Displaying items by tag: data

Colombia: Cement production fell by 20.8% year-on-year to 4.88Mt in the first half of 2020 from 6.17Mt in the same period in 2019. Data from DANE, the Colombian statistics organisation, shows that local despatches fell at a similar rate. Production in June 2020 dropped by 4.7% year-on-year to 0.98Mt from 1.03Mt in June 2019. Local cement production hit a low in April 2020 when the government imposed coronavirus-related lockdowns.

Argentina: Cement despatches fell by 30.6% year-on-year to 3.83Mt in the first half of 2020 from 5.51Mt in the same period in 2019. Data from the Asociación de Fabricantes de Cemento Portland (AFCP) shows that monthly despatches from the local market, exports and imports hit a low of 0.41Mt in April 2020, a 55% year-on-year drop, before starting to recover. Despatches were 0.80Mt in June 2020m , a 7% decline from 0.86Mt in June 2019. Local consumption has fallen by a similar proportion.

India: Data from the Commerce and Industry Ministry shows that cement production fell by 85% year-on-year to 26.3Mt in the first six months of 2020 from 178Mt in the same period in 2019. Cement production in June 2020 fell by 7% year-on-year in June 2020 to 26.3Mt from 28.0Mt. India implemented a coronavirus-related lockdown that shut down industrial plants from late-March 2020 to early May 2020.

China: Data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology shows that cement output fell by 4.8% year-on-year to 1Bnt in the first half of 2020. Output from the building materials sector as a whole decreased by 2.2%, according to the Xinhua News Agency. Overall, the sector’s sales revenue and profits decreased by 4.8% to US$344bn and 8.2% to US$26.8bn respectively.

Qatar: The Industrial Production Index has recorded a 30% year-on-year decline in cement production in May 2020, caused by a reduction in demand due to the coronavirus lockdown. Production nonetheless grew by 6% month-month in May 2020.

Pakistan: Cement producers dispatched 47.8Mt of cement in the 2020 fiscal year, which ended on 30 June 2020, up by 2% year-on-year from 46.9Mt in the 2019 fiscal year. Data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association shows that the largest area of growth was in cement exports from southern Pakistan, up by 46% to 5.88Mt from 4.01Mt, while northern exports fell by 22% to 1.97Mt from 2.53Mt. Conversely, domestic dispatches fell by 29% in the south to 5.64Mt from 7.98Mt, and rose by 6% in the north to 34.3Mt from 32.4Mt, thus constituting 72% of total dispatches.

Senegal: The Chambre des Mines du Sénégal (CMS) has reported a 5% year-on-year increase in domestic sales and a 0.6% year-on-year increase in cement production in the first half of 2020. The Le Journal de l'Economie Sénégalaise newspaper has reported that exports fell by 13%.

Spain: Total domestic cement consumption was 6.19Mt in the first half of 2020, down by 17% year-on-year from 7.41Mt in the first half of 2019. Interempresas News has reported that the coronavirus lockdown caused consumption in the period to decrease. June consumption rose by 5.2% to 1.34Mt from 670,000t in June 2019.

Oficemen president Victor García Brosa said, “In June 2020 many of the works paralysed during the confinement, for example real estate developments, were resumed, but the monthly positive data should not make us think of a recovery in the sector." He added, “We continue to insist that construction is the driving force for the employment that our country needs right now and cannot continue to be forgotten by the administration. Other sectors such as the automotive or tourism sectors already have contingency plans activated, while ours continues to be largely forgotten, even though it could generate a significant volume of jobs.”

Russia: The railways transported 11.4Mt of cement in the first half of 2020, down by 11% year-on-year from 12.4Mt in the first half of 2019. Beton News has reported that the figure is the lowest in a decade, down by 33% from17.0Mt in the record first half of 2012.

Data is starting to emerge from South American countries for the first half of 2020 and it’s not necessarily what one might expect. Countries had different trends in play before the coronavirus pandemic established itself and then governments acted in their own ways with mixed results. Here’s a brief summary of the situation in the key territories.

Graph 1: Cement sales in selected South American countries in first half of year, 2018 – 2020. Source: Local cement associations and national statistics offices. Note: Colombian data is for January – May for each year.

