Displaying items by tag: Vietnam

A couple of stories have popped up this week regarding restrictions on cement imports. First, authorities in Taiwan have launched an anti-dumping investigation into Vietnamese cement. Secondly, and perhaps more surprisingly given its growing economy, the authorities in Kyrgyzstan are planning to ban overland imports of cement from within Central Asia. More on that later…

First, to the Far East, where Taiwan’s Trade Remedies Authority has launched an anti-dumping investigation into cement and clinker imported from Vietnam. It will assess imports covering the year from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2024 and target seven specific Vietnamese cement producers among others. The Vietnamese companies are mandatory respondents – they will be compelled to answer investigators’ questions.

Vietnamese cement has long been among the cheapest in the region due to the country’s drive to hit production targets, rather than simply meeting demand. The situation has resulted in a vast amount of cement available for export. This, coupled to Vietnam’s long, indented coastline, makes it easy to ship cement overseas.

Even with export volumes falling by 1.2% year-on-year to 31.3Mt in 2023, around a third of Vietnam’s capacity, this is a massive volume of cement - and it’s only getting cheaper. The average export value of Vietnamese cement and clinker fell from US$46-48/t at the start of 2023 to just US$31-32/t in May 2024, a decline of 30-35%. These changes have been due, in part, to an increase in tax on clinker exports from 5% to 10% on 1 January 2023 and an anti-dumping investigation launched by the Philippines in March 2023. Falling prices and volumes represent a ‘double-whammy’ for producers, several of which have announced that they made losses in the first half of 2024. Vicem’s top management said that challenges also arose at home due to a reduced demand following limited civil engineering projects and a stagnant real estate market.

It is easy to see why Taiwanese cement producers may feel threatened by the prospect of greater volumes of cheap cement on their doorstep. Taiwan only made 4.9Mt/yr of cement in the first half of 2024. With domestic prices in the region of US$65-70/t according to Cement Network, this provides a very attractive margin of US$33-39/t for Vietnamese producers to export to Taiwan. It will be interesting to see how far the country’s authorities are willing to go to protect the country’s producers and whether any anti-dumping policies lead to further falls in the landed volumes of Vietnamese cement.

Meanwhile, 4600km to the west, Kyrgyzstan has announced that it will enforce a six-month road import ban on several types of cement including Portland cement, alumina cement and slag cement. The ban, affecting both cement and clinker, will take effect on 1 October 2024 and last for six months. According to the State Statistical Committee of Kyrgyzstan, the country saw a 76% year-on-year increase in cement imports – mainly from Iran, Kazakhstan, China and Uzbekistan - between January 2024 and May 2024. The total import volume over the five months was 125,737t. For a country that made just 1Mt over the same period, this is a major change.

The overland import ban is more of a surprise than the Taiwan / Vietnam situation, as Kyrgyzstan recently reported that the North of the country was experiencing a ‘construction boom’ and cement shortages. However, two new plants due to start production in the coming months could help the country out... unless it too would like to export its newly-developed cement production capacity.

And here we arrive at a ‘classic’ impasse. From Pakistani cement in South Africa, to price arguments in West Africa, import bans in Central Asia and Vietnamese cement in Philippines and Taiwan, more and more exporters are finding that their markets are already self-sufficient in cement, with the US perhaps the notable exception. Soon there will be nowhere left for cement to be exported to. Are we at peak cement?

Vietnam: Taiwan has launched an anti-dumping investigation into cement and clinker imported from Vietnam. The Trade Remedies Authority of Vietnam announced that Taiwan's inquiry, initiated on 8 August 2024, focuses on cement and clinker with the import codes 2523.29.90.00.2 and 2523.10.90.00.3, requested by the Taiwan Cement Manufacturers Association. The investigation will assess imports from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2024, targeting seven specific Vietnamese companies, among other exporters. The Vietnamese companies are mandatory respondents in this investigation and must engage fully by submitting the required information to the Ministry of Finance within the stipulated 20 days from initiation of the investigation.

Vietnam: Several Vietnamese cement producers have reported losses in the first half of 2024, attributing the downturn to reduced domestic demand and competitive pricing pressures, reports Vietnam Investment Review. Vicem But Son recorded losses of US$1.5m in the second quarter of 2024, marking its seventh consecutive quarter of losses, with a 2024 first half revenue figure of US$50m, down by 10%, and total losses reaching US$3.83m. Vicem Hai Van also continued its decline, with a 43% drop in second quarter revenue to just over US$4m and losses of US$396,000. Vicem leaders said that challenges arose due to a reduced demand following limited civil engineering projects and a stagnant real estate market.

Despite the sector's overall downturn, firms like Vicem Ha Tien and Chinfon have recorded profits, with Ha Tien posting US$141m in revenue and US$875,000 in profits, and Chinfon doubling its yearly profit to US$25,250. However, the outlook for the remainder of 2024 remains bleak, with anticipated difficulties in market recovery and increasing input costs. Acoording to Vicem, the cost of electricity will continue increasing, while the demand for cement is not anticipated to recover before the end of 2024.

