Displaying items by tag: data

Uzbekistan: 80% of local cement sales were made through the Uzbek Commodity Exchange in the first nine months of 2018. Local sales fell by 4.7% year-on-year to 5.6Mt from 5.9Mt, according to the Trend News Agency. 4.5Mt of this total was sold through the commodity exchange. Falling sales have been blamed on rising natural gas and electricity prices. Tariffs for gas and electricity have increased by at least 60% during 2018 for industrial users in the construction industry, including cement producers.

As ever, there have been plenty of news stories from Pakistan recently covering the on-going fallout of the water shortage at the Katas Raj Temples in Chakwal, Punjab and an update on new production line at Maple Leaf Cement’s Iskanderabad plant. The two stories present two sides to the furious pace of the local industry and the potential price this growth might entail.

Graph 1: Cement despatches in Pakistan, 2012 - 2017. Source: All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association.

Graph 1 above sets the scene with an industry that has seen total despatches grow by nearly 30% to 42.8Mt in 2017 from 33.1Mt in 2012. About four-fifths of this is based in the north of the county. The big sub-story alongside this is that exports have fallen by half to 4.2Mt in 2017 from a high of 8.3Mt in 2013. The cause of this appears to be a decline in the Afghan market and a similar drop in waterborne clinker exports. Given the higher proportion of exports to the southern market this change has likely hit the industry in south harder despite overall depatches there rising. So far in 2018 similar trends are holding, except for exports, where the clinker export market has rallied significantly in the south.

The background to all this growth domestically is Chinese investment in the form of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). CPEC-related project include integrated road infrastructure, the modernisation of railways and the development of the city of Gwadar and its related infrastructure. In addition the local Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) is also having an effect and demographic pressures, such as a housing shortage, are also expected to support the construction market.

Data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) placed cement production capacity at 54Mt/yr in September 2018 compared to 66Mt/yr in the Global Cement Directory 2018, which includes new capacity being built. This compares to around 10Mt/yr in the 1995 local financial year to an estimated 73Mt/yr by the State Bank of Pakistan in its third quarter report for 2017 - 2018. This rapid growth can be seen in recent stories such as the Iskanderabad plant expansion, Flying Cement’s mill order from Loesche, Kohat Cement’s mill order also from Loesche, a new solar plant at Fauji Cement at its Attock plant and the commissioning of DG Khan’s new plant at Hub. These stories are all from the last three months! The State Bank of Pakistan estimated that 11 producers hare now investing US$2.12bn on capacity expansions to add over 23Mt/yr by the end of the 2021 financial year.

One potential price for all of this growth is currently being illustrated in the ongoing legal wrangles about the use of water by cement plants near the Katas Raj Temples. What started as an investigation into why water levels were dropping at a pond at a Hindu heritage site seems to have transformed into a full scale inquiry into alleged corruption by local government around the setting up of cement plants. A report by the Punjab Anti-Corruption Establishment Lahore to the Supreme Court has found irregularities committed by government departments in connection to the setting up of cement plants by DG Khan and Bestway Cement in Chakwal. It seems unlikely at this stage that this inquiry will cause too much trouble for the local cement industry but it will certainly make it more complicated and potentially more expensive to st up new plants in the future.

Read Global Cement’s plant report from the DG Khan’s Khairpur cement plant in Chakwal

More positive news emerged from the UK cement industry this week with the news that Cemex is planning to restart the second kiln at its South Ferriby plant later in 2018. This marks the full recovery of the plant after a disastrous flood in late 2013 and it is an all round good news story. Around the same time the local government in Scotland approved the planning application for an upgrade to Tarmac’s Dunbar cement plant. That project involves installing a new cement grinding mill, a new cement storage silo and a rail loading facility.

Graph 1: Domestic cement, imported cement and other cementitious sales in the UK, 2001 - 2017. Source: Mineral Products Association.

The timing is interesting given the general uncertainty in the UK economy ahead of the UK exit from the European Union (EU). However, data from the Mineral Products Association (MPA) shows that total cementitious material sales (cement plus products made from fly ash and ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBS)) reached 15.3Mt in 2017 from a low of 10.3Mt in 2009 following the financial crash. This isn’t as high as the 15.8Mt figures recorded in 2007 but it does mark a recovery. This masks to an extent the change in the market since 2007. Cement sales in 2017 at 10.2Mt were still below a high of 11.9Mt in 2008. The recovery has been driven by higher imports, 1.9Mt in 2017, and higher use of fly ash and GGBS products, which reached 3.2Mt in 2017.

