Displaying items by tag: data

Belarus: Belarusian Cement enterprises produced 5.34Mt of cement in 2024, up by 7% year-on-year, with shipments rising by 10% and total sales to domestic and foreign markets by 6.5%.

The holding company’s three plants, OJSC Krasnoselskstroymaterialy, Belarusian Cement Plant and OJSC Krichevcementnoshifer, accounted for 86.5% of domestic cement sales in the first quarter of 2025. The group also exports to Russia, supplying up to 10% of demand in the Central and Northwestern Federal Districts. It plans to increase market share further by modernising its production lines.

Sectoral adjustment continued for the cement industry in China in 2024. Now that the financial results from many of the larger China-based cement producers are out it gives Global Cement Weekly a chance to review the world’s biggest cement market. The decline in national output of cement accelerated in 2024 and the results showed this. CNBM summed up the situation as follows: “In 2024, affected by the reduction of real estate investment and the slowdown of infrastructure projects, the cement industry in China was caught in a situation of insufficient demand and aggravated overcapacity.” Output dropped by just under 10% year-on-year to 1.83Bnt in 2024 according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). This is the fourth consecutive annual decline and the lowest figure the sector has experienced since around 2010.

Graph 1: Cement output in China, 2018 to 2024. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

The China Cement Association’s (CCA) assessment concurred with CNBM. Although it detected a slowing in the decline in the second half of 2024, especially in the fourth quarter. It noted that the country has a production capacity of 1.81Bnt/yr and an estimated clinker utilisation rate of 53% in 2024. Note the large apparent difference this may suggest between the NBS and CCA figures. Data from the NBS for the first quarter of 2025 has shown a slowing of the decline. Output was 331Mt, a fall of just 1.7% year-on-year from the same period in 2023. The CCA’s prediction for 2025 is that cement demand will fall by 5% as the real estate market continues to deflate. However, it expects government-led capacity reduction schemes to start making progress.

Graph 2: Sales revenue from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

Graph 3: Sales volumes of cement and clinker from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

CNBM’s sales revenue fell by 14% to US$24.8bn in 2024. Sales of its Basic Building Materials segment fell by 23% to US$12.5bn. This was blamed on falling volumes and prices of cement and other heavy building materials. Sales from the group’s two other segments - New Materials and Engineering Technology Services - rose modestly but this wasn’t enough to hold up total group sales. Operating profit from the Basic Building Materials segment decreased by 45% to US$544m. It was a similar picture at Anhui Conch with sales revenue and net profit down by 36% to US$12.4bn and by 25% to US$1.01bn respectively. Notably, CNBM’s sales volumes of cement decreased by 21% to 245Mt in 2024 compared to a decrease of 6.5% to 268Mt by Anhui Conch. This made Anhui Conch the world’s biggest cement company by sales volumes in 2024.

Tangshan Jidong Cement and China Resources Building Materials Technology (CRBMT) both reported a similar situation. Revenue was down and a net loss was reported by the former. Both revenue and net profit were down for the latter. CRBMT said that its cement capacity utilisation rate was 69% in 2024, down from 71% in 2023. This appears to be significantly higher than the national rate mentioned above by the CCA but the company’s regional distribution may be at play here.

Following from recent years, Huaxin Cement bucked the general market trend and its revenue rose modestly to US$4.7bn in 2024. Its net profit still fell by 12.5% to US$330m. Its overseas businesses made the difference. It reported an increase of 37% to 16.2Mt in overseas cement sales with its non-China cement production capacity rising by 8% to 22.5Mt/yr. Milestones include various new or upgraded plant projects in Sub-Saharan Africa capped off by its announcement at the end of 2024 that it was preparing to buy Lafarge Africa. Other cement companies were also keen to promote overseas activity. CNBM said that the first signing of overseas merger and acquisition was achieved in 2024. This is likely to be the purchase of the Djebel El Oust cement plant in Tunisia from Votorantim Cimentos that was completed in late March 2025. Tangshan Jidong Cement acquired the remaining 40% share in South Africa-based Mamba Cement in April 2024.

