Displaying items by tag: Forecast

Cement consumption data for the first half of 2025 from Russia has been released this week and it is down from 2024. Added to this, Cemros announced earlier in July 2025 that it is preparing to suspend production at its Belgorod cement plant. What can these and other news stories tell us about the state of the Russian cement sector at present?

Graph 1: Cement consumption in Russia, 2019 - H1 2025. Source: Soyuzcement.

Figures from Soyuzcement, the Union of Cement Producers, in the local press reports that consumption fell by 8.6% year-on-year to 27.2Mt in the first half of 2025 from 28.4Mt in the same period in 2024. By region the largest declines were noted in the south (-14%), the Urals (-13%) and in Siberia (-11%). Producer Sibcem released some production data for the first half, also this week, and this reflected the national picture, with a 9% fall.

The national situation has been blamed on a suspension of infrastructure projects, a fall in the domestic building sector and mounting imports. Imports rose by 5.8% to 1.9Mt. Notably those trade flows have been coming in from other countries with restricted access to international markets such as Belarus and Iran. A China-based company Jinyu Jidong Cement in the far-eastern Heilongjiang Province also started exporting cement to Russia in July 2025. Unusually though, for these kinds of stories, exports from Russia have also risen. They grew by 9% to 0.5Mt, mainly to Kazakhstan. The general picture fits with Soyuzcement’s updated forecast for the local market from 2025 to 2027. It expects a decline of 6 - 12% in 2025 as a whole, followed by a change of -6% to +1% in 2026 and then the start of a recovery in 2027 under most scenarios.

One reaction to the shrinking market became apparent earlier in July 2025 when Cemros said it was preparing to suspend production at its Belgorod cement plant. The company plans to use the stoppage to assess the market, reduce its operating costs and consider market diversification options. It blamed the decision on a decrease in demand in the domestic market in Russia along with lower profits and higher imports. Back in May 2025, Cemros, the leading Russia-based cement producer, said that it had 18 plants, a total production capacity of 33Mt/yr and a 31% share of the local market. It also reported that it had two mothballed plants: the Savinsky cement plant in Arkhangelsk and the Zhigulovskiye plant in the Samara region. Although, to be fair to Cemros, up until fairly recently it had been spending money on its plants. It resumed clinker production in mid-2024 when it restarted one production line at its Ulyanovsk plant in mid-2024. Then in May 2025 it said it was getting ready to restart the second line at the site too as part of a €8m renovation project. Once back online the unit will have a total production capacity of 0.8Mt/yr. Another recent plant project by Cemros was the upgrade of a kiln at Katavsky Cement that was completed in June 2025. Elsewhere, Kavkazcement was reportedly planning to invest US$224m on equipment upgrades in April 2025 in response to a large rise in production costs in 2024.

The larger problem facing the Russian construction industry and the building material producers that supply it is the ongoing economic fallout from the war in Ukraine. The head of the country’s national bank said at the start of July 2025 that the nation had broadly adapted to economic sanctions and that inflation was slowing down. Growing cement demand since 2021 broadly supports this view. Yet, governor Elvira Nabiullina warned of further market turmoil ahead due to a slowing economy and high labour costs. This spells uncertainty for the cement sector as underlined by Soyuzcement’s gloomy forecasts for 2025 and 2026. In this kind of environment market mergers and acquisitions seem likely but international sanctions may limit the options. One general remedy the government has been advocating for has been the formation of a common commodities exchange for the Eurasian Economic Union that was suggested in late 2024. However, Soyuzcement has been lobbying against the proposal on the grounds of price volatility, increased competition and a reluctance by producers to join it. The cement sector in Russia faces challenging times ahead.

India: Management guidance for Indian cement demand growth in the 2026 financial year for ‘most companies’ in the sector was 6 – 7% year-on-year.

In the 2025 financial year, UltraTech Cement and JK Cement raised their cement sales volumes by 17% and 15% year-on-year respectively, due to to demand recovery and the effects of new acquisitions. Ambuja Cement’s volumes grew by 13%, while Dalmia Cement Bharat’s fell by 2% and Ramco Cements’ by 5%.

The Business Standard newspaper has reported that the all-India cement capacity ended the 2025 financial year at 655Mt/yr, up by 5% year-on-year. 60Mt/yr-worth of new cement production capacity is due to come online later in the 2026 financial year, which would increase that figure by a further 9%.

Japan: Sumitomo Osaka Cement's sales declined by 0.8% year-on-year to US$1.09bn in the first nine months of the 2025 financial year. Nonetheless, the producer succeeded in raising its pre-tax profit, by 16%, to US$44.9m. The company forecasts full-year sales of US$1.47bn (up by 0.6%) and profit of US$54.4m (down by 2%), maintaining previous estimates.