Brazil’s cement sector looked set to become the big loser as global events seemed poised to dent the recovery of cement sales since a low in 2018. This didn’t happen. The Brazilian national cement industry union’s (SNIC) preliminary data for the first six months of 2020 shows that sales grew by 3.7% year-on-year to 26.9Mt. This is above the growth rate of 3% originally expected. Indeed, the monthly year-on-year growth rate in June 2020 was 24.5%. SNIC is not wrong in describing this kind of pace as being ‘Chinese.’ All this growth has been attributed to the home improvement market as people used their lockdown time to renovate their homes, renovations and maintenance in commercial buildings during lockdown and growing work on real estate projects. The government’s decision to implement weak lockdown measures clearly helped the sector but this may have cost lives in the process.

SNIC’s president Paulo Camillo Penna pointed out that producing and selling cement could co-exist with fighting coronavirus. However, trends such as a slowing real estate sector, less large construction projects and mounting input costs are all seen as potential risks in the second half of 2020. What SNIC didn’t link to the wider fortunes of the local cement industry was the economic consequences of coronavirus. The World Bank, for example, has forecast an 8% fall in gross domestic product in Brazil in 2020 due to its coronavirus, “mitigation measures, plunging investment and soft global commodity prices.”

Peru, in contrast to Brazil, implemented a strong lockdown early in March 2020. Unfortunately, it didn’t seem to work as well as hoped possibly due to informal and structural issues such as reliance on markets, the informal economy and residential overcrowding. This means that production and sales of cement are significantly down without any public health benefit. Both production and despatches fell by about 40% to around 2.9Mt in the first half of 2020 with close to total stoppages in April 2020. In terms of coronavirus, Peru is at the time of writing in the top 10 worldwide for both total cases and deaths, behind only Brazil in South America. It should be pointed out though that Peru’s testing rate is reportedly high for the region and this may be making its response look dire in the short term. All of this is particularly sad from an industrial perspective given that Peru was one of the continent’s strongest performers prior to 2020. One consolation though is that the economy is expected to recover more quickly compared to its neighbours.

Argentina started 2020 with a downward trend in its local market. Cement sales had been falling since 2017, roughly following a recession in the wider economy. Throw in a strong lockdown and sales more than halved at its peak in April 2020. So far this has led to a drop of 31% to 3.83Mt for the first half of 2020 compared to 5.51Mt in the same period in 2019. Unfortunately, a recent spike in cases in Buenos Aires has led to renewed lockdowns in the capital. Due to this unwelcome development and the general economic situation Fitch Ratings has forecast an overall decline in cement sales volumes of 25% for 2020 as a whole.

Finally, Colombia’s cement production fell by 24% year-on-year to 3.90Mt in the first five months of 2020 from 5.14Mt in the same period in 2019. April 2020 was the worst month affected. The country’s lockdown ended on 13 April 2020 for infrastructure projects and on 27 April 2020 for cement production and residential and commercial construction. On 5 May 2020 Cementos Argos said that domestic demand was at 50% of pre-lockdown levels. Data from DANE, the Colombian statistics authority, shows that local sales fell by around a third year-on-year to 0.71Mt in May 2020 from 1.06Mt in May 2019.

Most of the countries examined above follow the pattern of reduced cement production and sales in relation to the severity of the lockdown imposed and the resulting intensity of the coronavirus outbreak. Stronger lockdowns suppressed cement production and sales in the region of 20 – 40% in the first half of the year as governments shut down totally and then released industry and commerce incrementally. The exception is Peru, which has suffered the worst of both worlds: a severe lockdown and a severe health crisis. Local trends have continued around this, like the recovery in Brazil in the construction industry and the general recession in Argentina.

SNIC’s president has said that making and selling cement needn’t be exclusive with public health measures. He’s right but Brazil’s surging case load is an outlier compared with most of its continental neighbours and the rest of the world. Cement sectors in countries with growing economies like Peru and Colombia are expected to bounce back quicker than those with stagnant ones like Argentina. The risk for Brazil is what its government health strategy will do to the construction sector in the second half of 2020.