Displaying items by tag: Forecast

China: Tangshan Jidong Cement says that it expects its consolidated net profit to drop by up to 3.5% year-on-year to US$441m in 2021 from US$457m in 2021. Its full-year cement and clinker sales were 99.7Mt in 2021, down by 7% year-on-year.

Kazakhstan: Steppe Cement sold US$83.4m-worth of cement in 2021, up by 16% year-on-year from its US$71.7m-worth in 2020. Its sales volumes totalled 1.69Mt for the year, up by 2.4% from 1.65Mt in 2020. It exported 202,000t of cement, down by 57% from 86,500t. The company said that production limitations prevented it from fully meeting demand, and it concentrated on local markets. Regarding its outlook in 2022, Steppe Cement said “We have a healthy cash balance and are continuing our capital expenditure (CAPEX) programme to increase the production capacity of the company by 5% by mid-2022.”

Dow Jones Newswires has reported that Kazakhstan’s 2021 full-year cement consumption was 11.6Mt, up by 23% year-on-year from 9.4Mt in 2020. A rule change to pension withdrawals permitting allocations for home improvement and construction bolstered demand growth. Exports fell by 20% to 1.6Mt from 2Mt, while imports rose by 33% to 800,000t from 600,000t.

India: Axis Bank subsidiary Axis Securities has predicted a 4 – 6% year-on-year drop in Indian cement sales volumes during the third quarter of the 2022 financial year, which ended on 31 December 2021. The Hindu newspaper has reported the reasons for the predicted drop as extended monsoons, especially in the south of the country, and a construction ban in the National Capital Region due to pollution. Monthly sales grew slightly year-on-year in December 2021.

Axis Securities has also forecast a revival of demand in the fourth-quarter, driven by infrastructure and housing projects. Overall, it expects national demand for cement to grow by 8 – 9% in the 2022 financial year.

Taiwan: Zhang Anping, the chair of Taiwan Cement, has expressed doubts about the strength of the Chinese market in the short term. Whilst being interviewed by the state-owned Central News Agency at a community event, he said that increased raw material and energy prices looked set to remain high until at least mid-2022. The price of coal in China had more than tripled in 2021 before easing somewhat. He also raised the risks of growing global market uncertainty from an anticipated rise in interest rates in the US by the Federal Reserve and the spread of the Omicron variant of Covid-19.

Vietnam: Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) has forecast a 16% year-on-year rise in Vietnam’s cement and clinker exports to 44.5Mt from 38.4Mt. 22.3Mt (50%) of the 2021 exports will be to China. Viet Nam News has reported that VCBS forecast a drop in Vietnam’s cement and clinker exports to China in 2022 due to a Chinese property market slowdown. From 2023, the Vietnam government plans to raise its clinker export tariff to 10% from 5%.

India: Ratings agency Crisil has forecast 11 – 13% year-on-year growth of cement sales volumes in the 2021 financial year. The Press Trust of India has reported that the agency predicted that high demand and increased fuel costs would precipitate a rise in cement prices to record levels before April 2022.

In December 2021, petcoke prices rose by 80% year-on-year, while the price of imported coal had more than doubled. This has increased cement producers’ costs by 40%.

Japan: Sumitomo Osaka Cement recorded consolidated first-half sales of US$790m in its 2022 financial year, down by 20% from US$993m in the first half of the 2021 financial year. Its cement sales were US$544m, down by 31% from US$784m. It exported 778Mt of cement, up by 33% from 594Mt in the first half of the 2021 financial year. Its domestic sales volume was 4.1Mt, up by 1.2% from 4.05Mt.

The group forecast full-year consolidated sales of US$1.65bn, down by 22% year-on-year from US$2.12bn.

Ireland: CRH’s consolidated sales rose by 11% year-on-year to US$22.8bn in the first nine months of 2021, according to the group’s nine-month trading update. The company recorded earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of US$3.9bn, up by 15% year-on-year. CRH forecast a full-year EBITDA of US$5.25bn.

CRH said that it invested US$1.4bn in new acquisitions in the first nine months of 2021. It added that there remains a strong pipeline of opportunities open to it. At the end of the third quarter of 2021, the company had completed US$800m-worth of its share buyback programme.

Chief executive officer Albert Manifold said “CRH continues to perform well, with good underlying demand and pricing progress across our key markets. Our uniquely integrated and solutions-focused business model has supported further margin expansion across our businesses, while our strong cash generation and disciplined approach to capital allocation provides further opportunities to create value for all of our stakeholders.” He added “Looking ahead to the remainder of the year, we expect to deliver another record performance for the group.”

Italy: Buzzi Unicem’s consolidated sales rose by 5.6% year-on-year to US$2.54bn in the first nine months of 2021 from US$2.41bn in the first nine months of 2020. It recorded consolidated cement sales of 23.4Mt, up by 7.5% from 21.7Mt in the corresponding period of 2020. Sales growth in Eastern Europe - especially the Czech Republic and Poland - and the US offset a partial slowdown in Italy, particularly in the third quarter of the year.

The group expects global construction activity to generally remain level into the fourth quarter of 2021. It forecast “favourable” volume and price effects in its full-year results for 2021. It nonetheless noted “growing concern” at rising energy, fuels, logistics, raw materials and services costs in various regions. It forecast group recurring earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) not in excess of 2020 levels.

Ukraine: The Ukrainian cement association Ukrcement has forecast a 17% year-on-year rise in domestic cement consumption in 2021 from 9Mt in 2020. Business World Magazine has reported that demand previously exceeded 10Mt in 2014.

Association head Pavlo Kachur said that the Ukrainian cement industry operated at 66% capacity utilisation in the first nine months of 2021. He added “Therefore, we have room to grow.”