All of this leaves the cement sector in China still waiting for the market to stabilise. US tariffs seem unlikely to have an effect in any meaningful way unless the general economy is altered. The declining real estate sector and cement production overcapacity are the main drivers at the national level. The CCA expects the real estate market to continue to fall in 2025 although it hopes that government remedy measures will start to show an effect. It is more optimistic about capacity reduction plans. One route towards this is through merger and acquisition activity. In a recent response to investors about industry integration, Huaxin Cement speculated that the sector might consolidate down to 30 companies from around 300 at present. There is clearly still a way to go.

Russia: Siberian Cement’s (Sibcem) five cement plants produced 840,300t of cement in the first quarter of 2025, down by 5% year-on-year. The Topkinsky plant’s output fell by 10% to 346,500t, Iskitimcement by 9% to 210,200t, and Timlyuisky by 24% to 45,900t. Meanwhile, the Krasnoyarsk and Angarsk plants increased production by 10% and 21% to 128,600t and 109,200t respectively.

Vice president of Sibcem Gennady Rasskazov said “According to our calculations, in 2024 the capacity of the Siberian cement market decreased by 2% year-on-year, to 6.7Mt. Currently, demand continues to fall: in the first quarter of 2025, cement consumption in Siberia decreased by 4% year-on-year, and amounted to 1.08Mt. There is every reason to believe that negative trends will intensify in the future.”

Colombia: National grey cement production fell by 4% year-on-year to 1.05Mt in February 2025. Domestic shipments declined by 7% to 0.97Mt in the same month. In the first two months of 2025, total production dropped by 5% to 1.99Mt and domestic shipments also fell by 5% to 1.83Mt.

Saudi Arabia: Total cement sales in Saudi Arabia dropped by 2% year-on-year to 3.61Mt in March 2025 from 3.70Mt in March 2024, according to data from Yamama Cement. Domestic sales fell by almost 4% to 3.45Mt, while exports rose by 36% to 158,000t from 116,000t. Arabian Cement recorded the highest increase in domestic sales at 26%, followed by Al-Safwa Cement with 22%. Umm Al-Qura Cement posted the steepest drop at 36%, while Tabuk Cement’s fell by 34%. Al-Jouf Cement’s sales remained unchanged at 102,000t.

Three companies exported a total of 158,000 tons of cement in March 2025. Saudi Cement led with 139,000t. Clinker production fell by 6% to 5.1Mt, while clinker inventories grew 5% to 44.3Mt. Saudi Cement also led clinker exports with 153,000t, followed by Northern Region Cement with 58,000t.

Switzerland: Cement deliveries rose by 1% year-on-year to 0.79Mt in the first quarter of 2025, continuing the upward trend seen in the final quarter of 2024, according to Cemsuisse. It attributed the slight recovery to lower interest rates and rising construction applications in the residential sector, but stated that the coming months would indicate whether the current economic uncertainty will affect activity. In the quarter, 36% of deliveries were made by rail and 64% by road.

Brazil: The Brazilian cement industry recorded sales of 15.6Mt in the first quarter of 2025, up by 6% year-on-year, according to the National Cement Industry Union (SNIC). Sales in March 2025 reached 5.3Mt, up by 5% year-on-year. The result was attributed to the continued growth of the labour market and of the population, in addition to a declining unemployment rate. However, SNIC stated that ‘uncertainties’ stemming from the US are likely to be reflected in global inflation and production costs. It projects growth of 1-1.5% for 2025.

SNIC president Paulo Camillo Penna said “In 2024, the industry recovered the losses of 2022 and 2023, closing the year with 4% growth. Projections for the first half of 2025 remain positive, but economic instability marked by the increase in interest rates, personal debt, high inflation and tax issues should reduce the sector's gains in the second half of 2025.”

President Trump said he was going to do it… and he did. The US announced tariffs on most imports on 2 April 2025 that took effect from 5 April 2025. So, once again, we ask what the consequences of this might be upon the cement sector.

Table 1: Estimated burden of US tariffs on selected countries importing cement based on 2024 data. Source: Based on USGS data.

Global Cement Magazine Editorial Director Robert McCaffrey posted a similar table to the one above on LinkedIn on 4 April 2025. It applies the new import tariffs to the value of imported hydraulic cement and clinker to the US in 2024 as reported by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). As such it gives us a starting idea of how the new tariffs might change what happens in 2025. For an idea of the volumes of cement imported to the US in recent years refer to the graph in GCW695.

