Displaying items by tag: Overcapacity

The government in Indonesia made building new cement capacity harder this week. The new rules are intended to strengthen the local sector in the face of a utilisation rate of only 53%. A moratorium policy and/or new investment arrangements have been placed on new cement plant projects. Instead, companies have been asked to focus on the regions of Papua, West Papua, Maluku and North Maluku instead, where demand for cement is higher than what the local production base can produce. Ignatius Warsito, the Director General of the Chemical, Pharmaceutical and Textile Industry at the Ministry of Industry, said that the new rules would be reconsidered once the capacity utilisation rate reaches 85%.

Other measures the government is also looking at include increasing exports of cement, changing regulations related to the coal Public Service Agency (BLU) and improving overland transport. On that last point the authorities and the cement producers are looking at how logistics costs can avoid rising in the face of the impending Zero Over Dimension Over Load (ODOL) policy. Proposals the sector has submitted include implementing a multi-axle policy for trucks and improving the quality of certain roads to allow for higher capacity vehicles.

As one of the government’s focus areas - coal - suggests, fuel prices have been a headache for the cement sector in recent years. Warsito noted that international coal prices started to rise in late 2020. This was likely due to the logistical mess that the coronavirus pandemic caused to the global economy. Higher coal prices caused a “significant” effect on the cement industry through both higher production costs and restrictions on supplies. One irony to note here is that Indonesia is one of the world’s leading coal producers. Donny Arsal, the head of Semen Indonesia, told the government in 2022 that the war in Ukraine had enticed local coal companies to export more coal due to the rising international price. At this time he lobbied the administration to use its local domestic market obligation (DMO) subsidy to better serve the cement sector by giving it more coal at a fixed price.

Graph 1: Cement demand and capacity in Indonesia. Source: Semen Indonesia and Indonesia Cement Association.

Overcapacity has been a recurring feature of the Indonesian cement market since at least the 1990s as the demand and capacity have grown sometimes out of step. The capacity utilisation rate reached 90% in the early 1990s only to fall to 50% by the end of that decade due to the Asian financial crisis. More recently Holcim left the market in 2019 when it sold its business to the Semen Indonesia. The state-owned company consolidated more than half of the country’s cement production capacity at the time. According to its data for the first quarter of 2023 it has a 51% market share and a 46% production capacity share. It also said that 92% of local demand was catered for from four of the country’s 14 producers, namely: Semen Indonesia; Indocement; Conch; and Merah Putih.

A recent study by the Jakarta Post newspaper suggested that after a poor first half in 2023, cement demand was expected to rebound and create modest overall annual growth by the end of the year. The key reasons for this outlook are increased government infrastructure spending, ongoing work on the new capital city Nusantara and anticipated price stability. The new city project, for example, is expected to require 1.6Mt of cement in the 2022 - 2024 period. Risk factors, of course, abound such as a global economic slowdown, financial problems at some of the government-owned construction companies like Waskita Karya and new capacity. A new 8Mt/yr (!) plant owned by local company Kobexindo and China-based Honshi Cement, for instance, is scheduled to start operation in the second half of 2023 in East Kalimantan. Even though the government says that the new unit will export 90% of its production, it will place pressure on other existing sites hoping to increase exports.

The country’s largest cement producer being majority owned by the government is a pertinent feature here given that the same government has also effectively banned new capacity. Semen Indonesia’s earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) have fallen each year consecutively since 2020. As mentioned above overcapacity has long been present in the local sector and recent events have made it worse. Yet, the companies that are likely to benefit the most from a block on newer, competitive cement plants are likely to be the established players. That said, though, with the utilisation just above 50% and new projects like the Kobexindo-Honshi plant on the way, the government likely feels it has to take some form of action. Other tools at its disposal include a national carbon exchange set to launch in September 2023. Power companies will participate from the start with cement producers anticipated to follow at a later stage. Despite the uncertain short-to-medium term outlook the cement sector in Indonesia remains one of the largest in the world with plenty of business to be done. Denmark-based FLSmidth was clearly mindful of this when it opened a new office in Jakarta in April 2023.