Global: The World Cement Association (WCA) projects a 22% decline in global cement demand by 2050. Price increases are expected to continue in European and North American markets, while significant market restructuring is already underway to address overcapacity in China and Japan. Multinational companies are scaling back cement business and focusing instead on North America, while cement production in Europe continues to decline due to strict CO₂ regulations and capacity reductions.

India's cement production has surpassed 200Mt/yr, with domestic firms strengthening their position as multinationals exit the market. Chinese producers are expanding their presence, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia.

WCA president Wei Rushan said “To remain both profitable and environmentally responsible, the cement industry must aim to reduce capacity by 50%, from 4.7Bnt/yr to 2.3Bnt/yr within the next decade. This requires focusing on modern, sustainable production units.”

Pakistan: Attock Cement expects that its cement despatches will decline by 10% year-on-year in the 2025 financial year. During a corporate briefing it revealed that local despatches of cement had fallen by 20% year-on-year to 7.91Mt in the first quarter to 30 September 2024 from 9.87Mt in the same period in 2023, according to the Pakistan Press International news agency. The decrease was more pronounced in the south of the country than the north. Despite this, exports grew by 22% to 2.14Mt. The company’s turnover and profit also fell during the reporting period.

The company is currently investing US$4.5m in a 4.8MW wind power unit. The project is intended to reduce the company’s reliance on the local electricity grid and reduce power costs generally. It is expected to become operational from January 2025. The cement producer is also planning to increase its usage of alternative fuels to further bring down production costs.

India: The cement sector in India is forecast to reach a market size of 509Mt/yr by the 2029 financial year. A report published by Infomerics Ratings made the prediction based on a market size of 382Mt in the 2023 financial year and a compound annual growth rate of 4.9%. The credit agency noted the cement sector’s mean growth rate of 5.37% over the last decade and the low cement consumption per capita compared to the global average. It also pointed out that the local cement sector “…faced significant pricing challenges, primarily due to weak demand across various regions.” Demand was reportedly low during the first half of the 2025 financial year leading to lower prices particularly in the south of the country.

One unusual thing about coverage of cement in the media is the way that discussions often centre precisely on its absence – that is, on alternatives to cement. These alternatives boast unique chemistries and performance characteristics, but are all produced without Portland cement clinker. They are generally called ‘alternative cements,’ perhaps because ‘cement-free cement’ does not have such a commercially viable ring to it. This contradictory tendency reached a new high in the past week, with developments in alternative cement across Asia, Europe, the Middle East and North America. Together, they hint at a more diverse future for the ‘cement’ industry than the one we know today.

Asia

In Indonesia, Suvo Strategic Minerals has concluded tests with Makassar State University of a novel nickel-slag-based cement. Huadi Nickel-Alloy Indonesia supplied raw materials, and tests showed a seven-day compressive strength of 37.5MPa. Suvo Strategic Minerals says that a partnership with Huadi Nickel-Alloy Indonesia for commercial production is a likely next step.

Europe

Cement producer Mannok and minerals company Boliden partnered with the South Eastern Applied Materials (SEAM) research centre in Ireland to launch a project to develop supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) from shale on 7 October 2024. The project will additionally investigate CO₂-curing of cement paste backfill for use in mines. Irish state-owned global commerce agency Enterprise Ireland has contributed €700,000 in funding.

UK-based SCM developer Karbonite expects to launch trial production of its olivine-based SCM with a concrete company in 2025. The start-up launched Karbonite Group Holding BV, with offices in the Netherlands, to facilitate this new phase. Karbonite’s SCM is activated at 750 – 850°C and sequesters CO₂ in the activation process, resulting in over 56% lower CO₂ emissions than ordinary Portland cement (OPC). Managing director Rajeev Sood told Global Cement that talks are already underway for subsequent expansions into the UAE and India.

Back in the UK, contractor John Sisk & Son has received €597,000 from national innovation agency Innovate UK. John Sisk & Son is testing fellow Ireland-based company Ecocem’s <25% clinker cement technology in concrete for use in its on-going construction of the Wembley Park mixed development in London.

At the same time, Innovate UK granted a further €3.23m to other companies for concrete decarbonisation. Recipients included a calcined clay being developed by Cemcor, an SCM being developed from electric arc furnace byproducts by Cocoon, a geopolymer cement technology being developed by EFC Green Concrete Technology UK and an initiative to develop alternative cement from recycled concrete fines at the Materials Processing Institute in Middlesbrough. Also included was the Skanska Costain Strabag joint venture, which is working on the London stretch of the upcoming HS2 railway. The joint venture, along with partners including cement producer Tarmac and construction chemicals company Sika UK, will test low-kaolinite London clay as a raw material with which to produce calcined clay as a cement substitute in concrete structures in HS2’s rail tunnels.

