Displaying items by tag: Government
Update on Indonesia, July 2023
19 July 2023The government in Indonesia made building new cement capacity harder this week. The new rules are intended to strengthen the local sector in the face of a utilisation rate of only 53%. A moratorium policy and/or new investment arrangements have been placed on new cement plant projects. Instead, companies have been asked to focus on the regions of Papua, West Papua, Maluku and North Maluku instead, where demand for cement is higher than what the local production base can produce. Ignatius Warsito, the Director General of the Chemical, Pharmaceutical and Textile Industry at the Ministry of Industry, said that the new rules would be reconsidered once the capacity utilisation rate reaches 85%.
Other measures the government is also looking at include increasing exports of cement, changing regulations related to the coal Public Service Agency (BLU) and improving overland transport. On that last point the authorities and the cement producers are looking at how logistics costs can avoid rising in the face of the impending Zero Over Dimension Over Load (ODOL) policy. Proposals the sector has submitted include implementing a multi-axle policy for trucks and improving the quality of certain roads to allow for higher capacity vehicles.
As one of the government’s focus areas - coal - suggests, fuel prices have been a headache for the cement sector in recent years. Warsito noted that international coal prices started to rise in late 2020. This was likely due to the logistical mess that the coronavirus pandemic caused to the global economy. Higher coal prices caused a “significant” effect on the cement industry through both higher production costs and restrictions on supplies. One irony to note here is that Indonesia is one of the world’s leading coal producers. Donny Arsal, the head of Semen Indonesia, told the government in 2022 that the war in Ukraine had enticed local coal companies to export more coal due to the rising international price. At this time he lobbied the administration to use its local domestic market obligation (DMO) subsidy to better serve the cement sector by giving it more coal at a fixed price.
Graph 1: Cement demand and capacity in Indonesia. Source: Semen Indonesia and Indonesia Cement Association.
Overcapacity has been a recurring feature of the Indonesian cement market since at least the 1990s as the demand and capacity have grown sometimes out of step. The capacity utilisation rate reached 90% in the early 1990s only to fall to 50% by the end of that decade due to the Asian financial crisis. More recently Holcim left the market in 2019 when it sold its business to the Semen Indonesia. The state-owned company consolidated more than half of the country’s cement production capacity at the time. According to its data for the first quarter of 2023 it has a 51% market share and a 46% production capacity share. It also said that 92% of local demand was catered for from four of the country’s 14 producers, namely: Semen Indonesia; Indocement; Conch; and Merah Putih.
A recent study by the Jakarta Post newspaper suggested that after a poor first half in 2023, cement demand was expected to rebound and create modest overall annual growth by the end of the year. The key reasons for this outlook are increased government infrastructure spending, ongoing work on the new capital city Nusantara and anticipated price stability. The new city project, for example, is expected to require 1.6Mt of cement in the 2022 - 2024 period. Risk factors, of course, abound such as a global economic slowdown, financial problems at some of the government-owned construction companies like Waskita Karya and new capacity. A new 8Mt/yr (!) plant owned by local company Kobexindo and China-based Honshi Cement, for instance, is scheduled to start operation in the second half of 2023 in East Kalimantan. Even though the government says that the new unit will export 90% of its production, it will place pressure on other existing sites hoping to increase exports.
The country’s largest cement producer being majority owned by the government is a pertinent feature here given that the same government has also effectively banned new capacity. Semen Indonesia’s earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) have fallen each year consecutively since 2020. As mentioned above overcapacity has long been present in the local sector and recent events have made it worse. Yet, the companies that are likely to benefit the most from a block on newer, competitive cement plants are likely to be the established players. That said, though, with the utilisation just above 50% and new projects like the Kobexindo-Honshi plant on the way, the government likely feels it has to take some form of action. Other tools at its disposal include a national carbon exchange set to launch in September 2023. Power companies will participate from the start with cement producers anticipated to follow at a later stage. Despite the uncertain short-to-medium term outlook the cement sector in Indonesia remains one of the largest in the world with plenty of business to be done. Denmark-based FLSmidth was clearly mindful of this when it opened a new office in Jakarta in April 2023.
