Displaying items by tag: Overcapacity

Semen Indonesia’s third quarter results this week give us a reason to look at one of the world’s largest cement producing countries, Indonesia. As the local market leader, Semen Indonesia’s financial results have been positive so far in 2019 following its acquisition of Holcim Indonesia at the start of the year. Analysts at Fitch noted that gross margins for Semen Indonesia and its rival Indocement grew in the first half of 2019 as coal prices fell and cement sales prices rose.

Sales volumes, however tell a story of local production overcapacity and a move to exports. Domestic sales volumes fell by 2.05% year-on-year to 48.8Mt in the first nine months of 2019. Cement and clinker exports nearly compensated for this by rising by 15.4% to 4.8Mt. This is brisk growth but slower than the explosion of exports in 2018. Semen Indonesia’s local sales from its company before the acquisition fell faster than the national rate at 4.9% to 18.7Mt. The new sales from Solusi Bangun, the new name for Holcim Indonesia, partially alleviated this. It’s been a similar story for HeidelbergCement’s Indocement. Its sales revenue and income have risen so far in 2019. At the mid-year mark its sales volumes fell by 2.3% year-on-year to 29.4Mt.

Graph 1: Indonesian cement sales, January – September 2019. Source: Semen Indonesia.

Geographically, Indonesia Cement Association (ASI) data shows that over half of the country’s sales volumes (56%) were in Java in the first half of 2018. This was followed by Sumatra (22%), Sulawesi (8%), Kalimantan (also known as Indonesian Borneo, 6%), Bali-Nusa Tenggara (6%) and Maluku-Papua (2%). By cement type the market is dominated by bagged cement sales. It constituted 74% of sales in September 2019. The main producers have been keen to point out growth in bulk sales as its share has increased over the last decade.

Graph 2: Indonesian cement sales by type, 2010 – 2019. Source: Semen Indonesia/Indonesia Cement Association.

Previously the main story from the Indonesian market has been one of overcapacity and this has continued. It had a utilisation rate of 70% in 2018 from production volumes of 75.1Mt and a capacity of 110Mt, according to ASI data. This was likely to have been a major consideration in LafargeHolcim’s decision to leave the country and South-East Asia (see GCW379) with no end in sight to the situation in the short to medium term. At the end of 2018 it felt like consolidation was in progress following this sale and the reported sale of Semen Panasia. So far though this has been all and perhaps the upturn in the second quarter might buy the producers more time.

As mentioned at the start, another aspect of the Indonesian market deserving comment is that it is one of the first countries with a large cement sector where a Chinese company has made a significant entry. Conch Cement Indonesia, a subsidiary of China’s Anhui Conch, became the third largest producer following the acquisition of Holcim Indonesia. Semen Indonesia and Indocement control 70% of local installed capacity across both integrated and grinding plants with 51Mt/yr and 25.5Mt/yr respectively.

Conch Cement Indonesia is the next biggest with 8.7Mt from three integrated plants and a grinding unit. It’s in a tranche of three smaller producers locally, along with Semen Merah Putih and Semen Bosowa. Fitch also picked up on this in a research report on the cement sector published in August 2019. It pointed out that, although Holcim Indonesia and Indocement had gained pricing power through their leading market share, this is being eroded by local producers owned by Chinese companies.

Depending on how you look at it, Indonesia has the ‘fortune’ to be only the second largest producer in South-East Asia, after Vietnam. China, the world’s largest producer, is not too far away either. As can be seen above this can be a mixed blessing for local producers as the market changes. Overcapacity abounds, a major multinational has moved out, a local firm has consolidated the market as a result and Chinese influence grows steadily. Indonesia could well be an example of things to come for other markets.

Egypt: Medhat Istafanos, the head of the Cement Division at the Federation of Egyptian Industries (FEI), says that the market is only supporting 40% of local production. He blamed this on a slowdown in building activity and a lack of government-backed infrastructure projects to make up the shortfall, according to the Al-Ahram newspaper. Noha Bakr, an executive director at the cement division of the FEI, also blamed a construction ban on agricultural land.

The country’s 24 cement plants have a production capacity of 85Mt/yr but only 48Mt were sold in 2018. Cement sales have fallen since 2017 and are expected to reach 49Mt in 2019.

Producers are exploring options to increase cement exports. Walid Gamaleddin, the president of the Export Council for Building Materials and the Metallurgical Industries, has called for the government to support industry exports. The minister of trade and industry discussed a programme for cement-export subsidies with officials from the sector in late July 2019 that would include encouraging agreements to export cement to the African countries. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has also instructed the banking sector to support cement companies that needed to restructure their debts. The merger of smaller companies to form larger conglomerates has also been encouraged.