Cemex and Tarmac are not alone in announcing projects. HeidelbergCement’s local subsidiary Hanson is upgrading its Padeswood plant with a new Euro22m mill. Irish slag cement grinding company Ecocem opened its import terminal at Sheerness in mid-2017 and French grinding firm, Cem'In'Eu, has also expressed interest in building a plant, in this case in London.

As discussed earlier in the year, new upgrade projects in the UK appear to carry an element of risk given the unknown status of its departure from the EU. Supply chains may be affected, companies are delaying investment and the value of Pound Sterling is falling. The collapse of construction services company Carillion also had a knock-on effect in the industry and, with major work on the Crossrail infrastructure project finishing, the industry has no major infrastructure projects in support. A quarterly graph of UK construction industry output volume by Arcadis shows almost uniform growth since mid-2012 although this started to flatten in 2017. A badly-handled Brexit (UK exit from the EU) could undo this growth.

All of this presents a picture of risk-adverse capital projects in the UK. The MPA figures help to explain the focus on grinding at Padeswood and Dunbar. The market has changed since 2007, with a growing focus on imports and secondary cementitious materials. Hence spending money on equipment to process these inputs makes sense. The decision to increase production at South Ferriby meanwhile depends on reviving existing equipment. Regional cement sales figures to 2016 from the MPA appear to indicate static demand in counties close to the plant (Yorkshire and Humberside) but sales have increased in the East Midlands and the East of England.

Just compare the current UK approach to the situation in Egypt. This week the head of the cement division of the Chamber of Building Materials described the decision to build the Beni Suef cement plant to local media as “not based on precise information” and that it had harmed local production. In case you had forgotten, that plant is one of the biggest in the world with six lines. The commentator may well have been representing smaller local producers but opening a 12Mt/yr plant in Egypt in these turbulent economic times marks a different approach to risk than the modest plant upgrades in the UK. Let’s wait and see who has the best approach.

Tajikistan: Average monthly volumes of cement exports have grown by 37% year-on-year to 115,000t in the first eight months of 2018 compared to 84,000t for the whole year in 2017. Data from the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies shows that 920,000t of cement was exported from January to August 2018, according to the Asia Plus agency. 520,000t was exported to neighbouring Uzbekistan, 340,000t to Afghanistan and 60,000t to Kyrgyzstan.

The Federación Interamericana del Cemento (FICEM) held its 2018 technical congress in Panama City last week and was attended by Global Cement. We’ll run a full write-up of the event in the October 2018 issue of Global Cement Magazine. The short version is that the conference was technically good but, from our perspective, it could have done with more regional analysis. Given that the event is for the local industry this is not a big issue as most of the delegates will know their own markets inside out and many were happy to discuss just this when asked. Likewise, FICEM’s in-house publication also included plenty of local data.

The nearest the presentations came to this was a global overview of the cement industry by Arnaud Pinatel of On Field Investment Research ahead of a market report the analysts are about to release. Although it covered the global cement industry the key local news was that the Latin American sector’s production capacity had grown by 3% from 2010 to 2018 but that prices had fallen in this time. The forecast suggested that cement sales volumes were expected to grow by 3% in 2019 - supported by Brazil, Peru and Bolivia - but that prices were also expected to fall by 1%, mainly due to issues in Argentina.

That last point is especially interesting over the last week because the Argentine cement body, the Asociación de Fabricantes de Cemento Portland (AFCP), released its figures last week to reveal that cement despatches rose by 4.2% year-on-year for the first eight months of 2018. However, at the same time the general news broke that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was providing an emergency loan to support the country’s economy. The government was keen to shore up confidence in the economy and attributed the growth in the cement sector to the ‘most ambitious infrastructure plan in history.’

Only last year in 2017 the industry was riding a construction boom with cement shortages, new production capacity announced and the initial public offering of Loma Negra. Bailouts from the IMF don’t fit this picture of the poster boy for the South American construction industry. And, if a financial correction is pending, the new capacity that has been ordered may arrive at a bad time. This is a pretty worrying situation.