Indonesia: The Indonesian cement industry produced 29.3Mt of cement during the first half of 2023. This corresponds to a utilisation rate of 51% across an installed national capacity of 116Mt/yr. Throughout 2022, the industry produced 64Mt of cement and recorded a utilisation rate of 55%. Local capacity utilisation levels in the first half of 2023 were as low as 45% in some regions. Only Bali-Nusa Tenggara Region and Maluku-Papua Region did not suffer from overcapacity. National demand was 28Mt in the first half of 2023 and 63Mt throughout 2022. Meanwhile, first-half exports rose by 12% year-on-year in opening six months of 2023.

Indonesia Government News has reported that the Ministry of Industry has instigated a moratorium on investments in the construction of new cement capacity. Director general Ignatius Warsito said "These efforts can provide legal certainty for cement industry players in the country, as well as support competitiveness." Warsito noted the health of Indonesia's existing export markets for cement, but noted the uncertainty of the industry's coal supply and its price. Coal currently accounts for 40% of Indonesian cement's fuel consumption by value.

Mining and materials company Afrimat said it was buying Lafarge South Africa this week. The assets it is acquiring include aggregate quarries, ready mix concrete (RMX) batching plants, one integrated cement plant, two cement grinding plants, cement terminals and fly-ash sources. The means of purchase is somewhat unusual, as Afrimat is paying around US$6m but it also appears to be taking responsibility for around US$50m of outstanding debt that Lafarge South Africa owes its parent company, Holcim. In a statement Afrimat’s chief executive officer (CEO) Andries van Heerden talked up the benefits for his company in terms of the boost to its aggregates and concrete businesses.

This is quite the change from 2012 when India-based Aditya Birla Group was reportedly looking into buying Lafarge South Africa. At this time the value for the business for a similar mix of assets, including 55 RMX plants and 20 quarries, was said to be to US$900m. Prior to this, Lafarge South Africa spent around US$170m in the late 2000s on increasing the production capacity at its integrated Lichtenburg plant and building its Randfontein grinding plant. Then in 2014, when the merger between Lafarge and Holcim was announced, Lafarge consolidated its Nigeria-based and South Africa-based operations as Lafarge Africa. It later decided to move the South African business to another Holcim subsidiary, Caricement, in 2019 to keep the business in Nigeria more profitable by reducing its debts. This transaction was valued at US$317m. At the time chair Mobolaji Balogun said that Lafarge South Africa’s operations had faced a challenging market in South Africa, with shrinking demand in an aggressively competitive sector. Afrimat is now buying Lafarge South Africa and its subsidiaries from Caricement.

Holcim isn’t alone in making an effort to sell up in South Africa. In April 2023 the Valor Econômico newspaper reported that Brazil-based InterCement was receiving offers for its remaining African-based assets in Mozambique and South Africa with a potential deal valued at around US$300m. InterCement runs Natal Portland Cement in South Africa, which operates one integrated plant and two grinding units. This follows the sale of its Egypt-based assets in January 2023 to an unnamed buyer.

PPC, the country’s largest cement producer, is staying put. However, it issued a mixed trading update this week ahead of the formal release of its annual results to 31 March 2023. Trading conditions in the interior of South Africa and Botswana were described as being ‘difficult,’ with cement sales volumes down by nearly 6% year-on-year and earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) down by 26%. Yet the group says it was able to grow its revenue. PPC’s CEO Roland van Wijnen added, “We therefore remain hopeful that the South African government will roll out its infrastructure development plans and protect the local cement market through the introduction of import tariffs to create a level playing field for domestic producers.” Dangote Cement subsidiary Sephaku Cement was more circumspect in its recent trading update but it too warned that, “deteriorating economic conditions and persistent challenges in the cement industry impacted Sephaku Cement’s financial performance to break-even levels.”

Much of the above makes for gloomy reading. As the local trade association Cement and Concrete South Africa (CCSA) has laid out to local media, the market faces the problem of having 20Mt/yr of production capacity, 12Mt/yr of demand and over 1Mt/yr of imports compounding the problem. Lobbying by local producers against imports has been a feature of the market since the early 2010s and this work continues through the efforts of the CCSA and others. However, the plea by PPC for government infrastructure spending suggests that the market faces more systemic problems. As a consequence some cement producers are trying to leave the market, while others are attempting to tough it out.

