Displaying items by tag: data

Uruguay: Cement sales rose by 4.6% year-on-year to 0.60Mt in the first nine months of 2018 from 0.57Mt in the same period in 2018. Exports and internal sales both rose by similar ratios to 87,700t and 0.51Mt respectively, according to data from the Chamber of Industries of Uruguay. Despite overall growth, exports in the third quarter of 2018 nearly halved. Most exports were sent to Paraguay, followed by Argentina and Brazil.

Saudi Arabia: Cement despatches dropped by 5.4% year-on-year to 37.3Mt in the first 10 months of 2018 from 39.4Mt in the same period in 2017. The local industry’s utilisation rate has declined in consecutive months since October 2017 to just 54.8% in October 2018, according to Aljazira Capital. At the same time clinker inventories increased by 1.6% month-on-month to 41.6Mt in October 2018.

Spain: Jesus Ortiz, the president of Oficemen, says that the local market has ‘worrying’ levels of uncertainty. His comments follow a reduction in cement consumption growth since 2017 and falling export markets. The Spanish cement associaton is concerned that growth has mainly been driven by residential construction. The Cement Demand Index (IDC) grew by 8.5% year-on-year in September 2018 but this was a slight decline month-on-month. From October 2017 to September 2018 an estimated 13Mt of cement was consumed, a rise of 1Mt from the previous year. However, exports have fallen conscutively over the last year and a half.

Uzbekistan: Cement production has fallen by 4.7% year-on-year to 5.6Mt in the first nine months of 2018 from 5.9Mt in the same period in 2017. The decline has been blamed on rising gas and electricity prices, according to the Trend News Agency. Energy prices have risen by at least 60% so far in 2018. 4.5Mt of production, or over 80%, was sold through the Uzbek Commodity Exchange.

France: Bénédicte de Bonnechose, the president of the French cement industry union (SFIC), says that country’s cement market is expected to grow by 3% in 2018. She made the comments whilst unveiling local CO₂ reduction targets by 2050, according to the Agence France Presse. The local industry recorded growth of 4% in 2017. She described 2018 as a ‘positive recovery’ with sustained growth following a good first half.

SFIC forecasts that new low-clinker cement products will enter the market by mid-2020. These products include EMC II / CM, EMC VI and LC3 types of cement. These should reduce the CO₂ emissions related to current sold cement products by 35%. Other CO₂ capture initiatives including Oxyfuel, Leiliac and calcium looping cleanker technologies were also mentioned.

Angola: Manuel Pacavira Júnior, the chairman of the Angolan Cement Industry Association (AICA) does not believe that the cement production utilisation rate in the country will reach 30% in 2018. Pacavira Júnior described the situation as one of ‘significant losses’ given that local producers are suffering from high operating costs, according to the Angola Press Agency. The country has a cement production capacity of 8.6Mt/yr but it only consumed 2.6Mt in 2017. This follows cement production of 3.87Mt in 2016, 5.2Mt in 2015 and 4.92Mt in 2.14. The five local producers are continuning to operate but at reduced levels due to the poor market. They are looking to build their export markets.

Cambodia: The four local cement plants produced 3.67Mt of cement in the first nine months of 2018. The Ministry of Industry and Handicraft said that two more plants will open by December 2018, according to the Phnom Penh Post newspaper. Kampot Cement produced 2.21Mt, Cambodia Cement Chakrey produced 1.22Mt, Chip Mong Insee Cement produced 0.12mt and Battambang Conch Cement produced 0.11Mt. The new plants to be opened are Southern Cement (Cambodia) and Thai Boon Rong (Cement).

Uzbekistan: 80% of local cement sales were made through the Uzbek Commodity Exchange in the first nine months of 2018. Local sales fell by 4.7% year-on-year to 5.6Mt from 5.9Mt, according to the Trend News Agency. 4.5Mt of this total was sold through the commodity exchange. Falling sales have been blamed on rising natural gas and electricity prices. Tariffs for gas and electricity have increased by at least 60% during 2018 for industrial users in the construction industry, including cement producers.

As ever, there have been plenty of news stories from Pakistan recently covering the on-going fallout of the water shortage at the Katas Raj Temples in Chakwal, Punjab and an update on new production line at Maple Leaf Cement’s Iskanderabad plant. The two stories present two sides to the furious pace of the local industry and the potential price this growth might entail.

Graph 1: Cement despatches in Pakistan, 2012 - 2017. Source: All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association.

Graph 1 above sets the scene with an industry that has seen total despatches grow by nearly 30% to 42.8Mt in 2017 from 33.1Mt in 2012. About four-fifths of this is based in the north of the county. The big sub-story alongside this is that exports have fallen by half to 4.2Mt in 2017 from a high of 8.3Mt in 2013. The cause of this appears to be a decline in the Afghan market and a similar drop in waterborne clinker exports. Given the higher proportion of exports to the southern market this change has likely hit the industry in south harder despite overall depatches there rising. So far in 2018 similar trends are holding, except for exports, where the clinker export market has rallied significantly in the south.

