Displaying items by tag: Forecast

There has been good news from the German Cement Works Association (VDZ) this week. Following a strong start to the year, the association expects cement consumption in 2020 to remain similar to the level, 28.7Mt, reported in 2019. VDZ president Christian Knell acknowledged the difficulty in making forecasts, this year of all years, but said that the association remained positive since demand had held up so well. He noted the continued operation of construction sites, despite the local coronavirus-related lockdown from March 2020, and the ‘quick action’ of politicians.

Graph 1: German cement deliveries, 2015 – 2019: Source: German Cement Works Association (VDZ).

The year certainly started well, with a 33% year-on-year increase in domestic cement deliveries to 1.43Mt in January 2020 from 1.07Mt in January 2019. This was due in part to good weather, although it also looks good because 2019 started badly compared to 2018. Yet, the VDZ’s assessment has been supported by the results of the main producers operating in the country. HeidelbergCement reported that Germany bucked the trend of its Western and Southern Europe Group area in the first half of 2020 with a ‘positive market development’ whereas deliveries declined significantly everywhere else. Similarly, LafargeHolcim noted a ‘resilient’ performance in Germany. Buzzi Unicem released a more detailed assessment, with shipments of hydraulic binders down in April and May 2020 but then back up with a recovery in June 2020. Overall its cement plants reported a slight decline in sales for the first half of the year. Concrete production grew however, by 6% year-on-year, possibly aided by the plants that the group purchased in 2019.

Germany’s success appears to be down to two factors. The first, as Knell mentioned above, is that it was able to keep much of its construction industry open through its lockdown. Dieter Babiel, the head of Hauptverband der Deutschen Bauindustrie – the main German construction industry association - reckoned that the industry was operating at about 80% capacity in May 2020 compared to the situation in other large European countries like France, the UK, Spain and Italy where building sites totally closed at the height of local lockdowns before gradual reopening. Bauindustrie has since reported falling monthly order intake as coronavirus-effects on the general economy filter through to construction. The other reason is that the country has managed to control its outbreak better compared to other European countries. It has reported the third most cases in Europe but its fatality rate is only 4% compared to 14% in the UK, Italy and France. This has been attributed to strong public health measures and high levels of testing, particularly with respect to elderly residential care.

It’s not all plain sailing though since the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a 7.8% decline in Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020. Likewise, the VDZ is predicting weakening construction markets and cement demand in the fourth quarter of 2020. It cited falling orders and requests for building permits as mounting evidence for this trend. From here a gloomier outlook is foreseen for 2021 as construction budgets for commercial and government projects are cut. At the same time uncertainty in the labour market is expected to drag down the residential market. With this in mind the VDZ is predicting cement demand to drop by 3 – 5% in 2021.

To end on an upbeat note, if the VDZ’s forecasts are accurate, then the German cement sector looks like it might weather the coronavirus-downturn better than other industries. It knows a downturn in construction is coming and it can prepare for it.

Germany: The Verein Deutscher Zementwerke (VDZ) has forecast domestic cement consumption of 28.7Mt in 2020, consistent with the 2019 level. The impacts of the coronavirus lockdown were offset by “a good start to the year, not least due to the weather conditions” and “the continued operation of construction sites in March thanks to the quick actions of politicians.”

The organisation said that the situation was unprecedentedly unpredictable with orders and building permits currently in decline. It expects demand to partly tail off in the fourth quarter of 2020, falling by between 3 - 5%, as companies postpone or discard planned developments in the face of restricted budgets. It said, “Nonetheless, the government’s economic stimulus pacts will undoubtedly provide a positive impetus through such initiatives as public infrastructure and multi-family housing projects.

Austria: RHI Magnesita’s revenue from its cement and lime market fell by 12.1% year-on-year to Euro160m in the first half of 2020 from Euro182m in the same period of 2019. It said that the segment performed well in the first quarter of 2020 as producers maintained and repaired plants. Second quarter performance was negatively affected by coronavirus, “with a sharp contraction in demand in key end-markets, leading to reduced production and some temporary closures of cement plants in certain regions.” The group forecasts that its cement and lime segment will continue to follow the trend of the second quarter of 2020 although government stimulus projects, especially for infrastructure projects, may improve the situation.

Italy: Good performance in the US has helped Buzzi Unicem hold sales steady in the first half of 2020 despite falling sales volumes of cement, particularly in Italy and Eastern Europe, as the coronavirus pandemic spread. The group’s net sales remained stable at Euro1.52bn. Its cement sales volumes fell by 3.4% year-on-year to 13.4Mt from 13.9Mt in the same period in 2019. Concrete sales volumes decreased by 6.3% to 5.46Mm³ from 5.83Mm³. Its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose by 8.8% to Euro314m from Euro289m. The company said that the decline in sales volumes was counteracted by growing prices and lowered production costs.

In its outlook the group said, “The outlines of the pandemic, which in some countries has not yet reached the phase of controlled circulation, as well as the intensity of global recession and the demand for building materials may be characterized by further sudden developments in the coming months. Visibility for the second half of the year continues to be very limited and our forecasts are based on a scenario of gradual mitigation of the infections and related restrictions on economic activity, in the geographical areas where the group operates.” It added that it expected its recurring EBTIDA to possibly fall by 5 – 10% year-on-year in 2020.