The Chinese cement sector had a tough time in 2022. This was confirmed this week as the large domestic cement producers released their financial results. Revenue was down, profits fell and cement sales volumes tumbled. The key causes included the continuation of the country’s zero-coronavirus policy, the declining real estate market and rising input costs for raw materials such as coal. Demand for cement withered and so did the fortunes of the cement companies.

Graph 1: Cement output in China, 2018 to 2022. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows that cement output fell by 9.8% year-on-year to 2.13Bnt in 2022 from 2.36Bnt in 2021. The greater decrease was in the first half of the year rather than the second. The China Cement Association (CCA) said that this was nearly the lowest output in the last decade and the largest decline since 1969 ! The National Bureau of Statistics of China also pointed out in a release that, despite investment in fixed assets increasing by around 5% in 2022 and national infrastructure spending growing by 9%, real estate development investment dropped by 10% to US$1.46Tn.

Graph 2: Sales revenue from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

Graph 3: Sales volumes of cement and clinker from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

The cement producers warned in their forecasts that the results for 2022 were going to be rough and so it came to pass. China National Building Material (CNBM)’s revenue fell by 16% year-on-year to US$33.4bn in 2022 and Anhui Conch’s sales fell by 21% to US$19.2bn in 2022. Although, Tangshang Jidong Cement and Huaxin Cement reported declines of income or revenue in single digits. Profits halved for all of the companies covered here. Various combinations of the reasons covered above were cited for the situation.

What is more interesting are the responses some of the producers are making and what has gone well. CNBM, for example, is pinning its hopes on better staggered peak production and infrastructure projects. Anhui Conch, meanwhile, appears to have been diversifying its business by increasing both its concrete and solar power production capacity significantly in 2022. It was also announced that it plans to spend US$2.81bn on capital expenditure projects in 2023. China Resources Cement (CRC) said it had optimised its presence in South China through selected acquisition and divestments. Huaxin Cement has continued its focus on overseas markets with its share of operating revenue originating from outside China rising to 13% of the group’s total in 2022 compared to 8% in 2021. It also mentioned a number of unnamed projects around the world steadily drawing nearer to action. Sure enough, the group announced earlier in March 2023 that it was buying a majority stake in Oman Cement.

As for 2023, the CCA forecast in January 2023 that cement demand would be flat or slightly down. However, at the same time, provincial changes to the real estate market are expected to improve market conditions and infrastructure development will further drive demand for cement. The CCA identified that the cement sector’s production overcapacity could become an issue with lower demand. In 2022 the national clinker production utilisation rate was 65%, a fall of 10% from that in 2021. It also pointed out that peak-staggered production had actually helped cement producers generally to cope with smaller declines in profits compared to less well regulated industries.

Problems such as the zero-coronavirus policy, the real estate market and rising raw material costs have made the country’s production overcapacity issue worse. Changes are being made such as the national abandonment of the coronavirus lockdowns in late 2022, and, as mentioned above, the real estate market is being modified. In addition to this, various environmental changes are on the way, as the government works towards its sustainability goals. The country remains the largest cement producer in the world. Yet the message here is that we should expect more of the same for the cement sector in China in 2023.

China: China National Building Material's (CNBM) revenue fell by 16% year-on-year to US$33.4bn in 2022 from US$40.0bn in 2021. Its adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell by 31% to US$5.18bn from US$7.50bn. Sales from its cement and concrete business segments fell by 18% to US$16.0bn and 29% to US$5.25bn respectively. Adjusted EBITDA fell by 42% to US$2.89bn and 7% to US$470m. Its sales volumes of cement and clinker decreased by 15% to 316Mt from 373Mt. Sales volumes of concrete decreased by 24% to 84.7Mm³ from 112Mm³.

The group said that, “In 2022, the triple pressure from shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations persisted, and the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the development environment increased.” With regards to the building materials segment it blamed a declining real estate market, a poor economy and general poor demand in both the peak and off seasons. It added, “The downturn in demand has further aggravated the contradiction of overcapacity in the industry, with prices running low, coupled with a sharp rise in the cost of coal and other elements leading to escalating production costs, the production and operation situation was extremely critical.” In response the company is continuing to push for supply-side reform, promote precise staggered peak production, working on stablising the market and seeking out opportunities to supply large-scale infrastructure projects.