The background to all this growth domestically is Chinese investment in the form of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). CPEC-related project include integrated road infrastructure, the modernisation of railways and the development of the city of Gwadar and its related infrastructure. In addition the local Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) is also having an effect and demographic pressures, such as a housing shortage, are also expected to support the construction market.

Data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) placed cement production capacity at 54Mt/yr in September 2018 compared to 66Mt/yr in the Global Cement Directory 2018, which includes new capacity being built. This compares to around 10Mt/yr in the 1995 local financial year to an estimated 73Mt/yr by the State Bank of Pakistan in its third quarter report for 2017 - 2018. This rapid growth can be seen in recent stories such as the Iskanderabad plant expansion, Flying Cement’s mill order from Loesche, Kohat Cement’s mill order also from Loesche, a new solar plant at Fauji Cement at its Attock plant and the commissioning of DG Khan’s new plant at Hub. These stories are all from the last three months! The State Bank of Pakistan estimated that 11 producers hare now investing US$2.12bn on capacity expansions to add over 23Mt/yr by the end of the 2021 financial year.

One potential price for all of this growth is currently being illustrated in the ongoing legal wrangles about the use of water by cement plants near the Katas Raj Temples. What started as an investigation into why water levels were dropping at a pond at a Hindu heritage site seems to have transformed into a full scale inquiry into alleged corruption by local government around the setting up of cement plants. A report by the Punjab Anti-Corruption Establishment Lahore to the Supreme Court has found irregularities committed by government departments in connection to the setting up of cement plants by DG Khan and Bestway Cement in Chakwal. It seems unlikely at this stage that this inquiry will cause too much trouble for the local cement industry but it will certainly make it more complicated and potentially more expensive to st up new plants in the future.

Read Global Cement’s plant report from the DG Khan’s Khairpur cement plant in Chakwal

More positive news emerged from the UK cement industry this week with the news that Cemex is planning to restart the second kiln at its South Ferriby plant later in 2018. This marks the full recovery of the plant after a disastrous flood in late 2013 and it is an all round good news story. Around the same time the local government in Scotland approved the planning application for an upgrade to Tarmac’s Dunbar cement plant. That project involves installing a new cement grinding mill, a new cement storage silo and a rail loading facility.

Graph 1: Domestic cement, imported cement and other cementitious sales in the UK, 2001 - 2017. Source: Mineral Products Association.

The timing is interesting given the general uncertainty in the UK economy ahead of the UK exit from the European Union (EU). However, data from the Mineral Products Association (MPA) shows that total cementitious material sales (cement plus products made from fly ash and ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBS)) reached 15.3Mt in 2017 from a low of 10.3Mt in 2009 following the financial crash. This isn’t as high as the 15.8Mt figures recorded in 2007 but it does mark a recovery. This masks to an extent the change in the market since 2007. Cement sales in 2017 at 10.2Mt were still below a high of 11.9Mt in 2008. The recovery has been driven by higher imports, 1.9Mt in 2017, and higher use of fly ash and GGBS products, which reached 3.2Mt in 2017.

Cemex and Tarmac are not alone in announcing projects. HeidelbergCement’s local subsidiary Hanson is upgrading its Padeswood plant with a new Euro22m mill. Irish slag cement grinding company Ecocem opened its import terminal at Sheerness in mid-2017 and French grinding firm, Cem'In'Eu, has also expressed interest in building a plant, in this case in London.

As discussed earlier in the year, new upgrade projects in the UK appear to carry an element of risk given the unknown status of its departure from the EU. Supply chains may be affected, companies are delaying investment and the value of Pound Sterling is falling. The collapse of construction services company Carillion also had a knock-on effect in the industry and, with major work on the Crossrail infrastructure project finishing, the industry has no major infrastructure projects in support. A quarterly graph of UK construction industry output volume by Arcadis shows almost uniform growth since mid-2012 although this started to flatten in 2017. A badly-handled Brexit (UK exit from the EU) could undo this growth.

All of this presents a picture of risk-adverse capital projects in the UK. The MPA figures help to explain the focus on grinding at Padeswood and Dunbar. The market has changed since 2007, with a growing focus on imports and secondary cementitious materials. Hence spending money on equipment to process these inputs makes sense. The decision to increase production at South Ferriby meanwhile depends on reviving existing equipment. Regional cement sales figures to 2016 from the MPA appear to indicate static demand in counties close to the plant (Yorkshire and Humberside) but sales have increased in the East Midlands and the East of England.

Just compare the current UK approach to the situation in Egypt. This week the head of the cement division of the Chamber of Building Materials described the decision to build the Beni Suef cement plant to local media as “not based on precise information” and that it had harmed local production. In case you had forgotten, that plant is one of the biggest in the world with six lines. The commentator may well have been representing smaller local producers but opening a 12Mt/yr plant in Egypt in these turbulent economic times marks a different approach to risk than the modest plant upgrades in the UK. Let’s wait and see who has the best approach.