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Update on Kenya, September 2022
28 September 2022Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote was spotted attending the inauguration ceremony of Kenyan President William Ruto earlier in September 2022. This is relevant because Dangote’s cement company previously announced plans in 2016 to build two 1.5Mt/yr plants in Kenya, near Nairobi and Mombasa respectively. They were intended to become operational by 2021. Unfortunately, Dangote himself allegedly described Kenya as being more corrupt than Nigeria to Kenyan broadcast journalist Jeff Koinange a few years later and nothing more happened. Back in 2014 Ruto visited Dangote Cement’s Obajana plant in Kogi state in Nigeria when the politician was the Deputy President of Kenya. Dangote’s attendance at the presidential inauguration this month suggests at the very least that his relationship with Ruto remains active. Maybe more news on those planned plants will follow.
Graph 1: Cement in Kenya, 2018 – June 2022. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).
The reason why the owner of Africa’s largest cement company might be interested in the Kenyan market can be seen in its latest cement production figures. Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that production for the first half of 2022 grew by 20% year-on-year to 4.95Mt in the first half of 2022, from 4.12Mt in the same period in 2021. Cement production was broadly similar in 2018 and 2019 at around 6Mt. It then increased by 25% to 9.25Mt in 2021 from 7.41Mt in 2020. On a rolling annual basis, production picked up at the start of 2020 and has risen consistently since then each month, peaking at over 10Mt in May 2022.
However, the elections in August 2022 probably slowed this growth trend, despite being much more peaceful than those in 2007, although the KNBS is yet to release the data. Bamburi Cement said in its outlook for the second half of 2022 that it expected markets to recover after the ballot. The subsidiary of Holcim reported increasing turnover in the first half of 2022, due to mounting sales volumes and price rises, but its profit fell sharply. It blamed this on fuel and logistics inflation, growing clinker import costs as well as negative currency exchange effects.
That last point about imported clinker is worth noting given that a government report in late 2021 found that the country had a clinker shortage of up to 3.3Mt/yr. Yet, the KNBS data in recent years shows that cement production and consumption are broadly similar, suggesting that the shortfall in clinker is being imported. The report added that 59% of the imported clinker originated from Egypt, tariff free, due to a free trade agreement. Local producers were reported to have been operating at a 65% capacity utilisation rate. Egypt and the UAE accounted for most of the imported clinker followed by Saudi Arabia. An interview in the Standard newspaper at this time with Bamburi Cement’s managing director Seddiq Hassani revealed that, despite locally produced clinker being cheaper than imported clinker, some producers were reluctant to hand control of a key input material over to their local competitors. Other producers, predictably, were trying to persuade the government to raise the duty on imports of clinker from 10% to 25%. Tariff discussions have continued in 2022.
So far in 2022 the other big stories in the sector have included Bamburi Cement’s plans to build two solar power plants and a major repair to the kiln shell at East Africa Portland Cement’s (EAPCC) Athi River cement plant. The solar plants will be built next to Bamburi Cement’s integrated Mombasa plant and its Nairobi grinding plant. Once operational in 2023 they are anticipated to supply up to 40% of the cement producer’s total power supply. Devki Group, the owner of National Cement, also announced plans in August 2022 to set up a wind farm near Mombasa. However, this seems more like an attempt to diversify the group into electricity production rather than to supply its own plant near Nairobi. EAPCC’s upgrade project has completed this week after about a month and half of work. It is intended to increase the plant’s cement production by 50%.
Cement production started in rise in 2020 but the Covid-19 pandemic may have constrained this. Production (and consumption) then jumped up in 2021 and looks set to do similar in 2022 bar a possible blip from the elections in August 2022. This is despite the global market issues arising from the end of Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. These may be uncertain times but the fundamentals for the Kenyan cement market look positive despite rising end prices. Unsurprisingly, it looks likely that Dangote Cement remains keen to extend its business to Kenya.
Armenia to reduce cement and clinker tariffs
12 September 2022Armenia: The tariff on cement imports has been reduced by 35% to US$22/t, from US$34/t previously, following changes to import rules by the government. Imports of clinker will be subject to no tariffs.
News.am has reported that seven-month cement imports to Armenia rose by 1.7% year-on-year in the period up to 31 August 2022, to 84.7Mt from 83Mt. The cause of the growth is variously the cancellation of an income tax refund on mortgages from 1 July 2022, the increased immigration of Russian citizens into Armenia and the growth of tourism.
Australia: James Hardie recorded sales of US$1bn in the first quarter of its 2023 financial year, up by 19% year-on-year from US$843m in the first quarter of its 2022 financial year. Its net profit was US$163m, up by 34% from US$121m. The group increased its North America fibre cement board sales by 28% to US$740m, its Asia Pacific fibre cement board sales by 9% to US$140m and its Europe building products sales by 7% to US$112. James Hardie launched its new European subsidiary James Hardie Fiber Cement Europe during the quarter.
James Hardie lowered its full-year adjusted net profit forecast to US$730 – 780m from US$740 – 820m. Interim chief executive officer Harold Wiens said "The current calendar year has seen the macro-economic environment change around us quite significantly, with unprecedented levels of inflation, global supply chain disruptions and a war in Europe. The current macro-economic environment is not only creating uncertainty for the housing markets in all three regions we do business in, but it is also putting pressure on our fiscal year 2023 financial results due to increased input and freight costs. That said, we are confident we will be able to deliver growth above market and strong returns in fiscal year 2023, and that is reflected in our updated guidance we provided today, which at its midpoint represents 22% growth in adjusted net income versus the prior year."
