Global Cement News

The Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI) has announced its aim to reduce CO₂ emissions by clinker producers by 20 - 25% by 2030. It made the announcement as part of a new action plan launched on 8 December 2015 at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21).

Most of the plan follows the CSI's existing aims announced to chime with the on-going COP21 negotiations. The plan depends on a long-term agreement being brokered successfully in Paris at COP21 as a whole. It then recommends policy in each of its key areas to achieve its goals. All of this sits beneath a general policy statement to, '...encourage policies for predictable, objective, level-playing and stable CO₂ constraints and incentives as well as energy frameworks on an international level.'

The Cement Action Plan is part of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development Low Carbon Technology Partnerships initiative (LCTPi). It puts together a series of measures to aspire to reduce CO₂ emissions by 1Gt by 2030 compared to business as usual. However this reduction is dependent on the entire cement industry getting involved, not just the existing 26 CSI members. Together these 26 members represent just a quarter of world cement production.

The drop in emissions is based on the so-called 'best-in-class' CSI company 2020 targets. To reach this the CSI is suggesting actions including focusing on recording Chinese cement industry emissions and energy usage, improving energy efficiency, promoting co-processing of alternative fuels, further lowering the clinker factor of cements, developing new low-energy and low-carbon cements, looking at the entire build chain to reduce emissions and considering other options such as carbon capture and storage. The plan had the support of the CEOs of 16 cement companies at its launch, with CNBM CEO Song Zhiping adding his assent at the event also.

The most prominent step is the clear focus on China for data capture using existing CSI tools such as the CO₂ and Energy Accounting and Reporting Standard for the Cement Industry, the Getting the Numbers Right (GNR) and the Cement Technology Roadmaps. As the CSI puts it, "What gets measured gets managed."

Given that China produces around 60% of the world's cement, according to United States Geological Survey data, the focus on China is essential. Currently the CSI has six Chinese members: CNBM, Sinoma, China Resources, Tianrui Group, West China Cement and Yati Group. Notable exceptions to CSI membership from the world's biggest cement producers include the Chinese producers Anhui Conch and Taiwan Cement, as well as Russia's Eurocement and India's Aditya Birla Group.

So, the CSI has set out its stall ahead of a hoped-for global agreement on climate change at the Paris conference. If some sort of legal agreement is reached then the CSI has its recommendations ready in the wings to hand to policymakers everywhere to promote its aims. If no agreement is reached then the plan loses momentum although pushing forwards makes sense where possible, starting with better CO₂ data reported especially in China.

Problems lie ahead for the CSI whatever happens in Paris given that the LCTPi Cement Action Plan is a series of policy suggestions from only 16 cement producers aiming for a non-binding target. For example, without some sort of world legal agreement there are clear commercial advantages for non-CSI members to burn cheap fossil fuels in their kilns and undercut their more environmentally pious rivals. The sustaining low cost of oil, dipping below US$40/barrel this week, can only aggravate this situation and distract the strategies of fuel buyers away from co-processing upgrades.

This week we got our first real sense of how things are going at the new global cement leader LafargeHolcim. The group released its first 'combined' results, which cover the third quarter of the year and the nine month period to 30 September 2015.

First impressions are that LafargeHolcim is having a tough time of it, struggling, as many cement industry players are, with an increasingly tricky and uneven global market. It reported a fall in net sales and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the first nine months of 2015, compared to the same period of 2014. Cement sales were also down by 1.3%. The group said that lower than expected demand was the reason behind lower sales, particularly in China and Brazil, which continue to struggle economically. It also picked out India as a country where momentum was lacking.

Of course, it's not all bad. While net sales were down, they were only down very slightly, by 0.6% year-on-year in the first nine months. Many a cement producer would love to pull in Euro20.4bn in sales and ship 189Mt of cement in just nine months! And, after a sticky start to the year, the picture is improving in some regions, with third quarter performance buoyed by improving fortunes in Asia, excluding China and India. LafargeHolcim was able to continue banking on the strong recovery in North America and parts of Europe, where some markets, such as the UK, continue to buck the otherwise depressing trend.

While these results will be a concern they are by no means horrific. However, they have already given rise to (or at least sped up) LafargeHolcim's future divestment plans. According to Dow Jones, LafargeHolcim plans to raise Euro3.23bn in 2016 from selling off assets, around half as much as Lafarge and Holcim had to sell to allow the merger to go through. The company has reportedly started discussions with interested parties, including private-equity firms and industry rivals about some of the assets. The proceeds will be returned to shareholders through dividends or share buybacks, according to CEO Eric Olsen.

Which assets will be divested remains to be seen. However, it reportedly won't involve LafargeHolcim's assets in Australia and New Zealand, at least in the short term. In the past week or so local media has reported that LafargeHolcim's assets in the two countries were to be sold off. However, since then Holcim Australia's Chief Executive Mark Campbell said the company was 'not currently being sold.' Campbell also added that he couldn't rule out a possible sale in the future.

