Displaying items by tag: data

China: Cement companies produced 249Mt of cement in May 2020, up by 8.6% year-on-year from 229Mt in May 2019. Xinhua News Agency has reported that cement production in the first four months of 2020 was 520Mt, down by 18% from 637Mt over the corresponding period of 2019. Four-month sales revenue fell by 13% year-on-year to US$32.9bn from US$37.8bn. Net profit fell by 18% to US$4.99bn from US$6.01bn. April 2020 was the first month of the year in which sales and profit grew, by 4.4% and 0.6% respectively.

April 2020 data from the Japanese Cement Association (JCA) suggests that Japan has avoided the worst effects of the coronavirus outbreak. The industry’s total sales fell by 2.4% year-on-year to 16.4Mt in the first four months of 2020 from 16.8Mt in the same period in 2019. This is the kind of change associated with business as usual market trends, rather than the 20% declines seen elsewhere around the world in association to the coronavirus. In part this reflects the country’s case and mortality rate, which are far lower than other Group of Seven (G7) countries. The reasons for this may be due to lower levels of testing, less stringent lockdown measures and a more effective public health strategy. That last point is perhaps even more impressive given the population’s high median age (47.3). Whatever the reasons, the overall effect on the construction materials business seems low.

Graph 1: Cement production, sales, imports and exports in Japan. Source: Japanese Cement Association.

Graph 1 above shows the Japanese cement market in a historical context. Production peaked in the mid 1990s at a little below 100Mt/yr followed by a decline to above 40Mt/yr since 2010. This informs the current situation once one removes any effects from the health emergency. As Naoki Ono, the chairman of the JCA and the chief executive officer (CEO) of Mitsubishi Materials, described it in late May 2020, domestic demand for cement fell by 3.8% year-on-year to 41Mt in 2019. He blamed this on the completion of construction work for the 2020 Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games, the end of a period of rebuilding following natural disasters and a shortage of manpower.

All of this may explain why Taiheiyo Cement announced the acquisition of a 15% stake in state-owned Semen Indonesia subsidiary Solusi Bangun Indonesia in April 2020. At the time the producer said explicitly that the partnership with Semen Indonesia was part of Taiheiyo Cement’s response to a, “forecasted long-term decline in domestic cement demand in Japan.” Given the competiveness of the Indonesian market it seems like a brave move given the country’s overcapacity, the departure of LafargeHolcim and the arrival of China’s Anhui Conch. Meanwhile at home, Mitsubishi Materials and Ube Industries said in February 2020 that the companies were discussing a potential merger of their cement businesses. The letter of intent suggests a schedule of late September 2020 to sign a definitive agreement and a target of April 2022 to complete the integration. This follows the two companies working together since 1998 on a joint venture called Ube-Mitsubishi Cement, which integrated their cement sales and logistics operations. Mitsubishi Materials and Ube Industries are the third and fourth largest producers by production capacity in the country. A merger would potentially give the combined entity the same production base as the largest producer, Taiheiyo Cement.

Taiheiyo Cement’s experience in its 2020 financial year to 31 March 2020 was in line with Naoki Ono’s summary above, with both sales and profits down. Its domestic sales volumes decreased by 5% to 14.5Mt, although exports rose by 11% to 3.9Mt. In its financial report it highlighted its key foreign markets in the US, China, Vietnam and the Philippines. Despite increasing its sales in its 2020 financial year, Sumitomo Osaka Cement’s operating income and profits fell. It blamed this on energy costs, principally coal, and other raw material inputs. It has since published its next medium-term management plan. This includes a number of measures such as cutting costs and looking at overseas expansion. Both Mitsubishi Materials and Ube Industries reported similar reductions in their sales and profits. Mitsubishi Materials noted that it had observed a decrease in cement shipment due to the construction delay caused by the coronavirus.

Ratings company R&I is optimistic about the Japanese market following the start to 2020. In a recent news release it concluded that domestic cement demand is ‘solid’ for the next few years due to order backlog and anticipated infrastructure projects. In its assessment local producers have been improving their cost structures since 2010 in ways that should support ‘certain levels of profit’ provided domestic demand remains around 40Mt/yr. In the medium to longer term though it still expects domestic demand to decrease slowly. Hence, the overseas expansion, merger and acquisition activity and cost cutting plans of the larger producers. Long trends aside, the Japanese cement sector is coping well so far with the global health pandemic.

Japan: The Japan Cement Association (JCA) has reported that cement demand has resumed its pre-coronavirus outbreak levels, with all planned construction projects from mid-May 2020 going ahead. R&I News has reported that this follows the suspension of multiple major works during the crisis, leading to a domestic demand of 3.19Mt in April 2020, down by 7% year-on-year from 3.43Mt in April 2019. Although the JCA’s 2020 cement consumption forecast is 41.0Mt, the lowest since 1990, contractors will reportedly have a backlog of projects “even after the completion of projects related to the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics,” suggesting the likelihood of a considerable rise in demand year-on-year in 2021, set against a moderate decrease in the medium to long term.

Puerto Rico: Cement companies produced 43,900t of cement in May 2020, up by 2.5% year-on-year from 42,800t in May 2019. M-Brain News has reported that sales rose by 2.1% to 52,800t from 51,700t.

