-year from 5.75Mt in the corresponding period of 2019. Vietnam News has reported that this is a result of the coronavirus outbreak. In February 2020 Vietnam’s Ministry of Construction said that Vietnamese cement exporters would face fierce competition as China and Thailand increase exports over the coming year.

Vietnam Cement Association president Nguyễn Quang Cung previously predicted that Vietnamese cement exports would hold steady at 34.0Mt in 2020 before falling by 26% to 25.0Mt in 2021 as a forecasted rise in domestic demand reduces the reliance on low-priced exports. China remains the primary importer of Vietnamese cement, which it buys at US$36.3/t. Domestic demand fell by 37% year-on-year to 2.88Mt in January 2020 from 5.43Mt in January 2019, according to Arab News.

Production rose by 0.1% year-on-year to 13.0Mt in January and February 2020 from 12.9Mt one year previously.

Vietnam: Xuan Thanh Cement has ordered seven liquid starters from AKA. The plant in Ha Nam Province has a cement production capacity of 5.5Mt/yr from two production lines. The most recent production line was supplied by Denmark’s FLSmidth. France’s AKA supplies a variety of liquid starters, electronic starters and power controllers for industrial end users.