India: India Ratings and Research has forecast a drop of cement demand of 10 – 15% in the 2021 financial year due to coronavirus lockdowns in some states and flooding in eastern and central regions in the second quarter, according to the Economic Times newspaper. The research report attributed this to oversupply of cement in eastern regions. It also added that companies with more rural markets were likely to benefit from a quicker recovery.

China: Dongwu Cement has predicted a net profit of US$1.71m in the first half of 2020, down by 62% year-on-year from US$4.56m in the first half of 2019. Company chairman Liu Dong said the expected decrease was “primarily attributable to a decline in sales volume and sales price of the group’s products resulting from the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic during the period.”

China: Asia Cement China has estimated a 40% - 45% year-on-year decline in profit in 2020 due to lower sales volumes and selling prices. Dow Jones Newswires has reported that this is due to the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak on cement demand outside of China. The company is active in several countries including Thailand, Taiwan and South Korea.

Egypt: Suez Cement has recorded a loss of US$18.0m in the first three months of 2020, compared to a profit of US$11.0m in the first three months of 2019. Sales fell by 27% year-on-year to US$80.6m from US$110m in 2019. Domestic demand in relation to Egypt’s production overcapacity fell in March 2020 due to the coronavirus outbreak. Daily News Egypt has reported that the second quarter 2020 results will carry greater losses for Suez Cement due to coronavirus lockdown measures and seasonal factors such as Ramadan, with cement volumes down by 27% year-on-year in May 2020.

Australia: James Hardie has revised its guidance for the quarter ending 30 June 2020, the fourth quarter of the Australian fiscal year 2020, following “improved housing market activity, particularly in North America.” Australian Associated Press – Financial News has reported that James Hardie has revised its North American fibre cement boards volumes growth estimate to 1% year-on-year from a 3% drop previously. It expects Australian volumes to remain constant year-on-year, as previously predicted, and European volumes in the quarter to fall by 13%, rather than by 16%.

The Construction Products Association (CPA) has just forecast a 25% drop in construction output for 2020 in the UK due to Covid-19. And this is the optimistic prediction! It blamed the decline, which is said to be the sharpest ever recorded, on the country’s coronavirus-related lockdown. 60% of planned construction output was lost in April 2020 due to social distancing measures. This compares to a 6.5% decline in gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2020 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April 2020 for the UK. OneStone Consulting’s Joe Harder in his Covid-19 Impact Analysis CIC 2025 report has forecast a 12.7% decrease in European cement production. Readers should keep in mind that construction output, GDP and cement production are all connected but not necessarily directly related.

Further details of note from the CPA include a direct link between the strength of lockdown measures and work lost, as well as differences between types of activity. So, for example, more construction output (in percentage terms) was reported lost in Scotland, where tighter lockdown measures were implemented. On the latter point, more output was lost in residential construction compared to non-residential with a similar trend reported in the repair, maintenance and improvement sector, again worsened in the residential part of this market. The sector that suffered the least was non-residential repair and maintenance as work on, currently, mostly deserted buildings and infrastructure was prioritised. One example of this may have been Aggregate Industries, the UK subsidiary of LafargeHolcim, which said this week that it had completed major works on the A14, a major regional trunk road, ahead of schedule. It didn’t directly make the link in its press release but quiet roads would have helped.

The CPA is touting the now-familiar range of letter-shaped economic recession shapes in the report, including ‘V’, ‘W’ and the dreaded ‘U’. However, the CPA’s Economics Director Noble Francis was more confident that infrastructure projects would bounce back fastest due to favourable investment cycles in utilities, government support for its high-speed railway scheme HS2 and, “greater ability to implement safe distancing for workers on larger sites.”

That last point ties in nicely with the operational guidance that the Mineral Product Association (MPA), the UK’s trade association for the heavy building material sector in the UK, released last week. This is all crucial information on a comprehensive and detailed scale along the lines released in other countries.

Much of this will be becoming second nature to cement industry workers and/or will be familiar to anyone who has watched US consultant John Kline discuss these issues on Global Cement Live. Yet there are some points worth discussing here such as ‘Avoid Distraction.’ This one’s all about remembering to keep in mind existing health and safety practices alongside all the coronavirus-related ones. All the usual health and safety regulations and advice remain in place and in some ways become even more important as there may be fewer staff working on socially-distanced sites, or first responders may be otherwise busy elsewhere. Another point from the MPA’s guidance is to ‘Provide More Time,’ which acknowledges that working with coronavirus measures will require more time. Other implications from a business changed by coronavirus are things like notifying the police when sites are closed and considering further security for such sites to minimise risk of theft. A lot of this stuff seems obvious but it’s easy to miss things.

For a recent review of the UK cement industry readers should refer to Edwin Trout’s feature in the June 2020 issue of Global Cement Magazine. One change since it was published has been Cemex’s proposal to mothball its 0.8Mt/yr South Ferriby integrated plant in Lincolnshire. The cement producer says it is not related to coronavirus but if the CPA’s predictions are accurate then it will make it that much harder to keep the plant open.

Everyone’s hoping for a ‘V’ shaped recovery from the coronavirus downturn in the UK and everywhere else around the world. Boots on the ground operating advice like that issued by the MPA and others is part of how the construction materials industries can work towards achieving this.