However, growing exports of Egyptian cement is challenged by its relative high cost compared to other countries. Istafanos said that Egyptian cement is US$12/t higher than its competitors.

Two new stories from Algeria this week highlight a changing industry. Firstly, Groupe Industriel des Ciments d’Algérie (GICA) started marketing cement from its new Sigus integrated plant. The unit was commissioned earlier in the year. Secondly, clinker export figures for the sector show 10-fold growth year-on-year to a value of US$30m for the first five months of 2019.

Graph 1: Cement production and capacity in Algeria, 2012 - 2018. Source: Algerian National Office of Statistics, United States Geological Survey, Global Cement Directory 2013 - 2019. Estimates supplied for 2017 and 2018.

Graph 1 above depicts the moment that lots of new production capacity started to be ordered and then commissioned in 2017. The Global Cement Directory lists new plant projects as they are announced so the trend from 2016 to 2017 may not be as pronounced as it seems but the general destination remains the same. A Ministry of Industry and Mining report estimated that production capacity would reach 40Mt/yr in 2020. Consumption was reported at 26Mt in 2016.

To cope with this the cement industry in Algeria has been moving towards an export model over the last few years. Industry and government figures started to warn of an end to imports in 2016. This quickly flipped to prognostications of production overcapacity in 2017. This then became a stream of news stories about export operations from the local industries to places like West Africa. One consequence of this were problems for foreign exporters in Tunisia and Spain, for example, as the Algerian market was shut off. Indeed, it must have been satisfying for state-producer and market leader GICA to announce that it was exporting cement to Europe in 2018!

Notably the local market has no cement grinding plants, yet this too has started to change. In May 2019 Algematco Steel ordered a modular Ready2Grind MVR vertical roller mill from Germany’s Gebr. Pfeiffer. Target markets for the exports identified by the Ministry of Industry and Mining included neighbouring Mali, Libya, Mauritania and Niger. However, only two of these countries are accessible by sea. Unfortunately, Libya’s resurgence in violence since April 2019 is unlikely to help the export market. The other countries share land borders with Algeria but no rail links. An overland export operation to Niger from a plant near Adrar was reported in early 2019 but feasibility on a large scale seems unlikely given the distances involved.

LafargeHolcim said in its 2018 financial report that its net sales were down in its Middle East and African region due to price pressure and lower volumes in oversupplied markets, particularly in Algeria, Iraq and Jordan. Bloomberg reported in February 2019 that LafargeHolcim was considering divesting assets in the region. However, LafargeHolcim’s exit from Southeast Asia may have since bought it some financial breathing room.

With Algeria facing a production capacity gap of at least 10Mt/yr it seems likely that foreign-backed producers like LafargeHolcim will suffer despite potential in the local economy. Nationally, the race is on to see if the industry can bring its cement to the sea and find new export markets.

Algeria: The value of clinker exports grew to US$30m in the first five months of 2019 from US$3.2m in the same period in 2018. The country is hoping to increase its exports of cement and clinker to around US$500m/yr by the mid-2020s, according to Télévision Algérienne. It is facing a significant production overcapacity with the manufacturing base expected to reach 40.6Mt/yr in 2020. Consumption was 26Mt in 2016.

Egypt: El Nahda Cement has suspended production at its 1.7Mt/yr plant at Quena for six months. It has taken the decision due to lower sales and increased supply in the local market, according to Mist News. The local industry has reported production overcapacity in recent years. In mid-2018 the 13Mt/yr government/army-run El-Arish Cement plant at Beni Suef was fully opened

China: The China Building Materials Federation has released plans to cut cement production capacity by 70Mt in 2019 as part of its efforts to reduce air pollution and increase industry efficiency through consolidation. Ideally the federation’s work plan wants the largest 50 national producers to cut all production lines with a capacity below 2000t/day and tp upgrade old technology on the remaining lines, according to Yicai Global. Typically larger cement production lines in the country manufacture 5000 – 7000t/day.

China produced 2.2Bnt of cement in 2018. The new work plan will order all cement companies to shut down production lines producing below 2000t/day in areas where pollution is high. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in northern China has been identified as one of these areas. The scheme also encourages industry consolidation, aiming to bring over 60% of national production to the top 10 cement makers, and wants to eliminate poor-quality cement products so that they make up less than half of all cement made. It wants to use mergers and restructuring to do this and it supports integration through cross shareholdings and asset exchanges.