Tajikistan: The government ordered the immediate shutdown of Tajikcement’s Dushanbe cement plant ‘due to serious air pollution’ on 18 July 2023. Asia-PLUS News has reported that the suspension will likely last until the end of 2023. The government has indicated that an upgrade to the plant’s equipment would be necessary for it to be able to reopen. It previously stated that the plant would have to shut down altogether and relocate to a new site, to be replaced by a confectionary factory.
Malaysia: YTL Cement and Thailand-based SCG have signed a memorandum of understanding with Innocement, a joint venture between the Sarawak Economic Development Corporation (SEDC) and the Bintulu Development Authority (BDA). The agreement is intended to strengthen the cement supply chain, secure the reliability of supply and stabilise prices in the region, according to the Star newspaper. In January 2023 representatives of the SEDC and the BDA had visited SCG in Bangkok. At this time it was reported that a joint venture between the SEDC and the BDA wanted to import 0.5 – 1Mt/yr of cement from SCG.
Salonit Anhovo to become Alpacem Cement Slovenia
19 July 2023Slovenia: Salonit Anhovo has announced a planned name change to Alpacem Cement Slovenia. STAkrog News has reported that the inclusion of the word ‘Slovenia’ will require special government approval. The company said that Alpacem better reflects its ownership, while Cement reflects its core activity.
Salonit Anhovo is 75% owned by Austria-based Wietersdorfer Alpacem and 25% owned by Italy-based Buzzi.
Government to inspect Sinji-Pirim Cement's Sinji-Pirim cement plant over smoke emissions
18 July 2023Kyrgyzstan: The Ministry of Natural Resources, Environment and Technical Supervision has requested an inspection of Sinji-Pirim's Sinji-Pirim cement plant in Osh Region's Aravan District. Central Asia News has reported that a video emerged on social media showing smoke rising from pipes at the plant on 6 July 2023.
Sinji-Pirim Cement has operated the Sinji-Pirim cement plant since March 2018.
Kenya: The government says that it has found a 'strategic investor' to buy a 30% stake in East African Portland Cement Company (EAPCC). Business Daily News has reported that the buyer will acquire shares from the National Treasury, the National Social Security Fund (NSSF) and Lafarge South Africa. The government holds 25% of EAPCC's shares through the Treasury, while the NSSF holds 27% and Lafarge South Africa 42%.
Lafarge South Africa denied that it plans to sell any of its shares in EAPCC. Chief executive officer Geoffrey Ndugwa said "We are not aware that we will be ceding shares.”
The government said that shareholders currently face the decision to sell EAPCC's land, seek a bailout from the Treasury or liquidate the company. It expects shareholders to reach a decision and establish a comprehensive plan for the company by 17 August 2023.
Indonesia: The Indonesian cement industry produced 29.3Mt of cement during the first half of 2023. This corresponds to a utilisation rate of 51% across an installed national capacity of 116Mt/yr. Throughout 2022, the industry produced 64Mt of cement and recorded a utilisation rate of 55%. Local capacity utilisation levels in the first half of 2023 were as low as 45% in some regions. Only Bali-Nusa Tenggara Region and Maluku-Papua Region did not suffer from overcapacity. National demand was 28Mt in the first half of 2023 and 63Mt throughout 2022. Meanwhile, first-half exports rose by 12% year-on-year in opening six months of 2023.
Indonesia Government News has reported that the Ministry of Industry has instigated a moratorium on investments in the construction of new cement capacity. Director general Ignatius Warsito said "These efforts can provide legal certainty for cement industry players in the country, as well as support competitiveness." Warsito noted the health of Indonesia's existing export markets for cement, but noted the uncertainty of the industry's coal supply and its price. Coal currently accounts for 40% of Indonesian cement's fuel consumption by value.