Under the current circumstances it’s not surprising to see how much Indian cement production fell in April 2020. Like many other countries, its lockdown measures to combat the coronavirus outbreak suppressed industrial output. Yet seeing an 86% year-on-year fall in the world’s second largest producer is shocking. Cement production declined to 4.1Mt from 29.2Mt. Further data shows, as part of the Indian government’s eight core industries, that steel and cement production suffered the most. Coal, crude oil, natural gas, petroleum refinery products, fertilisers and electricity generation all fell by far less.

Graph 1: Change in Indian cement production year-on-year (%). Source: Office of the Economic Adviser.

By comparison in China monthly cement output only fell around 30% at the peak of its outbreak. The difference is that China implemented a graduated lockdown nationally, with the toughest measures applied in Wuhan, the place the outbreak was first identified. As we reported in April 2020 demand for cement in Wuhan had fallen by around 80% at the time its lockdown ended. Production and demand are different, but India’s experience feels similar except that it’s on a national scale. The last time the country had a dip in cement production recently was in late 2016 when the government introduced its demonetisation measures and dented cement production growth rate (and national productivity) in the process.

UltraTech Cement, Orient Cement, Ambuja Cement, India Cement, Dalmia Bharat, JK Lakshmi Cement, Shree Cement and others all suspended operations to varying degrees in the first phase of the lockdown in late March 2020. Operations of industrial plants in rural areas was then cleared to restart in mid-April 2020, although subject to local permissions and social distancing rules, as the country’s lockdown zones took shape. All of this started to show in company results towards the end of March 2020 as sales started to be hit. The worst is yet to filter through to balance sheets.

March 2020 was a particularly bad time for the government to shut down cement plants because it is normally the month when annual construction work peaks. Cement production usually hits a high around the same time. The monsoon season then follows, reducing demand, giving producers a poor time to restart business. Credit ratings agency Care Ratings has forecast that capacity utilisation will drop to 45% in the 2020 – 2021 financial year. This follows a rate of 65 – 70% over the last six years with the exception of 2019- 2020, which was dragged down to 61% due to lockdown effects. On top of this labour issues are also expected to be a major issue to the sector returning to normality. The mass movement of workers back to their homes made world-wide news as India started its lockdown. Now they have to move back and Care Ratings thinks this is unlikely to complete until after the monsoon season, by September 2020. Hence, it doesn’t expect a partial recovery until the autumn, nor a full recovery until January 2021 at the earliest.

Not everybody is quite as gloomy though. HM Bangur, the managing director at Shree Cement recently told the Business Standard newspaper that he was expecting a rebound following the resumption of production in May 2020. He also reported a capacity utilisation rate of 60% at his company, higher than Care Rating’s prediction above, and he noted a difference between demand in rural areas and smaller cities (higher) compared to bigger cities (lower).

India is now pushing forward with plans to further unlock its containment measures to focus on the economy. However, daily reported news cases of coronavirus surpassed 8000 for the first time on Sunday 31 May 2020. How well its more relaxed lockdown rules will work won’t be seen for a few weeks. While this plays out we’ll end with quote from HM Bangur that will resonate with cement producers everywhere: “sales are imperative.”

Azerbaijan: Cement producers produced 0.91Mt of cement in the first quarter of 2020, down by 8.7% year-on-year from 1Mt in the first quarter of 2019. Ready-mix concrete production rose by 9.9% to 0.46Mt from 0.51Mt, while the total value of construction materials produced fell by 4.5% year-on-year to US$120m from US$126m. The decline was attributed to a decrease in demand due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Dominican Republic: Cement companies produced 5.6Mt of cement in 2019, up by 4% year-on-year from 5.4Mt in 2018. This corresponds to 82% utilisation of the Dominican domestic capacity of 6.9Mt/yr. The Dominican Association of Portland Cement Producers (ADOCEM) said that domestic cement consumption rose by 7.2% to 4.7Mt from 4.3Mt.

US: The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has reported that total US cement shipments in the first three months of 2020 were 20.9Mt, up by 7.9% year-on-year from 19.4Mt. Imported cement accounted for 2.98Mt (14%) of shipments over the period, up by 22% from 24.4Mt.

The USGS said, “Measures instituted to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic may cause disruptions in the cement industry across the United States and around the world. However, no US cement plant closures or idlings were reported in March 2020.”

Vietnam: Producers sold 29.2Mt of cement between 1 January and 30 April 2020, down by 7% year-on-year from 27.3Mt over the corresponding period of 2019. The Vietnam National Cement Corporation (VICEM) has reported that domestic sales fell by 4% to 19.3Mt (66% of total sales) and exports fell by 11% to 9.90Mt (34%), according to the Việt Nam News newspaper. April 2020 cement sales were just 8.08Mt, including 2.42Mt of exports, due to the effects of the coronavirus lockdown on cement demand from construction.

Puerto Rico: Puerto Rico’s two cement plants produced 37,100t of cement in March and April 2020, down by 55% year-on-year from 83,300t in March and April 2019. Domestic consumption over the period was 41,700t, down by 58% year-on-year from 98,800t. Esmerk Latin American News has reported that the decreases were caused by the suspension of construction work due to the government’s coronavirus lockdown.