The Malaysian Competition Commission took the rather ominous step this week of saying it was taking extra care to watch the cement industry. Ouch! It said that had taken note of recent price rises by both cement and concrete producers and that it was working with the Ministry of Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs as it met with the sector. It also said it was well aware of the recent merger between YTL and Lafarge, “...which had led to the market being more concentrated at the upstream and downstream level.”

The background here is that at least one unnamed cement producer announced a price hike of 40% in mid-June 2019. End-users panicked and the local press took up the story. The Cement and Concrete Association of Malaysia then defended price rises in general, when it was asked for comment, due to all sorts of mounting input costs. Although, to be fair, to the association the Malaysian Competition Commission acknowledged the price pressures the industry was under due to input costs in a report it issued in 2017.

Back in the present, the government became involved and Saifuddin Nasution Ismai, the head of the Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs Ministry, calmed the situation down by saying that producers had agreed not to raise their prices after all and that any future planned price adjustments would be ‘discussed’ with the authorities first. Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng then followed this up with calls for an investigation into prices in Sarawak state in Eastern Malaysia. In response, Suhadi Sulaiman, the chief executive officer (CEO) of CMS Cement, batted this straight back by blaming industry mergers in Peninsular Malaysia and saying the company had no plans ‘anytime soon’ to raise its prices.

As the Malaysian Competition Commission kindly pointed out, this entire furore took place about a month on from the competition of LafargeHolcim’s divestment of its local subsidiary to YTL. The commission agreed to the acquisition of Lafarge Malaysia by YTL knowing that it was giving YTL ownership of over half of the country’s production capacity. With this in mind it is unsurprising that the commission might have wanted to look tough in the face of even a whiff of market impropriety, whether it was real or not.

The problem, as the Malaysian Competition Commission alluded to in its statement, is that the local industry suffers from production overcapacity. On top of this local demand has been contracting since 2015. The country has 11 integrated cement plants with a production capacity of 27.1Mt/yr, according to Global Cement Directory 2019 data. Production hit a high of 24.7Mt in 2015 and then fell year-on-year to 18.8Mt in 2017. Data from the Cement and Concrete Association of Malaysia painted a worse picture taking into account both integrated and grinding capacity reporting an estimated production capacity utilisation rate of just 59% in 2016. Lafarge Malaysia reported a loss before tax of US$97.7m at the end of 2018 as well as declining revenue. Shortly thereafter it announced it was leaving the country, as well as neighbouring Singapore.

In theory the buyout by YTL should have been one step closer to solving Malaysia’s overcapacity woes as either it gained synergies through merging the companies or shut down some of its plants. Certainly, the system appears to be working at some level, as the proposed 40% price rise hasn’t happened. Yet, if the government is reacting to voters rather than the market it could prolong the capacity-demand gap indefinitely. Under these conditions LafargeHolcim’s decision to exit South-East Asia may prove prescient.

Egypt: Tourah Cement says it has stopped production due to a financial crisis caused by oversupply in the local market. Jose Maria Magrina, the managing director of Tourah Cement, told employees in mid-June 2019 that production would be stopped temporarily as it couldn’t cover its costs, according to Mist News. Estimated national cement consumption is 50Mt/yr but total production capcaity is 85Mt/yr.

In a statement the subsidiary of Germany’s HeidelbergCement said that new plants had forced producers to lower prices below the cost of production. It has also blamed higher fuel prices due to a cut in government subsidies.

The Gambia: Bai Lamin Jobe, the Minister of Trade, says that the country has a cement capacity utilisation rate of 23%. Local producers have a capacity of 1.9Mt/yr but national demand is only around 0.4Mt, according to the Foroyaa newspaper. He added that the country imported 0.39Mt in 2018 in answers to members of the National Assembly.

It was also revealed that Jah Multi Industries is building new silos at its import terminal. Jah Cement is also planning to upgrade its terminal into a grinding plant. Construction work started in 2018 and it is expected to be completed by late 2019.

Nepal: Dhruba Raj Thapa, president of Cement Manufacturer Association of Nepal (CMAN), has warned that the industry is worried about new investments in cement production given that the country has become self sufficient in the commodity. Clinker imports have stopped due to increased domestic production, according to the Republica newspaper. He added that cement produced locally is sufficient to meet local demand until 2029. He then warned that if investment in the sector continues producers might have to reduce their production capacity by half.

Data from the Department of Industries shows that 114 cement factories, both government-owned and private, have been registered so far with an estimated investment of over US$1.8bn. However, Tara Prasad Pokharel, the general secretary of CMAN, said that only 68 registered industries are currently in operation.