Germany: The EU Innovation Fund has granted funding to the GeZero carbon capture project at Heidelberg Materials' Geseke cement plant in North Rhine-Westphalia. The project consists of a 700,000t/yr carbon capture system and an oxyfuel kiln upgrade. A captive solar power plant will provide energy for the new systems. CO2 storage partner Wintershall Dea will receive purified liquefied CO2 from the capture system via its Wilhelmshaven distribution hub for storage under the North Sea.
Heidelberg Materials Germany general manager Christian Knell said “This project sets an important milestone for the cement industry and for effective carbon management in Germany. We are now counting on the tailwind of Germany’s future Carbon Management Strategy and the regulatory framework to come.”
CEO Dominik von Achten added “With GeZero, we will once again show how Heidelberg Materials’ pioneering spirit is paving the way for the decarbonisation of our industry. We will be the first to realise a full CCS chain for the capture, transport and permanent storage of all CO₂ emissions from an inland location in Germany. I appreciate the support of the EU Innovation Fund, which expresses both an important recognition and the required backing from the political side.”
The close of the first half of 2023 brought the latest crop of seasonal cement data from the Vietnam National Cement Association (VNCA). Vietnam sold 61.4Mt of cement and clinker during the first half of 2023, up by 2.7% year-on-year.1 Graph 1 (below) tracks the progress of full-year Vietnamese cement and clinker sales over the six years up to 2022, as well as the most recent half-year.
Graph 1 - Vietnamese annual cement production, January 2017 – June 2023
The first half of 2023 marks the first half-year in which lockdown restrictions have been absent in both Vietnam and its main export market, China, since the start of the Covid-19 outbreak.2 Vietnam was especially hard-hit: it implemented the first lockdown outside of China in March 2020, and has recorded the 13th most Covid-19 cases of any country up to July 2023. Then, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused uncertainties for cement producers and importers all around the world. Yet the price of imported coal across Southeast Asia had returned to pre-war levels by the end of June 2023.3 This indicates that the first half of 2023 may represent a ‘typical’ first half for the Vietnamese cement industry, for the first time this decade. During the 2010s, this meant growth margins of over 10% year-on-year.
During the first half of 2023, Vietnam’s sales volumes grew by 30% from pre-Covid-19 levels of 47.1Mt in the first half of 2019, confirming the industry trend of rapid capacity expansion. Just in the course of the half year, Vietnam’s integrated cement capacity rose by 7.9% to 123Mt/yr.4 It previously rose by 6.9% year-on-year to 114Mt/yr in 2022. That year, first-half cement sales also grew by 6.9% year-on-year, to 59.8Mt from 55.9Mt. In the first half of 2023, capacity growth has outstripped the country’s sales growth, of 2.7% year-on-year.
Meanwhile, Vietnam exported 15.7Mt of cement and clinker in the first half of 2023, 26% of its total despatches.5 This corresponds to a decline of 31% year-on-year from 22.7Mt (38% of despatches) in the first half of 2022 and a rise of 0.5% from pre-Covid-19 levels of 15.6Mt (33%) in the first half of 2019.
Chinese construction is the lynchpin in the Vietnamese cement industry’s current growth model. Over successive Five-Year Plans, it has consumed increasing volumes of clinker from Vietnam, as well as cement, at diminishing prices. This strategy overreached itself in the first quarter of 2023, more than a year into an on-going Chinese property market slump, when the value of Vietnam’s cement and clinker exports to the country fell by 95% year-on-year, to US$11.4m.6
By lowering prices, Vietnam’s cement sector charts a careful course within the contested waters of global trade rules, but it has run aground before. Most recently, from the start of 2023, the Philippines attached tariffs of up to 28% (and up to 55% for blended cement) to Vietnamese cement from 11 different producers.7 The Philippines Tariff Commission had found that ‘dumped’ cement from Vietnam – constituting over 50% of cement imports over the 18 months up to the end of 2020 – threatened the domestic industry. The failure to diversify its markets is a further sign that Vietnam’s current positioning in the cement and clinker trade is, at best, medium-term.