Philippines: Eagle Cement’s sales rose by 24% year-on-year to US$246m in the first half of its 2023 financial year from US$199m a year earlier. Its income was US$53.4m, down by 20% year-on-year from US$66.6m. Eagle Cement attributed the decline to cost impacts resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and bottlenecks in global supply chains. Its operating expenses were US$26.1m, up by 35% year-on-year.
India imports record 2.03Mt of coal from Russia in July 2022
05 August 2022India: India imported 2.03Mt of coal from Russia in July 2022, making the widely sanctioned nation its third largest source of coal that month. The figure represents a 10% month-on-month increase from 1.85Mt-worth of Russian coal imports in June 2022. The Economic Times newspaper has reported that the single largest importer of thermal coal in July 2022 was UltraTech Cement, with 170,000t.
Buzzi Unicem’s profitability drops except in Czech Republic and Russia in first half of 2022
04 August 2022Italy: Buzzi Unicem recorded a net profit of Euro88.7m in the first half of 2022, down by 58% year-on-year from Euro210m in the first half of 2021. The group said that its recurring profitability worsened across its markets, with the exception of Russia. It also noted ‘substantial stability’ in the Czech Republic. Its consolidated sales, including those of its Brazilian and Mexican businesses, were US$2.41bn, up by 18% from US$2.05bn.
The group recorded cement sales volumes of 14.2Mt, down by 4.1% from 14.8Mt. Volumes fell by 27% in Eastern Europe and by 28% in Italy, but rose by 27% in Central Europe and by 8% in the US. Excluding Russia, the producer’s fuel costs per tonne of cement rose by 8.8% year-on-year to approximately Euro8.80, and its total energy costs rose by 20% year-on-year to Euro234m.
It implemented continued price rises across all markets except Mexico during the half, with the sharpest rises recorded in Italy and Ukraine.
Doing business in Russia
03 August 2022A disturbing story has emerged this week concerning attempts by an unknown party to seize control of Holcim Russia. The situation marks a dangerous new phase for multinational companies operating in Russia. This includes a number of building materials producers and their suppliers.
The public side of events started on 26 July 2022 when Holcim Russia announced on its website that a legal case concerning an unpaid loan against it had been initiated at a court in Chechnya and that someone was also trying to change ownership documents with the Federal Tax Service. This was then followed by an interview by Forbes Russia with the new alleged owner of the construction materials company explaining how he had made the so-called acquisition. Holcim Russia immediately hit back hard with multiple and well researched reasons why this couldn’t be so. These included the supposed private investor’s apparent lack of a business past, a long criminal history, psychiatric records, social media accounts of an individual of seemingly modest means and so on. Kommersant FM has since reported that the court in Chechnya took the side of the asset raider but that both the Federal Security Service (FSB) and the Ministry of Industry and Trade are now investigating the case.
Taking loans from a mystery businessman with no apparent past does not look credible for a multinational like Holcim and its subsidiaries. This particular method was also flagged up by one of the legal sources quoted by Kommersant FM as a recognisable corporate scam in Russia dating back to the 2000s. What is more certain is that Holcim reported that it had a 100% interest in Holcim Russia in its annual report for 2021. It then said it was going to leave the Russian market in late March 2022 following the start of the war in Ukraine a month earlier. By May 2022 it said that it had attracted the interest of 30 possible buyers. Only this week Holcim’s chief executive officer Jan Jenisch confirmed in the company’s second quarter conference call that divestment discussions were 'active' and ongoing with a 'solution' expected in the coming months. The timing of Holcim Russia’s sudden difficulties is therefore noteworthy given that a potential buyer has not yet been publicly announced.
Whoever has tried their luck at taking over Holcim Russia has done so at a time when anti-Western sentiment is high in Russia. For example, the government attempted to pass a new law seizing the assets of Western companies trying to leave the country in July 2022. Any intervention by the authorities is likely to take some of this into account and they may be wary of helping an organisation with perceived European links. Naturally, the nationalist card was played up in the interview with Forbes Russia. For its part, Holcim Russia has commented that the ongoing 'illegal action' might lead to production delays for building materials supporting key housing and infrastructure projects. Whatever is going on it must be a tense time for Holcim Russia and its 1500 employees. We’ll leave the last word to Holcim Russia’s general manager Maxim Goncharov who has described the situation as the “theatre of the absurd.” He is not wrong.
Russia: Switzerland-based Holcim has written to multiple Russian government ministries to challenge a court ruling changing the benefactors of its Russian business. Local press has reported that the producer is subject to attempted assets raiding, with multiple anonymous submissions to the Russian Federal Tax Service requesting structural changes to its legal entities in Russia.
Holcim decided to leave the Russian market in March 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine.
Four Vietnamese cement line projects cancelled
13 July 2022Vietnam: High costs have resulted in the cancellation of four planned new integrated cement lines by a local cement producer. Viet Nam News has reported that the producer in question presently faces costs of US$59.9 - 64.1/t cement, with a net loss of US$8.55 - 10.30/t. Coal prices are US$237/t, more than triple those at the start of 2022 of US$85.5/t. Gypsum and diesel prices rose by 50% over the first half of 2022. The producer reportedly attributed the coal price rise to the effects of the Covid-19 conflict and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
India: UltraTech Cement has imported a 157,000t shipment of coal from Russia for US$25.8m, which it paid in Chinese Yuan. ET NOW News has reported that this is the first instance of an Indian entity using the currency in international trade. The deal has a value of US$164/t, 50% below average South African coal prices and 20% below average Australian cement prices in India. The deal reportedly signals the possible end of Indian coal prince inflation in the medium – long term.