Taiwan: Taiwan will initiate an anti-dumping investigation into cement and clinker imports from Vietnam in August 2024, according to the Trade Remedies Authority of Vietnam (TRAV) under the Ministry of Industry and Trade. The TRAV has advised the Vietnam Cement Association to inform its members and coordinate with Taiwanese importers for market monitoring, reports the Vietnam News Brief Service. Companies must provide export data from 2021 to mid-2024 by 12 August 2024.

Vietnamese cement and clinker exports have seen a decline in recent years. In 2023, exports fell to 31.3Mt, valued at US$1.32bn, down by 1.2% year-on-year. From January to July 2024, exports decreased further to 18.3Mt, worth US$705m, a decline of 1% compared to the same period in 2023. The VNCA forecast continued challenges for cement and clinker exports due to China’s stagnant real estate market and surplus cement production.

Vietnam: The Vietnamese Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment has expressed environmental concerns about Duyen Ha's plan to convert 423,000m² of forest and and agricultural land into a quarry for its expansion of its Diep cement plant in Ninh Binh province. The expansion will increase limestone supply for a second production line at the plant, Vietnam News has reported. According to an environmental impact assessment report, the expansion will affect 382,000m² of forest and 41,000m² of agricultural land. The total project area will eventually reach 988,000m², capable of producing 2Mt/yr of limestone. The total investment is valued at US$8.8m.

Vietnam: Vietnam produced 104.1Mt of cement in the first seven months of 2024, marking a 1% increase year-on-year, as reported by the General Statistics Office (GSO). In July 2024, the country's cement output is estimated at 15.2Mt, a rise of 7% compared to July 2023.

Vietnam: State-owned Vietnam Cement Industry Corporation (Vicem) reported a loss of US$34m in the first half of 2024, a figure that has increased by 200% year-on-year.

The losses are attributed to a stagnant real estate market, rising material and fuel costs, exchange rate fluctuations and intense competition within the industry. Vicem produced 7.63Mt of clinker and 9.77Mt of cement during the period, experiencing over a 7% year-on-year decline in both. Its revenue also fell by 19.4% year-on-year to nearly US$520m. This is the second consecutive year the firm has recorded a loss, following a US$43m deficit in 2023.

Vietnam: The Ministry of Construction has proposed resuming cement sector planning to the prime minister, addressing the critical oversupply affecting the industry. Cement planning ceased six years ago, leading to unregulated project approvals. Vietnam now faces a surplus, with 92 production lines and a total capacity exceeding 120Mt/yr, while domestic consumption lags at under 60Mt/yr and exports are only 30Mt/yr. The construction slowdown exacerbates the issue, with redundant clinker production capacity at approximately 50Mt/yr, leading to risk of cement producers going bust, unless suitable measures are introduced. The latest figures from the Vietnam National Cement Association (VNCA) show that cement plants are running at just 70-75% of their designed capacity.

Deputy CEO of Vicem, Nguyen Thanh Tung, said "Several production lines belonging to our system have to temporarily halt operation, incurred by low consumption and dwindling incomes. Despite all this, we commit to not selling products below the production cost."

Vietnam: The average export value of Vietnamese cement and clinker has dropped sharply in 2023 due to falling prices, with the average price for clinker declining to US$31-32/t in May 2024, from US$46-48/t in 2022. The Vietnam News Brief Service reports that the Ministry of Construction (MoC) has identified an increase in export tax from 5% to 10% starting 1 January 2023, and additional anti-dumping duties imposed by the Philippines in March 2023, as barriers reducing the global competitiveness of Vietnamese clinker.

In response, the MoC has proposed eliminating the export tax on clinker and revising policies to allow for VAT refunds on clinker exports. According to the MoC, resolving these tax and VAT issues is key to the success of Vietnamese clinker exports, which currently lag 20% behind international competitors,

Vietnam: The Vietnamese cement industry persists in facing difficulties, with several plants operating at only 70 - 75% capacity and accumulating stockpiles of around 5Mt, according to the Vietnam Investment Review. The total production capacity is over 120Mt/yr, yet four new production lines with a combined 11Mt capacity remain inactive. At a recent conference, strategies were proposed to alleviate industry pressures, including fiscal policy adjustments and abolishing the current clinker export tariff, which currently sits at 10%. It was revealed that many cement producers are struggling due to borrowing, soaring production costs and slow consumption.

Chair of the Vietnam Cement Association Nguyen Quang Cung said "Never before has the cement industry been at such a critical stage. If the current predicament drags on, the possibility of domestic ownership transferring to foreign investors might occur, posing the threat of the cement sector falling into the hands of foreign businesses, thereby reducing the country's ability to deal with pricing and market moderation in the long term."