From October 2023, cement entering the European Union (EU) will become subject to extra taxes under the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM).8 The EU is a relatively small trade partner for Vietnam, but the longer-term effect of this policy will be to replicate itself in the statute books of other nations and trade blocs, beginning in the Global North. With forecast lignite imports of 70 – 75Mt to Vietnam in 2023 – 2026, opportunities for cement exports from Vietnam, and countries like it, are diminishing.
The best situation for Vietnam would be accelerated growth in its domestic consumption base. The government is attempting to trigger a construction boom with its 2023 budget, which includes US$5bn in residential construction funding. Meanwhile, full-year infrastructure spending will rise by 25% year-on-year.9 To this end, it also needs to keep the cement price low. From 1 January 2023, Vietnamese exporters paid a tax of 10% of value on shipments of cement and clinker, instead of the previous 5% rate. If successful, this will nourish booming consumption with booming, and cheap, supply. Vietnam is grafting its Chinese model back onto the domestic market.
Producers will keep exporting. In May 2023, Nghi Son Cement Corporation despatched a first shipment of 31,500t of cement to the US. Nghi Son Cement Corporation’s cement, produced with fly ash, is clearly considered by the company and its owners to have some long-term marketability in the US. Said owners include Japan-based Taiheiyo Cement, which produces cement in the US via its CalPortland subsidiary.
In Vietnam, the cement industry has undergone a period of unparalleled growth, fuelled by exports. It can now reinvest the proceeds in establishing a self-sufficient construction sector around an ever more sustainable cement industry, ready to become the first choice across new markets as they arise in Southeast Asia and beyond.
1. Global Cement, 'Vietnam's first-half cement production declines in 2023,' 29 June 2023, https://www.globalcement.com/news/item/15941-vietnam-s-first-half-cement-production-declines-in-2023
2. The Observer, ‘‘It was all for nothing’: Chinese count cost of Xi’s snap decision to let Covid rip,’ 29 January 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/29/chinese-cost-covid-xi-lockdowns-china
3. Reuters, ‘Column: Asia thermal coal prices get the blues from Europe and LNG,’ 20 June 2023, https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/asia-thermal-coal-prices-get-blues-europe-lng-russell-2023-06-20/
4. Việt Nam News, ‘Record input costs thwart cement groups,’ 12 July 2023, https://global.factiva.com/ha/default.aspx?mod=SavedSearch_SelectSearch&page_driver=SavedSearch_SelectSearch#./!?&_suid=168119771197707004455190223307
5. Việt Nam News, ‘Industry: Vietnam’s Cement, Clinker Exports +82.2% y/y to $116M in Jun: GSO,’ 4 July 2023, https://global.factiva.com/ha/default.aspx?page_driver=searchBuilder_Search#./!?&_suid=168908188871006418595282713178
6. Vietnam Investment Review, ‘A strenuous year ahead in cement,’ 9 May 2023, https://vir.com.vn/a-strenuous-year-ahead-in-cement-101707.html
7. Global Cement, 'Philippines Department of Trade and Industry to impose anti-dumping duties on cement from Vietnam,' 22 December 2022, https://www.globalcement.com/news/item/15084-philippines-department-of-trade-and-industry-to-impose-anti-dumping-duties-on-cement-from-vietnam
8. Global Cement, 'Too taxing? How the CBAM affects cement exporters to the EU,’ 29 June 2022, https://www.globalcement.com/news/item/14316-too-taxing-how-the-cbam-affects-cement-exporters-to-the-eu
9. Customs News, ‘Cement enterprises expect a "brighter" second half of 2023
https://english.haiquanonline.com.vn/cement-enterprises-expect-a-brighter-second-half-of-2023-25368.html
Vietnam: The People’s Committee of Hoa Binh Province authorised Xuan Khiem Group to begin building its Xuan Son cement plant earlier in July 2023. Việt Nam News has reported that the upcoming plant will commence operations in late 2024, and will have a capacity of 2.3Mt/yr.