So, while being clear that LafargeHolcim has no plans to sell its Australian and New Zealand assets at the moment, what could happen if it did? The starting point is complex, especially in Australia. According to the Global Cement Directory 2016, there are six operational integrated cement plants and 12 grinding plants in the country, which share a combined 13.9Mt/yr of cement capacity. LafargeHolcim has a 50% interest in Cement Australia's 4.0Mt of cement capacity, giving it 2Mt/yr of capacity and around 14% of national capacity. The other 50% of Cement Australia is owned by HeidelbergCement. Other major players include Adelaide Brighton, which has 2.3Mt/yr in its own name and a 50% stake in Independent Cement, and Boral Cement, which owns 2.3Mt/yr of capacity outright and 50% of SunState Cement's 1.5Mt/yr of capacity. In New Zealand there are two integrated plants, one operated by Golden Bay Cement and one by LafargeHolcim. The latter, however, is due to be closed in 2016.

If LafargeHolcim was to leave the mix in Australia, it is possible that neither Adelaide Brighton nor Boral would be able to take over its share, due to their already-large market presences. This may leave the door open for other regional players, perhaps a Chinese player looking to exit that country's rapidly-declining domestic market? Cemex is contracting and still heavily indebted, leaving it out of the running. While it is also possible that assets could be sold to private equity firms, another interested player could be Ireland's CRH, with 'cash to burn' and recent disappointment from its failure to buy Lafarge and Holcim's former assets in India.

Of course, if the assets aren't for sale, it won't be possible to buy them, meaning that for now the above is just speculation. However, the quick analysis above does highlight the relative lack of viable cement industry suitors in this region. If LafargeHolcim does ever decide to sell in this region, it might find the assets hard to shift.

Sri Lanka: Harsha Cabral was appointed as the Director of Tokyo Cement Company Lanka one year ago on 1 December 2014. Cabral was appointed to the Board in March 2009

Australia: Martin Brydon has been appointed the Managing Director of Adelaide Brighton. He is currently the Chief Executive Office of the Australian construction materials company.

Brydon, aged 60, trained in electrical and electronic engineering with BHP before completing a Masters Degree in Business Administration and the Stanford Executive Program in the USA in 1998.

Brydon joined Cockburn Cement Limited as an Electrical Engineer in 1981. In 1998 he was appointed Cockburn Cement Limited's Chief Executive Officer. Following Cockburn Cement's merger into Adelaide Brighton in 1999, Brydon became the Group General Manager for the Western Division.

In 2001, Martin was appointed to the position of General Manager, Strategy and Business Development for the Adelaide Brighton group of companies. In 2005, Martin was appointed to the position of Executive General Manager, Cement and Lime at Adelaide Brighton and in 2014 in became its Chief Executive Officer.

Nine-month financial results from the major Brazilian cement producers have been reported this week and they are not looking good. The local construction market is weak and cement sales volumes are down. This has been blamed on a 30% shrinkage of real estate financing and a 20% decrease in infrastructure works.

Votorantim has seen its cement sales volumes drop by 4% year-on-year to 26.7Mt for the first nine months of 2015. InterCement has seen its cement and clinker sales volumes drop by 7.2% to 21.1Mt. LafargeHolcim has reported unspecified declines in its cement sector in its disappointing third quarter results.

Overall, the Sindicato Nacional Da Indústria Do Cimento (SNIC) - Brazil's cement industry body, has reported that domestic cement sales fell by 7.7% to 49.2Mt for the period. Particular sales drops by region have been observed in the Midwest (5.8Mt, -11.2%) and the Southeast (22.8Mt, -9.4%). That last region, Southeast, is pertinent given that it contains the country's biggest cement producing state, Minas Gerais.

Votorantim has been pointing out all year that its costs are soaring due to issues in Brazil. Maintenance costs, energy-related costs and the impact of the depreciation of the Brazilian Real on petcoke were all hitting costs. Net revenue has grown so far in 2015, with a growth of 5% to US$2.75bn, mainly due to the company's geographic spread outside of Brazil.

InterCement has noted that new cement production capacity in north-eastern and southern markets have reduced its sales volumes and prices by 1.7%. It too has experienced a rise in energy costs, pegged to the US Dollar. To act against this InterCement is implementing adjustment measures including suspending production at two grinding units and the closure of concrete units.

Alongside this Camargo Corrêa, the Brazilian construction group that owns InterCement, has been planning to sell a stake in InterCement to pay off debt since at least mid-2015. At the time local media reported that Camargo Corrêa planned to sell 10 – 18% of Intercement for between US$648m and US$1.17bn. CEO Vitor Hallack confirmed this week that Camargo Corrêa is still looking for a buyer. In the meantime it has extended US$536m of its short-term debt.

All of this is mirrored by wider economic woes in the country. In October 2015 the International Monetary Fund projected a 3% drop in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2015. The situation has been blamed on a wider world economy, the slowing Chinese economy and internal factors.

Back on cement, in July 2015, SNIC announced that domestic cement demand could contract by 10 - 15% in 2015 and that consumption could fall to around 60Mt in 2016. Brazil's cement production capacity currently stands at 70.75Mt/yr. Perhaps not coincidentally LafargeHolcim announced a 'portfolio optimisation' in its third quarter results with asset sales of US$3.5bn in 2016. Brazil may be on that list.

For more information on the Brazilian cement industry look out for our report in the December 2015 issue of Global Cement Magazine