Middle East

Talks are underway between UK-based calcined clay producer Next Generation SCM and City Cement subsidiary Nizak Mining Company over the possible launch of a joint venture in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The joint venture would build a 350,000t/yr reduced-CO₂ concrete plant, which would use alternative cement based on Next Generation SCM’s calcined clay.

North America

Texas-based SCM developer Solidia Technologies recently patented its carbonatable calcium silicate-based alternative cement, which sequesters CO₂ as it cures.

Meanwhile, C-Crete Technologies made its first commercial pour of its granite-based cement-free concrete in New York, US. C-Crete Technologies says that the product offers cost and performance parity with conventional cement, with net zero CO₂ emissions. Its raw material is globally more abundant than the limestone used as a raw material for clinker. Other abundantly available feedstocks successfully deployed within C-Crete Technologies’ repertoire include basalt and zeolite.

Across New York State, in Binghamton, KLAW Industries has succeeded in replacing 20% of concrete’s cement content with its powdered glass-based SCM, Pantheon. KLAW Industries has delivered samples to local municipalities and the New York State Department of Transportation. Its success expands the discussion of possible circular cement ingredients from the industrial sphere into post-consumer resources.

In Calgary, Canada, a novel SCM has drawn attention from one of the major cement incumbents: Germany-based Heidelberg Materials. It invested in local construction and demolition materials (CDM)-based SCM developer EnviCore on 9 October 2024. The companies plan to build a pilot plant at an existing Heidelberg Materials CDM recycling centre.

Conclusion

Alternative cement developers are still finding the words to talk about their products. They may be more than ‘supplementary’ up to the point of entirely supplanting 100% of clinker. Product webpages offer ‘hydraulic binder,’ ‘pozzolan’ and even ‘cement.’ As alternative ‘cements’ are developed, they build on the work of pioneers like Joseph Aspdin and Louis Vicat. Start-ups and their backers are now reaching commercial offerings, on a similar-but-different footing to cement itself. None of these novel materials positions itself as the sole, last-minute ‘super sub’ in the construction sector’s confrontation with climate change. Rather, they are a package of solutions which can combine into a net zero-emissions heavy building materials offering, hopefully before 2050.

Related to this is the need for ‘technology neutral’ standards, as championed this week by the Alliance for Low-Carbon Cement and Concrete (ALCCC), along with 23 other European industry associations, civil society organisations and think tanks. The term may sound new, but the concept is critical to the eventual uptake of alternative cements: standards, the ALCCC says, should be purely performance-based. They ought not attempt to define what technology, for example cement clinker, makes a suitable building material. According to the ALCCC, Europe’s building materials standards are not technology neutral, but instead ‘gatekeep’ market access, to the benefit of conventional cement and the exclusion of ‘proven and scalable low-carbon products.’

At the same time, cement itself is changing. Market research from USD Analytics showed an anticipated 5% composite annual growth rate in blended cement sales between 2024 and 2032, more than doubling throughout the period from US$253bn to US$369bn. If you can’t beat it, blend with it!

For a further discussion of alternative cement and binders in Europe, see Global Cement’s interview with ALCCC co-ordinator Joren Verschaeve in the forthcoming November issue of Global Cement Magazine on 17 October 2024.

India: Cement volumes in India are projected to rise by 7-8% year-on-year in the 2025 financial year, driven by sustained demand from the infrastructure and housing sectors. This forecast is supported by the government's focus on infrastructure projects, sanction of additional houses and industrial capital expenditure, according to a report by the credit rating agency ICRA.

The Indo-Asian News Service reports that capacity addition in the cement industry is estimated at 63-70Mt between FY25 and FY26, with approximately 33-35Mt expected in FY25 alone. The capacity utilisation is expected to rise to 71% in FY25 from 70% in FY24, backed by higher cement volumes.

China: Beijing-based China National Building Material (CNBM) anticipates its first-quarter losses to increase by more than 50% to US$180m, up from US$72.6m in 2023. The company attributes the increased losses to lower selling prices for its key products, worsening performance of associates, and higher currency losses, despite a decrease in cost of sales. Following a meeting with CNBM, Citi analysts reported a 10% year-on-year fall in demand for the cement sector in the first quarter of 2024, with a forecasted full-year decline of 3%-5%.

World: Investment firm Insight Partners has forecast a composite annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.3% in the global green cement and concrete market between 2023 and 2030. This will result in a total value of US$990m in 2030, compared to US$806m in 2023. Regionally, the firm expects the sharpest growth in South and Central America, with a CAGR of 10% to US$7.9m in 2030. North America is expected to grow at a rate of 5.4% annually, to US$190m, followed by Europe, at 4.5% to US$226m, Middle East and Africa, at 2.9% to US$13m, and Asia-Pacific, at 1.4% to US$553m. In 2023, Asia-Pacific commanded a 61% share of the global market. Europe’s share was 20% and that of North America was 16%.