Meanwhile, across the Uruguay River into Brazil something long expected and hopefully more encouraging has occurred: the acquisition of cement plants. Italy’s Buzzi Unicem revealed that it had struck a deal to buy a 50% stake in the Brazilian company BCPAR from Grupo Ricardo Brennand for Euro150m. The arrangements cover two integrated plants: one 2.4Mt/yr unit at Sete Lagoas in Minas Gerais and a 1.7Mt/yr unit at Pitimbu in Paraíba. Buzzi has also added an option to buy the other half of the business until 2025.

It’s hard to place a value on the sale, but it looks as if Buzzi has picked up the capacity for just under US$100/t, subject to future variation on how well the company does. At that price though this a low figure and a bargain for Buzzi. Given the pain the Brazilian cement industry had been through in recent years some form of traction is welcome. Unfortunately, Grupo Ricardo Brennand has surely lost money on the deal given that the two plants were commissioned in 2011 and 2015 respectively. The complexity of the financial arrangements suggest that Ricardo Brennand is fighting to stay in the game if and when the recovery comes. If Buzzi has moved in then this suggests that it thinks it will make their money back and that it reckons that the bottom of the construction industry trough has been reached. A Brazilian take on this situation would be fascinating.

With these kinds of events happening the same week as the FICEM technical congress it really shows how vibrant and varied the region’s cement industry is. Next year’s conference will surely be even more interesting as market events in Brazil, Argentina and other countries develop.

Germany: The German Cement Works Association (VDZ) says that cement consumption grew by 4.8% year-on-year to 28.8Mt in 2017. It has attributed this boost to higher investments in new construction work and acknowledged the benefits of good weather. However, the association expects much less growth in 2018.

Data from the German Federal Statistical Office indicates that domestic demand for cement was almost completely covered by German-based producers in 2017. Only 1.6Mt of cement or 5.4% had to be imported. This figure has increased slightly compared to the preceding years. The same applies to cement exports, which rose by 1.6% to a total of around 6.2Mt.

"Potential for growth is still evident in certain construction sectors. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult to exploit this as we are reaching capacity limits in the construction industry," said VDZ president Christian Knell.

Kazakhstan: Local cement production rose by 11.5% year-on-year to 4.63Mt in the first half of 2018 from 4.16Mt in the same period in 2017, according to Kazakhstan Newsline. Previously, production rose by 1.5% in the first half of 2017 from 4.09Mt in the same period in 2016.

UK: The Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA) has formed a strategic partnership with the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) to facilitate sustainable development of the cement and concrete sectors. As part of the new agreement, the work carried out by the Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI) will transfer from WBCSD to the GCCA on 1 January 2019 with activities managed out of the GCCA’s London offices. The new partnership will also create synergies between work programmes to benefit both the GCCA and WBCSD and their respective member companies.

“Transferring the activities of the CSI to the GCCA is a logical step and further underlines the cement and concrete sector’s commitment to advance sustainable development across the construction cycle. As the authoritative worldwide voice of the cement and concrete sector, the GCCA is ideally placed to take this work to the next level, building on the strong foundations established by WBCSD,” said Albert Manifold, chief executive officer (CEO) of CRH and GCCA President.

The CSI, which was established in 1999 and currently operates under the auspices of WBCSD, is a global effort by 24 major cement producers to advance sustainable development. Over its 19-year history, the CSI has focused on understanding, measuring, managing and minimising the impacts of cement production and use by addressing a range of issues including: climate change, fuel use, employee health and safety, airborne emissions, concrete recycling and quarry management.

Turkey: İsmail Bulut, the head of the Turkish Cement Manufacturers Association (TÇMB), says that the local industry exported US$124m of cement in 2017. He told the Daily Sabah newspaper that the sector has a production capacity of 81Mt/yr. TÇMB data shows that it exported 7.98Mt of cement in 2017 to nearly 100 countries. The top destinations for Turkish cement included Syria, the US, Israel and Ghana. It also exported 4.93Mt of clinker led by Ghana, Colombia, Ivory Coast and Guinea. Despite the high levels of exports, the country also imported relatively small amounts of clinker for Greece and Bulgaria in 2017.

Colombia: Data from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) shows that cement production declined by 1.2% year-on-year to 5.96Mt in the first half of 2018. However, production has improved since 2017 with the annual production from July 2017 to June 2018 being 12.2Mt, a decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, compared to a fall of 5.9% for the previous 12 months.