Two new stories from Algeria this week highlight a changing industry. Firstly, Groupe Industriel des Ciments d’Algérie (GICA) started marketing cement from its new Sigus integrated plant. The unit was commissioned earlier in the year. Secondly, clinker export figures for the sector show 10-fold growth year-on-year to a value of US$30m for the first five months of 2019.
Graph 1: Cement production and capacity in Algeria, 2012 - 2018. Source: Algerian National Office of Statistics, United States Geological Survey, Global Cement Directory 2013 - 2019. Estimates supplied for 2017 and 2018.
Graph 1 above depicts the moment that lots of new production capacity started to be ordered and then commissioned in 2017. The Global Cement Directory lists new plant projects as they are announced so the trend from 2016 to 2017 may not be as pronounced as it seems but the general destination remains the same. A Ministry of Industry and Mining report estimated that production capacity would reach 40Mt/yr in 2020. Consumption was reported at 26Mt in 2016.
To cope with this the cement industry in Algeria has been moving towards an export model over the last few years. Industry and government figures started to warn of an end to imports in 2016. This quickly flipped to prognostications of production overcapacity in 2017. This then became a stream of news stories about export operations from the local industries to places like West Africa. One consequence of this were problems for foreign exporters in Tunisia and Spain, for example, as the Algerian market was shut off. Indeed, it must have been satisfying for state-producer and market leader GICA to announce that it was exporting cement to Europe in 2018!
Notably the local market has no cement grinding plants, yet this too has started to change. In May 2019 Algematco Steel ordered a modular Ready2Grind MVR vertical roller mill from Germany’s Gebr. Pfeiffer. Target markets for the exports identified by the Ministry of Industry and Mining included neighbouring Mali, Libya, Mauritania and Niger. However, only two of these countries are accessible by sea. Unfortunately, Libya’s resurgence in violence since April 2019 is unlikely to help the export market. The other countries share land borders with Algeria but no rail links. An overland export operation to Niger from a plant near Adrar was reported in early 2019 but feasibility on a large scale seems unlikely given the distances involved.
LafargeHolcim said in its 2018 financial report that its net sales were down in its Middle East and African region due to price pressure and lower volumes in oversupplied markets, particularly in Algeria, Iraq and Jordan. Bloomberg reported in February 2019 that LafargeHolcim was considering divesting assets in the region. However, LafargeHolcim’s exit from Southeast Asia may have since bought it some financial breathing room.
With Algeria facing a production capacity gap of at least 10Mt/yr it seems likely that foreign-backed producers like LafargeHolcim will suffer despite potential in the local economy. Nationally, the race is on to see if the industry can bring its cement to the sea and find new export markets.