Vietnam: The Vietnam Cement Association (VCA) has urged the government to stop issuing licences for the construction of new cement plants. Capacity is currently projected to reach 121Mt/yr in 2023, 188% of an estimated consumption of 64.3Mt domestically this year.

VCA chair Nguyen Quang Cung said “We must be careful to maintain a balance between regional supply and demand. As a result of the severe overstock in the north, it is crucial to encourage cement producers in the south to spend more on increasing clinker production capacity." Cung added "This will minimise the environmental effects of shipping clinker between the north and south.”

Pakistan: Dandot Cement recorded a net loss after taxation of US$463,000 during the first six months of the 2023 financial year. This corresponds to a year-on-year rise of 8% from US$429,000 in the first half of the 2022 financial year. Its finance costs rose by 10% to US$437,000, while its administrative expenses fell by 18% to US$71,400.

The producer's 0.5Mt/yr Lahore cement plant closed in 2019 for a 'balancing, modernisation and replacement' upgrade. Dandot Cement says that the on-going project is on schedule for completion before the end of the current Pakistani financial year on 30 June 2023. The company anticipates a rise in domestic cement demand due to new infrastructure projects and the renovation of existing infrastructure. However, it noted several principal risks and uncertainties, namely rising coal, diesel and electricity prices, rising interest rates, currency devaluation and current overcapacity in the Pakistani cement industry.

Vietnam: New cement lines will raise Vietnamese cement production capacity by 4% year-on-year in 2023 to over 120Mt/yr. Vietnam News Summary has reported that upcoming new capacity scheduled to commence operations during the year include a 4.5Mt/yr line at a Xuan Tanh Cement plant and a 2.5Mt/yr line at a Long Son Cement plant.

Vietnamese cement demand was 65Mt in 2022. Several producers suspended cement lines during the second half of that year due to high costs and unfavourable market conditions.

Bangladesh: Crown Cement has estimated the total cost of cement capacity currently unused in Bangladesh at US$1.46bn. The figure is even higher when maintenance costs are included, according to Crown Cement's chief advisor Masud Khan. Over the past 15 years, national cement capacity has nearly quadrupled to 83.3Mt/yr from 22.4Mt/yr, while demand has merely doubled to 46.7Mt/yr from 22.8Mt/yr. Khan estimated the cost per 1Mt/yr of new Bangladeshi cement capacity over the period at US$40m.

Khan said that producers continue to anticipate an acceleration in local cement consumption growth in the medium-term future. Reflecting on the situation up to the end of 2022, he said "They thought if they were not prepared for the growing demand, they would lose their market share. That was why they continued expansion, bearing the burden of excess capacity." Khan forecast a further decline in the industry's capacity utilisation if gross domestic product undergoes a forecast drop during the 2023 financial year, impacting on producers' results for the year.

Pakistan: Thatta Cement recorded net sales of US$19.1m during its 2022 financial year, up by 75% year-on-year from US$10.9m in its 2021 financial year. This included gross export sales of just US$3160, down by 99% from US$394,000 in the 2021 financial year. Thatta Cement's total cost of sales increased by 96% to US$18.1m from US$9.24m. Its raw material costs tripled to US$1.64m from US$546,000, while its fuel and power costs more than doubled to US$12.5m from US$5.89m. As a result, the producer recorded a profit for the year of US$387,000, down by 68% year-on-year from US$1.19m.

Chair Khawaja Muhammad Salman Younis said "The company showed better performance during the year, despite the tough market conditions, coupled with significant challenges and uncertainties due to political instability and the Russian-Ukraine war. Due to these factors, Pakistan’s economy remained under pressure throughout the year. Other economic factors such as the rise in energy prices in local and international markets, significant currency depreciation and a sudden hike in interest rates severely affected the industry's, as well as the company’s, performance." Noting the 'changing and challenging economic environment,' Younis said that Thatta Cement 'remained successful in achieving budgetary targets in terms of volumes and retention price.' He added "Our sales and marketing team put extra efforts into identifying the needs of our valued customers and explored new markets for the company, despite severe competition in the cement industry."