However, a couple of key caveats were pointed out by commentators to that LinkedIn post. Marty Ozinga noted that the values from the USGS are customs values. Crucially, he said that the tariffs will be charged upon the FOB value of cement at the point of origin and not on the transport costs. This is significant because the cost of moving the cement can sometimes be more than half the total values reported in the table for certain countries. Another commentator wanted to make it clear that tariffs on imports are imposed upon the supply chain and are paid somewhere along it, typically by end users, rather than the originating country. Elsewhere, the feeling was very much one of waiting to see what would happen next and how markets would reorder.

Taken at face value, the first takeaway from Table 1 is that the variable tariffs disrupt the competitiveness of the importers. Any importer from a country with the lowest rate, 10%, now has an advantage over those with higher ones. Türkiye seems to be the obvious winner here as it was both the largest importer of cement in 2024 and it has the lowest rate. Vietnam appears to be a loser with a massive 46% rate. Canada and Mexico may have problems with a 25% tariff but how their cement gets to the US market may make a big difference as Ozinga mentions above. And so it goes down the list. What may be significant is how the order of the importers further down the list changes. For example, Algeria has a 30% rate compared to Egypt’s 10%. Both nations exported a similar volume of cement to the US in 2024.

The first casualty of the last week has been market certainty. The US announced the tariffs and stock markets slumped around the world. They started to revive on 8 April 2025 as the US government made more reassuring noises about trade talks but this was dampened by renewed fears of a US - China trade war. The orthodox economic view is that the US tariffs are increasingly likely to cause a recession in the US in the short term regardless of whether they have a more positive effect on the longer one. This view can be detected in former PCA economist Ed Sullivan’s latest independent report on the US economy. He acknowledged the fairness argument the US government has made, but warned of stagflation.

On the US construction market, prices look set to rise in areas that previously relied on imports or are near to them. Cement companies in the US should be able to sell higher volumes as some level of domestic production outcompetes imports. The sector produced 86Mt in 2024 and has a capacity of 120Mt/yr giving it a utilisation rate of 72%. It imported 20 - 25Mt of cement in 2024. One sign of this happening might be renewed investment in local capacity through upgrades, new lines and even new plants. However, a recession would reduce overall consumption. On the equipment side, there is likely to be a similar readjustment between local and foreign suppliers. Certainly, if the tariffs stick around then more non-US companies may be tempted to set up local subsidiaries and /or manufacturing bases if conditions permit. For example, note JCB’s doubling in size this week of a plant it is building in Texas. One interesting situation might occur if a US cement company wants to build a new production line. All the likely suppliers, at present at least, appear to be based outside of the US.

Finally, despite everything, Holcim declared this week that it had completed a $3.4bn bond offering ahead of the impending spin-off of Amrize in the US noting “strong investor interest in the future company.” It wants to shore-up confidence ahead of the creation of the new company at some point in the first half of the year. Holcim’s CEO said previously that he didn’t expect any blowback from tariffs as the company was a local business in the US. What may be worth watching for is whether the current disruption to stock markets causes any delays to the creation of Amrize.

The current situation with the tariffs is prompting a rapid-revaluation of the US construction market and the wider economy. US-based building materials companies look set to benefit but there may be disruption along the way. Foreign companies supplying the sector may well experience sharp changes in circumstances depending on how tariffs reorder supply chains. Prices for end-users look set to rise. We live in interesting times.

For Ed Sullivan’s take on the US cement sector read his article in the May 2025 issue of Global Cement Magazine

Kenya: Cement sales fell by 8% year-on-year to 8.47Mt in 2024, the sharpest annual decline in over two decades, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS). The fall reflects budgetary cuts on public infrastructure projects and a broader slowdown in construction activity, which contracted by 3% in the third quarter of 2024, following a 2% drop in the second quarter.

KNBS said in its report “The contraction was reflected by trends in key industry indicators. For instance, cement consumption declined by 10% to 2.2Mt in the third quarter of 2024, from 2.4Mt in the same quarter of 2023.”

According to the Nation newspaper, the slowdown follows delays in the government’s payments to contractors and the stalling of infrastructure projects. The government indicated that most of the stalled projects will begin to receive funding in the next few days and weeks.

Vietnam: Cement production rose by 4% year-on-year to 36.9Mt in the first quarter of 2025, according to the General Statistics Office. In March 2025, output reached 14.4Mt, up by 1.5% year-on-year. In 2024, the country produced 184.2Mt, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year.